CHNG II:

THU THP V TRNH BY D LIU THNG K

Bi 2.1
C ti liu v bc th ca cc cng nhn trong mt x nghip nh sau:
1
3
2
4
3
1
2
7
1
3
4
2
4
3
5
6
2
6
3
3
4
3
1
4
3
1
2
3
1
3
4
2
3
2
4
3
5
1
4
2
6
3
5
4
3
4
5
1
3
3
5
3
2
4
3
5
4
3
5
2
3
6
4
5
6
7
y/c:
- hy phn t ca cng nhn x nghip theo bc th
- biu din kt qu ln th
Gii: Phn t cng nhn theo bc th:
1.

3
2
4
2
5
1

2
4
1
1
4
4

4
3
6
3
1
1

Ta c:
1
3

n = (2 * k)
Khong cch t:

1
3

=(2 * 84)
d=

6=

X max X min ( n 1) 7 1 (6 1) 1
=
n
6
6

Kt qu phn t cng nhn theo bc th:

Tn sut fi / f i

Bc th

S CN

xi

fi

13

0,15

13

0,15

23

0,27

18

0,21

0,1

2.

0,07

0,02

Tng

84

Biu din kt qu ln th:

25

S CN

20
15
10
5
0
1

Bc th

Bi s 2.2
c ti liu thu thp c v s nhn vin bn hng ca 40 ca hng thng mi
thuc mt thnh ph trong k bo co nh sau:
25
7
16
21

24
4
12
15

15
5
7
5

20
9
11
19

19
13
22
13

10
17
6
9

5
1
20
14

24
23
4
18

18
8
10
10

14
3
12
15

- cn c theo s nhn vin bn hng, phn t cc ca hng ni trn thnh 5 t

c khong cch u nhau.
- Tnh tn sut v mt phn phi ca dy s xy dng cu 1
Gii:Khong cch t:

d=

X max Xm in ( n1) 25 1 (5 1)
=
4
n
5

Ta c kt qu phn t:
S nhn vin

S ca hng

fi

gi
i

di

1-5

17.5

1.75

6-10

22.5

2.25

11-15

10

25

2.5

16-20

20

21-25

15

1.5

Tng

40

100

Bi s2.3
ti mt x nghip ta thu thp c thng tin v thi gian cn thit hon thnh
mt loi sn phm ca 50 cng nhn nh sau(n v tnh: pht):
20,8
25,3
23,7
21,3
19,7

22,82
20,7
20,3
21,5
24,2

Gii:

d=

21,8
22,5
23,6
23,1
23,8

22,0
21,2
19,0
19,9
20,7

20,7
23,8
25,1
24,2
23,8

20,9
23,3
25,0
24,1
24,3

25,0
20,9
19,5
19,8
21,1

22,2
22,9
24,1
23,9
20,9

1. phn ti liu thnh 7 t vi khong cch u nhau

Tnh tn sut v tn s tch ly ca mi t
V th tn s v tn s tch ly.
Khong cch t:

X ma x Xm in 2 5, 3 1 9
= 0, 9
n
7

Kt qu phn t:
Thi gian

S CN

Tn sut

Tn s tch
lu

19 -19.9

0.1

19.9 - 20.8

0.12

11

22,8
23,5
24,2
22,8
21,6

20,1
19,5
21,8
23,9
22,7

20.8 - 21.7

0.18

20

21.7 - 22.6

0.1

25

22.6 - 23.5

0.14

32

23.5 - 24.4

14

0.28

46

24.4 - 25.3

0.08

50

Tng

50

V th tn s v tn s tch lu:
50

60

45
50 50

40
35

40

S CN

30
32

25
25

20
20

15
10
5

30

5
5

11
6

20

14

9
5

Tn s tch ly

46

10

7
4

0
19 - 19.9 19.9 20.8

20.8 21.7
S CN

21.7 22.6

22.6 23.5

23.5 24.4

24.4 25.3

Tn s tch lu

CHNG III:
M T D LIU BNG CC C TRNG THNG K
Bi 3.1:
C ti liu v vn u t xy dng ca mt a phng c trnh by di
dng bng sau( n v tnh: triu ng):
nm

Tng s
Xy lp

Trong
Thit b

Xy dng khc

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

12806,3
15959,1
20559,1
16019,6
16795,3
16300,0

8195,9
8023,8
14987,9
11973,9
12591,6
11600,0

3603,5
6662,8
2957,5
2425,6
2603,5
2500,0

1008,9
1272,5
2622,7
1602,2
1600,2
2200,0

- hy xc nh cc s tng i c th tnh ton

- hy ly v d minh ha cho tng loi
Gii:
1
Cc s tng i c th tnh ton l: tt : s tng i ng thi, tkc : s
tng i kt cu, tKG : s tng i khng gian.
2

tdt =

V d minh ho:

15959,1
100% =124, 6%
12806, 3

=> Tc tng trng v ch tiu vn u t xy dng c bn ca a phng

nm 2007 l 124.6%.

tkc =

8195.9
x 100%= 64%
12806.3

=> Ch tiu v vn u t xu dng ca b phn xu lp chim 64% tng vn du

t xy dng.

tkg =

8195, 9
100%

3603, 5

227,
= 4%

=> Ch tiu v vn u t xy dng ca b phn xy lp so vi ch tiu ca b

phn thit b l 227.4%
Bi s 3.2
c ti liu v thc hin k hoch v doanh thu qu I, II ca mt nm ca 3 ca
hng thuc cng ty A nh sau( n v tnh: triu ng):

Tn ca hng
Thc t qu I
K hoch qu II Thc t qu II
1
900
1000
1000
2
1300
1500
1800
3
1600
2500
2075
Hy tnh cc s tng i thch hp nhm nh gi k hoch doanh thu ca tng
ca hng ca c cng ty.
Gii:
Tnh cc s tng i thch hp nhm nh gi k hoch doanh thu ca tng ca
hng v c cng ty.
Cc s tng i c th tnh c: tt , tnv , tht
Theo yu cu ca bi ton, chng ta ch tnh: tnv , tht

Tn ca
hng
1
2
3
Cng ty
Ta c tnv

Thc t
qu I

K hoch
qu II

Thc t
qu II

S tng
S tng
i NVKH i HTKH
y1 / y0

900
1300
1600
3800

ykh 5000
=
=
y0
3800

1000
1500
2500
5000

1000
1800
2075
4875

1,1
1.15
1.5625
1,31

1
1,2
0,83
0,975

1,31

Nhim v t ra cho qu 2 v doanh thu phi tng so vi qu 1 l 31%.

tht =

y1 4875
=
0,
= 975
yKH 5000

Nh vy, thc t qu 2 khng hon thnh k hoch t ra l 2,5%

Bi s 3.3

1. mt x nghip c k hoch h thp gi thnh n v sn phm ca k nghin

cu l 5%. Ga thnh thc t n v sn phm k nghin cu so vi k gc
gim 7%.hy tnh s tng i hon thnh k hoch gim gi thnh.
2. mt x nghip c k hoch h thp lng thi gian lao ng hao ph sn
xut mt n v sn phm ca k nghin cu l 4%. Lng thi gian lao
ng hao ph sn xut mt n v sn phm ca k nghin cu so vi k
gc tng 2%. Hy tnh s tng i hon thnh k hoch v hon thnh ch
tiu ni trn.
3. mt x nghip c k hoch tng tng sn lng cng nghip ca k nghin
cu l 8%.thc t ca k nghin cu so vi k gc, tng sn lng tng
12%. Hy tnh s tng i hon thnh k hoch v ch tiu tn sn lngc
ca x nghip.
Gii:
1

Tnh s tng i gim gi thnh:

Ta c:

y KH
tnv = =
y0
y
tdt ==1
y0

0,95
0,93

Ta c:

tdt =tht t.nv

t
tht= =dt
tnv

0,93
=
0,95

0,98

Vy, ch tiu v gi thnh i vi sn phm ca k nghin cu hon thnh vt

mc k hoch l 3% ( v chnh lch gia s tng i nhim v v k hoch l
3%).
2

t nv = 0,96
t dt =1,02
tdt
1,02
t=
=
=
ht
tnv
0,96

1,0625

Vy, ch tiu v thi gian lao ng hao ph ca k nghin cu khng hon thnh so
vi k hoch t ra.
3

t nv =
1
,08
t dt =
1
,12
t dt
1
,12
t ht =
=
=
t nv
1
,08

1.03

Vy trong k nghin cu x nghip khng hon thnh k hoch t ra v ch tiu

s lng l 3%.
Bi s 3.4
c tnh hnh thu hoch la trong nm ca 3 hp tc x thuc mt x nh sau:
Tn hp tc
x

V h thu
V ng xun
Nng sut
Din tch
Nng sut
Din tch
(t/ha)
(ha)
(t/ha)
(ha)
A
33
100
40
120
B
35
120
38
140
C
37
180
36
140
- tnh nng sut la bnh qun v h thu,v ng xun ca ton x
- tnh nng sut la bnh qun mi v trong nm ca ton x
Gii:
1.

Tnh nng sut la bnh qun v h thu, v ng xun ca ton x?

x f

x =
f
i

33 100 + 35 120

37+ 180
=
35, 5 Nng sut la= bnh qun v h thu
400

x2 =

x f
f
i

4 0 1 2 0 +3 8 14 0 3 6+ 1 4 0
=
3 7 , 9 Nng sut la bnh
= qun v ng
400

xun.
2.

Tnh nng sut la bnh qun mi v trong nm ca ton x?

x f

x=
f
i

3 5, 4 4 0 0 + 3 7 , 9 4 0 0
=
3 6, 6 5
800

Bi 3.5
c tnh hnh thu hoch la tron nm ca 3 hp tc x thuc mt x nh sau:
Hp tc x

Nng sut( t/ha)

T trng din tch thu

hoch
(%)
A
33
20
B
35
35
C
37
45
Hy tnh nng sut la bnh qun trong nm ca ton x.
Gii:
Nng sut la bnh qun trong nm ca ton x:

xd

x=
d
i

33 20 + 35 35 37
+ 45
=
35, 5
100

Bi 3.6
C ti liu v tnh hnh sn xut la v ma nm bo co ca 3 hp tc x trong
cng mt huyn nh sau:
Hp tc x

Din tch
gieo
cy(ha)

S 1
S 2
S 3

120
180
250

Lng phn
bn ha hc
cho mt
ha(kg)
180
160
200

Nng sut la Gi thnh 1

bnh
t la(1000d)
qun(t/ha)
36
35
40

74
76
70

- tnh lng phn ha hc bnh qun cho mt ha

- nng sut la thu hoch bnh qun
- gi thnh bnh qun 1 t la
Gii:
1.

x1 =

Lng phn ho hc bnh qun cho mt ha:

x f

i i

180 120 + 160 180 +200 250

=
182,=5(
550

)kg

Vy, lng phn ho hc bnh qun cho 1 ha la l: 182,5 (kg)

2.

x2 =

Nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun:

x f
f
i

3 6 1 2 0 +35 18
0 4 0+ 2 5 0
=
37 , 5 (t/ha)
550

Vy, nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca 3 hp tc x trong cng mt huyn l:
37,5 (t/ha)
3.

Gi thnh bnh qun mt t la:

Ta c: Sn lng la thu c = nng sut x din tch

S L1 = 3 6 12 0

4 3=2 0

S L2 = 3 5 18 0

6 3=0 0

S L3 = 4 0 2 5 0

1 0 =0 0 0

Gi thnh bnh qun mt t la l:

Ta c :

X3 =

74 4320 + 76 63000 +70 10000

72, 6=
20620

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun 1 t la l: 72,6 (1000/t)

Bi 3.7:
C ti liu v phn t cc hp tc x thuc mt huyn theo nng sut
thu hoch la v ma nm bo co nh sau:

1.

Nng sut la (t/ha)

S hp tc x
30-35
10
35-40
20
40-45
40
45-50
25
50-55
5
C th tnh nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca ton huyn hay khng?

Tr li: khng th tnh nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca ton huyn.
2.
iu kin tnh c nng sut bnh qun: trc tin cn phi tnh tr s
gia ca mi t.
Nng sut la bnh qun:

3 2 , 5 1 0 + 3 7 , 5 20 4 2+, 5 4 0 4 7 , 5 +2 5 5 2 , 5 5 +
X=
42, 25
100
Vy, nng sut bnh qun la ca cc hp tc x nm bo co l: 42,25 (t/ha)
Bi s 3.9
C mt xe ti chy i 2 ln v chy v 2 ln gia nng trng X v nh ga Y vi
tc ( dvt: km/h) nh sau: lt i ln lt l 40, 35. lt v ln lt l 45,60
- hy tnh tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v, bit rng qung
ng t nh ga n nng trng l 120km.
- nu khng bit qung ng t nh ga n nng trng th c tnh c tc
bnh qun khng?

