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Capnhatnganhnganhang-27 01 2011 PDF
Capnhatnganhnganhang-27 01 2011 PDF
Cp nht ngnh
26 Thng 1 2011
Tng vn ha (t ng)
157,877
7,518
% vn ha th trng
21.1
9.9
1.8
ROA (%)
1.5
ROE (%)
18.0
ACB
EIB
VCB
1.759
938
1.056
30%
30%
2.9%
EPS (VND)
2.520
1.642
2.303
-20%
28%
-29%
P/E (x)
9,6
9,2
14,9
P/B (x)
1,9
1,1
3,2
ROE (%)
22%
13%
23%
ROA (%)
1,2%
1,8%
1,3%
Din bin gi
3M
6M
12M
Gi tr tuyt i %
13%
3%
-10%
Gi tr tng i %
3%
3%
-11%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
VNINDEX
www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO>
.VNBANK
Jan-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Feb-10
-30%
Chng ti thch cc c phiu ACB, STB v EIB v (i) y l nhng ngn hng tin
phong trong cc dch v ngn hng bn l ti Vit Nam vi thng hiu c
khng nh, (ii) giai on ti c cu s l c hi tt cho cc ngn hng ln c tim
lc ti chnh mnh mua c nhng ti sn gi r v m rng th phn trong tng
lai, (iii) cc ch s nh gi hp dn v c kh nng nng cao li nhun. Chng ti
cng nhn thy VCB v CTG c nhiu kh nng tng gi v y l hai ngn hng
hng u Vit Nam vi t l s hu dnh cho nh u t nc ngoi vn cn kh
ln.
26 Thng 1 2011
2009
3Q2010
75%
80%
60%
57%
59%
57%
54%
42%
40%
20%
5%
47%
45%
38%
30%
26%
23%
7%
0%
0%
VCB
CTG
EIB
ACB
-3%
STB
Average
-20%
-32%
-40%
Ngun: VCSC tng hp
2008
2009
3Q2010
50%
40%
60%
30%
40%
20%
10%
0%
20%
0%
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26 Thng 1 2011
30%
ROA
3.0%
2009 ROE
2008 ROA
2009 ROA
25%
2.0%
20%
15%
1.0%
10%
5%
0%
Average
STB
ACB
EIB
CTG
VCB
Average
STB
ACB
EIB
CTG
VCB
0.0%
Tim nng pht trin cc dch v ngn hng bn l v cc dch v ti chnh cho cc doanh
nghip nh v va (SMEs) l li th gip h thng ngn hng Vit Nam nng cao cc t s hiu
qu hot ng
Nm 2010, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) ca Vit Nam t trn 100 t USD vi GDP bnh qun u
ngi t gn 1.200USD/ngi, tng gp i trong vng 5 nm qua. Dn s tr cng vi thu nhp
bnh qun u ngi tng s ko theo nhu cu s dng cc dch v ngn hng bn l gia tng. c
im dn s l yu t h tr tch cc cho tc tng trng ca cc dch v thanh ton, th tn dng
v cc dch v ti chnh c nhn.
Hnh 4: Vit Nam t tc tng trng GDP cao trong 10 nm qua
GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam tng
gp i trong 5 nm qua
USD
1,400
t USD
1,200
120
1,000
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
GDP
Tng trng GDP
% yoy
10
8
6
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Ngoi ra, khu vc kinh t t nhn cng ng vai tr quan trng trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t Vit
Nam trong 10 nm qua vi tc tng trng bnh qun t 24%. Trong nm 2008, vn u t t
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26 Thng 1 2011
Cp
p nht ngnh
ng
ngn hng
khu vc t
nhn chim
chi
gn 41% tng mc u t vo nn
n kinh t, cao h
hn nhiu so vi mc 29% t
khu vc nh nc.
c. Ring nm 2009 v 2010, do khu vc kinh t nh n
nc nhn c nhiu s h
tr hn t
chnh ph di nhng tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu nn t l ng
gp vo tng
ng vn u t
t c nc ca khu vc kinh t t nhn gim cn
n 35% trong nm 2009 v 38%
trong nm 2010. S
S doanh nghip nh v va ngy cng tng s kch thch nhu cu vay vn phc
v u t pht trin
n, ti tr thng mi v cc dch v thanh ton quc
c t
t.
Hnh 5: Tc
c tng trng
tr
nhanh chng ca khu vc kinh t t nhn
Khu vc kinh t t
nhn
t tc tng trng
bnh qun 24% trong 10 n
nm qua
C cu
u tng vn u t
t theo khu vc
Nh nc
18 18 17 16 14 15 16 16
80%
350,000
30 26 26
250,000
23 23 25 31 38
38 38 41
41
39 36
59 60 57 53
48 47 46 43
200,000
150,000
40%
100,000
38
29 35
50,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2004
0%
2003
20%
300,000
2002
60%
t VND
Nc ngoi
2001
100%
T nhn
Cc ch s nh gi hp dn
Do lo ngi
i vic pht hnh
h
t ca cc ngn hng s gy ra tnh trng
ng pha lo
long gi, nh u t kh e
d i vi c
phiu ngn hng khi hu
u ht cc c phiu ngn hang u gim mnh so vi mc gim
chung ca th trng
ng. Trong nm 2010, gi c phiu ngnh ngn hng gim 18% trong khi VNIndex
ch gim 2%. Tuy nhin,
nhin ngnh c du hiu phc hi t thng 12/2010
2010 vi mc tng trng 17%
so vi
i thng 11/2010.
