A1 TANPA EFEK MUSIMAN

Tahun

2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan

Xt

St

36

II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

38.000
38.600
40.880
40.504
41.803
43.643
46.514
46.611
48.089
50.071
53.657
54.126
55.900
58.920
62.536
61.829
62.063
64.251
68.400
67.920

Ft+m

38.000
38.600
40.880
40.504
41.803
43.643
46.514
46.611
48.089
50.071
53.657
54.126
55.900
58.920
62.536
61.829
62.063
64.251
68.400

PE

0.059
0.182
-0.039
0.111
0.144
0.198
0.008
0.109
0.137
0.211
0.033
0.113
0.170
0.188
-0.048
0.015
0.120
0.195
-0.029
MAPE

Abs PE

0.059
0.182
0.039
0.111
0.144
0.198
0.008
0.109
0.137
0.211
0.033
0.113
0.170
0.188
0.048
0.015
0.120
0.195
0.029

Stat U

-43.221
-59.979
-29.610
-55.569
-54.412
-65.049
-37.283
-61.019
-61.369
-78.799
-45.322
-69.877
-79.081
-82.626
-44.405
-66.219
-83.567
-98.036
-50.448

0.111 -1,165.890

Stat U

Maka metode naive akan memberikan hasil yang lebih baik d

-36.921
-39.780
-49.220
-37.795
-45.915
-49.863
-57.190
-45.851
-52.926
-56.828
-67.176
-54.875
-61.873
-69.915
-76.234
-57.932
-61.841
-71.836
-84.224
-1,078.195

1.040

hasil yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan teknik klasifikasi Pegel's yang tidak ada kecende

ang tidak ada kecenderungan dan efek musiman.

A2 TIDAK ADA KECENDERUNGAN DAN BERSIFAT ADITIF

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt

Ct
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

P
0.935
1.013
1.117
0.883
0.842
1.172
1.956
0.693
1.333
1.858
3.002
0.751
1.888
2.581
4.289
1.000
2.556
3.700
5.527
0.814
2.603
4.446
6.938
0.800

37.06
39.99
48.88
38.12
46.16
49.83
56.04
46.31
52.67
56.14
65.00
55.25
61.11
68.42
72.71
58.00
60.44
69.30
79.47
65.19

St

38
38.3974
40.49455
40.01901
41.2469
42.96313
45.57936
45.7249
47.11338
48.91902
52.13477
52.75759
54.42845
57.22662
60.32359
59.85882
59.97577
61.84062
65.36703
65.33076

Ft+m

39.013
39.514
41.378
40.861
42.419
44.919
46.272
47.058
48.972
51.921
52.886
54.646
57.009
61.515
61.324
62.415
63.676
67.368
66.181

PE

0.048464
0.209714
-0.06097
0.130626
0.168258
0.225537
0.015484
0.128563
0.155658
0.236452
0.055609
0.132608
0.197054
0.201102
-0.03939
0.009281
0.12773
0.207436
-0.00275
MAPE

T ADITIF

Stat U

Abs PE

Maka metode naive akan memberikan hasil yang lebih baik dibandin

0.048464
0.209714
0.060966
0.130626
0.168258
0.225537
0.015484
0.128563
0.155658
0.236452
0.055609
0.132608
0.197054
0.201102
0.039387
0.009281
0.12773
0.207436
0.002748

-43.2102
-60.0118
-29.5924
-55.5933
-54.4379
-65.08
-37.2884
-61.0413
-61.3894
-78.8289
-45.3399
-69.8992
-79.111
-82.6406
-44.4114
-66.2133
-83.5766
-98.0498
-50.4685

-36.9211
-39.7805
-49.22
-37.7949
-45.9149
-49.8627
-57.1897
-45.8511 1.040004
-52.9259
-56.8276
-67.1765
-54.875
-61.873
-69.9155
-76.2338
-57.9322
-61.8413
-71.8356
-84.2235

0.123825

-1166.18

-1078.19

rikan hasil yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan teknik klasifikasi Pegel's yang tidak ada kecenderungan dan bersifat aditif.

dan bersifat aditif.

