SECRET BETTING CLUB MAGAZINE ISSUE 81 MARCH 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS This Month With Peter Ling .............................................................................................................. 2 Betting Strategies .............................................................................................................................. 3 Review: GT Tips ............................................................................................................................... 4 SBC Interview: A Bookie Insider Speaks .......................................................................................... 11 Review: Strikeline Racing ................................................................................................................ 17 How I Make Money Betting: Peter Green ....................................................................................... 22 Bet Butler: Free 25 Bet .................................................................................................................. 27 The Racing Rundown Scott Armstrong......................................................................................... 28 Contribute & Earn ........................................................................................................................... 31 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Disclaimer & Copyright Notice ........................................................................................................ 32

USEFUL LINKS

You can find lots of the latest SBC content, news, downloads, forum and information via the SBC website. Some key links for you: SBC Website: Members Section Latest SBC News Magazine Downloads Magazine Content Index Betting & Strategy Guides SBC Discount Club Tipster Ratings/Hall of Fame New User Guide Members Forum Contribute & Earn

Page | 1

THIS MONTH WITH PETER LING THE LATEST AT THE SECRET BETTING CLUB

Hello and welcome to the latest Secret Betting Club magazine - Issue number 81. One of the toughest questions we get asked here at SBC is often that of 'Can you tell me what services should I follow to make money betting?'. That might sound strange, coming as it does from a service that reports back on tipsters as its central function, yet the reason we find it tricky to answer is because so much is dependent on each individual's preferences. It's certainly not a case of one size fits all. That is why choosing the right tipsters (or systems) takes a little bit of research by each individual to get it just right for you. Some of the key requirements that always differ are the likes of budget, time, betting experience and even the ability to get your bets on in the first place. Despite this need for an individual betting setup, it is always helpful to hear of others who have traversed the betting path successfully, which is why this month I have introduced a new series entitled 'How I Make Money Betting'. Through this I will be speaking with a variety of punters, on just how they make it all pay. Whether you wish to use these interviews as an exact template on what you should do or simply to take inspiration from the fact that others have been able to make a profit betting, I do hope you find it of use. To get the ball rolling, I interviewed a long-standing SBC member, Peter Green, who has gone from betting newcomer to fairly substantial punter during his time with us. Peter was good enough to reveal plenty about his betting setup, portfolio and even how he gets his bets on in his revealing interview. My thanks to him for sharing some of his secrets. I also had the pleasure this month in putting your questions to a former bookmaker trader, who was happy to reveal all on just how the 'enemy' works. Although wishing to remain anonymous, he detailed plenty on a range of topics from bookmaker restrictions to how odds are actually compiled. If you enjoy this interview do let me know as the potential is there to speak more with him on a range of other bookmaker related topics in-depth. I hope you enjoy this month's SBC magazine - do let me know your feedback either via email or the SBC forum. Heres to a profitable months betting for us all. Peter Ling SBC Editor Email me: info@secretbettingclub.com Tweet me: @sbcinfo SBC Recommends: PCB TIPS COMBO DEAL Secure Your Exclusive Discount On Top Racing & Golf Tips From Pro Gambler 'PCB'
Combined, Pro Gambler Paul Chandler-Burns made a profit of over 280 pts at an ROI of 36.21% from his Golf & Racing tips in 2012 You can now save up to 200 on a combined membership to both the 4 Pronged Attack Racing and Golf Betting Expert tips in this extra special deal. Find out more and sign-up at www.secretbettingclub.com/combo/

Page | 2

BETTING STRATEGIES DON T MISS THE EXCELLENT RESOUR CES AVAILBLE TO SBC MEMBERS.

Make sure you keep up to date with all the best resources, systems, free tips and strategies that your SBC membership brings you. Below are just a few current highlights: Ultimate Betting Package: Free For SBC Members. The Pro Gambler Blueprint. A collection of some of the best advice, guides and help to get your betting on the right footing. The Secret Betting System Guide. A collection of all the best free systems and strategies available to you as an SBC member including: o o o o o Profit From Reality TV Betting. Football Antepost Betting Strategy. When Odds Are Odd: How to Profit from Bookie Loopholes. 16 Runner Handicaps: How to Profit. How to Profit From Horses To Follow Lists.

Most Popular Systems 3 of our most popular systems can also be found in updated individual downloads below: o The Fink Tank Value System o On Course For Golf Betting Profits o The 4 Pronged Attack System

MAGAZINE CONTENT INDEX

You can quickly find details of all past SBC magazines including reviews, articles and interviews by visiting the Magazine Content Index Please note - SBC magazine content is no longer added to the website - the only way to read our latest output is by downloading the PDF files.
SBC PREMIUM SERVICES:

The SBC Premium Area: www.secretbettingclub.com/premium Premium Services are additional tipster products and betting guides that we have personally developed for Secret Betting Club members keen to enhance their betting from a proven source. Available as an upgrade to your main SBC membership, you can choose between a wide range of expert Premium Tipsters and Premium Guides currently on offer. View those currently available for purchase here or read more on some of those currently available... Pro Betting Guide - 5 part limited edition package for advanced gamblers. Horse Racing Maximiser - Expert guide to making greater racing profits Avoiding Restrictions & Closures - Expert guide at overcoming negative bookie practices Golf Betting Expert - PCB's excellent golf betting tipster service Chasemaster - Racing specialists with record of profits dating back to 2008. Football Collective - Expert Football tips for less than 5 a week

Page | 3

REVIEW: GT TIPS REVIEWER: NICK WARD PROMISING SPORTS BETTING SERVICE RUN BY TEAM OF INDUSTRY CONTACTS Service Name: GT Tips Contact: George Taylor Website: http://www.gttips.co.uk/ Email: george@gttips.co.uk Sports Covered: Horse racing, rugby, football, tennis, golf and smaller volume of bets on other sports Bet Frequency: Approx 120 a month for racing, 20-25 for rugby (others 100) Pricing: 25 a month, 50 a quarter, 150 one year Bet Delivery: Email

Service In Brief: A sports betting service provided by a team of bookmaking industry contacts, headed up by George Taylor. A wide range of sports are covered, with rugby and racing forming the two major elements. Service in Detail: A brief trawl through GT Tips website can be a bit daunting at first, simply down to the sheer breadth of sports and volume of selections offered up by this ambitious, evolving service. Initially set up by George Taylor, who works as a rugby trader/odds compiler within the bookmaking industry, GT Tips started life as a free service on 4 May 2011. After a highly successful first year, George and his team introduced a subscription-based Members Area with members paying for their Premium Tips, whilst also retaining the Free Betting Tips area. Georges regular team is currently made up of seven contacts with a variety of industry experience as market makers, odds compilers and traders. They each focus on just one or two specialised areas, giving a tremendous breadth of coverage across the team as a whole: Horse Racing three main tipsters, providing almost half the total volume of bets Rugby League and Union are covered. Described on GT Tips website as a mainstay Football Tennis Golf Other Sports including NFL and Gaelic football

For our first look at this service, we focus on horse racing and rugby, the two sports which are featured most prominently in the members Premium Tips service, and have achieved consistently good returns through the two years since GT Tips first began. Members receive daily horse racing selections by email as well as more sporadic emails covering other sports as and when tips are identified. The horse racing email is short, simply listing the selections and advised staking, price and bookmakers (example provided below). Typically, four selections are included in the daily email; a Nap and NB exclusive to Premium Tips members, plus two free tips available to all. Additional selections may be made during busier periods in the racing calendar. Most bets are advised at level stakes (1 point), with occasional stronger bets advised at higher stakes (generally 2 points). The stronger bets have performed very well to date, but the sample size is still too small to make any definitive judgement.