Gii:
1.
Tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v, bit rng qung ng t
nh ga n nng trng l 120 km

x=

M
M
x

4 120
= 43, 26
120 120 120 120
(km/h)
+
+
+
40 35 45 60

Vy, tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v vi qung qung ng

bng 120 l: 43,26 (km/h)
2.
Nu khng bit qung ng t nh ga n nng trng, trong trng hp
ny vn tnh c vn tc bnh qun. V qung ng l mt (nh nhau) nn ta c
th p dng cng thc:

x=

n
1
x
i

=
1 1 1
1
+ + +
40 35 45 60

43, 26

Vy, tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v l 43,26 (km/h)

Bi s 3.10
C ti liu v 2 x nghip ch bin thuc cng ty K cng sn xut mt loi sn
phm trong k nghin cu nh sau:
Qu X nghip X
X nghip Y
Gi thnh
T trng sn
Gi thnh
T trng chi ph
n v sn
lng ca tng
n v sn
sn xut ca tng
phm(1000d) qu trong nm(%) phm(1000d) qu trong nm(%)
I
19,5
16
20,0
18
II
20,2
35
21,4
36
III 20,4
30
19,2
29
IV 19,8
19
18,5
17
- tnh gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip X
- tnh gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip Y
Gii:
1.
Gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip X:

xd
d

x=

1 9 , 5 1 6 + 2 0 , 2 3 5
=
100

2 0 ,+4 3 0 19 , 8 1 +9
17,307

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip X l: 17,307 nghn ng

2.

Gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip Y:

x=

d
d
x

100
=
19, 95=
18
36
29
17
(nghn ng)
+
+
+
20 21, 4 19, 2 18, 5

i
i

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip Y l 19,95 nghn ng.

Bi s 3.11
c tnh hnh sn xut ti 2 x nghip dt trong 6 thng ca 1 nm nh sau:
X nghip

Qu III
Sn lng
vi(1000m)
240
360

A
B

T trng vi
loi I(%)
90
92

Qu IV
Sn lng
vi(1000m)
250
350

T trng vi
loi I(%)
92
94

- tnh t trng vi loi mt bnh qun mi qu ca tng x nghip trong 6

thng
- t trng vi loi mt bnh qun cho c 2 x nghip trong qu III, IV v 6
thng cui nm.
Gii:
1.
T trng vi loi I bnh qun mi qu ca tng x nghip trong 6 thng:

x f
f
x f
=
f

xA =

xB

90 240 + 92 250
=
245, 05 =
182
360 92 + 350 94
=
354, 9
186

2.
T trng vi loi I bnh qun chung cho c 2 x nghip trong qu III, IV, v
trong 6 thng cui nm:

- Qu III:

x1 =

x f
f
i

240 90 + 360 92
=
300, 6
182

- Qu IV:

x2 =

x f
f
i

250 92 + 350 94
=
300,=5
186

- 6 thng cui nm:

x =

x f
f
i

300, 6 182 + 300, 5 186

=
300, 54
368

Bi 3.12
C ti liu v tui ngh ca cng nhn trong 3 t trong mt x nghip nh sau:
T 2
2
5
7
9
9
9
10 10 11 12
I
T 3
5
8
10 12 15 16
II
T 2
3
4
4
4
5
5
7
7
8
III
Trong mi t hy tnh tui ngh bnh qun, s mt v s trung v
* T I:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:

x=

- S mt:

2 + 2 + 5 +7 9+ 9 + 9 +1 0 +1 0 1+1 1 2 +
=
7,81
11
Mode = 9

- S trung v: 11=2 x 5 + 1 V tr cha Med l v tr ca x6 => Me =9

* T II:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:

x1 =

- S mt :

3 + 5 + 8 +1 0 1+2 15+ 1 6 +
=
9, 85
7

Mode = khng tn ti

- S trung v : 7 = 2 x 3 + 1

V tr cha Me l v tr ca x4 => Me = 10

* T III:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:

x=

2+ 3 +4
=

- S mt :

Mode = 4

- S trung v: 10 = 2 x 5

4+ 4 + 5 +5
10

7 + 7 +8
4, 9

=> Me = (4 + 5) / 2 = 4,5
Bi 3.13

C ti liu v nng sut lao ng ca cc cng nhn trong mt m than nh sau:

Phn t cng nhn theo nng
sut lao ng ngy(kg)
400-450
450-500
500-600
600-800
800-1200

S cng nhn
10
15
15
30
5

- tnh nng sut lao ng bnh qun

- mt v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn
- s trung v v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn
Gii:
Ta c ct tr s gia nh sau:

Phn t CN theo
Tr s gia
nng sut lao
ng ngy (kg)
400 450
425
450 500
475
500 600
550
600 800
700
800 1200
1000
Tng
1.
Nng sut lao ng bnh qun:

x=

x f
f
i

S CN

Ri =

10
15
15
30
5
75

fi
di

0,2
0,3
0,15
0,15
0,125

4 25 1 0 + 47 5 15 5 +5 0 1 5 70 0 + 3 0 10 0 0 +5
=
6 0 8, 3
75

Vy nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca cc cng nhn trong m than l 608,3
(kg/CN)
2. Mt v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:
f

i
Trc ht, do khong cch t khng u nhau nn ta phi tnh Ri = d . Qua ta
i

thy, t cha t Mode l t 2.

Tr s gn ng ca Mode:

M 0 = Mx0

+i0
M

RM RM 0 1
0
( RM 0 RM 0 1 ) +( RM0

450 50
RM0 1 )

(0 , 3 0, 2 )
=
+
470
(0 , 3 0, 2 ) (0, 3 0,1 5) +

(Ta thy: 450 < 470 <500 =>ng)

3.
S trung v v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:
T c s Me l t 3
Tr s gn ng ca Me:

Me = xMe(min) + hMe

S( Me 1)
f Me

75

(10 15)
2
500 =100 +

583, 3 =
15
Bi 3.14

c ti liu v tui ngh(TN) v tin lng(TL) ca cc cng nhn nh sau:

TN(nm)
2
TL(10.000d) 633

2
655

5
780

7
810

9
820

9
815

10
850

11
900

12
940

- tnh khong bin thin, lch tuyt i bnh qun, phng sai v lch
chun ca tng tiu thc.
- hy so snh bin thin ca 2 tiu thc trn.
Gii:
1.
Tnh khong bin thin, lch chun, lch tuyt i bnh phng,
phng sai, lch chun ca tng tiu thc?
V tui ngh: x1 = 7

R1 = 12 2 10
=
d=

x
n

=
2

x 2 7 + 2 7
=

( x

x)

5+ 7 7 + 7 9 7+
9

9 7 + 10 7

( 2 72 )

+( 2

72 )

(5 +72 )

( 7 72 ) + (9 27 )
9

(9 + 27 ) (1 0

2,44

= 2 = 12, 44 3, 52
=> V1 =

3,52
100% =
100% = 50, 28%
x1
7

x2 = 800,3

V tin lng:

R2 = 940 633
= 307
d =
2 =

+11 7 12+ 7
3,1 1

n
( xi x ) 2
n

= 2=
=> V2 =

633 800,3 + 655 800,3+ ............

+ 940
800,3
=
9

2
(633 800,3) 2+ (655 800,3) +
.......+ (940 800,3) 2
=
9

9126,4
= 95,5

95,5
100% =
100% = 11,9%
x2
800,3

74
9126, 4

7+)

=1

(11 27 )

=> Ta thy, R1 > R2 bin thin v tui ngh nh hn bin thin v tin
lng tnh cht i biu ca s bnh qun v tui ngh cao hn tnh cht i
biu ca s bnh qun v tin lng.
Bi 3.15
C ti liu phn t 100 cng nhn dt theo nng sut lao ng nh sau:
Nng sut lao ng ngy
(mt)
Di 40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100 tr ln
Gii:
a.

S cng nhn
10
30
40
15
5

nng sut lao ng ngy bnh qun

lch tuyt i bnh qun
lch chun v nng sut lao ng ngy
lch bin thin v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn.

Nng sut lao ng ngy bnh qun:

xi fi =35 10 + 45 30 +62, 5 40 +87, 5 15 +112, 5 5 60, 75
x=
=
f
10
+
30
+
40
+
15
+
5
i

b.

lch tuyt i bnh qun:

75 30 .......
+ 112,+5 60, 755
xi x fi 35 = 60, 75 10 +45 60,
d=
14, 6
100
fi

c.

lch chun v NSL:

= ( x x )
f
2

d.

V=

2= 1 0 ,5

fi (3 0 6 0 , 72 5 ) 1 0 ( 4+5 6 0 , 72 5 ) 3 0 ....... (1
) +152 , 5 6+0 , 72 5
=
3 8 3,1 8
100

H s bin thin v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:

10, 5
100% =
100% =32, 09%
x
60, 75

Bi 3.16
C ti liu v tin lng ca cng nhn trong mt doanh nghip nh sau:
Loi cng nhn

S cng
nhn(ngi)

Th rn
Th ngui
Th tin

2
3
5

Mc lng thng
mi cng
nhn(10.000d)
170;180
160;180;200
170;190;200;210;230

- tnh tin lng bnh qun ca cng nhn mi loi v ton th cng nhn
- phng sai chung v cc phng sai t v tin lng
- phng sai cc s bnh qun t
- bnh qun ca cc phng sai t
- dng quy tc cng phng sai kim tra kt qu tnh ton
Gii:
1.
Tin lng bnh qun ca cng nhn mi loi v ton th cng nhn:
- Tin lng bnh qun ca cng nhn mi loi:
K hiu:
Th rn: x1
Th ngui: x2
Th tin: x3
x1 =

x=

x2 =

x=

160 +180 + 200

=
3

x3 =

x =

170 +190 + 200+ 210+ 230

=
5

170 +
180
=
2

175 lng bnh qun ca th rn l 1,75 triu ng.

180 lng bnh qun ca th ngui l 1,8 triu ng.
200 lng bnh qun ca th tin l 2 triu

ng.
- Tin lng bnh qun ca ton th CN:
x=

x f=
f
i i
i

175 2 +180 3+ 200

5
=
10

189

2.
Phng sai chung v cc phng sai t v tin lng:
- Phng sai chung:
=
2

( x

x) 2
=
n
i

2
2
(170 189) +
(180 189)+2 (160
189) .......
+ (230

189)
=
10

- Cc phng sai t v tin lng:

409

1 =

( x

2 =

( x

3 =

( x

3.

x)
=
n

2
(170 175) +
(180 175)
=
2

x)
=
n

25

(160 180) +2 (180 180)+ 2 (200

180)
=
3

x) 2
=
n

266,66

(170 200) 2+ (190 200) +2 (210

200)+ 2 (230
200)
=
5

400

Phng sai cc s bnh qun t:

( x x)=f
f
2

=
2

4.

(175 189) 22+ (180 189)+32 (200

189) 52
=
10

124

Bnh qun ca cc phng sai t:

= f
f
2

=
2

25 2 +266,66
+
3 400
5

10

5.

285

Dng quy tc cng phng sai kim tra li kt qu tnh ton:

2
2

2
i

=> 409 = 285 + 124 => ng

Bi 3.17:
Trong tng s 10000 bng n ca X nghip bng n-phch phch nc sn xut
ra, ngi ta iu tra thy c 200 ph phm. Tnh phng sai ca tiu thc phm
cht bng n sn xut?
Ta c: T l bng n ph phm (xc sut)
200
p=
= 0,02
10000

02
T l bng n t tiu chun: q = 1 p =1 0,
Vy t l bng n t tiu chun l 98%
Phng sai ca tiu thc phm cht bng n l:
2 = p q 0,
= 02 0,98

0,=98

0,=0196

Chng 4: DY S THI GIAN

Bi 4.1:
c ti li v doanh thu ca 1 cng ty thng mi trong cc ngy ca thng 2 nh
sau:
Ngy
Doanh thu
Ngy
Doanh thu
1
18
15
19
2
20
16
19

3
22
4
21
5
19
6
21
7
20
8
21
9
21
10
21
11
20
12
21
13
22
14
23
Yu c:
1. Dy s trn l dy s g?

