Financial Analisis Kalibumi - 211011

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PERKIRAAN KEBUTUHAN LAHAN UNTUK PEMBANGUNAN P

ITEM

BENDUNG
SALURAN PEMBAWA & AKSES
KOLAM PENENANG
PENSTOCK
PH
TAILRACE
AKSES DARI/KE PH

ALTERNATIF 1 (TANAH SEWA)


panjang
lebar
m
m

500

100

TOTAL
PRAKIRAAN TANAH HARGA PER METER (SEWA)

PRAKIRAAN TANAH HARGA PER METER (BELI)

500

M2

15,000

M2

PERKIRAAN KEBUTUHAN LAHAN UNTUK PEMBANGUNAN PLTM AMAI

ALTERNATIF 1 (TANAH SEWA)


luas
m2

50,000

25,000,000

ALTERNATIF 2 (TANAH BELI)


panjang
lebar
luas
m
m
m2

700

TOTAL

300

210,000

3,150,000,000

ALTERNATIF 3 (TANAH BELI)


panjang
lebar
m
m

1,300

TOTAL

200

ALTERNATIF 3 (TANAH BELI)


luas
m2

260,000

3,900,000,000

148.5
45
22
990
148.5

0.15
0.15

6.75
3.3
22.275

ESTIMASI BIAYA PEKERJAAN SIPIL DAN METAL


ITEM PEKERJAAN
Pembersihan Lahan
Jalan Akses
Cofferdam
Bendung
Bangunan Pengambilan
Bangunan Pengendap lumpur
Saluran Pembawa
Bak Penenang
Pondasi Pipa Pesat
Gedung Sentral
Saluran Pembuang
Bangunan pelengkap

PLTM KALIBUMI ALT. 1


2.600 Kw

4800 M3

138 M
14 M
88 M

Sub Total

Jumlah Total

24,000.00

M3

250.00

M3

60.00
50.00

13,290,000,000.00

Sub Total
PEKERJAAN BAJA
PINTU PENGURAS DI DAM
KISI-KISI PADA PINTU PENGAMBILAN
PINTU PENGAMBILAN
KISI-KISI PADA INTAKE PIPA PESAT
PIPA PESAT
OVERHEIGHT TOWER CRANE
JALUR TRANSMISI & GARDU INDUK

150,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
3,840,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
850,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
2,000,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
2,500,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
1,750,000,000.00

PLTM KALIBUMI ALT. 2


2100 kW

1
1
2
2
14 M
1
3500 M

165,000,000.00
165,000,000.00
110,000,000.00
45,000,000.00
1,500,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
1,050,000,000.00

500,000,000.00
2,000,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
19,200,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
900,000,000.00
550,000,000.00
1,200,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
2,500,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
4,000,000,000.00

PLTM KALIBUMI ALT. 3


1300 kW

33,600.00

150.00
60.00
300.00

32,700,000,000.00

1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
60.00
1.00
7,300.00

165,000,000.00
165,000,000.00
110,000,000.00
45,000,000.00
4,500,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
2,190,000,000.00

M3

350,000,000.00
900,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
26,880,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
900,000,000.00
450,000,000.00
1,200,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
2,500,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
4,000,000,000.00

39,230,000,000.00

1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
60.00
1.00
2,500.00

165,000,000.00
165,000,000.00
110,000,000.00
45,000,000.00
4,500,000,000.00
750,000,000.00
750,000,000.00

3,785,000,000.00

7,925,000,000.00

6,485,000,000.00

17,075,000,000.00

40,625,000,000.00

45,715,000,000.00

PERKIRAAN ANGGARAN INVESTASI


PLTM. AMAI - KABUPATEN NABIRE PROPINSI PAPUA
ESTIMASI BIAYA PEKERJAAN SIPIL DAN METAL
ALTERNATIF 1
1600 kW

PEKERJAAN SIPIL
Pembersihan Lahan
Jalan Akses
Cofferdam
Bendung
Bangunan Pengambilan
Bangunan Pengendap lumpur
Saluran Pembawa
Bak Penenang
Pondasi Pipa Pesat
Gedung Sentral
Saluran Pembuang
Bangunan pelengkap
Sub Total
PEKERJAAN BAJA
PINTU PENGURAS DI DAM
KISI-KISI PADA PINTU PENGAMBILAN
PINTU PENGAMBILAN
KISI-KISI PADA INTAKE PIPA PESAT
PIPA PESAT
OVERHEIGHT TOWER CRANE
JALUR TRANSMISI & GARDU INDUK
Sub Total
Jumlah Total

ALTERNATIF 2
992 kW

ALTERNATIF 3
647 kW

150,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
3,840,000,000
750,000,000
850,000,000
350,000,000
2,000,000,000
250,000,000
2,500,000,000
300,000,000
1,750,000,000
13,290,000,000