Page | 4

All major areas of Rugby League and Rugby Union across the globe are covered, with around five selections typically advised each week. George himself puts up all the League (Australian NRL, English Super League) and northern hemisphere Union tips (including French Top 14 and Celtic Pro 12), whilst another member of the team covers southern hemisphere Rugby Union. Internationals are also covered when the team spot some value. Aware that not all SBC readers may be familiar with rugby as a betting medium, we asked George to tell us a bit more about the teams methodology, how they maintain an edge in this area, and which markets they focus on: We tip on three main markets; to win match, to cover handicaps (i.e., to win by more than 7, or to not lose by more than 7) and total points. Theres a brief guide to rugby handicaps on our site to help those unfamiliar with rugby betting. http://gttips.co.uk/betting-guides/asian-handicaps/ My day job is to price rugby matches for the above leagues. This means I follow these leagues very closely, and for every match come up with my own opinion about what the correct price (or handicap line) should be. The company I work for greatly encourages this approach, which is to decide what you think is the correct price before checking the market. This is very rare among bookmakers. Take the French Top 14 for example. Bet365 will invariably be first to release prices for the next round of matches, generally on a Wednesday or Thursday. Everyone follows them, without exception. Very few firms can afford to have a dedicated French rugby trader because they take so little money on the matches Other leagues where team news is known, the value edge just comes down to professional opinion. Its my job to know every player that plays the game, and know how good they are. Its my job to keep all the stats for points distributions in all the various conditions, handicap cover %s in all situations, short turn-arounds, at home, covering big lines, etc. This means its very easy for me to spot when a rival bookmaker has made a mistake. Id say our greatest edge in rugby tipping is that many other bookmakers are lazy. Recently, for example, weve been tipping teams like Featherstone & Mont-de-Marsan to cover half time handicaps, because theyve been scoring over 65% of their points in the first half. This is research other layers cant be arsed to do. The post below, covering successful Australian Rugby League tips from last weekend, highlights how the teams significant experience can be put to good use:

Page | 5

Service Proofing: We have been proofing GT Tips since September 2012. Weve also recently worked closely with George to verify the full set of historical results going back to the start of Year 1, beginning May 2011. We have broken down the remainder of the article into two sections, covering results, odds availability and recommended betting banks separately for the two main sports, racing and rugby. Horse Racing Results: The table and graph below provide a summary of performance of all racing selections since the service started in May 2011. Year 1 covers the services first 12 months as a free resource, whilst Year 2 covers both Premium Tips (Nap and NB), plus the free tips also included in members emails. Year 2 is still ongoing, with around six weeks still to run.
Bets 1254 1434 2688 801 644 Stakes 1374.2 1543.5 2917.7 867.0 709.0 Strike Rate 25.2% 19.1% 21.9% 19.9% 20.2% Profit 278.4 156.8 435.2 52.1 36.1 ROI 20.3% 10.2% 14.9% 6.0% 5.1% ROC ** 185.6% 104.5% 290.1%

Year 1 Year 2 Total Proofed Bets ** Nap/NB Only

**Note: Covers period from first tip on 4 May 2011 (start of Year 1) to 18 March 2013 (Week 43, Year 2). SBC proofing covers six month period from 18 Sep 2012 onwards. Return on Capital (ROC) based on 150 point bank.

Page | 6

Whilst Year 2 performance has failed to match the heady heights of Year 1, where a highly impressive ROI of 20% was achieved, overall figures remain solid despite a recent period of treading water. Year 2 ROI stands at around 10%, sufficient to see a doubling of a 150 point betting bank (ROC = 104.5%) so far this year. Its noticeable that the Premium Tips (Nap/NB) bets have actually performed less well than the free tips so far. We asked George for his thoughts on this: Id also seen this trend I like to NAP/NB horses where a price is generally available so that followers can get on in their desired size. This might be why the non-nb tips perform better % wise, as theres more rogue / standout prices that were picking off. Similar to the question above, the NAP idea also lends itself to having a greater deal of confidence in the selection, so will invariably be a shorter price. So while the ROI for the bigger prices is currently performing better, I believe that the lower ROI from the NAP & NB tips is much more reliable. Time will tell, but it may well be that, as George suggests, the performance of Nap/NB vs other selections evens out over time. The service has also recently brought a new flat tipster on board who, according to George, comes with an excellent reputation, particularly with respect to betting in the highly liquid markets of UAE racing. It will be interesting to see how this aspect of the service evolves in the coming months. Additional Analysis Short-priced Selections: As usual, we gave the service the once-over to try to better understand strengths and weaknesses, and any trends lurking behind the headline figures. Perhaps the most striking finding amongst this related to performance at higher vs lower odds, as highlighted in the table below. Note that Nap/NB and other (free) bets all broadly follow this pattern:
Odds Less than 7/2 7/2+ Bets 1000 1688 Stakes 1037.5 1880.3 Profit 0.8 434.4 ROI 0.1% 23.1%

At this stage, were not particularly suggesting potential subscribers should drop the lower odds selections from their betting - theyre not losing money and will certainly make for a smoother ride with a more regular stream of winners but just be aware of this trend as the service further matures into Year 3 and beyond.

Page | 7

Betting Bank: Although the biggest drawdown the racing part of the service has seen to date is 75 points, wed urge some caution with respect to betting banks size. Bearing this in mind, and having simulated longer sequences of results at typical strike rates around 20%, we would recommend using a 150 point bank for the racing selections. Odds Availability: One of our testers, Michael, has done some sterling work in testing odds movement for a decent volume of advised selections over the last few months. Michael consistently managed to achieve the advised odds (normally at BOG bookmakers), and also reported that odds generally held up well for some time after email receipt only around 2% lower, on average, half an hour later (details in table below). Note also that odds had generally shortened a bit by the start of the race (SP 7% lower than advised price) normally a good indication that the tipster has found some value in the market.
Advised Odds 6.16 Achieved Odds 6.10 (-1%) Odds After 30 Mins 6.04 (-2%) SP 5.72 (-7%)

Note: Data covers 283 bets over the period 18/11/12 to 30/1/13.

Rugby Results: Rugby League and Rugby Union tips were provided for free during the formative Year 1, whilst in Year 2 all rugby tips were provided only as part of the members Premium Tips service. The table below provides a summary of performance of all selections to date.
Bets 374 385 759 201 Stakes 388.0 642.5 1030.5 380.0 Strike Rate 59.6% 50.9% 55.2% 51.2% Profit 115.7 100.9 216.6 47.6 ROI 29.8% 15.7% 21.0% 12.5% ROC ** 144.6% 126.2% 270.8%

Year 1 Year 2 Total Proofed Bets **

**Note: Covers period from first tip on 4 May 2011 (start of Year 1) to 18 March 2013 (Week 43, Year 2). SBC proofing covers six month period from 18 Sep 2012 onwards. Return on Capital (ROC) based on 80 point bank.

Again, like the racing tips, Year 2 has seen more modest returns than in Year 1, but the overall ROI of 21.0% remains excellent, with both years results enabling subscribers to comfortably double their bank based on our recommended 80 point minimum. The equity curve below adds further encouragement, indicating a relatively smooth ride to profits, in step with the high strike rates of 50 60%.

Page | 8

Staking/ Betting Bank: Staking was generally down at the one point level in Year 1 whilst, in Year 2, larger staked bets (typically two points, but occasionally up to a maximum of four) have often been advised. The maximum drawdown to date has been only 26.5 points but, given the increase in average staking for Year 2, we would recommend a more conservative bank of around 80 points. Odds Availability: One possible concern with the rugby element of the service remains around market liquidity and how well odds will hold up if a larger volume of subscribers bet on these selections. Georges view, as an industry insider, is pragmatic and helpful: Theres a big variance between bookmakers and between leagues. Championship rugby league for example, has very low limits, but often represents the best value. So while you might not be able to get on for much, your actual yield will be similar because the ROI will be much higher. Competitions like Super League, NRL, Top 14, Pro 12 will all be in for very decent limits with most bookmakers. Unfortunately the best prices do go, bet365 are especially quick to react. The shop based firms, Hills, Ladbrokes, Paddys, Coral will all hold their prices for decent limits for long enough. An average stake of 75-100 on our rugby tips will a) always be laid and b) ensure that accounts last a long time. This is something that we may revisit further down the line. Racing and Rugby Combined a Mini Portfolio: Given the strength of results so far, the contrast in strike rates and the very different nature of the two sports, there seems to be a lot of value in creating a balanced mini portfolio by betting on both GT Tips racing and rugby tips. As the volume of racing tips is much larger, potential subscribers may want to aim for better balance by either: restricting the number of racing selections they bet on; a conservative approach may be to just bet on Nap/NB as George favours, or an aggressive (and riskier) alternative would be to drop some of the lower odds racing tips or, as we have done for the table below, doubling rugby stakes to increase exposure to the steadier element of the mix.
Combined Racing/Rugby Year 1 Year 2 Total Bets 1628 1819 3447 Stakes 2150.2 2828.5 4978.7 Profit 509.8 358.6 868.4 ROI 23.7% 12.7% 17.4% ROC ** 339.8% 239.1% 578.9%

**Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 150 point bank, and assumes double stakes for advised rugby selections

Service Practicality: Our tester, Michael, did have some concerns regarding advice times; he found the service a little hard to follow due to information being sent through at quite a wide variety of times and some lack of clarity on when to expect the next advice email. George acknowledges that whilst they aim to release horse racing selections in a time window, typically between 10.00 11.00 each day, the rugby tips are much more erratic, partly due to the need to wait for key team news, together with the idiosyncrasies of each competition. George is looking to improve on communication with members to help these practicality issues: What we could do is communicate more with our members, and this is something we have started doing through twitter and the emails. For example, we put out a notice on a recent Wednesday saying, we have a tip for Thursday nights Championship match, but as were waiting for more bookies to release their prices we wont be publishing the tip till tomorrow lunchtime.

