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  • Obtain Estimates of Quarter Relatives For These Data: Year Sales 10 3

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    Islam Fouad
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    The document provides sales data over 16 quarters and analyzes the data to estimate seasonal factors and remove seasonality. It calculates a 4-quarter moving average to estimate the trend-cycle component (TC) and divides actual sales by TC to estimate seasonal factors for each quarter. It then removes seasonality effects to view the data without seasonal fluctuations. Finally, it performs trend forecasting by extending the linear trend line to forecast sales in the 5th year.

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    seasonality forecasting

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    The document provides sales data over 16 quarters and analyzes the data to estimate seasonal factors and remove seasonality. It calculates a 4-quarter moving average to estimate the trend-cycle component (TC) and divides actual sales by TC to estimate seasonal factors for each quarter. It then removes seasonality effects to view the data without seasonal fluctuations. Finally, it performs trend forecasting by extending the linear trend line to forecast sales in the 5th year.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    20 views9 pages

    Obtain Estimates of Quarter Relatives For These Data: Year Sales 10 3

    Uploaded by

    Islam Fouad
    The document provides sales data over 16 quarters and analyzes the data to estimate seasonal factors and remove seasonality. It calculates a 4-quarter moving average to estimate the trend-cycle component (TC) and divides actual sales by TC to estimate seasonal factors for each quarter. It then removes seasonality effects to view the data without seasonal fluctuations. Finally, it performs trend forecasting by extending the linear trend line to forecast sales in the 5th year.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 9

    Obtain estimates of quarter relatives for these data

    Year
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16

    Sales*10^3
    4.8
    4.1
    6
    6.5
    5.8
    5.2
    6.8
    7.4
    6
    5.6
    7.5
    7.8
    6.3
    5.9
    8
    8.4

    Actual sales Y=TCRS


    9

    8
    7
    6
    5
    Actual sales

    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    Sales

    4.8

    4.1

    6.5

    Seasonal
    Random
    Component

    Quarter

    SR=Y/TC
    Centered
    MA

    Year

    TC
    Four
    Quarter
    MA

    5.35
    5.475

    1.096

    5.738

    1.133

    5.975

    0.971

    6.188

    0.84

    6.325

    1.075

    6.4

    1.156

    6.538

    0.918

    6.675

    0.839

    6.763

    1.109

    6.838

    1.141

    6.938

    0.908

    7.075

    0.834

    5.6
    5.875
    2

    5.8
    6.075

    5.2
    6.3

    6.8

    7.4

    6.35
    6.45
    3

    6.625
    2

    5.6
    6.725

    7.5
    6.8

    7.8

    6.3

    5.9

    6.875
    4

    7
    7.15
    3

    8.4

    Sales with seasonality Effect


    9
    8
    7
    6

    Sales

    5
    sales

    2MA
    3
    2
    1
    0
    0

    10

    Time

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Quarter

    SR=Y/TC

    .971, .918, .908

    0.93

    .84, .839, .834

    0.84

    1.096, 1.075, 1.109

    1.09

    1.133, 1.156, 1.141

    1.14

    Year
    1

    Quarter
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4

    Sales
    4.8
    4.1
    6
    6.5
    5.8
    5.2
    6.8
    7.4
    6
    5.6
    7.5
    7.8
    6.3
    5.9
    8
    8.4

    0.93
    0.84
    1.09
    1.14
    0.93
    0.84
    1.09
    1.14
    0.93
    0.84
    1.09
    1.14
    0.93
    0.84
    1.09
    1.14

    5.16
    4.88
    5.5
    5.7
    6.24
    6.19
    6.24
    6.49
    6.45
    6.67
    6.88
    6.84
    6.77
    7.02
    7.34
    7.37

    sales

    Y/S=TCR
    Deseasonalized

    S
    Seasonal
    Factor

    Totals

    t
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    136

    T=5.101+.148t

    T=Y/s
    5.16
    4.88
    5.5
    5.7
    6.24
    6.19
    6.24
    6.49
    6.45
    6.67
    6.88
    6.84
    6.77
    7.02
    7.34
    7.37
    101.74

    t*Y/s
    5.16
    9.76
    16.5
    22.8
    31.2
    37.14
    43.68
    51.92
    58.05
    66.7
    75.68
    82.08
    88.01
    98.28
    110.1
    117.92
    914.98

    t2
    1
    4
    9
    16
    25
    36
    49
    64
    81
    100
    121
    144
    169
    196
    225
    256
    1496

    Sales without seasonality effect

    8
    7
    6
    5

    Sales without
    seasonality effect

    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    0

    10

    15

    20

    T17=5.101+.148*17=7.617

    Year

    Quarter

    Trend forecasting

    T=Y/s

    Y=Y/S *S

    7.617

    0.93

    7.08381

    7.765

    0.84

    6.5226

    7.913

    1.09

    8.62517

    8.061

    1.14

    9.18954

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