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

23
25
24
24
26
24
28
29
28
30
28
31

2. Bi din s li trn ln th?

3. Tnh doanh thu bnh qun mt ngy trong tng tun v c thng?

Gii:
a. y l dy s thi k v ta thy s liu ni v ch tiu kt qu, c th cng
dn.
b. th
c. Doanh thu bnh qun trong mt ngy ca tun 1( n v tnh: triu ng)
Y1

= 140 / 2 +145 + 134 + 126 / 2 = 137.33

3

Tng t : Y2 =21.28 Y3 =22.85 Y4 =28.28

Doanh thu bnh qun trong c thng:
20.14 + 21.28 + 22.85 +28.28
= 23.14
Y=
4
Bi 4.2:
C ti li v gi tr hang tn kho ca mt cng ty Bch ho A vo cc ngy
thng nh sau(dv:tri ng)
Ngy
Gi tr hang tn`
Ngy
Gi tr hang tnf
kho
kho
1.1
120
1.7
146
1.2
122
1.8
148
1.3
126
1.9
144

1.4
1.5
1.6

128
134
140

1.10
1.11
1.12
1.1 nm sau

140
145
134
126

Yu c:
1.
Dy s trn l dy s g? v sao?
2.
Tnh gi tr hnh ho tn kho bnh qun ca cng ty vo cc th gian sau:
- M thng v m qu
- Su thng nm v c nm
Gii:
a. y l dy s thi im.
b. Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun trong mi thng:( n v tnh: triu
ng)
Thng 1: Y1 =

122 + 120
= 121
2

Thng 7: Y7 =147

Thng 2: Y2 =124

Thng 8: Y8 = 146

Thng 3: Y3 = 127

Thng 9: Y9 = 142

Thng 4: Y4 =131

Thng 10: Y10 = 142.5

Thng 5: Y5 =137

Thng 11: Y11 = 130.5

Thng 6: Y6 =143
Thng 12: Y12 = 130
Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun mi qu( triu ng):
120 / 2 + 122 + 126 + 128 / 2
= 124
3
128 / 2 + 134 + 140 + 146 / 2
= 137
Qu 2: YII =
3

Qu 1: Y! =

146 / 2 + 148 + 144 + 140 / 2

= 145
3
140 / 2 + 145 + 134 + 126 / 2
Qu 4: YIV =
= 137.33
3

Qu 3: YIII =

Gi tr hng tn kho bnh qun 6 thng u nm( triu ng):

Y =

124 + 137
=130.5
2

Gi tr hng tn kho bnh qun cho c nm( triu ng):

Y =

124 + 137 + 145 + 137.33

= 135.83.
4

Bi 4.3:

C ti li v tnh hnh nhp v xut hng ho ti kho ca mt cng ty trong thng

1 nh sau: (v: tri ng)
Tn` kho thng:
320
Ngy 5 nhp thm 50
Ngy 10 xut kho 60
Ngy 20 nhp kho 100
Ngy 25 xut kho 64
n cu thng, tnh hnh nhp xut ti kho khng c g thay .
Yu c:
1. Thnh lp dy s v` gi tr hng tnf kho ca cng ty
2. Hy tnh gi tr hng tn` kho bnh qun ti kho trong thng 1
Gii:
a. Dy s v gi tr hng tn kho ca cng ty trong thng 1( n v tnh: triu
ng)
Ngy
1
5
10
20
25
30
Gi tr hng
320
370
310
410
346
346
ho tn kho
b.Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun ti kho trong thng 1:
Y =

320* 4 + 370*5 + 310*10 + 410*5 + 346*6

= 345.2 (triu ng)
30

Bi 4.4:
c ti li v` s cng nhn trong danh sch ca mtj x nghip nm nh sau:
Ngy 1.1 x nghip c 146 CN
Ngy 14.1 x nghip c b sung thm 3 CN
Ngy 28.2 b sung thm 7 CN
Ngy 16.4 b sung thm 5 CN
Ngy 17.8 XN cho thi vicj 2 CN
Ngy 20.10 XN b sung thm 3 CN
Tuw` ns cu nm, s CN khng thay
Bits thm rng` nm nay l nm nhun`
Yu c:
1.
Xc lp dy s th gian. Dy so ny l dy s g?
2.
xc nh s CN bnh qun trong danh sch ca x nghip
Gii:
a. Dy s thi gian v s cng nhn trong danh sch ca x nghip nm N
( n v tnh: ngi)

Ngy
S CN

1.1
146

14.1
149

28.2
156

16.4
161

17.8
159

21.10
162

31.12
162

y l dy s thi im.
b. S cng nhn bnh qun trong danh sch ca x nghip:
Y =

146 *13 + 149*15 + 156* 48 + 161*123 + 159*65 + 162*72

= 158.17 (ngi)
366

( Trong nm c cc thng c 31 ngy l: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12 v thng 2 c 29 ngy

v nm l nm nhun).
Bi 4.5:
C ti li v` 1 s ch tiu ca x nghipj nh sau:
ch tiu
Thng 1
Thng2 Thang 3 Thng 4
Gi tr sn xut thc t (tri ng`) 316
336
338
t l hon thnh k hoch (%)
102
105
104
S CN thng (ngi)
300
304
304
308
Hy tnh:
1. Gi tr XS thcs t bnh qun m thng
2. S CN bnh qun m thng v ca qu
3. Nng suts lao ngj bnh qun ca m CN qu I
4. t lj % hon thnh k hoch bnh qun trong qu I
5. hy xy dngj dy s th gian v` nng sut lao ngj bnh qun trong
thng.
Gii:
a. Gi tr sn xut thc t bnh qun mi thng (triu ng):
Y =

316 + 336 + 338

= 330
3

b. S cng nhn bnh qun mi thng:

300 + 304
= 302
2
304 + 304
Thng 2: Y2 =
= 304
2
304 + 308
Thng 3: Y3 =
= 306
2

Thng 1: Y1 =

S cng nhn bnh qun ca qu:

Y =

300 / 2 + 304 + 304 + 308 / 2

= 304
3

c. Nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca mi cng nhn qu 1( triu ng/ ngi)
Nng sut = Gi tr sn xut/ lao ng = Tng gi tr sn xut/ S lao ng bnh
qun.
fi =

316 + 336 + 338

= 3.25
304

d. T l % hon thnh k hoch bnh qun trong qu 1

y1
Theo cng thc: tht = y v x =
kh

316 + 336 + 338

Nn ta c: y = 316 + 336 + 338 = 103.68
102 105 104

Nh vy, t l hon thnh vt mc sn xut l 3.68%.

e. Dy s thi gian v nng sut lao ng bnh qun thng.

Thng
Gi tr sn xut thc t
( triu ng)
S cng nhn bnh
qun thng (ngi)
Nng sut lao ng
bnh qun thng (triu
ng/ ngi)

316

336

338

302

304

306

1.046

1.105

1.104

Bi 4.6:
c ti li v` gi tr sx (GO) ca 1 x nghip ch bin X nh sau:
Nm
2002
2003
2004
2005
GO ( tri
2000
2200
2442
2704
ng`)
Yu c: tnh
1. lngj tng tuyt lin hon, nh gc qua cc nm
2. tc pht trin qua cc nm
3. tc tng qua cc nm

2006
3040

4. gi tr tuyt ca 1% tng qua cc nm

Gii:
a. Lng tng tuyt i lin hon qua cc nm:
2 = y2 y1 = 2200 2000 = 200 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2003 cao hn nm 2002 l 200
triu ng).
3 = y3 y2 = 2442 2200 = 242 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2004 cao hn nm 2003 l 242
triu ng).
4 = y4 y3 = 2704 2442 = 262 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2005 cao hn nm 2004 l 262
triu ng).
5 = y5 y4 = 3040 2704 = 336 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2006 cao hn nm 2005 l 336
triu ng).
Lng tng tuyt i nh gc:
1 = y1 y0 = 0 ( v nm 2002 ly lm gc).
2 = y2 y0 = 200 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2003 cao hn so vi 2002 l 200 triu
ng).
3 = y3 y0 = 442 (gi tr sn xut nm 2004 cao hn so vi 2002 l 442 triu ng).
4 = y4 y0 = 704 (gi tr sn xut nm 2005 cao hn so vi 2002 l 704 triu ng).
5 = y5 y0 = 1040 (gi tr sn xut nm 2006 cao hn so vi 2002 l 1040 triu
ng).
b. Tc pht trin qua cc nm:
* Gi tr lin hon:
t2 =

y2 2200
=
= 1.1 ( tc pht trin ca nm 2003 so vi nm 2002 l 10%).
y1 2000

t3 =

y3
= 1.11 (tc pht trin ca nm 2004 so vi nm 2003 l 11%).
y2

t4 =

y4
= 1.108 (tc pht trin ca nm 2005 so vi nm 2004 l 10.8%).
y3

t5 =

y5
= 1.124 (tc pht trin ca nm 2006 so vi nm 2005 l 12.4%).
y4

Gi tr nh gc:
T1 = 1 (v ly nm 2002 lm gc)
T2 =

y2
= 1.1
y1

T3 =

y3
= 1.221 ( tc pht trin nm 2004 so vi nm gc tng 22.1%)
y1

T4 =

y4
= 1.352 (tc pht trin nm 2005 so vi nm gc tng 35.2%)
y1

T5 =

y5
= 1.52 (tc pht trin nm 2006 so vi nm gc tng 52%).
y1

Tc pht trin bnh qun:

t =

n 1

= 4 1.1*1.11*1.108*1.12 = 4 1.52 = 1.109

Tc pht trin bnh qun qua cc nm l 10.9%.

c. Tc tng qua cc nm:
*Gi tr lin hon:
a2 = t2 1 = 1.1 1 = 0.1 ( nm 2003 so vi nm 2002).
a3 = t3 1 = 1.11 1 = 0.11 (nm 2004 so vi nm 2003).
a4 = t4 1 = 1.108 1 = 0.108 (nm 2005 so vi nm 2004).
a5 = t5 1 = 1.124 1 = 0.124 ( nm 2006 so vi nm 2005).
*Gi tr nh gc:
b1 = T1 1 = 0 ( ly nm 2002 lm gc).
b2 = T2 1 = 0.11
b3 = T3 1 = 0.221
b4 = T4 1 = 0.352
b5 = T5 1 = 0.52

Tc tng bnh qun:

a = t 1 = 1.109 1 = 0.109 nh vy tc tng bnh qun qua cc nm l 10.9%.

d. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng qua cc nm( 1% tng ng vi s tng ln mt

lng tuyt i).
c2 =

2
2000
=
= 20
a2 (%) 0.1*100

y2 2200
=
= 22
100 100
y
2442
c4 = 3 =
= 24.42
100 100
y
2709
c5 = 4 =
= 27.09
100 100
c3 =

Bi 4.7:

c ti li v` tnh hnh sx ca 1 XN nh sau:

ch tiu
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
1.Gi tr sx (tri ng`)
78
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.Lng tuytj tng (tri
...
...
13
...
...
9
...
ng`)
3.Tc pht trin lin hon(%) ...
...
...
...
106
...
105
4.Tcs tng(%)
...
16
...
...
...
...
...
5.Gi tr tuyt ca 1% tng
...
...
...
...
1,13 ...
...
( tr. ng`)
Yu c:
1. ch tiu lng tuytj nh trn l lngj tuytj lin hon hay nh
gc(bit rng` sn lng qua cc nm tng)
2. Tnh s li cn thi trong bng thng k trn
3. Tnh tc . Pht trin bnh qun hng` nm ch tiu gi tr sx ca XN

Gii:
a. Ch tiu lng tuyt i l lng tng tuyt i lin hon( sn lng qua cc
nm u tng).
b. Bng tnh hnh sn xut ca mt x nghip:
Cn c lp bng
a97 =

G97 G96
G97 = G96 .a97 + G96 = 0,16 78 + 78 = 90, 48
G96

98 = G98 G97 G98 = G97 + 98 = 90, 48 + 13 = 103, 48

G99
= 1,13 G99 = 113
100
G
G .t
113 106
t00 = 00 100 G00 = 99 00 =
= 119, 78
G99
100
100
c00 =

G01 = G00 + 01 = 119, 78 + 9 = 128, 78

G02 =

t02 .G01 128, 78 105

=
= 135, 22
100
100

V p dng cc cng thc:

 i = Gi Gi 1
G
ti = i
Gi 1
ai = ti 100

ci = i
ai

Ch tiu
1.Gi tr sn xut( G-triu
ng)
2.Lng tuyt i tng( triu ng)
3.Tc pht trin lin
hon(t- %)
4.Tc tng(a- %)
5.Gi tr tuyt i ca 1%
tng(c- triu ng)

96
78
-

97
90,4
8
12,4
8

98
103,4
8

99
113

13

9,52

16

114,3
8
14,38

109,
2
9,2

0,78

0,9

1,03

116

00
119,7
8

01
128,7
8

02

6,78

6,44

106

107,5

105

7,5

1,13

1,2

1,29

135,22

c. Tc pht trin bnh qun hng nm ch tiu gi tr sn xut ca x nghip:

t = n 1 ti = n 1

yn 6 135, 22
=
= 109.59
y1
78

Nh vy, t nm 1996 n nm 2002 tc pht trin bnh qun ca x nghip l

9.59%/nm.
Bi 4.8:
c ti li v` tc j pht trin nh gc ca ch tiu l nhun ca mt x
nghip hng nm nh sau: (2001=100%)
Nm
2001
2002
2003
2004
Tc pht trin nh gc (%)
100
112
134
146
Yu cu:
1. Biu din s liu l th thch hp
2. Tnh cc tc pht trin lien hon qua cc nm
3. Tc tng bnh qun ca li nhun trong c giai on 2001-2004
Gii:
Tc pht trin nh gc ca ch tiu li nhun ca x nghip: (2001 = 100 % )
Nm
2001 2002 2003 2004

Tc pht trin nh gc(%)

100
b. Tc pht trin lin hon qua cc nm:
T2 =

112

134

146

y2
y 112 y1
= 112 y2 = 112 y1 t2 = 2 =
= 112 ( nm 2002 so vi nm 2001).
y1
y1
y1

134
= 119.6% (nm 2003 so vi nm 2002).
112
146
T4 = t4 .t3 .t2 = 146 t3 =
= 108.9% (nm 2004 so vi nm 2003).
112*119.6
T3 = t3 .t2 = 134 t3 =

c. Tc tng bnh qun li nhun trong ca giai on 2001- 2004:

Ta c:
t = 3 t2 .t3 .t4 = 113.4 nn a = t 100 = 13.4%
Nh vy, tc tng bnh qun trong giai on ny ca x nghip l 13.4%.
Bi 4.9:
c ti liu v sn lng ca mt x nghip trong thng 2 nh sau:
Ngy
GT sn lng
Ngy
GT sn lng
(triu ng)
(triu ng)
1
201
15
196
2
202
16
190
3
204
17
228
4
191
18
230
5
196
19
234
6
210
20
233
7
205
21
236
8
213
22
234
9
215
23
238
10
210
24
239
11
208
25
245
12
219
26
242
13
220
27
246
14
223
28
250
Yu cu:
1. Theo anh ch, dy s trn l dy s g?
2. Xc nh kt qu s xut tng tun, thnh lp nn dy s mi. nhn xt?
3. Hy iu chnh dy s tn bng s bnh qun di ng vi khong cch san
bng l 5