Page | 9

Customer Service: The service appears to be becoming more professional in its approach on the back of the move to a subscriber-based model last May. George has been very helpful and responsive during our testing phase and work developing this review. Service In Summary: The service has a lot to recommend about it with a wide range of sports coverage and the advantage of having a whole team of industry contacts and insiders using the benefits of their experience to generate a relatively high volume of tips. In our view, the horse racing and rugby tips stand out as the two most attractive elements of the service, and we can see a lot of sense in combining this two elements into a mini portfolio to ensure a balanced mix of risk and stability. At 50 per quarter or 150 for annual subscription we think that GT Tips offers excellent value for money, and is worth serious consideration for anyone looking to expand the breadth of their betting portfolio. Our main caveat remains around odds availability for the rugby tips, particularly if subscriber numbers increase, and this may be something we return to at a later date. At this time, we wish to observe performance for a few more months before giving consideration to any Hall of Fame upgrade. We will be reporting on both the Rugby and Horse Racing results separately in our Tipster Profit Reports. Service Ratings: Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 3 Cost: 4 Transparency: 4 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Overall: 3.5 Rating: Recommend

THE SBC Premium Area High Quality Tipsters Services & Expert Guides - Developed By SBC For Members
Upgrade your SBC membership with SBC's very own Premium Tipsters or Guides - all exclusively designed to help you in your profitable betting quest. Whether its following long-term winning racing, football and golf tips, helping avoiding bookmaker restrictions or learning how to bet like a professional gambler there is something for you. Find out more at the SBC Premium Area: www.secretbettingclub.com/premium

Page | 10

SBC INTERVIEW: A BOOKIE INSIDER SPEAKS POACHER TURNED GAMEK EEPER ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS

Betting as we all know is a battle between bookmaker and punter, therefore the more we can educate ourselves as to how the former works, the greater our chances of making money longterm. To help us gauge insight into the workings of a modern day bookmaker, here at SBC we secured an exclusive interview with a former odds compiler/trader who was happy to reveal more on just how they work. Although wishing to remain anonymous so as not to reveal his identity he was happy to discuss a range of topics frankly and honestly. We put to him a series of questions put forward by you via email and on our forum to help find answers to the issues that affect you. SBC: Hi, thanks for agreeing to do an interview with us - it's not often we come across somebody from the 'other side' to help share insight with us punters. Bookie Insider: That's my pleasure - I am more than happy to answer your members questions in the hope I can help them with their betting. Firstly to introduce yourself, can you give a bit of info on your past betting experience (without revealing who you are and who you worked for of course!? Sure. I have almost 20 years of experience of the betting industry as an industry trader, bettor and professional tipster. When trading this involved working on as many as 10 different sports in various capacities from in-play trading to information gathering and customer monitoring. As part of this interview, we asked SBC members to put forward their burning questions and many of the most popular revolved around the topic of account restrictions and closures. To kick-start this topic, Andy wanted to know about the criteria that bookmakers use to close accounts. Is it the amount won, the percentage of winners, high withdrawals, high balances or simply betting on SBC tipsters selections ? Money won is not the issue here - instead it is the type of business, which is the concern. You can be a losing customer and still be cut - for example if you are an arber. If the customer appears to be price sensitive and regularly finding value and invariably prices shorten almost immediately after they back a selection, those customers will be monitored and likely restricted. Onto the main topic here and Mat Hare wondered if you had any tips to helping avoid restrictions? It's getting harder and harder to stay undetected. The bigger your stake the more likely you might come to a trader's attention. The more obscure the market, the more likely you'll be looked into and monitored more closely. It's common place for shrewd customers to be restricted but kept on as a way of alerting the trader to a bad price. Like a red flag, if you will, so that the trader can double check that market/price. If you're a new account and you're keying in on particular markets, sooner or later you will be detected. It's not so much whether you're winning, it's whether your bets appear to be value bets. You could be losing overall and still be restricted because your business is shrewd and liable to win in the long run. Football, Horse Racing and Tennis have the biggest monitoring focus and there is an increase in focus on US Sports.

Page | 11

If you're late betting (you have access to faster feeds or pictures) and are detected, you'll likely be restricted very shortly after. If you take advantage of technical errors on the website, where prices may be incorrect because of a trading application glitch, you'll be flagged up as someone who is aware of such instances. And thus more likely to be restricted as you're aware of weak points that can be exploited. OK, so say you had an account closed for being too successful, John emailed to ask if there is a good way to open another account with the same bookmaker, without attracting their suspicion? The best way is to use a new identity (preferably male), with a new address and number and new card. If any one of these is the same you are liable to be shown the door early or not even get through the door to begin with. The clampdown on this has improved for the bookmaker over the years. Many years ago I once had more than 10 accounts with the same company online. All with the same name and address, but with different cards, this wouldnt be possible anymore to the best of my knowledge and experience. So you wouldn't advocate opening an account in your wife's name for example? Andy emailed to state that he did exactly that and found his account restricted after just 4 bets. Opening a female account is one of the worst ways to avoid being detected. Female accounts are viewed with immense scepticism and those accounts immediately monitored once discovered. Its possible hiding your IP in conjunction with a female account caused an early restriction in this instance. How about Cookies? Diwoharajy asked about how bookies utilise them to help track those with multiple accounts. As far as I am aware, cookies do not play a role in customer monitoring. The concept is simple - if an account has been shut down and a similar one crops up placing bets along the same theme and patterns it will likely be spotted sooner or later. Qiqiwyje also wanted to know if the bookies are restricting accounts based on a clients IP address? Customers from certain countries are automatically restricted when their account is opened because of repeated bad business from those areas, mostly Eastern European and Asian. However, they are monitored with a view to restrictions being lifted if it's been believed that they are a good customer for the company (not price sensitive, bets on many different sports, just a regular punter and not someone who is expert in what they are doing). This is fascinating - as it was a common thought that if using a new unrestricted account, you needed to login via a new computer and internet connection. Making yourself as unconnected as possible with a past winning account. Do you believe this is unnecessary or just not something you ever came across? IP tracking isnt something Ive come across but it may well be other companies make more use of that information. Certainly its beneficial to open a new account with a dynamic IP, but its entirely possible you could get away with not doing so in some instances. So are there any patterns or things that we have to be aware of as regards restrictions? Thefiend asked a good question about why some accounts go for years and yet others are closed in a day. Are we missing something?

Page | 12

Customer monitoring is performed by traders so its entirely possible an account may go undetected for a long time if traders are not fully focused and concentrating at all times. There are other teams involved in customer monitoring but the traders play a significant role as you would expect. So has the amount of restricted or closed accounts increased in recent years? Has there been a direct clampdown on removing as many 'shrewd punters' as possible? Absolutely, the amount of restricted and closed accounts is at its peak at the moment and increasing further. There is a far greater emphasis on customer monitoring now than there was even as recently as three years ago. It wasnt always taken care of as diligently as could have been, but that is changing fast. How about dealing with the reality of closed or restricted accounts? Nashnash wondered if there is any way to have these limitations removed? If an account is closed there is no reason why it would be opened again. If an account is restricted because of the origin of the account - Eastern European/Asian - it is possible restrictions would be lifted once it is believed the account is a good one for the company based on the type of business on the account. It will take a number of ill-advised bets for this to be noticed and acted upon. Andy also wondered if it was worth "throwing a few quid" at odd sports on expected losers just to put the bookmakers off the scent ? Ive known colleagues to try themselves to avoid being restricted with other companies. Ive never known this to be an adequate or worthwhile endeavour. I have never tried it myself nor would I intend to. If youre good you will eventually be restricted, there is no sense in just handing money back in the vain hope of not being detected. Defeats the entire purpose of what you are trying to do - which is make money. Unkle asked exactly why UK bookies choose to manage their customers through account restrictions rather than just using these customers to manage their markets more actively and effectively? Bookmakers like shrewd business to keep a track of variance in pricing in which they may be out of line, but that doesnt mean they will just happily give money away where they can help it. The restrictions also alert traders as to the type of business the customer provides and makes monitoring groups of the same types of business more efficient. So how about taking matters into your own hands - Mat wondered if online account holders find out what restrictions apply to their account, what notes are recorded against them etc? Can this be done without resorting to a Data Protection Act request? And does submitting a DPA request for this info mark the account holder out in a bad way on the bookies's systems? Im not aware that this is possible. Thats not to say it isnt but it isn't something that has crossed my path. Similarly Mat also wondered if taking advantage of the various promotions (e.g. Bet365's 50 in-play offer on the football, the miscellaneous Cheltenham specials offered by many firms etc) mean one is more likely to be restricted/closed in the future?