500,000,000
2,000,000,000
400,000,000
19,200,000,000
750,000,000
900,000,000
550,000,000
1,200,000,000
500,000,000
2,500,000,000
200,000,000
4,000,000,000
32,700,000,000

350,000,000
900,000,000
600,000,000
26,880,000,000
750,000,000
900,000,000
450,000,000
1,200,000,000
500,000,000
2,500,000,000
200,000,000
4,000,000,000
39,230,000,000

165,000,000
165,000,000
110,000,000
45,000,000
1,500,000,000
750,000,000
1,050,000,000
3,785,000,000

165,000,000
165,000,000
110,000,000
45,000,000
4,500,000,000
750,000,000
2,190,000,000
7,925,000,000

165,000,000
165,000,000
110,000,000
45,000,000
4,500,000,000
750,000,000
750,000,000
6,485,000,000

17,075,000,000

40,625,000,000

45,715,000,000

PROYEKSI ANGGARAN MESIN (CHINA)


PROYEKSI ANGGARAN MESIN (CHINA)
KAPASITAS
JUMLAH UNIT
PRICE / 2 UNIT
MOBILISASI
SUB TOTAL

ALTERNATIF 1
1.300 kW
2
30,198,325,820
1,207,933,033
31,406,258,853

ALTERNATIF 2
1.100 kW
2
27,074,361,080
1,082,974,443
28,157,335,523

ALTERNATIF 3
650 kW
2
21,867,753,180
874,710,127
22,742,463,307

PRA OPERASIONAL
PRA OPERASIONAL
PEMBEBASAN LAHAN
SUB TOTAL

ALTERNATIF 1
25,000,000
25,000,000

ALTERNATIF 2
3,150,000,000
3,150,000,000

ALTERNATIF 3
3,900,000,000
3,900,000,000

KETERANGAN

ANALISA PROYEKSI FINANCIAL (BEP)


PLTM KALIBUMI - KABUPATEN NABIRE
ALT 1 : 2600 kW
ALT 2 : 2100 kW

ALT 3 :1300 kW
(Rp. )

Nilai Proyek

57,623,235,517
57,623,235,517
-

EQUITY 100%
LOAN 0%
BIAYA LANGSUNG
BIAYA TIDAK LANGSUNG
PAJAK (10%)

48,481,258,853
3,903,500,708
5,238,475,956

Kapasitas
Jam Produksi per tahun
Jangka waktu kontrak
Harga kontrak per Kwh (Tegangan Menengah / Rendah)
Proyeksi output
Output yang di hasilkan pertahun

85,178,414,602
85,178,414,602
68,782,335,523
8,652,586,842
7,743,492,237

2,600
8,760
15
984
95%
21,637,200

85,617,466,409
85,617,466,409
68,457,463,307
9,376,597,065
7,783,406,037

2,100
8,760
15
984
95%
17,476,200

1,300
kW
8,760
Jam / Tahun
15
Tahun
984
per KwH
95% Koefisien Faktor
10,818,600
Kwh / Tahun

PROYEKSI PENDAPATAN
Penjualan selama 1 tahun
Penjualan selama 1 bulan

21,291,004,800
1,774,250,400

17,196,580,800
1,433,048,400

10,645,502,400
887,125,200

/ Tahun
/ Bulan

70,970,016
16,200,000
44,356,260
124,197,528
88,712,520
88,712,520
433,148,844

57,321,936
16,200,000
35,826,210
100,313,388
71,652,420
71,652,420
352,966,374

35,485,008
16,200,000
22,178,130
62,098,764
44,356,260
44,356,260
224,674,422

4.0%
/ Bulan
2.5%
7.0%
5.0%
/ Bulan
5.0%
/ Bulan

PROYEKSI PENGELUARAN per BULAN


1. Operations Maintanace
2. Retribusi Air
(24 jam x 30 hari x 3000. x 0,75 x Rp.10,-)
3. Pph
4. Community development
5. Lain - lain
6. Bank Installment (70% Total Investasi)
7. Cadangan / Pengembangan
Total Pengeluaran
PROYEKSI RUGI / LABA
Net Profit setelah pajak
Per Bulan
Per Tahun

2.33%
27.93%

ANALISA BEP

1,341,101,556
16,093,218,672

1.87%
22.49%

3.5806
3 TAHUN

5 BULAN

1,080,082,026
12,960,984,312

0.78%
9.33%

6.5719
6 TAHUN

5 BULAN

662,450,778
7,949,409,336
10.7703

10 TAHUN

7 BULAN

TOTAL BIAYA PROYEK


PLTM KALIBUMI ALTERNATIF 1, 2 DAN 3

NO

URAIAN

PLTM KALIBUMI
ALTERNATIF 1

PLTM KALIBUMI
ALTERNATIF 2

PLTM KALIBUMI
ALTERNATIF 3

INVESTASI
A

BIAYA LANGSUNG

Pekerjaan Persiapan , Sipil dan Metal

17,075,000,000

40,625,000,000

45,715,000,000

Pekerjaan Elektrikal dan Mekanikal

31,406,258,853

28,157,335,523

22,742,463,307

TOTAL BIAYA LANGSUNG

48,481,258,853

68,782,335,523

68,457,463,307

BIAYA TIDAK LANGSUNG

Biaya Ketidakpastian Fisik (Physical


Contingency) - (5% dari Total Biaya Langsung)

