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Lesson Planning Sheet Title: Theoretical Probability Learning Objectives: By the end of the lesson: All students should be able to write the theoretical probability of a single event as a simplified fraction. Most students should be able to write a theoretical probability of combined events as a simplified fraction. Some students should be able to calculate a theoretical probability from a two-way table. Keywords: Theoretical probability, fraction, probability, event, likelihood Learning Activities Starter/Introduction Students begin to consider systematic approaches involving multiple events. Encourage students to consider the most unfortunate outcomes for picking out the balls, ie., all the white, then blue, green and one red. The class could work in pairs to discuss alternative approaches. Development Review the notation associated to probability, P(Event).To introduce writing a probability as a fraction discuss with the class the number of desired and total possible outcomes. Once the fraction is ascertained place it along a probability scale to provide an illustrative representation of it as a measure of likelihood. For a combination of events, such as, a P(consonants) break it down to 2P(A) + P(E) + P(I). Work through the remaining problems on the second slide. The questions on the third slide could be attempted independently. Plenary The plenary is intended to extend the learning of the lesson by challenging the class to determine a series of events given fixed probabilities. To differentiate for the less able students could select the events from a group provided. Alternatively, for the most able additional probabilities could be provided to restrict the number of events possible. Have answers presented on mini-whiteboards Differentiation More able: Students could derive a series of events given probabilities as in the plenary. Less Able Students may need to stick with single events and link to associating the fraction with the keyword, i.e., Probability(1 on a 6 sided dice) = = Unlikely. Resources: Mini-whiteboards