Page | 13

No. The promotions are there for all to use to invite and encourage new business. It is not something that will likely increase your restriction issues and you should take advantage of them where you can. So for the SBC members reading this - what tips if any do you have for punters keen to avoid suffering restrictions and closures? Also How do you foresee this issue playing out in future are we likely see more clamping down on shrewd punters? Its hard to give any advice to a genuine bettor who is just very good at what they do. Eventually they will be restricted to one level or another. Thats just a natural consequence of the industry currently. Although its very frustrating, it must be taken as a compliment to have your account restricted. If you take advantage of late-bets, website errors - palpable or otherwise, you are far likely to be restricted sooner. So the best way to go undetected the longest is to be an honest bettor. Theres a huge difference between spotting value based on expertise and spotting value that is clearly a palpable error. If youre after a quick buck to profit from errors you can expect to be restricted sooner than if you were just legitimately betting on valid prices. To give you an example, if England are 7/1 to win the Rugby World Cup but you believe they should be 11/2 best price, that is simply a pricing evaluation that you may or may not be proven correct on. However, if a production or website error means that England are being displayed as 17/1 to win the Rugby World Cup and you pile in on that, youre just flagging yourself up as someone who is immediately on to errors of this nature. Ok so moving on from the topic of restrictions, Mike UK posted to ask how the decision is made to increase or decrease odds on any bet? What do they look at - is it other bookmakers, the money down, betfair or automated systems? The odds on offer should never be bigger than the lay price on Betfair for arbing purposes and so prices will be adjusted based on that. There are occasions where arbs are offered both pre-event and in-play. Thats simply a case of who is on the ball first and fastest. Most price changes are manual human adjustments. If a market/selection has hit its liability trigger then the price will automatically come off the board until it is reset and back up on site to bet on at a shorter price if desired. So does the price offered by a rival bookmaker on a market make much difference? How about in a niche market - I suspect some bookies simply price up based on what their competitors offer? Is that true? It matters with respect to offering arbs, which no company wants to be doing. For niche markets there is certainly an element of copying going on for certain sports. I made a tidy sum myself during the London Olympics on some lesser known sports where certain bookmakers were clearly woefully underprepared. I know of an instance of a trader trading an in-play event during the Olympics where he - quite literally - knew nothing about the sport or its participants. He simply copied another firms pricing as the event took place, he was in no position to make any changes based off of his own knowledge or experience. Unkle wanted to know about the difference between UK and Asian markets especially when it comes to football betting. It seems like UK bookies are stuck in the past and missing an opportunity to become a big player. Why does no UK bookie make a real attempt to compete in these markets?

Page | 14

The Asian books have far higher turnover than UK books. In fact, the money changing hands in Asia dwarfs the UK books and so its the UK books who look to Asian pricing for guidance of the market rather than attempting to set it themselves. Mat Hare asked how a number of questions on the trading teams at a typical bookies. How big they were, how much this varied across different sports/firms, the number of traders each sport has and how many sports a trader will have to cover? With so many matches being traded now turnover varies significantly match to match, some matches dont take any bets at all - literally. Trading teams are growing as the demand to trade more and more events grows from the top brass to keep up with competitors. Football trading is the biggest with as many as 30 traders and upwards, Tennis & US Sports have smaller teams but growing all the time with a minimum of 10 in each. Horse Racing is a relatively small department as well as Golf and Cricket. Football has the most traders by far and this will never change. A trader might trade as little as 1 sport exclusively or multiple sports depending on various factors from need to expertise to willingness. It is a fallacy to believe a trader is expert in the sport he is trading; this is not always the case at all. You would be surprised how little some traders know about the sports they have been asked to cover. In some cases its absolutely embarrassing. Mat also asked if traders at your firm placed sneaky bets with rival firms based on bets made on his firm's books? Not that I'm aware of, I certainly haven't, but no doubt it may have happened from time to time. How about tipsters? Do any traders follow or subscribe to them? This was a question put forward by a good few SBC members.. Many of the traders are bettors themselves and will follow various tipsters for their own personal betting or interest. Of which that intel might come in handy for them while trading at work, but its not done for the sake of the company per say. I can't say I know of any the company actively monitors. I'm sure it may become more common place to follow in the future. This is curious, not least because some of the very best tipsters often find their odds slashed so quickly, it's almost as if there is an insider involved. It makes sense as a 300 subscription to a profitable service could conceivably save huge sums of money for the right bookie. How about business like ours at SBC? Is it of much concern to a bookmaker that punters are getting together and becoming more professional and organised? Its a concern but not to the level you might expect. There is nothing a bookmaker can control externally other than their own pricing, liabilities, promotion and marketing. If a bookmaker performs well in those areas it is largely inconsequential in the grand scheme of things if there are a very small minority who know enough to beat the book. 98% of gamblers are losing ones, so the bookmaker has nothing to be worried about over the long haul. MikeUK wondered if it was a concern to traders on the number of people out there developing software using mathematical algorithms that can automatically trade on the bets? To what lengths, if any, do bookmakers go to in order to counteract this?

Page | 15

Its a concern to an extent as these models are liable to be damaging to a companys profits and margins but there is little that can be done to counteract it. If a customer has a model that identifies value and triggers those bets and beats the book over the long haul - they are obviously very good at what they do and deserve to profit. They will inevitably be restricted sooner or later and that will be further proof of their success. Mat also asked how Betfair (& other exchanges) have affected the UK bookmakers? Is turnover up or down? Ditto profits & profit margins. Turnover, profit and profit margins are all headed upwards. More events, more turnover, more turnover, more profit. Margins might fluctuate but still heading in the right direction for the bookmaker. Another hot topic was in relation to bookies sharing client data. Quiqiwyje wanted to know whether this went on? As far as I'm aware absolutely no client data is shared between the company I was with and any competitors, leading or otherwise. In fact quite the opposite is true. Finally...what tips or expertise can you share for SBC members to help them overcome the bookmakers? Have we missed anything? Information is king. There is nothing that can compare with being as well prepared and knowledgeable about the sports that you bet. In some cases you will be more expert at your chosen sport or sports than the traders setting and adjusting the pricing with bookmakers. Ive always taken beating the bookmaker as a challenge. Bookmakers have their overrounds and margins and yet Ive been beating them for almost 20 years. Many of you will be in the same position, possibly for an even longer period of time. There is little substitute for knowledge and experience. Thanks very much for answering our questions.

Page | 16

REVIEW: STRIKELINE RACING REVIEWER: NICK WARD LONGER ODDS RACING SERVICE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON Service Name: Strikeline Racing Contact: Dan Lyons Telephone: +353 86 1211 554 Website: www.strikelineracing.com Sports Covered: Horse Racing Bet Frequency: Approx 50 a month Pricing: 55 for one month, 160 for three months, 299 for six months, 569 for 12 months SBC Discount: Free SMS text alerts on one month package, and 12% discount on packages of three months and upwards Bet Delivery: Email/SMS (free with 6/12 month packages)

Email: strikelineracing@gmail.com

Service In Brief: Horse racing service running since September 2009. The service is run by exodds compiler Dan Lyons and focuses on selections at longer odds (strike rate around 11%). Service in Detail: Strikeline Racing is a long-running racing tipster service, operated by Dan Lyons and Henry Croskery. Dan is responsible for all selections, whilst Henry handles administrative elements and occasionally adds his opinions on Irish and National Hunt form. They provide daily racing tips, which are sent out by email and SMS each morning, typically around two hours before the start of the days action. SMS are supplied for free if taking up a 6 or 12 month subscription, although there is a fee on 1 and 3 month packages. Subscribers are informed by email the night before racing if plans are likely to change, and Dan does occasionally send earlier price alerts advising members to get on early where a selection is seen as a likely market steamer. Each selection is backed up by a thorough and well argued commentary, as shown by this recent example winner from Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival: Benefficient 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed), AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP. By Beneficial out of a Supreme Leader mare - the breeding screams Cheltenham Festival and I expect the selection to improve on the faster ground. In five chase starts, he has only been out of the first two once, at Leopardstown last Christmas when he ran below his rating on soft ground. His trainer describes him as a good moving horse who will be better on faster ground. What I find interesting is his form behind Harry Topper at Newbury last November, when connections took the trouble to book Tony McCoy. He had Harry Topper beaten but idled and lost concentration, that rival is probably an OR160 horse on his best form and having won since, the form has a solid look to it. That makes the addition of a first time hood really interesting today - it should serve to keep his concentration on the job at hand. This doesn't look the best renewal apart from Dynaste, and I'm happy to desert Captain Conan and Aupcharlie in favour of the selection who I feel might be the improver. Texas Jack's form has been franked but I'm not sure he will have this run to suit. Some of the other form lines (including Dynaste's) have taken knocks in recent days, but Benefficient has that interesting Newbury form to his name and I am inclined to side with him at the prices, particularly with a few of the trainers horses showing up well at this meeting. Dan describes his selection methodology as quite similar to that of Tom Segal of Pricewise fame and provided us with a bit more insight into his approach: Although I have a strong maths and statistics background, given that I worked as an odds compiler for a leading independent bookmaker in Ireland, I wouldn't be a stats fanatic outside of sire stats, trainer and jockey habits etc. I do happen to have an unusually good memory for numbers and apparently meaningless events like horse races, and I tend to remember very clearly