Gii:
a. y l dy s thi k.
b. Ta c bn kt qu sn xut tng tun ca x nghip tron thng Hai:
Tun
GT sn lng(triu ng)
I
1409
II
1508
III
1547
IV
1694
Nhn xt: Gi tr sn lng tng dn theo tng tun.
c. iu chnh doanh s bng s bnh qun di ng vi khong cch san bng l
5:
Ngy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

GT sn lng
( triu ng)
201
202
204
191
196
210
205
213
215
210
208
219
220
223

S BQDD
198.8
200.6
201.2
203
207.8
210.6
210.2
213
214.4
216
213.2
209.6

Ngy

Gi tr sn lng
( triu ng)
196
190
228
230
234
233
236
234
238
239
245
242
246
250

S BQDD

15
211.4
16
213.4
17
215.6
18
223
19
232.2
20
233.4
21
235
22
236
23
238.4
24
239.6
25
242
26
244.6
27
28
Bi 4.10:
c ti liu v doanh thu ca mt doanh nghip nh sau: (VT:t ng)
Nm
Doanh thu
Nm
Doanh thu
1997
346
2002
516
1998
369
2003
467
1999
441
2004
521
2000
354
2005
566
648
2001
506
2006

Yu cu:
1. Hy xy dng ng hi quy tuyn tnh
2. V s liu ban u v kt qu ln th
3. Hy d on doanh thu ca doanh nghip nm 2010
Gii:
a. Xy dng ng hi quy tuyn tnh:
Phng trnh tuyn tnh: Yi = a + bti

y = na + b t
y t = a t + b t
t = 385 y = 4734 y t

Ta c:

i i

2
i

i i

= 28460

4734 = 10a + 55b

28460 = 55 a + 385b

a = 311.866

b = 29.3696
Nh vy phng trnh tuyn tnh l: Y = 311.886 + 29.3696t
i

b. D bo doanh thu ca doanh nghip nm 2010:

Vo nm 2010 th ti =14, ta c doanh thu l:
DT = 311.866 + 29.2696*14 = 723.04 ( t ng).
Chng 5 : CH S
Bi 5.1:
c ti liu v tnh hnh tiu th ca mt ca hng nh sau:
Sn phm
Gi bn (1000)
Lng hng bn (chic)
K gc
K bo co
K gc
K bo co
A
300
320
4000
4200
B
175
180
3100
3120
C
140
150
200
210
Yu cu:
1. Hy tnh cc ch s cn thit phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v gi bn
ring cho tng loi v cc loi sn phm
2. Hy tnh cc ch s cn thit phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v lng hng
bn ring cho tng loi v cc loi sn phm
3. Trnh by kt qu tnh ton trn bng thng k
Gii:
Sn
phm

Gi bn
( 1000)

Lng hng bn
(chic)

p1q1

p0 q1

p0 q0

K
gc
(1)
300
175
140

K bo
co
(2)
320
180
150

K bo
co
(3)
(4)
(5)=(2)(4) (6)=(1)(4) (7)=(1)(3)
A
4000
4200
1344000 1260000 1200000
B
3100
3120
561600
546000
542500
C
200
210
31500
29400
28000
Tng
1037100 1835400 1770500
a. Ch s phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v gi bn ring cho tng loi sn
phm:
* Sn phm A:
K gc

p1 320
=
= 1.066
p0 300

i pa =

p = p1 p0 = 320 300 = 20

Gi ca sn phm A vo k bo co tng 6.6% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 20000ng.
Sn phm B:
ip =

p1 180
=
= 1.028
p0 175

p = p1 p0 = 180 175 = 5

Gi ca sn phm B vo k bo co tng 2.8% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 5000ng.
Sn phm C:
ip =

p1 150
=
= 1.071
p0 140

p = p1 p0 = 150 140 = 10

Gi ca sn phm C vo k bo co tng 7.1% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 10000ng.
Ch s chung v gi bn:
Ip =

p q = 1937100 = 1.055
p q 1835400
) = p q p q = 1937100 1835400 = 101700
1 1

0 1

pq( p

1 1

0 1

Nh vy, k bo co gi chung cho tt c cc sn phm tng 5.5% tng ng vi

lng tng v gi l 101700000ng.
b. Ch s phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v lng bn ring cho tng loi sn
phm:

* Sn phm A:
q = q1 q0 = 4200 4000 = 200

q1 4200
=
=1.05
q0 4000

iq =

Lng bn ca sn phm A vo k bo co tng 5% so vi k gc, tng ng mt

s tng v lng l 200 chic.
Sn phm B:
iq =

q1 3120
=
= 1.006
q0 3100

q = q1 q0 = 3120 3100 = 20

Lng bn ca sn phm B vo k bo co tng 0.6% so vi k gc, tng ng

mt s tng v lng l 20 chic.
Sn phm C:
iq =

q1 210
=
= 1.05
q0 200

q = q1 q0 = 210 200 = 10

Lng bn ca sn phm C vo k bo co tng 5% so vi k gc, tng ng mt

s tng v lng l 10 chic.
Ch s chung v lng bn:
Iq =

p q = 1835400 = 1.036
p q 1770500
) = p q p q = 1835400 1770500 = 64900
0 1

0 0

pq( q

0 1

0 0

Nh vy, k bo co lng bn chung cho tt c cc sn phm tng 3.6% tng

ng vi lng tng v lng bn l 64900000chic.
c. Bng thng k cc ch s:
Sn phm
Ch s v gi bn
Ch s v lng bn
A
1.066
1.05
B
1.028
1.006
C
1.071
1.05
Ch s chung
1.055
1.036
Bi 5.2:
c ti liu v tnh hnh sn sut mt s mt hng ti 2 x nghip trong cng 1 cng
ty qua 2 thng nh sau:
Tn x Sn phm A
Sn phm B

nghip

Gi thnh n v Sn lng (kg)

Gi thnh n v Sn lng (kg)
(1000)
(1000)
Thng Thng2 Thng Thng Thng Thng Thng Thng
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
X
20
19
5000
6000
210
205
80
100
Y
21
19
7000
8000
220
210
50
60
Yu cu: Hy tnh cc ch s phn nh bin ng v cc ch tiu sau y:
1. V gi thnh n v snn phm:
a. Ca ton b sn phm ca mt x nghip
b. Ca ton b sn phm ca c cng ty
c. Ca mi sn phm ca c cng ty
2. V sn lng sn phm
a. Ca ton b sn phm ca mt x nghip
b. Ca ton b sn phm ca c cng ty
c. Ca mi sn phm ca c cng ty
3. Phn tch cc nhn t anhhr hng n s bin ng tng chi ph sn xut
ca ton b sn phm cng ty
Gii:
Gi thnh
(1000 )
T1
T2
Z0
Z1
(1)
(2)
20
19
210
205
Tng

Sn lng
Tn
(kg)
Tn x
Z1Q1
Z0Q1
Z0Q0
sn
T1
T2
nghip
Q0
Q2
phm
(3)
(4) (5)=(2)(4) (6)=(1)(4) (7)=(1)(3)
A
5000 6000
114000
120000
100000
X
B
80
100
20500
21000
16800
134500
141000
116800
800
A
20
19 7000
152000
160000
140000
Y
0
B
220
210
50
60
12600
13200
11000
Tng
164600
173200
151000
Tng ca tt c ch tiu
299100
314200
267800

a. Ch s phn nh bin ng v ch tiu gi thnh n v sn phm ca ton b

sn phm mi x nghip:

z q
z q
z q
=
z q
z q
=
z q
z q
=
z q

I PX =

1 1

1 1

0 1

164600
= 0,95 = 95%
173200

141000
= 1, 207 = 120, 7%
116800

173200
= 1,147 = 114, 7%
151000

I qY

I qX

134500
= 0,953 = 95,3%
141000

I PY

0 1
0

Gi thnh sn phm ca x nghip X gim 4,7%; ca x nghip Y gim 5%.

Sn lng sn phm ca x nghip X tng 20,7%; ca x nghip Y tng 14,7%.
b. Ch s phn nh cc ch tiu v gi thnh v sn lng ton b sn phm ca
cng ty:
Ip =

z q
z q

299100
= 0,9519 = 95,19%
314200

z q
z q

314200
= 1,173 = 117,3%
267800

1 1

0 0

Iq =

0 1

0 0

gi thnh sn phm ca cng ty gim 4,81%

S lng sn phm ca cng ty tng 17,3%.
c.Tnh ch s chung v gi thnh, s lng ca mi sn phm cng ty
Gi thnh
T1
T2
(1)
(2)

S lng
T2
(4)

T1
(3)

X
Y

20
21

19
19

5000
7000

6000
8000

X
Y
Tng

210
220

205
210

80
50

100
60

Z1q1
(5) = (1)
(4)
114000
152000
266000
20500
12600
33100

Zoq1
(6)= (1)
(4)
120000
168000
288000
21000
13200
34200

Zoqo
(7)= (1)
(3)
100000
147000
247000
16800
11000
27800

IpA =

z q
z q

1 1

0 1

266000
= 0,923 = 92,3%
288000

IqA =

288000
= 1,165 = 116,5%
247000

IpB =

33100
= 0,967 = 96, 7%
34200

IqB =

z q
z q

0 1

0 0

34200
= 1, 23 = 123%
27800

gi thnh sn phm A ca c cng ty gim 7,7%, sn phm B ca cng ty gim

3,3%.
S lng sn phm A c cng ty tng 16,5%, sn phm B tng 23%.
3. phn tch cc yu t nh hng n s bin ng tng hi ph sn xut ton b
sn phm ca cng ty:

z q = z q .z q
z q z q z q
( z q z q ) = ( z q z q ) + ( z q z q )
1 1

1 1

0 1

0 0

0 1

0 0

-khi chi ph sn xut tng

11,68% th gi thnh sn
299100 299100 314200

=
.
phm gim 4,9% v sn
267800 314200 267800
(299100 267800) = (299100 314200) + (314200 267800) lng tng 17,3%.
1,1468 = 0,951.1,173
-chi ph sn xut tng
31300 = 15100 + 46400
31300(nghn ng) th gi
thnh sn phm gim 15100(nghn ng) v sn lng tng 46400(nghn ng).
Bi 5.3:
c ti liu v tnh hnh tiu th hng ha ti mt cng ty qua 2 nm nh sau:
1 1

Nhm hng

0 0

1 1

0 0

0 1

Mc tiu th (1000 )
2007
2008
3000
3000
2500
4200
4500
7800

A
B
C
Yu cu:
1. Tnh ch s chung v gi c

0 0

Tc pht trin % v
2007
2008
100,0
100,0
93,3
180,0
86,6
200,0

2. Tnh ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th

3. Phn tch nh hng ca s thay i gi c v lng hng ha tiu th i

vi s thay i mc tiu th hng ha.
Gii:
a.tnh ch s chung v gi c.
Ip =

pq
pq
ip

1 1

1 1

300 + 4200 + 7800

15000
=
= 0,908 = 90,8%
300
4200
7800 16508,5
+
+
100% 93,3% 86, 6%

pq ( p ) = p1q1 p0 q0 = 1508,53

b.Ch s chung v lng hng ho tiu th.

Iq =

iqp q
p q

0 0

0 0

100.300 + 180.2500 + 200.4500

= 165%
3000 + 2500 + 4500

c.Phn tch nh hng ca s thay i gi c v lng hng ho tiu th i vi s

thay i mc tiu th hng ho.
Ta c: phng trnh kinh t:

M = pq
pq = pq p q
pq p q pq
1 1

1 1

0 1

0 0

0 1

0 0

15000 15000 16508,5

=

10000 16508,5 10000

1,5

= 0,9

. 1,65

( p1q1 p0 q0 ) = ( p1 q1 p0 q1 ) + ( p0 q1 p0 q0 )
(15000 10000) = (15000 16508,5) + (16508,5 10000)

5000
= ( -1508,5 )
+ 6508,5
Nhn xt: Mc tiu th hng ho qua 2 nm tng 50% tng ng mt s tng v
lng l 5 triu ng, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
- Do gi bn gim 10%, tng ng lm mc tiu thu hng ho gim 1,508
triu ng.
- Do lng hng ho tng 65%, tng ng lm mc tiu th hng ho tng 6,5
triu ng.
Bi 5.4:
c ti liu v tnh hnh tiu th hng ha ti mt thnh ph nh sau:
Tn hng
T trng mc tiu th
Ch s gi c (%)
hng ha k bo co (%)
A
30
120

B
45
105
C
25
100
Bit thm rng:mc tiu th hng ha chung cho c 3 mt hng k bo co so vi
k gc tng 25% vi gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng l 1,2 t ng
Yu cu:
1. Tnh ch s chung v gi c v tin chi thm ca ngi mua do tng gi
2. Tnh ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th v s tin chi thm ca ngi
mua do mua thm hng ha
3. Phn tch nh hng ca cc nhn t n bin ng ca mc tiu th hng
ha qua hai k
Gii:
T trng mc tiu th
hng ho k bo co
Tn hng

p1 q1
p1 q1

A
B
C

30
45
25

Ch s gi
(ip)
120
105
100

Theo gi thuyt: mc tiu th hng ho chung cho c 3 mt hng k bo co so vi

k gc tng 25%

pq
pq

1 1

= 125

0 0

V gi tr tuyt i ca mt phn trm tng l 1,2 t ng

p q = 1, 2
p q = 1, 2 100 = 120(ty )
(4) p q = 1, 25 120 = 150(ty )
0 0

0 0

1 1

p1q1 ( A)
= 30% p1q1 ( A) = 45
p1q1

Tng t: p1q1 ( B) = 67,5

p1q1 (C ) = 37,5
1.