A3 TIDAK ADA KECENDERUNGAN DAN BERSIFAT MULTIPLIKATIF

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

Dt
0.947
1.026
1.132
0.895
0.950
1.028
1.140
0.899
0.961
1.037
1.149
0.906
0.971
1.046
1.160
0.916
0.981
1.057
1.169
0.919
0.984
1.064
1.178
0.925

St

Ft+m

38
38.4
38.69366
39.72986
40.45941
42.15325
43.55431
44.93731
46.32029
48.18058
49.63669
51.43097
53.37795
55.54228
57.86294
59.46655
60.40807
61.1262
62.6196
64.5244

39
43.45263
34.62065
37.74337
41.60787
48.03827
39.15887
43.16601
48.05543
55.36975
44.99181
49.93142
55.82143
64.44294
52.97603
58.35539
63.87569
71.44273
57.57082
MAPE

Abs PE

4.88%
13.09%
11.23%
19.69%
18.42%
17.18%
16.68%
20.06%
17.15%
18.57%
19.66%
20.74%
21.38%
16.31%
10.21%
7.37%
12.50%
15.95%
12.77%
15.47%

Stat U

-43.2105
-59.9158
-29.7276
-55.6732
-54.4552
-65.0189
-37.4111
-61.1241
-61.4064
-78.7695
-45.456
-69.9834
-79.1298
-82.5994
-44.5198
-66.2821
-83.5734
-97.9939
-50.5698
-1166.82
1.04

Stat U

Maka metode naive akan memberikan hasil yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan teknik klasifikasi Peg

-36.9211
-39.7805
-49.22
-37.7949
-45.9149
-49.8627
-57.1897
-45.8511
-52.9259
-56.8276
-67.1765
-54.875
-61.873
-69.9155
-76.2338
-57.9322
-61.8413
-71.8356
-84.2235
-1078.19
1.04

gkan dengan teknik klasifikasi Pegel's yang tidak ada kecenderungan dan bersifat multiplikatif.

B1. Efek Kecenderungan Bersifat Aditif Tanpa Efek Musiman

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt

St
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

38.00000
39.40000
41.70400
41.36408
42.48215
44.27434
47.17083
47.38200
48.74458
50.70817
54.33375
54.97210
56.65621
59.66676
63.38701
62.83006
62.84833
64.87871
69.06540
68.80188

At

1.00000
0.23000
0.25110
-0.01139
0.11078
0.18919
0.30668
0.04872
0.14064
0.20902
0.38137
0.09816
0.17724
0.31701
0.40056
-0.01965
0.00006
0.20304
0.43694
0.01297

Ft+m

PE

39.00000
39.63000
41.95510
41.35269
42.59293
44.46353
47.47750
47.43072
48.88522
50.91719
54.71512
55.07026
56.83345
59.98377
63.78757
62.81041
62.84839
65.08175
69.50235

0.04878
0.20740
-0.07577
0.12016
0.16484
0.23339
-0.01016
0.12165
0.15715
0.25122
0.02294
0.12587
0.19953
0.22099
-0.08115
0.00301
0.13906
0.23433
-0.05307
MAPE

Abs PE

0.04878
0.20740
0.07577
0.12016
0.16484
0.23339
0.01016
0.12165
0.15715
0.25122
0.02294
0.12587
0.19953
0.22099
0.08115
0.00301
0.13906
0.23433
0.05307
0.13002

Efek Musiman
Stat U

-43.21053
-60.00902
-29.58090
-55.58070
-54.43419
-65.08895
-37.26763
-61.03339
-61.39101
-78.84626
-45.31301
-69.89160
-79.11375
-82.66220
-44.37938
-66.20660
-83.58971
-98.08107
-50.42938
-1,166.10930

-36.92105
-39.78049
-49.22000
-37.79487
-45.91489
-49.86275
-57.18966
-45.85106 1.03997
-52.92593
-56.82759
-67.17647
-54.87500
-61.87302
-69.91549
-76.23377
-57.93220
-61.84127
-71.83562
-84.22353
-1,078.19465

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00

Xt
36.00
39.00
43.00
34.00
38.00
41.00
50.00
39.00
47.00
51.00
58.00
47.00
54.00
58.00
68.00
56.00
63.00
71.00
77.00
59.00
63.00
73.00
85.00
66.00

Ct
0.935
1.013
1.117
0.883
0.842
1.092
1.810
0.481
1.076
1.487
2.529
0.168
1.230
1.786
3.368
-0.066
1.388
2.376
4.049
-0.844
0.827
2.517
4.854
-1.479

At

St

1
1.01974
1.19306
1.092529
1.151086
1.249901
1.429592
1.351335
1.389808
1.464561
1.674238
1.615714
1.655346
1.802814
1.973104
1.77855
1.638248
1.673484
1.874749
1.716129

38
39.1974
41.95034
42.13809
43.81619
45.95543
49.00223
49.64926
51.38532
53.52266
57.08399
58.17299
60.18503
63.31506
66.82077
66.84832
67.22386
69.21447
72.9006
73.18915