Page | 17

how a horse ran or small details I might notice about a race. For that reason, I've learned to base my selections quite a lot on what I see on the track, and video replays are the tool I'd use most often. Having spent a few years in the business, the stats and other do's and don'ts come naturally enough you need to be able to spot things other people just aren't looking for, at least occasionally! You can access the history of past selections via 2 different blogs that Strikeline have at http://strikelineracing.blogspot.co.uk/ & http://strikelineracing.webs.com/apps/blog/. The current blog is updated twice monthly and subscribers also now receive a regular spreadsheet update detailing all the services results. Service Proofing: All bets have been proofed to us at SBC since the end of March 2012. Prior to this date a record exists featuring each day's activity, which is there for all to access. Although this record is unproofed by ourselves, Dan confidently stated "I could challenge you to give me five random dates since September 2009 and I could send on the blog links to show the exact e-mail we sent on that day, or the next day if there was no e-mail. All these links are available to any member of Joe Public who visits our main page, both blogs in their entirety are a click away." Service Results: Although all Strikelines results are available by tracking back though their blogs, detailed information in spreadsheet form was only available to us for the period from January 2011 onwards. Dan did provide us with monthly profit totals for the earlier period (September 2009 December 2010), which can be summarised as follows: 2009 = 340.0 points profit (from September launch) 2010 = 527.6 points profit.

Details on the number of bets available, totals staked etc were not readily available, so we cannot calculate ROI and strike rates for this period. Thus we were unable to include it in our working out. The table below provides a summary of performance over the period from January 2011 to the end of February 2013, for which we have full information available:
Bets 669 606 87 1362 573 Stakes 2649.5 2311.0 354.0 5314.5 2212.5 Strike Rate 12.3% 9.9% 12.6% 11.2% 9.9% Profit 407.3 -83.7 23.0 346.7 -48.2 ROI 15.4% -3.6% 6.5% 6.5% -2.2% ROC ** 81.5% -16.7% 4.6% 69.3%

2011 2012 2013 Total Proofed Bets **

**Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 500 point betting bank. Proofing period (31/3/12 28/2/13) started around the time of the large drawdown see below for details.

On first glance, the loss generated over the 573 proofed bets maybe off-putting but this of course, does not include the 2009 or 2010 results. It is also noticeable the vast difference in performance during 2012 where something seemed to go wrong just as we started proofing! Across the board, the strike-rate was down, profit and in turn ROI and ROC were in complete contrast. The equity curve in the graph below helps show things a little more clearly.

Page | 18

As you can gauge from the very clear dip in the graph, between the 22nd March and 28th May in 2012, the service suffered a brutal losing run; in the space of 129 bets, only three winners were selected, resulting in a drawdown totaling 367 points. We asked Dan what he thought had happened during this period: We actually changed our staking system in early 2012 to a win only approach having done a regressive analysis of results that suggested win only would benefit us more. However, it didn't take into account various aspects of our selection methods or client psychology and was binned in mid May. The person who suggested it is no longer working for us, as it happens, and it was never an idea I was very comfortable with - if it's not broken, don't fix it. I've no problem with you highlighting it if need be, but I do feel that when analysing drawdowns, a false impression is created by those months because the staking system was completely different. As it happens, we reverted to our old "aggressive each-way" policy which I designed myself before 2009. We finished the year with six profitable months out of the next seven. Strikelines change in Each Way vs Win only staking policy can be clearly seen from the figure in the graph below.

Page | 19

In reality, the proportion of bets advised as Each Way started to tail off later in 2011, and then stopped completely during the period Dan described above. Our estimate is that whilst the change in staking certainly accentuated the size of the drawdown, with the selections supplied, there would have still been a sizeable drop in the equity curve under the original staking system (we estimate 250 300 points). We debated this point with Dan from Strikeline and he made the fair point that the adjusted staking also ensured a different type of bet was put forward... "The loss of 250 to 300 points assumes that I would have selected all the same horses under the original staking system - in other words that the only difference is the staking system. This is wholly inaccurate. During the time we used win only, many of my selections were what I would describe as "win or bust" type selections. The entire process of selecting differs because, when playing each-way, the emphasis is more on the shape of the race, the each-way terms, and the chances (or not) of other horses placing as well as those of your own horse winning - rather than solely on the chances of your selection winning. As I alluded to, win only was not a selection process I was comfortable with and I don't think it is a coincidence that the service returned to normal when it was abandoned." This is a logical argument and would go some-way to explaining the difference in performance during this period. What can't be disputed is that the run did happen and we do need to see how the service bounces back from it. So far the answer is that it has indeed recovered. Since the end of the drawdown period in May, the service has gained back all of the loss by November 2012, before leveling off in the last three months or so. Staking: This is another aspect of the services results which merits closer attention. Bets are advised using a 1-10 point staking plan, with average stakes around 4 points per selection. We checked out how well this was working and whether Strikelines more confident selections (advised at 5-10 points) outperformed the lower staked bets.
EACH WAY BETS 1-3 points 4 points 5 points 6-10 points Total WIN BETS 1-3 points 4 points 5 points 6-10 points Total Bets 181 92 135 49 457 Bets 315 310 206 36 867 Stakes 504.5 367.5 675.0 368.0 1915.0 Stakes 815.0 1240.0 1030.0 232.0 3317.0 Av Odds 27.3 19.4 13.8 9.7 19.8 Av Odds 15.3 7.9 5.9 5.5 10.0 Profit -29.3 223.0 349.9 68.7 612.3 Profit -253.0 -234.2 145.7 86.0 -255.5 ROI -5.8% 60.7% 51.8% 18.7% 32.0% ROI -31.0% -18.9% 14.1% 37.1% -7.7%

Note: Analysis covers period January 2011- February 2013.

Whilst we have to be careful not to over interpret small sample results, the patterns seem quite clear, with bets at the lower end of the staking scale showing much weaker returns. We can see from the average odds that the 1-3 point bets generally represent some real long-shots, something that hasnt worked out for the service in recent years, although one or two winners from these bets (like Benefficient at Cheltenham) could soon alter the picture. Advised win bets have also performed much worse (ROI -7.7%) than EW bets (+32.0%).

Page | 20

Dan sent out a service update email to all subscribers at the end of last year. In it, he detailed some plans for Strikeline in 2013, including a plan to cut down the amount of bets we advise by around 10%-15%. It will be interesting to see if this change helps address some of the weaknesses highlighted above. Betting Banks: Given the average stake size (4 points), together with the relatively low strike rate and past drawdown history, we would recommend a 500 point bank for this service. Odds Availability: Our tester, Michael, found that quoted odds were generally easy to obtain and held up well, all-be-it from a relatively small sample monitored. Strikeline operate what we think is a very reasonable approach to advising odds, ensuring that their quoted price (or higher) is offered by at least four major bookmakers (checked via http://www.oddschecker.com/). Service Practicality: The service is simple to follow and involves a low workload (typically only 23 bets/day with most Sundays off). Although there are no specific times for emails, advice is generally received a couple of hours before the days racing starts, and changes in plan flagged by email the night before. Customer Service: Dan has been very helpful during our testing and development of this article, and clearly puts a lot of effort into providing his subscribers with some excellent insight into the services selections and ongoing plans. Emails have always been responded to very professionally and diligently with fast responses. The ability to call them on their landline is also a bonus. Service In Summary: The service boasts a long history going back to September 2009 and some excellent returns through until the end of 2011, although this must be tempered by the fact we did not proof them. 2012 was a marginal losing year thanks to a very tough drawdown period and temporary change in staking approach in the first half of the year, but the service has bounced back well in recent months. At 55/month Strikeline is quite expensive relative to other comparable services weve reviewed in recent months, although overall costs can be reduced a bit by taking out longer subscriptions (e.g. 569 for 12 months), all of which are currently subject to a 12% special discount for SBC Members. Our view is that its probably sensible to keep a watching brief on this service for a while to see how things further settle down and develop after the difficult period in Spring of last year. The hope is that Strikeline will continue to showcase their long-term form, which March, April & May 2012 aside was very strong indeed. Service Ratings: Returns: 2.5/5 Risk: 3 Cost: 2 Transparency: 3 Suggested portfolio weighting: 2 Overall: 2.5 (Average) Rating: Watch SBC Discount: Strikeline are offering a special discount to all SBC members. Free SMS text alerts on one month package, and 12% discount on packages of three months and upwards. To take advantage please email strikelineracing@gmail.com and quote "SBC Offer" for details. This offer will be valid until April 4th 2013.