Ch s chung v gi c:
Ip =

pq
pq
ip

1 1

1 1

150
= 1, 0769
45 67,5 37,5
+
+
1, 2 1, 05
1

tin chi thm ca ngi mua do tng gi

45 67,5 37,5
pq ( P ) = 150
+
+
= 10, 714(ty )
1
1, 2 1, 05

2. Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th:

Ip =

p1q1 = p1q1 = 1, 0769

poq1 p1q1

p 0q1 =
Iq =

ip
p1q1
= 139, 285
ip

p0q1 = 139, 285 = 1,1607

p0q0 120

tin chi thm ca ngi mua do mua thm hng ho

pq ( P ) = 139, 285 120 = 19, 285(ty )

c. phn tch nh hng ca cc nhn t n bin ng ca mc tiu th hng ho 2

k

p1q1 = p1q1 p0q1

p0q0 p0q1 p0qo
p q p q = ( p q p q ) +( p q p q )
1 1

0 0

1 1

0 1

0 1

0 0

150
150
139, 285
=

(ty )
120 139, 285
120

(150-120) =(150 139.285) + (139,285 120)

1,25 =1,0769 1,1607
30= 10,715+ 19,285
Nhn xt: Mc tiu th hng ha 2 k tng 25%, tng ng mt s tng v
lng 30 t, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
-Do gi c ca 3 loi hng ha tng 7,69%, lm gi c bnh qun 10,715 (t
ng).
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng ha mua ca 2 k lm gi c bnh
qun tng 19,285 t ng.

Bi 5.5:
c ti liu v mt x nghip nh sau:
Sn phm
Chi ph sn xut (triu ng)
Qy 1
Qu 2

Tc tng sn
lng qu 2 so qu
1 (%)
15
5

A
105
110
B
620
650
Yu cu:
1. Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t: ch s sn lng, ch s tng chi ph sn
xut, ch s gi thnh
2. Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t: ch s tng chi ph sn xut, chi s gi
thnh, ch s sn lng
Gii:
Sn phm

Gi tr sn xut
Q1
Q2

A
B

105
110
620
650
(zoqo)
(z1q1)
1.Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t
*ch s sn lng:
Iq =

iqz q
z q

0 0

0 0

1,15.105 + 1, 05.620
= 1, 0644
105 + 620

*ch s tng chi ph sn xut:

Izq =

z q
z q

1 1

0 0

110 + 650
= 1, 0482
105 + 620

*ch s gi thnh:
Iz =

Izq 1, 0482
=
= 0,9847
Iq 1, 0644

2.Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t:

*Ch s tng chi ph sn xut:
I ZQ =

z q
z q

1 1

0 0

= 1, 0482

Tc tng sn
lng qu II so
vi qu I
15
5

Tc pht
trin q1/qo=iq
115
105

*ch s gi thnh:

z q
z q

IZ =

1 1
0 1

M:
q1

z q = iq.z q = q
0 1

0 0

.z0 q0

= 1,15.105 + 1, 05.620 = 771, 75

Iz =

z q
z q

1 1

0 1

110 + 650
= 0,9847
771, 75

*ch s sn lng:
Iq =

Izq
= 1, 0644
Iz

Bi 5.6:
c ti liu v tnh hnh mc tiu th hng ha v lng hng ha ti mt th trng
nh sau:
Tn hng
T trng mc tiu th
T l tng lng hng tiu
hng ha k gc (%)
th so k gc (%)
A
30
5,0
B
25
4,0
C
23
4,5
D
15
8,0
E
7
12,0
Yu cu:
1. Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th
2. Ch s chung v gi c, bit rng mc tiu th hng ha chung k bo co
tng so vi k gc 10%
Gii:
a.Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th:
Iq =

i p q
p q
q

0 0

0 0

1, 05 0,3 + 1, 04 0, 25 + ... + 1,12 0, 07

= 1, 055 hay 105,5%
0,3 + 0, 25 + 0, 23 + 0,15 + 0, 07

b.Bng tnh hnh mc tiu th hng ha v lng hng ha ti mt th trng:

iq
Tn hng
T trng mc tiu th hng
ha k gc(%)
A
30
1,05
B
25
1,04

C
D
E

23
15
7

1,045
1,08
1,12

Ta c mc tiu th hng ha chung k bo co tng so vi k gc l 10% nn

I pq = 110% hay I pq = 1,1
I pq =

pq
pq

1 1

0 0

1,1

pq
M I pq = I p I q I p = I = 1, 05 = 1, 047
q

Bi 5.7:
Mt x nghip sn xut 3 loi sn phm (A,B,C). Tng chi ph sx k gc ca 3 sn
phm nh sau: sn phm A chim 27%,sn phm B chim 15%, sn phm B chim
58%. K bo co so vi k gc sn lng sn phm A tng 5%, sn phm B tng
7%, sn phm C tng 8% so vi k gc.Tng chi ph sn xut k bo co l 956
triu ng, tng 8% so vi k gc.
Yu cu: hy tnh:
1. Ch s chung v khi lng sn phm
2. Ch s chung v gi thnh
3. Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i ca tng chi ph sn xut
qua 2 k
Gii:
Sn phm
A
B
C
Theo gi thuyt:

z q

1 1

= 956

z q = 1, 08
z q
zoqo = 885,185
Izq =

1 1

0 0

z0 q0
(%)
z0 q0

27
15
58

q1
= iq
q0

z0 q0

1,05
1,07
1,2

238,999
132,777
513,4073

a.Ch s chung v khi lng sn phm:

Iq =

i z q
z q

q 0 0
0 0

105.238,999 + 1, 07.132, 777 + 1, 2.513, 4073

= 1,13999
885,185

b.Ch s chung v gi thnh:

Iz =

I zq
Iq

1, 08
= 0,9473
1,3999

c.phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i ca tng chi ph sn xut qua 2 k.

Ta c:

z q

0 1

n!

r !( n r )!

q1
z0q.
=0

z q = z q . z q
z q z q z q
z q =

( z q
) ( z q
1 1

1 1

0 0

0 1

1 1

0 0

iq z0=q. 0

1009,1091

0 0

1 1

z0q+
1

z( q
)

0 1

z0q0

1,08= 0,9473.1,13999
70,815 =53,1094+ 123,9241

Nhn xt:Tng chi ph sn xut tng 8% tng ng vi mt lng tng tuyt i

70,815 triu ng, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
-Gi thnh gim 5,37%, lm tng chi ph sn xut gim 53,1094( n v)
-Do c s thay i kt cu v khi lng 3 sn phm lm cho tng chi ph sn xut
tng 123,92 triu ng.
Bi 5.8:
c ti liu v tnh hnh tiu th mt loi hng ha ca mt cng ty nh sau:
Khu vc
Thng 6
Thng 7
Gi bn
Lng hng
Gi bn
Lng hng
(1000)
bn ra (gi)
(1000)
bn ra (gi)
I
5,5
5000
6,5
7000
II
5,6
5000
6,2
6000
Yu cu:
1. Tnh gi bn hng bnh qun 1 gi hng ha ni trn cho tng thng
2. Lp h thng ch s phn tch s bin ng gi bn bnh qun ni trn
3. Phn tch s bin ng ca doanh s bn ra theo cc nhn t: gi bn, kt
cu lng hng v khi lng hng bn ra

Gii:
aTtnh gi bn bnh qun 1gi hng ha trn cho tng thng.
*thng 6:
p0 =

pq
q

0 0
0

5,5.5000 + 5, 6.5000
= 5,55(ngdong )
10000

*thng 7:
p1 =

pq
q

1 1

6,5.7000 + 6, 25.6000
= 6,3846(ngdong )
13000

b.lp h thng ch s phn tch s bin ng gi bnh qun ni trn:

ta c:
p 01 =

pq
q

0 1

5,5.7000 + 5, 6.6000
= 5,5461(ngdong )
13000

p1
p p
= 1 . 01
p 0 p 01 p0

( p p ) = ( p p ) +( p
1

01

01

p0

6, 3846 6,3846 5,5461

=
.
5, 55
5,5461 5,55

( 6, 3846 5,55 ) = ( 6,3846 5,5461) + ( 5,5461 5,55)

1,15 = 1,151187.0,99
0,8346 = 0,8385 + 0, 0039

Gi bn bnh qun tng 15% tng ng vi tng 1lng tuyt i l 0,8346(ngn

ng).
Do gi bn ca 2 khu vc tng15,12% lm gi bn bnh qun tng 0,8385(ngn
ng).
Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng bn ra ca 2 k lm gi bn bnh qun gim
0,0039( ngn ng).
c.phn tch bin ng ca doanh s bn ra theo nhn t: gi bn, kt cu lng hng,
khi lng hng bn ra.

 p q = 55500
p q = 83000
q = 10000
q = 13000
p . p p . p p . p
pq
=
.
.
p q p q p . p p . p
( p q p q ) = ( p p ) . q + ( p
0 0

1 1

1 1

0 0

1 1

01

01

0 0

01

01

p0 . q1 + ( p1 p0 ) . p0

82999,8 6,3846.13000 5,54651.13000 5,55.13000

=
.
.
55500
5,5461.13000 5,55.13000 5,55.10000
304599,8 = 10900,5 + ( 50, 7) + 10650

1, 5 = 1,15.0,819.1,3
27499,8 = 10900,5 50, 7 + 16650

Nhn xt: Doanh s bn ra tng 50%, tng ng mt s tng v lng l 27,499

triu ng, do nh hng ca 3 nhn t:
-Gi bn tng 15%, lm gi bn bnh qun 2 thng tng 10,9 triu ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng bn ra lm cho doanh s bn ra gim 50,7
nghn ng.
-Do khi lng hng bn ra tng 30% lm cho doanh s bn ra tng 16650 nghn
ng.
Bi 5.9:
C ti liu v tnh hnh sn xut ca mt a phng nh sau:
Ngnh
Gi tr sn xut (t ng)
S lao ng (ngi)
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
A
15000
11000
200
140
B
8000
24000
200
317
Yu cu:
1. Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s bin ng nng sut lao ng bnh
qun ton a phng
2. Phn tch s bin ng gi tr sn xut ca a phng theo cc nhn t:
nng sut lao ng, kt cu lao ng v s lng lao ng
Gii:
a.Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s bin ng nng sut lao ng bnh qun
ton a phng:
Ta c: Nng sut= Gi tr sn xut/ s lao ng

0 0

W 01

01

140
317
+ 8000.
200
200 = 50, 7721
140 + 317

15000.

W 1 W 1 W 01
=
.
W 0 W 01 W 0

(W

T1

W T . T
W

=
=
T

) (

) (

W 0 = W 1 W 01 + W 01 W 0

1, 3319 = 1,5099.0,88211
19, 086 = 25,8639 6, 7779

- Nng sut lao ng bnh qun qua 2 nm tng 33,19%, tng ng tng 1 lng
tuyt i l 19,086(t ngi).
- Do nng sut lao ng ca 2 nghnh tng 50,99%, lm nng sut lao ng bnh
qun tng 25,8639(t ngi).
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lao ng lm nng sut lao ng bnh qun gim
6,7779( t ng/ ngi)
b. phn tich s bin ng gi tr sn xut theo 3 nhn t : nng sut lao ng, kt cu
lao ng, s lng lao ng.
W 1. T1

W 0 . T0

W 1. T1 W 01.
.
W 01. T1 W 0.

( W . T W
1

T. W . T
T W . T
. T) =( W . T W .
)T (
0

01

+W 01.

