A B

C
D
E
F
M
N O
1 Forecasting with Trend and Seasonality

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Year
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000

Data
Month
4 Apr
5 May
6 Jun
7 Jul
8 Aug
9 Sep
10 Oct
11 Nov
12 Dec
1 Jan
2 Feb
3 Mar
4 Apr
5 May
6 Jun
7 Jul
8 Aug
9 Sep
10 Oct
11 Nov
12 Dec
1 Jan
2 Feb
3 Mar
4 Apr
5 May
6 Jun
7 Jul
8 Aug
9 Sep
10 Oct
11 Nov
12 Dec

Y
1306
1282
1297
1315
1310
1323
1335
1322
1317
1325
1327
1328
1322
1320
1339
1343
1353
1358
1399
1379
1369
1353
1374
1363
1365
1354
1358
1376
1376
1393
1425
1406
1401

Deseasonalized
t
Year
1315.33
34 2001
1300.87
35 2001
1308.15
36 2001
1319.1
37 2001
1307.39
38 2001
1318.83
39 2001
1305.09
40 2001
1310.79
41 2001
1315.81
42 2001
1330.1
43 2001
1323.51
44 2001
1332.14
45 2001
1331.44
1339.43
1500
1350.51
1347.18
1350.31
1353.72
1450
1367.66
1367.31
1367.77
1358.21
1400
1370.38
1367.25
1374.75
1373.93
1350
1369.68
1380.29
1373.26
1388.61
1300
1393.08
1394.08
1399.74

Forecasts
Month
1
Jan
2
Feb
3
Mar
4
Apr
5 May
6
Jun
7
Jul
8
Aug
9
Sep
10 Oct
11 Nov
12 Dec

Y
1397.73
1410.02
1405.13
1402.69
1395.37
1407
1417.88
1428.34
1433.21
1464.71
1447.36
1439.59

W
Y
Average Pay

Seasonal Indices
Month Index
Jan
99.62
Feb 100.26
Mar 99.69
Apr
99.29
May 98.55
Jun
99.15
Jul
99.69
Aug 100.20
Sep 100.32
Oct 102.29
Nov 100.86
Dec 100.09

AA

AB

AC

AD

AE

Seasonal Index
103

102
101
100
99

98
97
96
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Data
Forecast

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

1250
0

10

15

20

25
t

30

35

40

45

50

A B
C
D
E
L
M N
O
1 Forecasting with Trend and Seasonality
Data
t Year
1 1998
2 1998
3 1998
4 1998
5 1999
6 1999
7 1999
8 1999
9 2000
10 2000
11 2000
12 2000
13 2001
14 2001
15 2001
16 2001

Q
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
170
148
141
150
161
137
132
158
157
145
128
134
160
139
130
144

Forecasts
Deseasonalized
t
Year
154.351
17
2002
151.876
18
2002
154.451
19
2002
148.335
20
2002
146.179
21
2003
140.588
22
2003
144.593
23
2003
156.246
24
2003
142.548
25
2004
148.797
26
2004
140.211
27
2004
132.513
28
2004
145.271
142.64
180
142.402
142.402

Q
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
152.022
133.689
124.478
137.037
148.333
130.425
121.42
133.649
144.644
127.161
118.362
130.262

T
V
Northern Natural Gas

Seasonal Indices
Q
Index
1
110.14
2
97.45
3
91.29
4
101.12
400

AA

Seasonal Index
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00

0.00
1

Data
Forecast

160
140

120
100

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

80
60
40

20
0

10

15

20
t

25

30

35