Page | 21

HOW I MAKE MONEY BETTING: PETER GREEN ONE PUNTERS JOURNEY FROM FLOP TO FULL-TIME GAMBLER

Welcome to the first in a series of interviews with punters, tipsters and some of the many experts we work with here at SBC on just how they make money betting. There are many ways to skin a cat and just how each individual makes their money betting is often unique to them. Thus these special interviews are designed to get under the skin of how some punters make it pay - the secrets behind their success and their advice for others trying to emulate them. To kick-start this new series we interviewed 'Peter Green', a long-term SBC member, who makes a consistent income betting each month. Peter was very happy to tackle all our questions, revealing details on the tipsters he follows alongside some brutally honest thoughts on the mistakes he made early on that any aspiring punter should be aware of. SBC: Hi Peter, thanks very much for agreeing to be the first person interviewed as part of our How I Make Money Betting series. To start off with, can you tell us how long you have been betting and a bit about your betting history. Peter: I have being betting since 2004 on and off basis. From 2009 onwards I started to take it seriously. After 3 years of an expensive apprenticeship in 2011 I started to figure out that you could make money from it! I think I might have joined the SBC in 2009, although I didnt start using the tipsters until late 2010. I had to work through my own stupidity first before I gave myself up unreservedly to the Secret Betting Club and following tipsters! Was there any reason why you started betting professionally? Is it an area you have always had an interest in or just something you fell into? I always had an interest in betting. I was one of those people who hoped rather than believed they could make a living from it. Whenever I was a beset by a losing run I would give up and not bet again for 6 months. Circumstances changed for my in 2008 with the economic crash. My work as a Structural Engineer came to an abrupt end. I got into serious betting for the first time. The first year didn't involve anything like following tipsters or having a betting bank. It was pretty disorganised. I got hooked on NBA and used to bet in running every night. It well relatively ok for the first 6 months but then took a serious nosedive. I then started looking for tipsters on the internet. Can you tell me a bit more about your expensive apprenticeship? What did it entail? I presume you made some expensive mistakes - do you care to divulge any? Invariably I made some bad choices. I think I would be too embarrassed to mention them here as I would lose all credibility! But it seemed like I went from bad to worse. A normal person would have given up at this stage. I kept ploughing away hoping rather than believing that I would make a success of it. Was there any particular Eureka! moment that transitioned you from 'apprentice' to master so to speak? I suppose initially there was a light bulb moment rather than a Eureka one. I came across a site called Betadvisor in late 2010 and for the first time I saw league tables of tipsters in a number of different sports. It was glossy and well presented and seemed above board and transparent. For the first time I could see the importance of ROI, staking plans ,etc.

Page | 22

I joined a tennis service called Jonny Bravo and I made profits as per what the service stated. I also saw the potentials profits one could make from horse racing but I always had told myself I would never bet on a sport that I wasnt particularly interested in. Thats why I stayed away from horse racing for so long. Signature racing was the first horse racing service to give me the bug. After that I tried Formbet and Blue Sky racing and I started making money for first time rather than haemorrhaging it, as I had done previously. In January 2011 I delved into the Hall of Fame part of the Secret Betting Club. I joined the cheaper services such as Northern Monkey, Probandit and PJA Racing to get started with. I also distinctly remember sending a email to 'The Judge' every day so I could join his On The Nose service. My persistence paid off as I got in. I then started making proper money for the first time via this portfolio. That, if anything was the eureka moment. I had been in the desert of ignorance for two years and I hoped rather than believed I could make money from betting. The reality was that in the beginning, I was no better than the poor sucker in the bookie shop. Now I had the keys to the door. My next aim was to get big enough to join some of the big players, such as Equine Investments and Systematic Betting. Fascinating - It sounds like you had quite the journey betting wise. So tell me, what sports do you bet upon mostly these days? Nowadays it is mainly horses (which is amusing given that I said I wouldn't bet on it at first). Next would be Football and golf. Before I used to bet on US sports a lot but never really cracked it. Do you have any preference to sports you bet on? It's the horses again. The betting is available daily and the ROC is much greater than other sports. I like betting on football but I have yet to achieve the same returns, although it's always fun to tune into Sky Sports News on Saturday between 4 and 5 and see the results unfurl. I have grown to really enjoy golf betting over the last year, it's fun tuning in on a Sunday evening if your man is in the final shake up. How about the racing - you say you bet mostly on that, do you enjoy watching races you have an involvement in, or is it purely a way of making money first, sport second. It is about making money first and most races I dont see because I am busy during the week. However I do enjoy watching a day's racing when I have nothing else to do. One thing I dont like is laying horses. First of all one bad lay can ruin a good days racing. Also when you are laying a horse you are not watching the race you are just looking at that horse all the way through. The ROI is also low. I like backing horses and I like the fact that one or two wins can turn a day around completely. A factor for not watching races during the week is that if you lose by a head it can be the difference between winning 1200 or losing 50. That can wreck your head for the rest of the day and affect your day job. For me having an emotional detachment is important as I can dwell on losses too much. Would that be your number one tip for punters then? Don't watch your bets live - simply chalk up the profit and loss on a spreadsheet? I think for most days it would be a good idea not to watch the races live. You need an emotional detachment and I find if I start watching races I get very absorbed in them and it takes away from my other work. However it's very hard to resist getting involved in the big festivals. I enjoy that for the sense of occasion as well as the races. How often do you bet? i.e. Is it full-time, part-time, mornings only?

Page | 23

I would have to say full on part time! I get on my laptop/phone between 9-12 in the morning 7 days a week. It requires my undivided attention as time is of the essence in getting the bets on. I work in media in the afternoon. I like the mix as the latter is quite social whilst the former is not. I have no problem in motivation to get up 7 days a week. I have been to the university of adversity as regards betting for years so now that I have the (semi) good times I am not going to waste the opportunity. I like that phrase - the university of adversity, I am sure many punters can empathise with it. Do you think that having been through the mixer betting wise and seen it all before, it helps you cope with the ups and downs of betting? Yes absolutely. No matter how bad a run I have now it doesnt compare in any way to the crap I went through 2009 to the end of 2010. Rudyard Kipling said if you meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two imposters the same. I tend not get too high when I have good months nor too low when I have bad ones. January 2013 was the best month I have ever had betting. That was followed by a horrendous first three weeks in February. So when I am having a bad week or month I say to myself that I am having a good year. I always look at the bigger picture. Also due to the quality of information and tipsters at my disposal I know that I am going turn a healthy profit at the end of the year. In the bad old days I didnt have that faith. So that takes away a lot of the fear and anxiety. Do you have any strategies for riding out losing runs or coping mentally with them to share with other punters? I think you just stick to your guns. Whether I am in a losing run or a winning run I am still doing the same thing. I dont try and alter my staking plan or change tipsters. For example there is a tipster called On the Nose who has fallen out of the hall of fame and has become a lot less fashionable than what he was. He had a bad start to the year and there was a huge temptation on my part to ditch him. However he has had a great March including Cheltenham where he absolutely blew it out of the park with Carrick Boy (66/1 on betfair!) and Windmere Lad (20/1). It paid off to stick with him and it worked out in the end. A big enough betting bank is important to absorb a losing run. Psychologically that is important as you know you are prepared for the worst case scenario. A losing run that goes on for a long time can be tough. It be hard to get out of bed and turn on your laptop after you have taken a few weeks of a hammering. But you have to because if you dont then you could miss the day when the turnaround starts to happen. I understand you follow a number of tipsters, do you care to share which ones? I follow the big boys now. (Systematic Betting, Equine Investments, etc.) It took me a long time to get to sign up for Systematic. Nearly two years in fact. But my gambling has elevated to a level where I make a good part time living and potentially a good full time living if I chose it. I still hang onto Northern Monkey , Chasemaster, PJA Racing Flat and On the Nose. They are cheap but still come up with the goods. Also I am a member of the Morning Value Service and High Volume Racing. I am always on the look-out for the next Systematic! Also Aiden Monroe of course. In football I follow The Football Analyst and Fink Tank. I didnt join Skeeve this year as I thought the subscription costs became too expensive. I will probably join Summer of Football sometime soon when I have a betting bank to support it. In golf I follow Paul Chandler Burns tips.

