Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 1mar 14 2009

    Uploaded by

    exblog
    12 views1 page
    China's export growth has historically shown a strong correlation with GDP growth in the US and EU, with a 1 percentage point decline in US-EU GDP growth leading to a 6-8 percentage point drop in China's export growth. A chart shows China's export volume growth and US-EU real GDP growth from 1999 to 2007, demonstrating that periods of lower US-EU GDP growth were accompanied by lower Chinese export growth.

    Original Description:

    Original Title

    1Mar_14_2009

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    China's export growth has historically shown a strong correlation with GDP growth in the US and EU, with a 1 percentage point decline in US-EU GDP growth leading to a 6-8 percentage point drop in China's export growth. A chart shows China's export volume growth and US-EU real GDP growth from 1999 to 2007, demonstrating that periods of lower US-EU GDP growth were accompanied by lower Chinese export growth.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    12 views1 page

    1mar 14 2009

    Uploaded by

    exblog
    China's export growth has historically shown a strong correlation with GDP growth in the US and EU, with a 1 percentage point decline in US-EU GDP growth leading to a 6-8 percentage point drop in China's export growth. A chart shows China's export volume growth and US-EU real GDP growth from 1999 to 2007, demonstrating that periods of lower US-EU GDP growth were accompanied by lower Chinese export growth.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 1

    Deutsche Bank AG

    Strong correlation between Chinese exports and US-EU


    GDP
     Historically, a 1ppt deceleration in US-EU GDP growth leads to 6-8ppt
    deceleration in China’s export growth.

    China export volume growth vs US-EU real GDP growth, yoy%

    45% China exp (lhs) US-EU GDP (rhs) 5%


    40%
    35% 4%
    30%
    3%
    25%
    20%
    2%
    15%
    10% 1%
    5%
    0% 0%
    Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07

    Sources: CEIC and staff calculation

    Jun Ma · (852) 2203 8308, jun.ma@db.com March 2009 · page 1

    You might also like