( 6)

t
Vt t
Pt
( )
(The Buy Rule)

Pt<Vt

()(The Sell Rule)

Pt>Vt

()
(The Dont Trade Rule)
Pt=Vt

(Pt)

(Vt)

( 7)

Vt t Pt t
Dt t ks
(Dividend Discount Model,DDM)
Pt
Pt<Vt

Dt
Vt=

Pt=Vt

(1+Ks)
Pt>Vt

Pt

82 6 P.161

1. 2.
5.
3. ()4.

( )
( 8)
1.
2.(Capital gain)
3.
4.
()

()
( 9)
1.


2.

3.

1.

M1A,M1B,M2
2.

1. 2. 3.
4. 5.

3.

1.
( )( )
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

()
Paul Samuelson

( 10)

1.K
(Bull Market)(Bear Market)

2. ()

3.
RSIKDD-MACDDMIADRADLOBV

K
(EX: RSIKDMACD)

()

() ()

200
30

1./
()
2. /

3.

Stanley Kroll
( 11)

( )()

()

()

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.