Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

Kinh nghim hc xc sut thng k kiu nc ti chn mi nhy

Sau khi kt thc thi gian hc tn ch trng, mnh mi bt tay vo n xc sut thng k trong
khi u c trng rng. Thi gian n tp cho n hm thi l 8 ngy. Trong 8 ngy ny, mnh
rt ra c 1 s kinh nghim nho nh ca bn thn. Hy vng kinh nghim ny phn no c th
gip cc bn n tp tt hiu qu trong thi gian ngn.

Thng k
Gia vic chn thng k hay xc sut mnh n u tin, mnh chn thng k v phn thng k ch
cn nh c cc cng thc l xong. nh c cc cng thc, mnh ngi v bng theo
mu sau ln t A4 nm ngang: (mnh bt tay n chng 7 v 8 ri mi ng chng 6 xem c j
hot)
i vi chng 7:
Xc nh khong
ca

^2
f
1-2

f1-f2
1^2/2^2

Trong khi

Thng k

Bit
Cha bit
Bit
Cha bit
Bit p
Bit 1 v 2
Cha bit 1 v
2 n c gi
thuyt
1^2=2^2
Cha bit 1 v
2 ko c gi
thuyt
1^2=2^2
p1-p2
S1 va S2

Khong tin cy
i xng (ktc x)
X+- / . U/2

(Cc bn ly gio trnh v 1 t A4 ri t hon thin tip nh)

Mo:
Sau y l cch nh mo nhng cng thc trn:

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Ghi ch
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Sp=

k=
C=

Sf=

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

nh mo, mnh t ra cc cu hi cho tng cng thc 1 ri link cc cng thc thng k,
khong tin cy i xng vi nhau vi mc ch l c bi c th suy lun ra thng k vi
khong tin cy. Cc bn t cng nhiu cu hi v v tr cng nh ngha cc k hiu trong cng
thc th cng d nh. Sau y l 1 s cu hi mnh t ra(mi ngi c th t thm cc cu
khc)1:
(1) V sao li l / ?
Sao dng u ?
Sao khi chuyn sang khong tin cy 1 pha li l u m ko phi l (/2)? (trong bng mnh ko
lp thm khong 1 pha v ri mt! Ty ai thch lp th lp n mnh ngh mi ngi c th suy
lun c)
V sao thng k l / nhng chuyn sang ktc li l / ?
(2) Cc cu hi tng t (1) n v sao li l s dng t(n-1) m ko phi u, sao li l (n-1) m ko
phi l n
(3) V sao li dng S* khi m bit ?
V sao khi chuyn t thng k sang ktc th n ko nghch o m vn gi nguyn n.S*^2?
V sao li l n ?
V sao li chia cho X2(n)/2 ri mi X2(n)(1-/2)?
Sao s bc t do li l n m ko phi (n-1)
(4) Cc cu hi tng t (3)
(5) V sao li l f.(1-f)/n ?
V sao khi chuyn sang t thng k l f. (1 f)/n sang ktc li thnh
V sao quy lut li l u
(6) V sao li l 12 /1 +22 /2?
So snh vi cc cng thc (1) th thy s tng t ko?
1

(7) Sao li dng Sp.

p. (1 p)/n

1
2 ?

khi chuyn t thng k sang ktc sao li nghch o ci ny? C

tng t so vi (2 ) ko?
Sao li t(n1+n2-2) m ko phi U? Sao li (n1+n2-2)? So vi (2) c j tng t ko? (Mu s vi
t s ca thng k)
(8) S1^2/n1 v S2^2/n2 l ci g? Sao li (n-1) vi (n-2)? C phi da vo (7) ?
So vi (6) th khc nhau v phn thng k ko? So vi (2) th khc nhau v phn ktc ko?
(9) Nhn dng c ging (6) ko? em so sng vi (5) th thy c j ging ko?
1

Cc cu tr li c th ngu hng v ty tng ngi:P i khi c th rt ng nghnh :P Quan trng l mi ngi

nh c cu tr li c th nh c cu hi v suy lun cho d hn. Chng 7 ko qu quan trng phn thng
k n m chng 8 li rt quan trng. Mnh t phn thng k chng 7 mi ngi lm tin hc rt nhanh
chng 8.

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

(10) Sao ch c mi ci ny dng quy lut Fisher? V sao ktc x li la f(1-/2) u ri mi
f(/2)?
Nu l f(n1-1, n2-1) th sao li l S2/S1 m ko phi S1/S2?