2,424,062,943

3,439,116,776

3,422,873,165

Biaya Engineering Services (3% dari Total


Biaya Langsung)

1,454,437,766

2,063,470,066

2,053,723,899

Pembebasan Lahan

25,000,000

3,150,000,000

3,900,000,000

TOTAL BIAYA TIDAK LANGSUNG

3,903,500,708

8,652,586,842

9,376,597,065

TOTAL BIAYA SEBELUM PAJAK

52,384,759,561

77,434,922,365

77,834,060,372

5,238,475,956

7,743,492,237

7,783,406,037

57,623,235,517

85,178,414,602

85,617,466,409

PPN (10%)
TOTAL BIAYA PROYEK

PERHITUNGAN POTENSI PENGHEMATAN DAN HARGA RATA-RATA

DATA TARIF DASAR


TAHUN

PRODUKSI
ENERGI

ESKALASI

TOTAL

Rp/kWh

Rp/kWh

Rp/kWh

Rp/kWh

Rp/kWh

BPP PLTD
NABIRE

POTENSI
PENGHEMATAN

Rp/kWh

Rp.

10.37

1.00

984

59.43

10.00

34.47

1,087.90

1,933.45

18,295,334,460.00

10.37

1.05

984

60.48

10.00

35.52

1,090.00

2,024.32

19,356,463,858.68

10.37

1.10

984

61.58

10.00

36.62

1,092.20

2,119.47

20,479,138,762.48

10.37

1.16

984

62.74

10.00

37.78

1,094.52

2,219.08

21,666,928,810.71

10.37

1.22

984

63.96

10.00

39.00

1,096.96

2,323.38

22,923,610,681.73

10.37

1.28

984

65.24

10.00

40.28

1,099.52

2,432.58

24,253,180,101.27

10.37

1.34

984

66.58

10.00

41.62

1,102.20

2,546.91

25,659,864,547.14

10.37

1.41

984

67.99

10.00

43.03

1,105.02

2,666.61

27,148,136,690.88

10.37

1.48

984

69.47

10.00

44.51

1,107.98

2,791.94

28,722,728,618.95

10

10.37

1.55

984

71.02

10.00

46.06

1,111.08

2,923.16

30,388,646,878.85

11

10.37

1.63

984

72.65

10.00

47.69

1,114.34

3,060.55

32,151,188,397.82

12

10.37

1.71

984

74.36

10.00

49.40

1,117.76

3,204.40

34,015,957,324.89

13

10.37

1.80

984

76.16

10.00

51.20

1,121.36

3,355.00

35,988,882,849.74

14

10.37

1.89

984

78.05

10.00

53.09

1,125.14

3,512.69

38,076,238,055.02

15

10.37

1.98

984

80.03

10.00

55.07

1,129.10

3,677.79

40,284,659,862.21

16

10.37

2.08

984

82.11

10.00

57.15

1,133.26

3,850.64

42,621,170,134.22

17

10.37

2.18

984

84.29

10.00

59.33

1,137.62

4,031.62

45,093,198,002.01

18

10.37

2.29

984

86.58

10.00

61.62

1,142.20

4,221.11

47,708,603,486.12

19

10.37

2.41

984

88.99

10.00

64.03

1,147.02

4,419.50

50,475,702,488.32

20

10.37

2.53

984

91.52

10.00

66.56

1,152.08

4,627.22

53,403,293,232.64

21

10.37

2.65

984

94.17

10.00

69.21

1,157.38

4,844.70

56,500,684,240.13

22

10.37

2.79

984

96.96

10.00

72.00

1,162.96

5,072.40

59,777,723,926.06

23

10.37

2.93

984

99.89

10.00

74.93

1,168.82

5,310.80

63,244,831,913.77

24

10.37

3.07

984

102.96

10.00

78.00

1,174.96

5,560.41

66,913,032,164.77

25

10.37

3.23

984

106.19

10.00

81.23

1,181.42

5,821.75

70,793,988,030.33

26

10.37

3.39

984

109.58

10.00

84.62

1,188.20

6,095.37

74,900,039,336.09

27

10.37

3.56

984

113.14

10.00

88.18

1,195.32

6,381.85

79,244,241,617.58

28

10.37

3.73

984

116.87

10.00

91.91

1,202.78

6,681.80

83,840,407,631.40

29

10.37

3.93

984

120.80

10.00

95.84

1,210.64

6,995.84

88,703,151,274.02

30

10.37

4.12

984

124.92

10.00

99.96

1,218.88

7,324.65

93,847,934,047.91

HARGA RATA - RATA

1,138.95

DEBIT
(m3/detik)