T
.0
1 W

) T(
1

W+ .01 T W .0 0 T

76, 586.457 76, 586.457 50, 7221.457 57, 5.457

=
.
.
57, 5.400
50, 7221.457 57, 5.457 57, 5.400
11999,8 = 11819,8 3097,5 + 3277, 5

1, 52 =1, 5.0,882.1,14
11999,8 = 11819,8 3097,5 +3277, 5

Nhn xt:
Ga tr sn xut tng 52% tng ng 1lng tng tuyt i l 11999,8 t ng.
-Do nng sut lao ng ca 2 nghnh tng 50% lm gi tr sn xut tng 11819,8 t
ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lao ng lm gi tr sn xut gim 3097,5 t ng.
-Do s lng lao ng tng 14% lm gi tr sn xut tng 3277,5 t ng.
Bi 5.10:
C ti liu v 3 x nghip cng sn xut mt lai sn phm nh sau:
X nghip
Gi thnh n v (1000)
T trng sn lng (%)
Qu I
Qu II
Qu I
Qu II

A
11,0
10,23
50
25
B
12,0
11,25
30
25
C
13,0
13,11
20
50
Yu cu:
1. Hy tnh gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm cc qu ca c x nghip
2. Dung phng php ch s phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay
i gi thnh bnh qun
Gii:
a. Tnh gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm cc qu ca c x nghip.
Z 0 = Z 0 d 0 = 11, 05 + 12, 03 + 13, 02 = 11, 7

Z 1 = Z1d1 = 10, 23.0, 25 + 11, 25.0, 25 + 13,11.0,5 = 11,92

b.Dng phng php ch s phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i gi

tr bnh qun.
Z 1 Z 1 Z 01
=
.
Z 0 Z 01 Z 0

Vi:
Z 01 = Z 0 d1 = 11, 25 + 12, 025 + 13, 05 = 12, 25

(Z

) (

) (

Z 0 = Z 1 Z 01 + Z 01 Z 0

1, 02 = 0,97.1, 047
0, 225 = 0,325 + 0,55

Gi thnh bnh qun tng 2% tng ng tng 1 lng tuyt i l 0,225

(ngn ng)
-Do gi thnh gim 3%lm gi thnh bnh qun gim 0,325ngn ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu sn lng lm gi thnh bnh qun tng 0,55 ngn
ng.
CHNG 6: IU TRA CHN MU V C LNG
Bi 6.1:
trong mt x nghip gm 1000 cng nhn, nghin cu v tnh hnh nng sut
lao ng , ngi ta chon ra 100 cng nhn iu tra theo phng php chn ngu
nhin n thun (chn nhiu ln), kt qu iu tra nh sau:
Nng sut lao ng
S cng nhn
(kg/ngy)
400 500
15

500 600
60
600 700
25
Yu cu: Hy tnh:
1. Nng sut lao ng binh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra
2. Phng sai mu v nng sut lao ng
3. Sai s bnh qun chon mu khi suy rng nng sut lao ng bnh qun chung
cho c x nghip
4. T l v phng sai mu v s cng nhn c nng sut t 600 tr ln
5. Sai s bnh qun chn mu khi suy rng ra t l chung ca c x nghip v
s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln.
Gii:
a. Nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra
x=

x .f
f
i

450.15 + 550.60 + 650.25

= 560 ( kg/ngy)
100

b.

phng sai mu v nng sut lao ng

S 2 =

(x x )
f
i

fi

(450 560) 2 15 + (550 560)2 60 + (650 560)2 25

=
=3900
100

c.Sai s bnh qun chn mu khi suy rng nng sut lao ng bnh qun chung
cho c x nghip:
Xn =

2
S 2
3900
=
=
= 6, 276
n
n 1
100 1

d.T l s cng nhn bnh qun c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:
w=

25
= 0, 25
100

Phng sai mu v s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:

S 2 = w(1-w)=0,25(1-0,25)=0,1875

e.Sai s bnh qun chn mu khi suy rng ra t l chung ca c x nghip v s

cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:
Fn =

S 2
0,1875
=
= 0, 0435
n 1
100 1

Bi 6.2:

 diu tra v nng sut lao ng ca 2000 cng nhn trong mt daonh nghip,
ngi ta chon ra 200 cng nhn bng phng php ngu nhin n thun (chn 1
ln) kt qu iwuf tra nh sau:
Nng sut lao ng
S cng nhn (ngi)
(kg/thng)
Di 500
20
500-800
45
800-1200
75
1200-1500
37
1500 tr ln
23
Yu cu: Hy tnh:
1. Phm vi sai s chon mu khi suy rng
2. T l mu v s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 1200 kg tr ln
3. Phm vi sai s chon mu khi suy rng ra t l chung v s cng nhn c nng
sut lao ng t 1200 kg tr ln
Vi tin cy l 86,84%
Gii:
a.Phm vi sai s chn mu khi suy rng

( xz

/2

. x n ; x + z / 2 . x n

Ta c:
x=

x .f
f
i

= 995, 75

Phng sai mu:

s

(x x )
=
f
i

Xn =

fi

(350 995, 75) 2 20 + ... + (1650 995, 75)2 23

=
= 141044, 4375
200

S 2 N n
141044, 4375 2000 200

= 25, 25
n 1
N
200 1
2000

Tra bng: Z / 2 = 1,96

phm vi sai s:
= z / 2 . x n = 1,96.25, 25 = 49, 49

b.t l mu v s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 1200 kg tr ln:

w=

37 + 23
= 0,3
200

c.

Vi = 13,16

Z / 2 = 1,51
Phm vi sai s chn mu khi nng sut lao ng t 1200kg tr ln:
= Z / 2 . Fn

Vi:
Fn =

2 N n
W (1 W ) N n
0.3(1 0,3) 2000 200
.
=
.
=
.
= 0, 0308
n 1 N
n 1
N
200 1
2000

phm vi sai s:
= Z / 2 . Fn = 1,51.0, 0308 = 0, 046508

Bi 6.3:
trong mt kho hp, ngi ta ly ngu nhin ra ng 400 hp kim tra v
thy c 20 hp bi bin cht. Hy suy rng t l ch phm ca ton kho vi yu
cu phm vi sai s l 0,02. S suy rng ny bo m trnh tin cy l bao
nhiu?
Gii:
T l ph phm ca ton kho l: w= 20/400=0,05
w(1 w)
0, 05(1 0, 05)
=
= 0, 0109
n 1
400 1
= Z / 2 . Fn = 0, 02
Fn =

Suy rng t l ph phm ca ton kho :

w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 05 0, 02 p 0, 05 + 0, 02
0, 03 p 0, 07

T l ph phm ton kho nm trong khong 0,03 v 0,07

*S suy rng ny m bo tin cy l:
= Z / 2 . Fn = 0, 02
Z / 2 .0.0109 = 0, 02 Z / 2 = 1,83

Tra bng:
Z / 2 = 1,83 = Z0,4664
1 = 2 0, 4664

Vy tin cy l: 93,28%

Bi 6.4:
ngi ta cn t chc mt cuc iu tra chn mu xc nh t l s cng nhn
vin trong cc x nghip, ang theo hc cc lp i hc ti chc. Tt c cc x
nghip cng nghip trong a phng c chia thnh 4 t nh sau:
Phn t cc x nghip theo S x nghip
S cng nhn (ngi)
s lng cng nhn
(ngi)
Di 500
2
2.000
500 700
8
5.000
700 900
6
4.900
900 tr ln
6
5.100
Dng phng php chon phn loi chon 10% s ngi trong mi t, ngi ta xc
nh c t l cng nhn vin ang theo hc cc lp i hc ti chc nh sau: t 1
c 2%, t 2 c 3% t 3 c 5%, t 4 c 7%. Vi xc sut 0,95 hy xc nh t l
cng nhn vin ngnh cng nghip ca a phng ang theo hc cac lp i hc
bn thi gian.
Gii:
Phn t theo s
lng cng
nhn(ngi)
Di 500
500-700
700-900
900 tr ln
N

S x
nghip
5
8
6
6

S cng
nhn
(ngi)

Ni

n i = 10% N i

Wi

2000
5000
4900
5100

10000
40000
29400
30600
110000

1000
4000
2940
3060

0,02
0,03
0,05
0,07

Vi tin cy 95%
Z / 2 = 1,96

T l cng nhn ang theo hc ti lp ti chc l:

w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn

Trc ht ta tnh:

 Fn =

.
i =1

wi (1 wi ) N i2 N i n i
.
.
ni 1 N 2
Ni

0, 02.(1 0, 02) 100002 10000 1000

0, 07(1 0, 07) 30600 2 30600 3060
=
.
.
+ ... +
.
.
1000 1
1100002
10000
3060 1
110000 2
30600
= 1, 46.107 + 8, 66.10 7 + 1.04.10 6 + 1, 48.10 6 = 1,87.10 3

w=

wn
n

i i
i

0, 02.1000+ 0, 03.4000 + 0, 05.2940 +0, 07.3060

=
0, 0455=
11000

t l cng nhn ang theo hc lp ti chc l:

w Z / 2 . Fn P w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 0455 1,96.1,87.103 P 0, 0455 + 1,96.1,87.103
0, 042 P 0, 049

Vy t l cng nhn ang theo hc lp ti chc nm trong khong:

0,042 n 0,049
Bi 6.5:
Mt x nghip, trong thng mt sn xut c 100 hm chi tit my ( mi hm c
400 chi tit). Ngi ta t chc iu tra chn mu bng cch rt ngu nhin c 5
hm. Ngi ta em cn li cc chi tit my trong cc hm c chn ny v coa
kt qu nh sau:
Th t hm
Trng lng bnh qun
mt chi tit my (g)
1
50
2
49
3
53
4
53
5
55
Yu cu:
1. Hy c lng trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my sn xut trong thng
vi xc sut 0,9545
2. Tnh xc xut cho trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my sn xut trong
thng khng lch qu 3 gram so vi trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my
trong cc hm iu tra
3. S hm cn chon ra diu tra (chn ngu nhin n thun khng tr li)
sao cho vi xc sut 0,6833, phm vi chon mu khi tnh trng lng bnh
qun mi chi tit my khng vt qu 0,7 gram

Gii:
a.c lng trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my sn xut trong thng
x kx =

x = 52
n

( x x )
5

2
kx

kx

i =1

.ni

n
i =1

( 50 52 )
=

.400 + ( 49 52 ) .400 + ( 53 52 ) .400 + ( 55 52 ) .400

2000
2

= 4,8

Xc sut = 0,4595
Z / 2 2
k

xn =
=

sk x

k 1

k ni 2
i =1

K k
K

4,8 5.5.4002 100 5

.
.
= 1, 0677
5 1 20002
100

Trng lng bnh qun mi chi tiy my sn xut trong thng l:

x Z / 2 . xn X x Z / 2 . xn
52 2 1, 0677 52 + 2 1, 0677
49,8646 X 54,1354

Vy trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my trong thng nm trong khong t:
49,8646 n 54,1354 (g)
b. phm vi sai s
= Z / 2 . xn = 3

Tnh xc sut:
Z / 2 .1, 0677 = 3 Z / 2 = 2,809 = Z0,005
1 = 0, 01
(1 = 2.0, 005)

Vy xc sut l 99%
c.Tnh s hm cn chn ra iu tra bit xc sut: 0,6833

 Z / 2 1

= 0, 7( g ) n =

Z 2 / 2 . 2 12.4,8
=
= 9,8
2x
0, 72

Vy s hm cn iu tra l 10 hm.
Bi 6.6:
Trong mt x nghip gm 300 cng nhn, ngi ta tin hnh iu tra chon mu
nh nghin cu tui ngh ca cng nhn. S cng nhn c chon l 15 ngi
c tui ngh ln lt l: 5;7;4;9;11;1;8;3;10;6;18;22;13;10 v 13
Yu cu:
1. Tnh tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra
2. Phng sai v tui ngh ca s cng nhn c iu tra
3. c lng tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn trong c x nghip, vi xc
sut 0,935
Gii:
a.Tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra:
x=

5 + 7 + ... + 13
= 9,33
15

b. Phng sai v tui ngh:

S 2 =

(x x )
f
i

fi

(5 9, 33) 1 + ... + (13 9,33)2 1

= 29, 42
15
2

c.c lng tui ngh bnh qun s cng nhn:

Ta c: 1 = 0,935 Z / 2 = 1,84
Sai s bnh qun chn mu:
Xn =

2 N n
29, 42 300 15

= 1,365
n
N
15
300

Khong c lng tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn trong c x nghip:
x Z / 2 . X n X x + Z / 2 . X n
9, 33 1,84 1,365 X 9,33 + 1,84 1,365
6,82 X 11,84

Nh vy tui ngh bnh qun ca cng nhn nm trong khong 6,82 n 11,84.
Bi 6.7:

 nghin cu chi tit cc h gia nh ngi ta chia cc h gia nh ca mt thnh

ph lm 3 loi. Ngoi gm 500 h, ven gm 1000 h, trung tm gm 1500 h.
Sau ngi ta ch ngu nhin 10 h ngoi , 20 h ven , 30 h trung tm. D
liu c sp xp s b v chi tiu hng thng (triu ng) ca cc h nh sau:
Ngoi :
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.6
H ven :
2,2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2..8
3.0
3.5
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.4
6.5
6.8
7.0
7.3
8.0
H trung tm:
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.3
4.8
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.9
8.9
9.2
9.3
9.3
Yu cu:
1. D liu ny c thu thp t phng php chon mu no
2. c lng chi tiu trung bnh mi h ca thnh ph vi tin cy 95%
3. c lng t l h ca thnh ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln vi
tin cy 99%
4. Xc nh kch thc cn iu tra nu cn c l chi tiu trung bnh mt h
vi di khong tin cy 1,1 triu ng/h vi tin cy 99%
5. Xc nh kch thc mu cn iu tra nu cn c lng t l h ca thnh
ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln vi di khong tin cy l 4,5%
v tin cy 95%
Gii:
a. D liu ny c thu thp theo phng php chn mu phn loi.
b. c lng ch tiu trung bnh ca 1 h thnh ph (1-=0,95)
Ta c:
x=

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h ngoi :

x1 =

0,8 + 1, 09 + ..... + 2, 6
= 1, 49
10

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h ven :

x2 =

(2, 2 + 2, 2 + ... + 8)
= 4, 735
20

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h trung tm:

x=

3, 4 + 3,5 + ... + 9,3

= 6, 65
30

c lng im:

x .N = 1, 49.500 + 4, 735.1000 + 6, 65.1500 = 5,151

3000
N
( x x ).n = (0,8 1, 49) .1 + .... + (2, 6 1, 49) .1 = 0,3149
S =
10
n
x=

1i

2
1

1i

1i

S 2 2 = 3,1163
S32 = 3, 28

Xn =
=

Si 2 Ni 2 Ni ni
. 2 .