Lu :
Mt s lu nho nh gip ca chng xc sut gip cc bn tr li c 1 s cu (1 s cu
cu tr li ca t rt ba :P V n gin l t cu hi mo mnh nh c v tr cc k t
trong cng thc thi)
(a) i vi 1 mu kch thc n v E(Xi)=, V(Xi)=^2 th E(X_ngang)= v
V(X_ngang)=^2/n l s xut hin ca /
(b) Tng t cho tn s f th E(f)=p, V(f)=p(1-p)/n s xut hin ca p(1-p)/n trong cc
cng thc f
2 mu kch thc n1, n2 c cc bin ngu nhin trung bnh X1~N(1,
(X1-X2) ~N(1- 2,

12
1

22
2

12
1

), X2~N(2,22 )

s xut hin (6)

Tng t cho Sf
(c) Cch tnh S*^2 cn c v n (CT tng qut), cch tnh S^2 cn c (n-1) (CT tng qut)

p dng
p dng khi lm bi sau khi nh c cch suy lun ra cng thc:
B1: Xc nh hi cn c lng ktc ca ci no? Khong tin cy i xng hay 1 pha?
B2: bit ci g? (ct 2 bng)
Suy ra dng cng thc no ?
Nh vy l xong chng 7. Cc bn nn i in ra ri t tr li cc cu hi ny theo cc bn.
Sang ti chng 8:
Mnh lp bng theo mu sau:
Kim
Cp gi
Tiu
Min bc Ga tr
Xc sut Kch
P-Value
nh ca thuyt
chun
b
quan st
mc sai
thc
thng k
kim nh
lm loi
mu ti
2
thiu
Sau khi n chng 7 v c c cc cu hi mo th chng 8 cc bn cng lm tng t v
tm ra cc cu hi mo nhm nh c v tr cc k hiu trong cng thc.
Vic p dng vo bi ton c th cng ko khc nhau nhiu cho lm.
Chng cui cng thng k-Chng 6:
Chng ny c ci phn suy din thng k c cng thc. Cc bn thy, chng 7 th t
1 mu c th (thng cho bng s liu) th ngi hi xc nh cc khong ca tng th. N
chng 6 th ngc li, t tng th rt ra mu c th. Cc bn i chiu cng thc tng
ng ca chng 6 v 7 xem c j ging v khc nhau ko nh ;)
Cn 1 s phn bi tp v c lng im, c lng ko chch ;) Cc bn xem v d trong
gio trnh vs gii sbt bit thm.

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

Mnh mt 1 ngy hon thnh thng k. Nhn chung nh c 2 ci bng v c qua
c my ci v d c lng im vs ko chch trong gio trnh.

Xc sut
Ngy tip theo mnh n xc sut. Theo nh gi ca mnh th chng 1 v 3 s l chng kh
nht. Chng 2 v 4 s l chng cng thc.
u tin mnh hc chng 1. Chng 1 kh nht l ci cng thc y v Bayer. u tin
mnh c gio trnh v tp trung vo cng thc Bernouli, y , Bayer. Mnh dnh khong 3
h ngi c ci cng thc y vs Bayer trong gio trnh km v d trong . Hi ngm ngm
1 t th mnh li quyn sbt ra vi gii sbt c. Va c va c gii lun. Nhn chung giai
on c ln u ny ch hiu mang mng l n nh th ch cng ch hiu c su. Ch nhn
cch lm v xem tng cng thc xem n c ng ko? Ti sao li xut hin cc s trong
cng thc? Kiu nh nh mo .
Tp trung c v nh t bi 1.58 ti 1.96 trong sbt. My bi * th b ko c. Mnh c ri ghi ra
giy th t lm v cng thc cc bi nh mo. Dnh 1 ngy v mnh kt thc c chng
phn ny chng 1. Ti khong 21h th mnh li cng thc thng k ra ngi c li v t li cc
cu hi mo hiu k hn. Cng cha lm nhiu bi tp cho thng k.
Ngy tip theo, mnh hc li (n li) nhng g c c ngy hm qua. N vn cha hiu c
cho lm v mnh hi chm hiu :> N cng tt hn hm qua =)) V hiu c cht cht nn thi
gian n cng rt ngn li. Thi gian cn li mnh c gii tip t bi 1.1 ti 1.57. nh du
nhng bi cm gic thy kh mai lm li.
Ngy tip theo n chng 3. Chng ny mnh va c gio trnh vi sbt-gii sbt.c gio
trnh u tin v lm v d, nh du nhng bi cm gic kh nh. T lm li. Sau c sbt
ln gii lun. nh du bi cm gic kh hoc c mo j . Cui ngy li n thng k cht
cht.
Ngy th 5 mnh n li chng 1. c li nhng bi nh du v ngh c nh c hng gii
ko? Sau c gii tip ri tm tt lailj cch gii. Cn thi gian n tip chng 3.
Ngy th 6 Chng 2 v 4. y l 2 chng cng thc nn mnh cn rt t thi gian c
cng thc :> cc bn th xem ;) Chng 2 sbt c gii nn mnh nh xong CT th c gii
lun. nh du nhng bi m cm gic hng lm ko ra.
Ri , thi gian cn li mnh view qua nhng th nh du, bng thng k t lm, nhng g
cn cha c trong gio trnh. H c cht t trong u mnh bt u lm . Cc bn tm
trong note c khong chc ci . C vai no c gii th mnh cng c lun :> Ri n thm
1 s bi trong ti liu khc. Ch nh trc lc thi lm my bi ny cn thn lm cho n quen tay
v trnh by.