15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%

3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15

2.68
2.52
2.36
2.21
2.05
1.89
1.73
1.58
1.42
1.26
1.10
0.95
0.79
0.63
0.47

Daya
Terpasang
(kW)

Energi
(GWh)

Investasi Biaya Pembangkit


( Juta Rp.)
(Rp/kWh)

Capacity
Factor

Indeks Biaya
Kapasitas

Annualized Biaya
Konstuksi
(Juta Rp.)

URAIAN

TAHUN

JUMLAH

INVESTASI AWAL TAHUN

(1)

(57,623,235,517.13)

INVESTASI AWAL TAHUN

(2)

(21,291,004,800.00)

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

18,295,334,460.00

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

19,356,463,858.68

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

20,479,138,762.48

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

21,666,928,810.71

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

22,923,610,681.73

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

24,253,180,101.27

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

25,659,864,547.14

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

27,148,136,690.88

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

28,722,728,618.95

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

10

30,388,646,878.85

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

11

32,151,188,397.82

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

12

34,015,957,324.89

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

13

35,988,882,849.74

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

14

38,076,238,055.02

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

15

40,284,659,862.21

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

16

42,621,170,134.22

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

17

45,093,198,002.01

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

18

47,708,603,486.12

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

19

50,475,702,488.32

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

20

53,403,293,232.64

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

21

56,500,684,240.13

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

22

59,777,723,926.06

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

23

63,244,831,913.77

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

24

66,913,032,164.77

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

25

70,793,988,030.33

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

26

74,900,039,336.09

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

27

79,244,241,617.58

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

28

83,840,407,631.40

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

29

88,703,151,274.02

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

30

93,847,934,047.91

PENILAIAN DASAR

IRR

DISCOUNT FACTOR

27.93%

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR)

14.96%

KESIMPULAN

DAPAT DILANJUTKAN

URAIAN

TAHUN

JUMLAH

INVESTASI AWAL TAHUN

(1)

(57,623,235,517.13)

INVESTASI AWAL TAHUN

(2)

(21,291,004,800.00)

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

18,295,334,460.00

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

19,356,463,858.68

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

20,479,138,762.48

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

21,666,928,810.71

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

22,923,610,681.73

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

24,253,180,101.27

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

25,659,864,547.14

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

27,148,136,690.88

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

28,722,728,618.95

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

10

30,388,646,878.85

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

11

32,151,188,397.82

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

12

34,015,957,324.89

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

13

35,988,882,849.74

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

14

38,076,238,055.02

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

15

40,284,659,862.21

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

16

42,621,170,134.22

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

17

45,093,198,002.01

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

18

47,708,603,486.12

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

19

50,475,702,488.32

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

20

53,403,293,232.64

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

21

56,500,684,240.13

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

22

59,777,723,926.06

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

23

63,244,831,913.77

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

24

66,913,032,164.77

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

25

70,793,988,030.33

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

26

74,900,039,336.09

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

27

79,244,241,617.58

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

28

83,840,407,631.40

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

29

88,703,151,274.02

POTENSI PENGHEMATAN

30

93,847,934,047.91

DISCOUNT FACTOR

27.93%

DASAR PENILAIAN

NPV

NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) - (Rp)


KESIMPULAN

59,891,173,876.37
DAPAT DILANJUTKAN

PERHITUNGAN BIAYA KONSTRUKSI

ALTERNATIF

IDC

CRF

Ct

CA

ALT. 1 (2600 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

57,623,235,517.1264

10,821,200,081.0233

ALT. 1 (2100 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

85,178,414,601.5616

15,995,850,609.8447

ALT. 1 (1300 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

85,617,466,408.9536

16,078,301,159.7156

PERHITUNGAN BIAYA KONSTRUKSI dan BIAYA IN

ALTERNATIF

IDC

CRF

Ct

ALT. 1 (2600 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

57,623,235,517.1264

ALT. 1 (2100 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

85,178,414,601.5616

ALT. 1 (1300 kW)

0.2437

0.15099

85,617,466,408.9536

* Formula

CA =

Ct x (1 + IDC) x CRF

KONSTRUKSI dan BIAYA INDEKS KAPASITAS

CA

US$ /Kw

Rp./kW)

10,821,200,081.0233

2,462.53

22,162,782.8912

15,995,850,609.8447

4,506.79

40,561,149.8103

16,078,301,159.7156

7,317.73

65,859,589.5453

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