Page | 24

That's an interesting mix of services - you like a tipster that pumps out a high turnover of bets. Is that simply because it suits your ability to place a lot of bets each morning or because you have found it the quickest route to success? I think a bit of both. I have this window of opportunity of three hours every morning between 912. Thats seven days a week . Its a big commitment so I aim to make the maximum use of it. A high turnover of bets means a high ROC. That is the quickest route to success. But I am delighted with the results since November when I got to join Systematic Betting. So if it aint broke.. How do you choose the tipsters you follow? They have to issue bets between 9-12 am. Before 9 is pointless for me because I am banned from all bookies and why I had to drop Russell Clarke. The subscription costs have to be pretty reasonable with a +10% minimum ROI. Also their customer service has to be good. Do you have a portfolio of tipsters you use? Yes. I have 7 horse racing tipsters, 2 Football, 1 golf. I would love to have the CD Bargain services on my list, however it just became impossible for me to place bets at 6.30pm the evening before. Do you use us at SBC to help pick out the tipsters for you or do you perform your own research? What else do you look for when choosing a tipster? Good customer services, results updated on time? I rely on SBC to pick out my tipsters. Its a volatile game so I need a reputable watchdog to let me which tipsters are the real deal and which are not. I used to seek out new tipsters from other sources. But my success was varied on that front much like my personal betting forays! You mention you have been banned by the bookies - how do you get on? Yes I have been banned completely (or restricted to 1.50 a bet!). I have had my own accounts shut down as well as pseudo accounts, different IP addresses, etc,. It proved exasperating. I have to do my business via Bet Butler and Betfair. If they closed I dont know what I would do. That's interesting as both Bet Butler and Betfair have come in for criticism from some quarters. How do you find betting with each of them? I find Bet Butler OK as I do the vast bulk of my bets over the phone with them -around 90 %. That means they have to be 50 plus in value. At this stage I have built up a personal rapport with the traders. I find now I get the same odds as when I had the full complement of bookmakers minus the funny bookmakers(i.e. Stan James, Blue Square, Coral). Also there is the fact that I dont get BOG and there is a 3% commission. When it comes to betting online it is either Bet Butler or Betfair. Whichever has the best odds. I m happy enough with both of them as they are the only places where I am unbannable! Do you place other bets if not advised by tipsters...e.g. systems, your own ratings No I dont. I learnt a valuable lesson after two years of failed betting. Whatever you think do the opposite! Maybe that would be a good basis for setting up a service! I rely on people who are a lot more talented than me. I find thats good for my piece of mind. It things go wrong I can blame them. If it's my fault then I take it more personally. It's a logical thought process. After all if your washing machine broke, you wouldn't repair it yourself, you would call a plumber to fix it. Yet people seem to baulk at paying an expert for tips - even if they are better than them at it. Do you think it's a case of knowing not just your strengths, but your weaknesses when betting?

Page | 25

That was the most valuable lesson I learnt betting. I display all the qualities that a gambler shouldnt have. I am impulsive, I get emotionally involved, I end up chasing loses, etc. Once you realise your own shortcomings then you have won half the battle. It's like surrendering to win! The quality of tipsters is improving all the time as now it is viable for them to make a full time living from it. A successful punter has to spend enough time and energy already trying to figure out where he is going to put his bets on. Moving onto your actual performance, are you happy to share some idea on your own betting returns? Lately it has proved more volatile if anything. January was my best month ever with 1420 points profit. February was bad with a loss of 320 points. Having said that it would have been a lot worse if I did not have a good last week to the month. Overall my profits have improved year on year as the quality of the tipsters I use has improved and my betting bank has got larger. Do you find having a large portfolio of tipsters helps smooth out any bad runs? Yes I do. Last year I had 11 winning months out of 12. That was due to the large portfolio that I am running. For example, On the Nose has come up trumps in March whilst the other more fashionable tipsters have been poor. For that reason I am slightly up for the month. Although now I am beginning to come up with the Kenny Rodgers plan for a couple of tipsters. It's called you have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away... I find there are two weak periods of the year:- mid March to mid May and September /October. I find that a couple of tipsters perform below par in these periods and it is best to shelve them. When I have it worked out I will sell it to you What would you say to anyone starting out on a budget, for whom the idea of following expensive tipsters or having a portfolio seems a pipe dream? Everyone has to start off somewhere right? I would say first realise your own limitations and dont make the mistakes I made in the first two years of my betting. You dont have to go through an expensive apprenticeship to be successful at betting. In the hall of fame there are affordable quality tipsters such as Northern Monkey, CD Systems, PJA Racing et al, so already there is a quality portfolio you can start with. Once you start making money then it's up to you what level you want to take it too. I always wanted to take it too a semi-professional/professional level. That takes dedication much like any job but the rewards are very worthwhile. I take it you also keep your own records of performance - is this particularly detailed and why do you feel it's important to do this? I update my records every evening. It s pretty easy now because that my betting is centralised on Bet Butler and Betfair. Once upon a time I had so many bookmakers accounts that I forgot that I had money left in one of them. Nine months later I stumbled across it by accident! My records are not very detailed in that dont break them down into ROI or ROC. However it is very accurate on the profit and loss I am making. Do you operate any specific staking plans? Yes absolutely. I have a level points staking plan and stick semi rigidly to the plans laid out by Systematic , Equine and others.

Page | 26

How about how much you place on each bet advised? Do you look to increase this on a regular basis or are you happy to hit a certain profit target without getting too greedy or ambitious? I place a bet to what my bank supports. If Systematic Betting specifies a 100 point bank then I stick to that. High Volume Racing specifies a 200 point bank. I have a 150 point for that as I feel the crossover between all the tipsters will cover it. I dont increase it on a regular basis. Every 6 months I would say. There are two periods I apply a slight increase in my stakes. The start of November when the proper NH season swings into action and mid May when the flat season proper starts. Finally - what would be your advice for any punter looking to emulate you? Avoid the university of adversity! It could put an abrupt end to your betting career. Use the Secret Betting Club as your central point of reference. There is a lot shysters and crap out there so stay well away from it. Get on the cheaper tipsters in the Hall of fame first and then work your way up to the big boys. Put your name down on the waiting list for Systematic betting straight away if you have aspirations of being a professional or a semi professional bettor. He should be the cornerstone of every portfolio. You will be on the waiting list for at least 18 months before you will be allowed to join. Dont be too greedy or rash in the early days. Hold your discipline and make sure your betting bank is large enough. Thanks to Peter for his time in answering our questions.

BET BUTLER: FREE 25 BET USEFUL RESOURCE FOR FOOTBALL & RACING ODDS

In his interview, Peter mentioned he uses Bet Butler for the majority of his bets, and for those of you keen to try them out, there is a Free 25 Bet on offer to all new sign-ups. Bet Butler effectively act as a broker to help you get bets on at good prices and/ or in a decent size that you may not have been able to because of restrictions on your betting. In return they take a commission similar to Betfair. We have found Bet Butler to be a very useful service for our betting, although as a few issues have been rightly raised about them in the past, we currently advocate a handle with care notice. Some members have noted occasional issues with bet settlement as well as a few who have had stakes limited. On the flipside, we also note there are others such as Peter who are effusive in their praise of using them. Although Peter utilises them for horse racing betting, we have found them particularly useful as a central resource for obtaining the best football betting odds. Last year we produced a full report on Bet Butler, including some of our thoughts and concerns. We would recommend reading this and being fully aware of them before opening an account. Download here. Please note - the PDF highlights a special low commission rate, although this sadly is no longer available to SBC members. Sign-up for Bet Butler and a Free 25 bet here.

Page | 27

THE RACING RUNDOWN SCOTT ARMSTRONG BIG RACE ANALYSIS, ANTE-POST BETS AND EXPERT STRATEGIES

Welcome to our latest monthly column from racing expert Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman service. Scott is a proven source for racing insight and each month he will be running the rule over one big feature race and also providing tips for the big ante-post events.