Ft+m

40.013
41.334
44.027
44.072
46.059
49.015
50.913
52.076
54.262
57.516
58.926
61.018
63.627
68.486
68.728
70.015
71.238
74.937
73.931

PE

0.024073
0.173319
-0.12888
0.062294
0.096878
0.154905
-0.08325
0.035623
0.064442
0.154174
-0.05225
0.031454
0.103851
0.110578
-0.16488
-0.11135
0.024134
0.118391
-0.12017
MAPE

Abs PE

0.024073
0.173319
0.128885
0.062294
0.096878
0.154905
0.083251
0.035623
0.064442
0.154174
0.052254
0.031454
0.103851
0.110578
0.164877
0.11135
0.024134
0.118391
0.120167
0.095521

Stat U

-43.1839 -36.9211
-59.9675 -39.7805
-29.5395
-49.22
-55.511 -37.7949
-54.3604 -45.9149
-64.9997 -49.8627
-37.2084 -57.1897
-60.9345 -45.8511
-61.2914 -52.9259
-78.7325 -56.8276
-45.2511 -67.1765
-69.7854
-54.875
-79.0059
-61.873
-82.5425 -69.9155
-44.3152 -76.2338
-66.0845 -57.9322
-83.4565 -61.8413
-97.9461 -71.8356
-50.3773 -84.2235
-1164.49 -1078.19
1.039249679

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

Dt
0.947
1.026
1.132
0.895
0.950

St

At

Ft+m

Abs-PE

38

1.00

1.027
1.136
0.896

39.190
41.004
42.400

1.019
1.099
1.128

40.026
45.499
37.671

2.37%
9.00%
3.41%

0.955
1.031
1.139
0.898
0.958
1.032
1.142
0.900
0.961
1.035
1.142
0.898
0.959
1.035
1.143
0.898

44.717
46.700
48.628
50.499
52.852
54.756
56.996
59.375
62.010
64.806
66.853
68.123
69.084
70.778
72.911
74.455

1.247
1.321
1.381
1.430
1.523
1.561
1.629
1.704
1.797
1.897
1.912
1.848
1.759
1.753
1.790
1.766

41.352
47.220
54.550
44.808
49.595
56.035
64.134
52.628
58.537
65.848
76.142
61.888
67.260
73.334
82.833
67.104

12.02%
7.41%
5.95%
4.66%
8.16%
3.39%
5.69%
6.02%
7.08%
7.26%
1.11%
4.89%
6.76%
0.46%
2.55%
1.67%

MAPE

5.26%

Stat U

-59.8659
-29.6666
-55.5807
-54.3358
-64.8912
-37.3136
-60.9873
-61.2586
-78.6184
-45.3437
-69.8297
-78.9707
-82.4346
-44.4041
-66.1312
-83.4233
-97.8379
-50.4576

-39.7805
-49.22
-37.7949
-45.9149
-49.8627
-57.1897
-45.8511
-52.9259
-56.8276
-67.1765
-54.875
-61.873
-69.9155
-76.2338
-57.9322
-61.8413
-71.8356
-84.2235

-1121.35 -1041.27
1.038

C1. Efek Kecenderungan Bersifat Multiplikatif Tanpa Efek Musiman

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

St

Bt

Ft+m

PE

Abs PE

38
38.6
40.90438
40.64572
42.02167
43.97746
47.02303
47.39356
49.08897
51.30955
55.17577
56.04645
58.15366
61.51666
65.55327
65.36622
65.94989
68.3965
72.83998
72.79722

1.00
1.000789
1.003735
1.003232
1.004763
1.006852
1.009972
1.009867
1.011163
1.012866
1.015991
1.01598
1.017061
1.019099
1.021425
1.020211
1.019647
1.02052
1.022742
1.021576

38
38.63047
41.05715
40.77709
42.22182
44.27879
47.49195
47.86121
49.63694
51.96972
56.05807
56.94208
59.14582
62.69159
66.95777
66.68736
67.24562
69.79998
74.49652

0.073171
0.227391
-0.05275
0.132402
0.172121
0.236573
-0.01047
0.113681
0.144191
0.235739
-0.00104
0.096157
0.16696
0.185824
-0.13488
-0.05853
0.078827
0.178824
-0.12874

0.073171
0.227391
0.052748
0.132402
0.172121
0.236573
0.010467
0.113681
0.144191
0.235739
0.001037
0.096157
0.16696
0.185824
0.134877
0.058529
0.078827
0.178824
0.128735