Ni
i =1 n 1 N
3

0,3149 5002 500 10 3,1163 10002 1000 200 3, 28 15002 1500 30

.
.
+
.
.
+
.
10 1 30002
500
20 1 30002
1000
30 1 30002 1500

= 9,52.104 + 0, 0178 + 0, 0277 = 0, 216

c lng ch tiu trung bnh ca 1h thnh ph:

Z / 2 = 1, 96
x Z / 2 . xn X x + Z / 2 . xn
5,1516 1,96.0, 216 X 5,1516 + 1,96.0, 216
4, 72824 X 5,57496

Vy ch tiu trung bnh ca 1 h thnh ph nm trong khong t

4,72884 n 5,57496 (triu ng)
c. c lng t l h ca thnh ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln
tin c 99%
Z / 2 2,5

T l h c chi tiu ln hn hoc bng 5 triu ng l:

W= 33/60 =0,55
Phng sai mu:
S 2 = w(1 w) = 0, 2475

Sai s bnh qun chn mu:

 Fn =

S2
0, 2475
=
= 0, 065
n 1
60 1

c lng t l h thnh ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln:

w Z / 2 . Fn P w + Z / 2 . Fn
0,55 2,5.0, 065 P 0,55 + 2,5.0, 065
0,382 P 0, 717

Vy t l h thnh ph c chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln nm trong khong t

0,382 n 0,717.
d.Xc nh kch thc mu cn iu tra nu cn c lng chi tiu trung bnh,
di khong tin cy 1,1 triu ng/h: 1- =99%
Dx = ( x + Z / 2 . xn 2 ) ( x Z / 2 . xn 2 ) = 2.Z / 2 .xn = 1,1

Kch tht mu cn iu tra:

Z 2 / 2 . 2 Z 2 / 2 . 2
n = 4.
=
D2x
2x

Vi:

2 =

( xi x ) 2 ni

(1, 49 5,15) 2 500 + (4, 735 5,15)2 1000 + (6, 65 5,15)2 1500
3000
= 3, 415
=

.N
=
N
2
i

0,3149 500 + 0,1163 1000 + 3, 28 1500

= 2, 73
3000

= + S 2 = 2, 73 + 3, 415 = 6,145
2

Nh vy: n = 4

Z2 / 2 2
2,582 6,145
=
4

= 135
Dx2
1,12

f.Xc nh kch thc mu cn iu tra c lng t l h c tng chi tiu t 5 triu

ng tr ln:
D=4,5% 1 = 95%
Vi tin cy 95%

 Z / 2 = 1,96
n=4
=4

Z2 / 2 p (1 p ) Z2 / 2 p(1 p )
=
D p2
2p

1,962 0,55(1 0,55)

= 1878
0, 0452

Vy kch thc mu cn iu tra y l 1787 h.

Bi 6.8:
Mt doanh nghip c 3 kho bt m. Kho 1 c 500 bao, kho 2 c 1000 bao, kho 3 c
2000 bao. Ngi ta chn ngu nhin hon ton khng lp trong kho 1 l 10 bao,
kho 2 l 20 bao, kho 3 l 40 bao. Kt qu nh sau:
Kho 1
Kho 2
Kho 3
Trng lng
S bao Trng lng
S bao Trng lng
S bao
(kg)
(kg)
(kg)
30
2
31
3
31
3
31
3
32
4
32
5
32
4
33
5
33
8
33
1
34
5
34
10
35
3
35
12
36
2
Tng cng
10
Tng cng
20
Tng cng
40
Bit rng trng lng cc bao bt m trong mi kho c phn phi chun.
Yu cu:
1. Vic ly mu trn ca doanh nghip thuc loi ly mu no?
2. Hy c lng trng lng bnh qun 1 bao bt m trong tng kho vi tin
cy 95%
3. Hy c lng trng lng bnh qun 1 bao bt m ca DN ni trn vi
tin cy 95%
4. Hy c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32kg tr xung trong
kho 3 vi tin cy 95%
5. Hy c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32kg tr xung ca DN
ni trn vi tin cy 95%
6. Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra thm nu cn c lng trng lng
trung bnh mt bao bt m ca DN vi di khong tin cy l 0,6kg v
tin cy 95%

7. Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra nu cn c lng t l s bao bt m c

trng lng t 32kg tr xung ca DN vi di khong tin cy l 5% v
tin cy l 99%.
Gii:
a.Vic ly mu trn ca doanh nghip thuc loi ly mu phn loi.
b. c lng trng lng bnh qun mt bao bt m trong tng kho vi tin cy
95%:
* Kho 1:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x1 =

x f
f

i i

30 2 + 31 3 + 32 4 + 33 1
= 31, 4 (kg)
10

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )

(x x )
f

S 2 =

1i

fi

Vi:
=

(30 31, 4) 2 + ... + (33 31, 4)2 1

= 0,84
10
2

Ta c: X =
n1

S 2 N1 n
0,84 500 10

= 0, 287
n
N1
10
500

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x1 Z / 2 . X n1 X1 x1 + Z / 2 . X n1
31, 4 1,96 0, 287 X 1 31, 4 + 1,96 0, 287
30,83 X 1 31,96

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho mt nm trong khong

30,83 n 31,96 kg.
*Kho 2:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x1 =

x f
f

i i
i

31 3 + 32 4 + ... + 35 3
= 33, 05 (kg)
20

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )

 (x x )
f

S 2 =

Vi:

1i

fi

(31 33, 05) 3 + ... + (35 33, 05)2 3

=
= 1, 6475
20
2

Ta c: X =
n2

S 2 N 2 n
1, 6475 1000 20

= 0, 284
n
N2
20
1000

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x2 Z / 2 . X n 2 X 2 x2 + Z / 2 . X n 2
33, 05 1,96 0, 284 X 2 33, 05 + 1,96 0, 284
32.49 X 2 33, 6

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho 2 nm trong khong

32,49 n 33,6 kg.
*Kho 3:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x3 =

x f
f

i i

31 3 + 32 5 + ... + 36 2
= 33, 73 (kg)
40

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )
S 2 =

(x x )
f
2i

fi

Vi:
=

(31 33, 73) 2 3 + ... + (36 33, 73)2 2

= 1,8
40

Ta c: X n 3 =

S 2 N 3 n
1,8 2000 40

= 0, 21
n
N3
40
2000

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x3 Z / 2 . X n 3 X 3 x3 + Z / 2 . X n 3
33, 73 1,96 0, 21 X 3 33, 73 + 1,96 0, 21
33,31 X 3 34,137

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho3 nm trong khong

33,31 n 34,137 kg.
c.c lng trng lng bnh qun mt bao bt m ca doanh nghip:

x1 N1 + x2 N 2 + x3 N3
N
31, 4 500 + 33, 05 1000 + 33, 73 2000
=
= 33, 2
3500
x=

Xn =
=

Si 2 Ni2 Ni ni
2

N
Ni
i =1 ni 1
3

0,84 5002 500 10

1,8 20002 2000 40

+
...
+

10 1 35002
500
40 1 35002
2000

= 1,866.103 + 6,93.103 + 0, 01477 = 0,1535

Khong c lng:
x Z / 2 . X n X x + Z / 2 . X n
33, 2 1, 96 0,1535 X 33, 2 + 1,96 0,1535
32, 9 X 33,5

Vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao bt m ca doanh nghip nm trong

khong gia 32,9 v 33,5 kg.
d.c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung kho 3:
T l bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung:
w3 =

8
= 0, 2
40

Sai s bnh qun chn mu:

Fn =
=

w(1 w) N n

n 1
N

0, 2(1 0, 2) 2000 40

= 0, 063
40 1
2000

Khong c lng:
w3 Z / 2 Fn p w3 + Z / 2 Fn
0, 2 1,96.0, 063 p 0, 2 + 1,96.0, 063
0, 076 p 0,323

Vy t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg trong kho 3 nm trong khong t

0,075 n 0,325.
e.c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh
nghip:
T l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca tng kho:
Kho 1: w1 =

9
= 0,9
10

7
= 0,35
20
8
Kho 3: w3 = = 0, 2
40

Kho 2: w2 =

Ca c 3 kho:
w =

9+8+7
= 0,34
10 + 20 + 40

Ta c:
wi (1 wi ) Ni 2 Ni ni
2

ni 1
N
Ni
i =1
3

Fn
=

0,9(1 0,9) 5002 500 10

0, 2(1 0, 2) 20002 2000 40

+
...
+

10 1
35002
500
40 1
35002
2000

= 2 104 + 9,57 104 + 1,31103 = 0, 05

Khong c lng:
w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 34 1, 96 0, 05 p 0,34 + 1,96 0, 05
0, 242 p 0, 438

Nh vy, t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh nghip

nm trong khong 0,242 n 0,438.
f.Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra c lng trng lng trung bnh mt
bao bt m ca doanh nghip vi di khoang tin cy l 0,6 kg v tin cy
99%:
Dx = 0, 6

p dng cng thc :

n=

4 Z2 / 2 2 Z2 / 2 2
=
Dx2
x2

Ta c: 2 = 2 + S 2
Vi:

N
=
N
2
i

= 1, 62

0,84 500 + 1, 6475 1000 + 1,8 2000

3500

(x x )
=
N
i

Ni

(31, 4 33, 2) 2 500 + ... + (33, 725 33, 2)2 2000

=
3500
= 0, 6267
2 = 1, 62 + 0, 6267 = 2, 2467

S bao bt m cn iu tra l:
n = 4

2, 582 2, 2467
= 166 (bao).
0, 62

g. Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra nu c lng t l s bao bt m c trng

lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh nghip vi Dx = 0, 05
Z / 2 = 2,58

p dng cng thc:

n = 4

Z2 / 2 p (1 p) Z2 / 2 p (1 p)
=
D p2
p2

2,582 0,34(1 0,34)

= 4
= 1577
0, 052

Vy s bao bt m cn iu tra l 1577 (bao).

Chng 7: KIM NH GI THUYT

Bi 7.1
mt doanh nghip cam kt vi khch hng chiu di sn phm trung bnh l
5mm. kim tra cam kt ny , khch hng chn ngu nhin 20 sn phm o,
kt qu nh sau:
Chiu di sn
phm(mm)
4,9
5,0
5,1
5,2
5,3
Tng

S sn phm
2
4
5
6
3
20

Bit rng chiu di sn phm c phn phi chun

Hy kim nh cam kt trn vi
= 0, 01

Gii:
Gi thuyt:

H 0 : = 0 ( Vi 0 = 5mm )
H 1 = 0

x n = 4.9 2 + 5 4 + ... + 5.3 3 = 5.12

20
n
( x x) = (4.9 5.12) 2 + (5 5.12)
=
20
n

x=

i i
i

Ta c:
S

4 + ...(5.3 5.12)2 3

= 0.0146

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

x 0
2

S
n 1

5.12 5
= 4.329
0.0146
19

Tra bng: Tn 1, 2 = T19,0.005 = 2.861

Ta thy: t > Tn 1, 2 Bc b H 0 chp nhn H1
Nh vy doanh nghip khng cam kt nh ha, chiu di trung bnh ca sn
phm khng ng bng 5mm vi = 0.01
Bi 7.2
Tiu chun t ra cho cht lng sn phm ca mt nh my l tui th trung bnh
ca mt sn phm l t 5000 gi s dng tr ln. kim tra, ngi ta chn ngu
nhin hon ton 20 sn phm. Kt qu thu c nh sau:
Tui th(gi)
S sn phm
4800
2
4850
3
4900
8
5050
5
5100
2
Hy kim nh tiu chun cht lng ni trn vi mc ngha
= 0, 01

Bit rng tui th sn phm tun theo lut phn phi chun
Gii:

Gi thuyt: H 0 : 0 (vi 0 = 5000 gi)

H 1 = < 0

n x = 4800 2 + 4850 3 + ... + 5100 2 = 4940

20
n
( x x) n = 9400
S =
n
x=

Ta c:

i i
i

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

x 0
2

S
n 1

4940 5000
= 2.6975
9400
19

Tra bng: Tn 1, = T19,0.01 = 2.539

Ta thy: t < Tn 1, Bc b H 0 chp nhn H1
Nh vy vi mc ngha = 0.01 tui th trung bnh ca sn phm nh hn 5000
gi, sn phm khng t ch tiu v cht lng.
Bi 7.3
Mt gim c cho rng nu chi ph thm cho bao b 1000d/sp th c th bn hng
cao hn gi c t 3000d/sp tr ln. kim tra nhn nh ny, v gim c th
nghim vi 30 khch hng c chn ngu nhin. Gi m cc khch hng chp
nhn mua vi bao b c (BBC) v bao b mi (BBM) nh sau( nghn ng/sp):
Khch Gi
Gi
Khch
hng
mua
mua
hng
BBC
BBM
1
50
55
11
2
48
50
12
3
52
58
13
4
49
51
14
5
51
55
15
6
53
56
16
7
47
50
17
8
52
56
18
9
50
52
19
10
48
52
20
Hy kim nh nhn nh trn vi

Gi
mua
BBC
50
49
48
51
49
49
50
51
50
53

Gi
mua
BBM
54
58
51
49
57
54
56
51
50
53

Khch Gi
hng
mua
BBC
21
46
22
51
23
54
24
48
25
49
26
52
27
45
28
49
29
52
30
51

Gi
mua
BBM
48
53
54
49
56
58
48
52
54
55

 = 0, 01 , bit rng phn phi gi mua ca khch hng c phn phi xp x chun

Gii:
Gi thuyt: H 0 : y X = D0 (Vi D0 = 3 nghn ng/sp)
H1 : y X < D0

Ta c:
K 1
H
xi
5
0
yi 5
5
ki
5
K
H

4
8
5
0
2

5
2
5
8
6

4
9
5
1
2

5
1
5
5
4

5
3
5
6
3

4
7
5
0
3

5
2
5
6
4

5
0
5
2
2

2
1
4
6
4
8
2

xi
yi
ki

k=

2
2
5
1
5
3
2

2
3
5
4
5
4
0

k = 3.37

2
4
4
8
4
9
1

1
0
4
8
5
2
4
2
5
4
9
5
6
7

1
1
5
0
5
4
4

1
2
4
9
5
8
9
2
6
5
2
5
8
6

1
3
4
8
5
1
3

1
4
5
1
4
9
-2

1
5
4
9
5
7
8

2
7
4
5
4
8
3

1
6
4
9
5
4
5

1
7
5
0
5
6
6

1
8
5
1
5
1
0

2
8
4
9
5
2
3

2
9
5
2
5
4
2

3
0
5
1
5
5
4

1
9
5
3
5
0
-3

2
0
4
7
5
3
6

(ki = yi xi )

xi : Gi mua BBC
yi : Gi mua BBM
2

S k =

(k

k )2

= 7.03

Tiu chun kim nh:

Z=

k D0
2

S k
n 1

3.37 3
= 0.75
7.03
29

Tra bng ta thy: Z = Z 0.01 = 2.327 . Ta thy: Z < Z Chp nhn H 0 .