THE GRAND NATIONAL

One of the greatest sights in the sporting calendar is forty steeplechasers thundering towards the first fence of the Grand National, roared on by punters packed like sardines in the grandstands. A contest watched the world over and laden with history as both horse and rider attempt to navigate thirty fences to take their place in racing folklore. This month I try and find the winner of the people's race. The Weight Factor For many years 11st 1lb has been the upper weight shouldered by a Grand National winner making it very difficult to win the race in successive years and causing the classiest horses to be disadvantaged. However, recent lenient handicapping by the BHA's head Phil Smith has aimed to restore a balance for the best horses and two from the last three victors have carried over 11st 1lb. In present times, some of the top-weighted entries are running in the National off marks which are less than what would be allotted to them in handicaps outside Aintree, which doesn't seem entirely fair. The top weight in the original handicap, will be treated favourably by around 7lb, while the marks of those immediately below are also eased. In 2011 Synchronised won the National off a mark of 161, 6lb below his official rating while Neptune Collonges last year had a 2lb pull. Much has also been mentioned of the easing of the Grand National fences in recent years and that is another beneficial factor for the higher-class runners at the top of the weights. Whether the course should ever have become less demanding is an entirely different debate. I remember having a joyous day in the owners and trainers bar in 2011, celebrating the success of Ballabriggs only to be stopped in my tracks by my daughter shedding tears over the horses who had lost their lives. In my opinion, if there was a simple solution to making the Grand National acceptable to its critics without changing the race's character, it would have been discovered by now. In summation, with the weights for the race being too compressed, don't be put off by a horse carrying over 11st 1lb, he will be better treated than many will think. The Market Leaders Outright jolly for the race is On His Own. Previously trained by Howard Johnson, for the massively wealthy owner Graham Wylie, the horse was shipped over to Willie Mullins when Johnson lost his licence for breaching an array of racing's welfare and drugs rules. In the 2012 contest Wylie auctioned this year's 2nd favourite Prince De Beauchene for Grand National ownership in aid of the Children's Heart Unit at the Freeman Hospital in Newcastle where the team had performed life-saving surgery on Wylie's young daughter. When Prince De Beauchene was subsequently forced to miss the race with injury, ownership was transferred to On His Own. It would be no surprise if the hospital benefitted enormously again this year from Wylie's generosity and should there be an auction for either On His Own or Prince De Beauchene, the successful bidder may find himself standing on the most famous racing podium of them all. Third favourite for the race as I write is Seabass. The 2012 Grand National third was heavily

Page | 28

gambled into co-favouritism and was the best performance yet from a horse ridden by a female jockey Katie Walsh. The market support for Walsh illustrated how much the public's perception of female pilots have advanced since the days when Ginger McCain declared the Grand National was no place for female riders. Third place was a great achievement for Seabass off a BHB rating of 149 , it will be harder this term off 154. My Shortlist Sunnyhillboy 25-1 Coral Ballabriggs 33-1 each-way Boylesports, 25-1 generally Teaforthree 20-1 William Hill, Betvictor, Boylesports Cappa Bleu 14-1 Generally Sunnyhillboy looked home and hosed under Richie McLernon in last year's race, only denied by the final neck-popping thrust of Neptune Collonges in the last strides of the 4m 4f marathon. No one can say for certain, and what might have been pays no bills, but the jury is out as to whether McLernon actually cost the horse the race, having put the whip down and pushing out with hands and heels. The winning distance was a cigarette paper. Sunnyhillboy suffered a bad tendon injury, but by all accounts is back to where he was pre last season's contest. A proven stayer, the horse warmed up for the main event by finishing third in the Irish National and romped home at the Cheltenham festival in the Kim Muir Challenge Cup. It was no surprise to see him add his name to the list of festival heroes having finished a strong running-on second in the Byrne Group Plate in 2010. Sunnyhillboy wouldn't be the biggest chaser in the land standing at just sixteen hands, nevertheless if you're seeking a horse who has been there and bought the t-shirt this fellow's your boy. Ballabriggs ran a fine preparatory race over 3 miles at Kelso, running strongly for much of the race. He was right in the thick of it come the final fence, but didn't have the turn of foot to go with Garleton and Always Right as they accelerated to the line. Ballbriggs' next outing will be in the big race itself and he reverts back to his winning weight of 2011 11 stone (9lb higher last year). The horse ran well to finish sixth in 2012 having got upset before the race with officials struggling to release the starting tape in front of millions. It won't be easy being a twelve-year old but Ballabriggs is both a marvellous fencer and a granite-hard campaigner and deserves a few of your shekels each-way. Teaforthree is a relentless galloper representing the up-and-coming Rebecca Curtis yard who struck gold with At Fishers Cross in the Cheltenham Festival. In 2011, Teaforthree set Curtis on her way, being her first Festival winner in the stamina-sapping 4m National Hunt Chase. Curtis has always seen the nine-year old as a potential National winner although you have to go back to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile to find a beast who has won both the National Hunt Chase and the National. Teaforthree wouldn't give Usain Bolt much of a race being more of the plodding variety, but if provided with softer conditions this slugger deserves financial support. Cappa Bleu seems to have been around since time immemorial but the eleven-year old gelding is very lightly raced having been off the track with various issues. The horse had shaped well when third in the Welsh National in December 2011 and finished with a wet sail when fourth in last year's National; having been both badly hampered and badly ridden by Paul Moloney, giving him far too much ground to make up. Want a horse that jumps soundly and stays longer than the mother-in-law? Cappa Bleu is your lad.

Page | 29

SCOTT'S HORSES TO FOLLOW

Scott is an avid racing watcher and he keeps a record of those horses he feels are of merit to back in the future in his 'Horses to Follow' list. Be sure to read his comments on each horse before backing them. Champagne James: Reports suggest this fellow is one of the best horses Ted Walsh has ever trained. Back next two runs. Champagne West: Ran green on his second course outing, in bumper ground that went too heavy. Potential star. Back next three runs. Clondaw Court: Lovely prospect , must be followed. Back next three runs. Clondaw Kaempfer: Very impressive winner of 2 half miles novice hurdle showing serious turn of foot. Back next three runs on decent ground. Lemony Bay: Showed signs of being green in Class 6 bumper but looked a useful prospect. Back next two runs Red Devil Boys: Impressive winner of Class 4 Novices Hurdle at Doncaster. Big, scopey horse, who may just have a big future. Back next two runs. Upsilon Bleu: Paid price for running too keen at Carlisle, sound jumper and talented horse. Back next run. West Wizard: Thrashed a decent bumper field and looks another Seven Barrows superstar. Back next run
THIS MONTH STRATEGY

Each month, Scott puts forward a unique strategy he feels is worth following in the near future. Back all John Gosden runners aged 4yo + in April Some trainers come out the traps fast in April while others such as Godolphin are slow to come to the boil as their horses acclimatise to the UK weather. John Gosden does well with the limited number of runners aged four-year old plus he sends out in April. The Clarehaven Stables trainer has recorded thirteen winners from forty-six runners in April over the past five years with a profit of 2807.00 to 100 level stakes. A win strike rate of 28% and from the forty-six runners, thirtysix horses have hit the frame.

Page | 30

CONTRIBUTE & EARN

THE SECRET BETTING CLUB NEEDS YOU!

If you are keen to showcase your betting experiences, tipping prowess or systems or strategies that you use to make money, then you may like to consider submitting your tips/articles via the SBC site and forum. We are always keen to hear from potential contributors and offer the following cash incentives...

80 for any tipster review or article published by SBC (c1500 words). Bespoke fees for any proven system or strategy of sufficient quality published by SBC. Bespoke fees with profit incentives for any quality tipster or system operator wishing to share their advice via the SBC Forum. All other high quality contributions also considered with bespoke fees.

Over the 6 years that SBC has been in operation, many of the BEST systems, strategies and reviews have been brought about by YOU sharing how YOU make money (e.g. the 4 Pronged Attack system and Dan James's Greyhound Expert). So if you feel you have something to contribute from your own betting experience, tipping review or system/strategy then drop us a mail via info@secretbettingclub.com Please note - Only those contributions submitted that reach SBC's high standards will be considered for use. Please do share your story, but before doing so, please contact us in the first instance to discuss your topic.

Page | 31

GLOSSARY Here you can find explanations for a number of key terms that are often referenced in our magazines. Proofed Results: This relates to a service who has proven or verified their results to be accurate via a independent and trusted source. ROI (Return On Investment: This is a key metric to equating just how much you would had to risk to make a profit. The calculation is a simple figure of profit divided by total amount staked AKA profit on turnover. 10% ROI means 10 profit for every 100 put at risk. ROI+: This takes the ROI figure above to a second level as it gauges over how many bets it was generated via. The calculation is a simple figure of ROI multiplied by the number of bets. This rewards tipsters who maintain a solid ROI over a large number of bets. ROC (Return on Capital): This gauges just how profitable a service is in relation to the betting bank. I.E. 43% would mean a profit of 430 on a 1000 bank.

DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NOTICE The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. If you are affiliated with any of the services mentioned and have any questions regarding the points we raise we welcome your correspondence. Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited. Members are free to print this document for their own use, but may not share its content with others without our express permission. Any person found to have made the contents of this publication or the entire publication itself available to other people in person or via the internet without express permission may be subject to legal action. Any member found to have breached these terms of membership will have their subscription terminated with immediate effect and access removed from all Secret Betting Club services.

Page | 32