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

1. s bng hoa n trong mi chu l 1 BNN c pp Poisson vi s bng hoa n trung bnh l 2.

ngi ta ch em bn nhng chu hoa khi c t nht 3 bng n. chn ngu nhin 1 chu hoa
dc em bn, kh nng chu hoa ny c 4 bng n l bao nhu?
Hng dn:
Gi X l s bng hoa n trong mi chu: X ~ P(lamda= 2).
A = " Chu hoa c em bn "
P(A) =1 - P(X<3) = 1-[P(X =0) +P(X=1)+ P(X = 2)]= ...
B = " Chu hoa c 4 bng n".
Yu cu bi ton cn tnh: P(B/A) = P(A.B)/P(A) = P(B)/P(A)
P(B) = P(X= 4).
2. mt hp c 3 bi +7 bi trng. ly ngu nhin ra 1 vin bi ri li b 1 vin bi khc mu vo
hp, ri ly ngu nhin ra 1 vin. tnh xc sut
a, ln th 2 ly c bi trng.
b, c 2 ln ly c bi .
Gii:
Gi H1= " Vin bi ly ra ln u mu "
H2= " Vin bi ly ra ln u mu trng"
A =" Vin bi ly ra ln th 2 l trng"
P(A) = P(H1).p(A/H1)+P(H2).P(A/H2)
P(H1) = 3/10; P(H2) = 7/10
P(A/H1) = 8/10 (v vin ly ra ln u th vin b vo mu trng)
P(A/H2) = 6/10(v vin ly ra ln u mu trng th vin b vo mu )
=> P(A) = 0,3.0,8+ 0,7.0,6 =0,66.
b)Gi B = " vin ly ra ln 2 mu "
H1.B = " c 2 ln ly c mu "
P(H1.B) = P(H1).P(B/H1)
P(H1) = 3/10; P(B/H1) = 2/10
=>P(H1.B) = 0,3.0,2 = 0,06.
3. t l loi A l 80%. hng c xp thnh kin, mi kin c 15 sp, khch hng kim tra sp
bng cch chn 3 sp trong 1 kin, nu c 3 u l loi A th mua kin . Gi s c 100
kin hng.
a, tnh xs c 50 kin c mua.
b, tnh xs c t nht 60 kin c mua.
Gii:
Hng gii bi ny: trc tin ta phi tnh xc sut mt kin hng c mua.
Xt trong mi kin hng(15 sn phm) bi ton tha m lc Bernoulli vi n = 15, p =
0,8.
Gi Hi =" s sn phm loi A c trong mi kin hng", i =0,1,2,...,15.
P(Hi) = C_15^i.0,8^i.0,2^(15-i), i = 0,1,2,...,15
Gi B = " kin hng c mua".
P(B) = P(H0).P(B/H0) +P(H1).P(B/H1)+...+P(H15).P(B/H15)
P(B/Hi) = 0 vi i = 0,1,2.
P(B/Hi) = C_i^3/C_15^3,i = 3,4,...,15.
Em thay vo tnh c xc sut P(B) = p.

