1.

Forecasting techniques
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011

Year
2008

2009

2010

2011

Q1

Q2
278
302
318
402

Quanter
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
a=
b=
Y= a + bx

Q3
288
308
334
424

Year No.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
237.26470
6
10.364705
9

Q4
136
198
212
282

Y
278
288
136
340
302
308
198
360
318
334
212
384
402
424
282
474

340
360
384
474

Trend
237
248
258
268
279
289
299
310
320
331
341
351
362
372
382
393

Seasonal Variation
41
117%
40
116%
-122
53%
72
127%
23
108%
19
107%
-101
66%
50
116%
-2
99%
3
101%
-129
62%
33
109%
40
111%
52
114%
-100
74%
81
121%

Additive Model
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total

Q1
41
23
-2
40
25.5

Q2
40
19
3
52
28.5

Q3
-122
-101
-129
-100
-113

Q4

R
72
50
33
81
59

Year
2012

Quanter
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Year No
16
17
18
19

Trend
403
413
424
434
1675

Season
25.5
28.5
-113
59

Q2
116%
107%
101%
114%
109%

Q3
53%
66%
62%
74%
64%

Q4
127%
116%
109%
121%
118%

Year No
16
17
18
19

Trend
403
413
424
434
1675

Season
109%
109%
64%
118%

Total

Forecast
429
442
311
493
1675

Multiplicative Model
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total

Year
2012
Total

Q1
117%
108%
99%
111%
109%

Quanter
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

400%

Forecast
439
453
271
512
1675

3. Project Plan

16
5

24

12
3

12
24
6

0
1

A(8)

8
2

F(2)

26
8

24

H(4)

26

30
9

30

8
20
4

22

G(4)

24
7

A B C F H I K = 40
The total time for completing the whole event is 40 weeks.

26

J (2)

40
10

40

11

40
+K
40
+K

4. Investment Appraisal Techniques

Rate
Year No
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
NPV
IRR

12%
Machine A ($)
Machine B ($)
-300
-304
80
160
100
120
120
100
120
80
160
60
$
$
103.61
90.59
24%
26%

The analyzed table above shows that both Machine A and Machine B fulfill the criterion which
gets profit for the company. However, Machine B is a positive project because it has IRR higher.
Besides, the risk at Machine B is less than Machine A because the turnover of Machine Bs first
years is high so that time for capital return is faster.