Nh vy, vi = 0.01 th chi ph thm cho bao b 1000d/sp th c th bn hng gi
cao hn gi c 3000d/sp.
Bi 7.4

Ngi ta cho rng phng php sn xut X c chi ph sn xut cao hn phng
php sn xut Y t 50d/sp tr ln. kim tra ngi ta chn ngu nhin 16 cng
nhn th nghim 2 phng php sn xut ny. Kt qu nh sau:
Cn Chi ph(ppX)
Chi ph (ppY) Cn Chi ph(ppX)
Chi ph (ppY)
g
lng(1000d/s lng(1000d/s g
lng(1000d/s lng(1000d/sp
nhn p
p
nhn p
1
5,1
5,0
9
5,8
5,5
2
6,0
5,8
10
6,1
5,9
3
5,8
5,5
11
6,3
6,1
4
5,4
5,3
12
5,2
5,4
5
5,8
5,9
13
5,6
5,2
6
5,0
5,1
14
5,9
5,7
7
5,2
5,0
15
6,2
6,0
8
5,5
5,3
16
6,0
5,7
Hy kim nh nhn nh trn vi
= 0, 01 . Bit rng phn phi chi ph lng tun theo quy lut phn phi chun.
Gii:

H 0 = X y D0 ( D0 = 0.05 nghn ng/sp)

Ga thuyt:

H1 : X y < D0

Ta c bng sau:
CN 1
2
3
xi
5. 6. 5.
1
0
8
yi
5. 5. 5.
0
8
5
ki
0. 0. 0.
1
2
3

4
5.
4
5.
3
0.
1

5
5.
8
5.
9
0.
1

6
5.
0
5.
1
0.
1

( ki = xi yi )

7
5.
2
5.
0
0.
2

8
5.
5
5.
3
0.
2

9
5.
8
5.
5
0.
3

10
6.
1
5.
9
0.
2

11
6.
3
6.
1
0.
2

12
5.
2
5.
4
0.
2

13
5.
6
5.
2
0.
4

14
5.
9
5.
7
0.
2

15
6.
2
6.
0
0.
2

xi : Chi ph lng theo phng php X

yi : Chi ph lng theo phng php Y

k=
2

k = 0.15625

S k =

(k

k )2

= 0.025

16
6.0
5.7
0.3

Tiu chun kim nh:

Tra bng

t=

k k0

Tn 1, = T15,0.01 = 2.262
t > Tn 1,

S k
n 1

0.15625 0.05
= 2.603
0.025
15

Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi = 0.01 phng php sn xut X c chi ph tin lng cao hn

phng php sn xut Y t 50 nghn ng/sp tr ln.
Bi 7.5
V qun c cho rng t l thnh phm ca my A l ln hn ca my B t 1%
tr ln. kim tra ngi ta cho sn xut th 1000 sn phm trn my A v 1500
sn phm trn my B. Kt qu cho rng c hai my u cho 3 sn phm hng, hy
kim nh tt c nhn nh trn vi alpha=0,01

Gii: w A =

3
3
= 3.103 ; w B =
= 2.103
1000
1500

w A : t l sai hng ca my A
w B : t l sai hng ca my B

Ga thuyt:
H 0 : PB PA 0.01
H1 : PB PA < 0.01
w A nA + w B nB 3 x103 1000 + 2 103 1500
w=
=
= 2.103
nA + nB
1000 + 1500

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

w B -w A
=
w(1 w) w(1 w)
+
nA
nB

0.002 0.003
= 0.548
0.002(1 0.002) 0.002(1 0.002)
+
1000
1500

Tra bng Z = Z 0.01 = 2.326 . Ta thy Z > Z Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi mc ngha = 0.01 , t l thnh phm ca my A ln hn my B t
1% tr ln.
Bi 7.6

Ngi ta cho rng chi ph in nng cho mt sn phm ca my X ln hn my

Y t 100d/sp tr ln. kim tra nhn nh ny, ngi ta sn xut th 25 sn
phm trn mi my. Kt qu v chi ph in nng nh sau:
My X
My Y
Chi ph
S SP
Chi ph in(1000d/sp) S SP
in(1000d/sp)
4,8
1
4,6
2
4,9
3
4,7
3
5,0
5
4,8
4
5,1
9
4,9
10
5,2
4
5,0
4
5,3
3
5,1
2
Hy kim nh trn vi mc ngha alnpha=0,05. Bit rng chi ph in nng ca 2
my tun theo phn phi chun v c phng sai nh nhau
Gi: Ga thuyt: H 0 = X y = D0 (Vi D0 = 0.1 nghn ng)
H1 : X y < D0

x n = 5.084
n
y n = 4.868
y=
n
( x x) n
S =
n
( y y) n
S =
n
i

x=

xi

xi

Ta c:

yi

yi

xi

= 0.0165

xi

yi

= 0.0174

yi

S2 =

S x2 nx + S y2 ny
nx + n y 2

= 0.0177

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

( x y ) D0
S2 S2
+
nx n y

(5.084 4.868) 0.1

= 3.038
0.0177 0.0177
+
25
25

Tra bng: Tn + n 2; = T48;0.05 = 1.677 . Ta thy: t > Tn + n 2; Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy i vi = 0.05 , chi ph in nng cho mt sn phm ca my X ln hn
my Y t 100d/sp tr ln.
x

Bi 7.7
Mt nh cung cp gii thiu 2 kiu thit b sn xut cng mt loi sn phm cho
khch hng. Nh cung cp cho rng, mc d kiu my 1 t hn kiu my 2 tuy
nhin kiu my 1 cho php tit kim bnh qun so vi my 2 trn 1 sn phm t
0,1kg nguyn liu tr ln. kim tra ngi mua cho sn xut th 20 sn phm
trn my 1 v 30 sn phm trn my 2. mc hao ph nguyn liu cho mt sn phm
nh sau:
My 1
Mc hao ph
NL(kg)
12,0
12,1
12,2
12,3
12,4
12,5

S sn phm
2
3
5
4
3
3

my 2
Mc hao ph
NL(kg)
12,1
12,2
12,3
12,4
12,5

S sn phm
5
5
8
7
5

Hy kim nh nhn ca nh cung cp vi alnpha=0,05. bit rng lng tiu hao

trn mi my c phn phi chun.
H 0 : 1 2 = D0

( Vi D0 = 0.1kg )
H1 : 1 2 > D0 Kim nh v mc hao ph nguyn vt

Gii: Ga thuyt:
liu
Ta c:

x n = 12.26 Mc hao ph bnh qun ca my 1

n
x n = 12.307 Mc hao ph bnh qun ca my 2
x =
n
( x x ) xn = 0.0234
S =
n
( x x ) n = 0.0173
S =
n

x1 =

1i

1i

1i

2i

2i

2i

1i

1i

1i

2
2

2i

2i

2i

S2 =

S12 n1 + S22 n2
= 0.0206
n1 + n2 2

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

( x1 x2 ) D0
S2 S2
+
n1 n2

(12.26 12.307) 0.1

= 3.548
0.0206 0.0206
+
20
30

Tra bng:
Tn1 + n2 2; = T48;0.05 = 1.677 . Ta thy t < Tn1 + n2 2; Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy = 0.05 , my 1 c mc hao ph nguyn liu nh hn my 2 t nht l

0.1kg nguyn liu hay my 1 tit kim nguyn liu hn my hn so vi my 2 t
0.1kg nguyn liu tr ln.
Bi 7.8
C im nh gi v s a thch ca 12 khch hng c chn ngu nhin i vi
2 loi sn phm A v B trn thang im 10 nh sau:
Khch hng
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

im sn phm A
8
9
7
6
10
6
8
7
9
9
10
8

im sn phm B
9
8
7
4
9
5
7
5
7
9
8
6

Hy kim nh gi thuyt cho rng sn phm A c a thch bng hoc hn sn

phm B vi alnpha=0,05
Gii: Dng phng php kim nh du:
Gi thuyt: H 0 : p + 0.5 ( p + l sn xut sn phm A c a thch hn sn
phm B)
H1 : p + < 0.5

Khch hng
1
2
3

im sp A
8
9
7

im sp B
9
8
7

Du(A-B)
+
0

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

6
10
6
8
7
9
9
10
8

4
9
5
7
5
7
9
8
6

+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+

Tng s du n = 10 ; s du cng c = 9
Tra bng B(10;5)
p0 = p (k = 0) + p (k = 1) + p (k = 2) + ... + p( k = 9)
= 0.001 + 0, 0098 + 0.0439 + 0.1172 + 0.2051 + 0.2461 + 0.2051 + 0.1172 + 0.0439 + 0.0098
= 0.9991
p0 = 0.9991 > = 0.005
Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi = 0.05 sn phm A c a thch hn hoc bng sn phm B

Bi 7.9
so snh s hi lng ca cng nhn i vi cch tr lng mi so vi cch tr
lng c, ngi ta chn ngu nhin 20 cng nhn v yu cu h cho im trn
thang im 100 i vi cch tr lng mi v chn 20 cng nhn ngu nhin khc
ri yu cu h cho im trn thang im 100 i vi cch tr lng c, kt qu thu
c nh sau:
im cho cch tr lng
C
Mi
53
80
63
75
45
50
37
30
74
65
37
85
55
66
65
80
32
75
15
15

30
25
67
46
90
80
45
70
75
66
56
85
80
90
59
70
70
56
25
30
Hy kim nh nhn nh cho rng phng php tr lng c t c hi lng hn
phng php tr lng mi vi alnpha=0,05
Gii:
Ta c:
KH

im 5 6 4 3 7 3
cch 3 3 5 7 4 7
tr
lng
c
im 8 7 5 3 6 8
cch 0 5 0 0 5 5
tr
lng
mi
Du - - - + + Gi thuyt: H 0 : p + 0.05
hn cch tr lng mi)

1
1
3
0

1
2
6
7

1
3
9
0

1
4
4
5

1
5
7
5

1
6
5
6

1
7
8
0

1
8
5
9

1
9
7
0

20

3
2

1
0
1
5

5
5

6
5

6
6

8
0

7
5

1
5

2
5

4
6

8
0

7
0

6
6

8
5

9
0

7
0

5
6

30

- - - 0 + + + - + - - - +
( Vi p + l sc xut cch tr lng c c hi lng

H1 : p + > 0.5

Tng s du n= 19; tng s du cng c = 7

Sc xut tch ly cc kh nng k ly t 7 n 19 du cng l:

25

pn = p (k = 7) + p (k = 8) + ... + p (k = 19)
= 1 [p (k = 0) + p (k = 1) + ... + p (k = 8)]
= 1 [0 + 0 + 0.0003 + 0.0018 + 0.0074 + 0.0222 + 0.0518 + 0.0961 + 0.1442]
= 0.6765

Ta thy pn > = 0.05 chp nhn H 0

Nh vy = 0.05 cch tr lng c t c hi lng so vi cch tr lng mi.
Bi 7.10
C ti liu v 140 doanh nghip c chn ngu nhin mt thnh ph c phn
t kt hp theo quy m v t sut li nhun trn vn nh sau:
Quy m
T sut li nhun trn vn (%)
5-10
10-15
15-20
Cng
Nh
20
60
6
86
Va
5
30
19
54
Cng
25
90
25
140
Hy kim nh tnh c lp gia quy m v t sut li nhun trn vn vi
alnpha=0,05
Gii: Phng php kim nh khi bnh phng vi = 0.05
Cp gi thuyt:
H 0 : Quy m v t sut li nhun l c lp
H1 : Quy m v t sut li nhun c quan h ph thuc
Bng quy m l t sut li nhun ca 140 doanh nghip:
Quy m
T sut li nhun trn vn(%)
5->10
10->15
15->20
Cng
Va
20
60
6
86
(15,35)
(55,29)
(15,36)
Nh
5
30
19
54
(9,64)
(34,71)
(9,64)
Cng
25
90
25
140
(Vi n0ij =

nix xniy
n

l s trong ngoc)

Ta c

k =
k =1 j =1

Tra bng

(nij n0ij ) 2
n0ij

Vi k=2;m=3

(20 15.36) 2 (60 55.29)2

(19 9.64)2
+
+ ... +
= 19.46
15.36
55.29
9.64

2
X (2k 1)( m 1); = X 2;0.05
= 5.991

k > X (2k 1)( m 1);

bc b H 0 chp nhn H1

Nh vy vi = 0.05 quy m v t sut li nhun c quan h ph thuc.