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

Gi X l s kin hng c mua trong n kin hng
X ~ B(n, P)
a) P(X = 50) = ...
b) P(X>=60) = ...
Ghi ch: C_n^k: hiu l t hp chp k ca n.
4. T l h ngho ca mt tnh l 5%
1Nguoi ta iu tra ngu nhin 400 h gia nh ca tnh thy c 17 h ngho .Hi t l h
ngho gim i hay cha?Vi mc ngha 5%
2Vi xac suat 0.95 nu mun t l h ngho trong mu ly ra iu tra sai lch so vi t l h
ngho ca tnh khng qu 0.005 th cn iu tra mu c kch thc bao nhiu?
Thy ging cho e 2 vi
Answer: P la ty le ho ngheo cua tinh p =0,05
f la ty le ho ngheo cua mau kich thuoc n.
P(|f - P|<0,05) = 0,95 => su dung cong thuc tinh xac suat ve f hoac cong thuc suy dien
bang khoang tin cay doi xung tim duoc n,
5. 1) trng lng ca 1 sn phm l bin ngu nhin phn phi chun vi trung bnh l 1kg v
phn tn l 0,1kg. Nu cn th ngu nhin 4 sn phm
a) tm xc sut trng lng trung bnh ca chng nh hn 1,1 kg
b) trong 4 sn phm th kh nng nhiu nht c bao nhiu sn phm trn 1,05kg
2)t l ph phm ca 1 l hng l 4%. kim tra ngu nhin 400 sn phm trong l hng .
tnh xc sut c nhiu nht 15 ph phm
a. Answer: 1) X~N(nuy =1; si^2 = 0,1^2) => X_ngang ~ N(nuy =1; si^2 =0,1^2/4)
a)P(X_ngang<1,1)
b) P(X >1,05) = p ; Y s sn phm c trng lng ln hn 1,05 trong s 4 sn phm => Y
~ B(n= 4; p). S sn phm c kh nng nhiu nht l modY (s dng cng thc tm mod
trong pp B(n,p)
2) X l s pp trong 400 sn phm f = X/400
P( X<=15) = P(f<=15/400). S dng cng thc suy din v f ( hoc cng thc pp chun
ca f ) tnh.
6.
1 loi sn phm hnh ch nht, cc kch thc di, rng l 2 bin ngu nhin c phn phi
chun v c lp vi nhau. chiu di c trung bnh l 10cm, chiu rng vi trung bnh l
6cm. bit 6,68% s chi tit c chiu di ln hn 10,3cm v 15,87% s chi tit c chiu rng
nh hn 5,8cm. cc chi tit c coi l chun nu cc kch thc rng, di sai khc so vi
kch thc trung bnh khng qu 0,3cm.
a) tm t l cc chi tit khng t tiu chun
b) 1 chi tit khng t tiu chun, tnh xc sut chi tit c chiu di vn m bo tiu
chun
Answer: X la chieu dai X~ N(nuy = 10, si1^2), Y chieu rong Y ~ N(nuy =6, si2^2)
P(X>10,3) = 0,668 => si1; P(Y<5,8) = 0.158 => si2
a)Dung cong thuc tinh xac suat cua su sai lech giua bien ngau nhien va gia tri trung binh
cua phan phoi chuan (bai nay cho vd tren lop roi hoac cung giong bai tap may bay tha bom
trong sach bai tap)
b) Su dung xs co dieu kien

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50

Cha kha t im cao ti FTU

7. B thi c 15 cu: 10 cu chng 1 v 5 cu chng 2. xc sut tr li ng cu
chng 1 la 0.95, ng cu chng 2 l 0.9. Mi ln hc sinh phi bc thm 2 cu. Hc
sinh ch tr li ng 1 cu. Tnh xc sut cu ng thuc chng 1?
Gii:
Gi H1 l bin c bc c 2 cu chng I
H2 l bin c bc c 2 cu chng II
H3 l bin c bc c 1 cu chng I v 1 cu chng II
C- tr li 1 cu ng, 1 cu sai
P( C ) = P(H1).P(C/H1) + P(H2).P(C/H2) + P(H3).P(C/H3)
P(C/H1) = C_2^1.0,95.0,05; P(H2) = C_2^1.0,9.0,1
P(C/H3) = 0,95.0,1 + 0,9.0,05
P(H1)=10C2/15C2. P(H2)=5C2/15C2, P(H3)=10C1.5C1/15C2
->P(C)= 523/4200
D = " cu tr li ng l ca chng 1"
cn tnh P(D/C) ( C l bin c c 1 cu tr li ng)
P(D/C) = P(D.C)/P( C )
D.C l hoc tr li 1 cu ng chng 1, 1 cu sai chng 1 hoc 1 cu ng chng 1 , 1
cu sai chng 2
xs 1 cu ng chng 1, 1 cu sai chng 1 = 2C1. 10/15.9/14. 0,95.0,05
xs 1 cu ng chng 1 , 1 cu sai chng 2= 2C1.10/15.0,95.5/14.0,1 (=10C1.0,95. 5C1.
0,1 /15C2)
P(D.C)=361/4200
-->P(D/C)= 361/523

-Chc cc bn n thi tt-

4:35a.m.17/06/2012 - K50