Effects of Unmet Need on

College-Qualified High School

Graduates

Dr. Brian Fitzgerald, Staff Director

Advisory Committee
on Student Financial Assistance
March 7, 2002
Brownsville, TX
 Median Annual Household Income, by Educational
Attainment of Householder, 1997
$95,309
$84,100

$71,086
$66,474
$62,188

$48,604
$41,658
$34,373

$20,724
$16,154

< than 9th High School Associate Bachelor's Doctorate

grade Graduate Degree Degree or Degree
More

Source: Access Denied, 2001 2

 College Participation Rates for Unmarried 18- to 24-Year-Old High
School Graduates, 1970 to 1997,
by Family Income Quartile.
90 Above
$74,584

80
$47,406 to
Percent Participation

$74,583
70
$25,064 to
60
$47,405

Below
50 $25,063

40

30
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997

Source: Access Denied, 2001 3

 AVERAGE COST OF ATTENDANCE AT A FOUR-YEAR PUBLIC COLLEGE
AS A SHARE OF FAMILY INCOME

70%

60%

50% Low Income

40%

30%

20% Middle Income

10% High Income

0%
1972-73 1975-76 1978-79 1981-82 1984-85 1987-88 1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00*

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 TOTAL EXPENSES REMAINING AFTER THE PELL GRANT
MAXIMUM AWARD AT A FOUR-YEAR PUBLIC COLLEGE

(CONSTANT DOLLARS) $8,286

$7,415
Pell Grant Maximum
Expenses Remaining
Average Cost of Attendance $6,231
$5,732
$5,044 $4,944 $5,034
$4,872
$4,238*

$3,392* $3,240* $3,347 $3,252

$2,866* $2,884
$2,522* $2,472* $2,543

1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01

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 AVERAGE ANNUAL UNMET NEED
BY FAMILY INCOME AND TYPE OF COLLEGE

$6,200

Low-Income
Middle Income $4,700
High Income
$3,800

$3,200
$3,000

$2,250

$1,650

$400
$100

Public Two-Year College Public Four-Year College Private Four-Year College

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Source: Access Denied, 2001 7
 ACCESS PIPELINE FOR ALL HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Low Unmet Need

High Unmet Need 99%
92% 94% 92% 93%
87%

69% 70%
64%
59%
53%

20%

Expect in 8th Concerned about Plan to Attend Plan to Attend Enroll Enroll Within
Grade to Finish Finances Postsecondary Immediately Immediately Two Years
College Education After High After High
School School

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 ACCESS PIPELINE COLLEGE-QUALIFIED HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
THE PRE-ENROLLMENT EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED

95%
88%

79%

70% 69%
63%
Low Unmet Need
High Unmet Need

20% 20% 20%

16%

8%
4%

Expect in 8th Grade Parents Very Students Very Plan in 12th Grade Plan in 12th Grade Plan Not to Attend
to Finish College Concerned About Concerned About to Attend a Four- to Attend a Two- Immediately or Not
Costs and Aid Costs and Aid Year College Year College Sure
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 ACCESS PIPELINE FOR COLLEGE-QUALIFIED
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED ON ENROLLMENT WITHIN TW0 YEARS
83%

Low Unmet Need

52%
High Unmet Need

21% 22%

12%
4% 4%
1%

Enroll in a Four-Year Enroll in aTwo-Year Enroll in "Other" Less Not Enroll in Any
College College ThanFour-Year College College

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 ACCESS PIPELINE FOR COLLEGE-QUALIFIED
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

OVERALL EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED THROUGH COMPLETION

95%
91%
88% Low Unmet Need
83%
High Unmet Need
70%
63% 62%
52%
48%

12%

Expect in 8th Plan in 12th Grade Take Entrance Enroll in a Four- Complete a
Grade to Finish to Attend a Four- Exam and Apply Year College Bachelor's Degree
College Year College

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 COHORT IMPACT SIMULATION
EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED ON COLLEGE-QUALIFIED LOW-INCOME HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Pipeline in Year 2000 (415,000 College-Qualified)

Pipeline in Year 2010 (460,000 College-Qualified) 220,000

199,000
170,000 175,000
154,000 158,000
138,000
124,000
100,000
91,000

Not Expect in 8th Not Plan in 12th Not Take Entrance Fail to Enroll in a Fail to Enroll in
Grade to Finish Grade to Attend a Exam and Apply Four-Year College Any College
College Four-Year College

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 CUMULATIVE IMPACT OVER TIME OF UNMET NEED
2.3
ON THE ENROLLMENT OF COLLEGE-QUALIFIED
2.1
(in millions)
1.9

1.6
Did Not Attend a Four-Year College Within
Two Years of High School Graduation 1.4

Did Not Attend Any College Within Two 1.2

Years of High School Graduation 1.1
1.0 1.0
0.9
0.8 0.8
0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance
http://www.ed.gov/ACSFA/

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