MAPE

0.127803

k Musiman
Stat U

-43.2368
-60.0334
-29.5989
-55.5955
-54.4421
-65.0926
-37.2674
-61.0242
-61.3771
-78.8281
-45.2933
-69.8582
-79.0771
-82.6241
-44.3382
-66.1409
-83.5199
-98.0164
-50.3706

-36.9211
-39.7805
-49.22
-37.7949
-45.9149
-49.8627
-57.1897
-45.8511 1.039803
-52.9259
-56.8276
-67.1765
-54.875
-61.873
-69.9155
-76.2338
-57.9322
-61.8413
-71.8356
-84.2235

-1165.73

-1078.19

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt

St
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

38
38.3974
40.51061
40.13714
41.42569
43.24201
46.01333
46.40525
47.99398
50.02172
53.49922
54.49457
56.48875
59.6246
63.13438
63.16713
63.64441
65.78794
69.62472
70.02676

Ct
0.935
1.013
1.117
0.883
0.842
1.172
1.954
0.681
1.315
1.831
2.957
0.672
1.784
2.445
4.112
0.756
2.257
3.338
5.087
0.263
1.967
3.726
6.116
-0.166

Bt

1
1.000523
1.003249
1.002625
1.004099
1.006086
1.008986
1.008963
1.010227
1.011828
1.014712
1.014907
1.015991
1.017967
1.020012
1.019038
1.018464
1.019224
1.021179
1.020409

Ft+m

39.013
39.514
41.394
40.979
42.598
45.196
46.694
47.720
49.825
52.979
54.172
56.279
58.934
63.736
63.890
65.424
66.983
70.875
69.888
MAPE

Abs PE

4.85%
20.97%
6.14%
12.81%
16.48%
22.08%
0.65%
11.63%
14.10%
22.09%
3.26%
10.67%
16.99%
17.23%
8.29%
3.85%
8.24%
16.62%
5.89%
11.73%

Stat U

-43.2102 -36.9211
-60.0118 -39.7805
-29.5921
-49.22
-55.5903 -37.7949
-54.4341 -45.9149
-65.0746 -49.8627
-37.2811 -57.1897
-61.0272 -45.8511
-61.3736 -52.9259
-78.8107 -56.8276
-45.321 -67.1765
-69.87
-54.875
-79.0804
-61.873
-82.6093 -69.9155
-44.3781 -76.2338
-66.1623 -57.9322
-83.5241 -61.8413
-98.0017 -71.8356
-50.4248 -84.2235
-1165.78 -1078.19
1.0398

Tahun
2001

2002

2003

2004

`2005

2006

Triwulan
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt
36
39
43
34
38
41
50
39
47
51
58
47
54
58
68
56
63
71
77
59
63
73
85
66

Dt
0.947
1.026
1.132
0.895
0.950
1.027
1.131
0.898
0.958
1.034
1.139
0.903
0.965
1.040
1.146
0.909
0.972
1.046
1.150
0.910
0.972
1.049
1.154
0.911

St

38
39.18974
44.31424
40.43731
42.24459
43.77742
45.55564
47.02806
49.09464
50.762
52.90263
55.13379
57.66635
60.3724
62.41685
63.68843
64.78492
66.73818
69.19816
70.9366

Bt
0.947
1.026
1.132
0.895
1.000
1.002
1.008
1.003
1.005
1.007
1.009
1.010
1.011
1.013
1.014
1.015
1.017
1.018
1.019
1.019
1.019
1.020
1.021
1.021

Ft+m

39
44.41571
39.96778
38.54028
43.62923
49.87072
41.26928
45.49804
51.35498
58.51977
48.45787
54.03916
60.96922
70.45636
57.82324
63.07344
69.0952
78.28107
64.25235
MAPE

Abs PE

4.88%
11.17%
2.48%
18.00%
14.45%
14.02%
12.19%
15.74%
11.46%
13.94%
13.47%
14.22%
14.13%
8.50%
1.99%
0.12%
5.35%
7.90%
2.65%
9.82%

Stat U

-43.21052632 -36.92105263
-59.89229974 -39.7804878
-29.62064438
-49.22
-55.65281324 -37.79487179
-54.41214409 -45.91489362
-64.98292713 -49.8627451
-37.37466759 -57.18965517
-61.07450971 -45.85106383
-61.3452781 -52.92592593
-78.71517634 -56.82758621
-45.40503135 -67.17647059
-69.91001503
-54.875
-79.04810768 -61.87301587
-82.51469918 -69.91549296
-44.45684104 -76.23376623
-66.2021451 -57.93220339
-83.49055241 -61.84126984
-97.90025934 -71.83561644
-50.49114885 -84.22352941
-1165.699787 -1078.194647
1.4772