11/2010
Hnh 6: Gi c
phiu ngnh
ng
ngn hng gim mnh hn th trng
ng trong nm 2010 v
v ch mi hi phc
trong thng 12/2010
20%
VNINDEX
.VNBANK
10%
0%
-10%
10%
-20%
20%
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
-30%
30%
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26 Thng 1 2011
PB
3.0
14.0
2.5
PE -VNindex
10.0
2.0
PE - ACB
1.5
PE - STB
12-10
11-10
11-10
10-10
09-10
09-10
08-10
07-10
PB-STB
04-10
12-10
11-10
10-10
09-10
08-10
07-10
06-10
05-10
04-10
0.0
03-10
02-10
0.5
01-10
2.0
07-10
4.0
PB-EIB
1.0
06-10
6.0
05-10
8.0
PB- VNIndex
05-10
12.0
So vi cc ngn hng khc trong khu vc, ngnh ngn hng Vit Nam c ROE 18% v ROA 1,5%,
cao hn so vi ROE 15,7% v ROA 1,3% ca cc ngn hng trong khu vc.
Hnh 8: Quy m kh nh so vi cc ngn hng khc trong khu vc nhng cc ngn hng Vit Nam c cc
t s hiu qu hot ng tt hn
Vn ha
(triu USD)
Tng ti
sn (triu
USD)
P/E
(x)
P/B
(x)
ROE LF
(%)
ROA LF
(%)
Trung Quc
7.572
83.981
10,62
1,91
19,71
1,05
Thi Lan
4.765
31.726
18,00
1,79
13,44
1,24
Malaysia
4.164
26.634
12,43
1,81
16,08
1,16
Indonesia
4.256
12.351
22,06
2,87
17,80
1,78
2.062
23.012
12,39
1,59
16,17
0,91
Philippines
1.358
7.603
12,35
1,60
13,45
1,73
Vit Nam
1.145
7.775
8,89
1,61
18,01
1,56
Pakistan
587
4.546
11,56
1,29
13,12
1,11
Sri Lanka
453
1.590
23,21
2,88
14,13
1,45
2.929
22.135
14,61
1,93
15,77
1,33
Quc gia
Trung bnh
Ngun: Bloomberg, ngy 26/1/2011
Chng ti tin rng thi im hin ti rt thch hp tch ly c phiu ngn hng, c bit l cc ngn
hng ln c th phn ng k v nng lc ti chnh mnh. Chng ti thch cc c phiu ACB, STB,
EIB v (i) y l nhng ngn hng tin phong trong pht trin cc dch v ngn hng bn l ti Vit
Nam vi thng hiu c khng nh, (ii) giai on ti c cu s l c hi tt cho cc ngn hng
ln c tim lc ti chnh mnh mua c nhiu ti sn gi r v m rng th phn trong tng lai, (iii)
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26 Thng 1 2011
VCB
CTG
ACB
STB
EIB
SHB
1.759
1.517
938
918
1.056
349
34,3
23,5
24,4
15,8
15,2
11,2
17.588
15.172
9.377
9.179
10.560
3.493
45%
35%
20%
37%
20%
75%
60.325
35.655
22.879
14.503
16.051
3.912
T l vn nim yt (%)
9,3%
10,8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
2,9%
1,0%
30%
30%
30%
1,5%
EPS 2010
2.303
2.224
2.520
1.990
1.642
1.402
-29%
-3%
-11%
-20%
28%
-10%
ROE 2010F
23%
23%
22%
16%
13%
18%
ROA 2010F
1,3%
0,9%
1,2%
1,3%
1,8%
1,2%
PB 2010F
3,2
2,2
2,0
1,1
1,1
1,3
PE 2010F
14,9
10,6
9,7
7,9
9,3
8,0
Vn bn php l
Ni dung
Ngh nh 141/2006/ND-CP
ngy 22/11/2006
Thng t s 15/2009/TT-NHNN
ngy 10/8/2009
Thng bo s 369/TB-VPCP
ngy 30/12/2009
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Ngy hiu lc
1/1/2010
31/3/2010
26 Thng 1 2011
Vn bn php l
Ni dung
Ngy hiu lc
Thng t s 07/2010/TT-NHNN
ngy 26/2/2010 v thng t s
12/2010/TT-NHNN
ngy
14/4/2010
14/4/2010
Thng t s 13/2010/TT-NHNN
ngy 20/5/2010
1/10/2010
Thng t s 19/2010/TT-NHNN
ngy 27/9/2010
1/10/2010
Thng t s 22/2010/TT-NHNN
ngy 29/10/2010
29/10/2010
Lut s 47/2010/QH12 v cc
t chc tn dng
1/1/2011
Ngn hng
1
2
3
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OCB
Western Bank
Nam
Vn iu l ti
ngy 31/12/2009
Vn iu l ti
ngy 31/12/2010
Vn tng
trong nm 2010
Vn cha tng
trong nm 2010
2.000
2.000
2.000
2.635
2.000
2.000
635
-
465
1.000
1.000
Viet Capital Securities | 7
26 Thng 1 2011
Ngn hng
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Vn iu l ti
ngy 31/12/2009
Vn iu l ti
ngy 31/12/2010
Vn tng
trong nm 2010
Vn cha tng
trong nm 2010
1.515
1.000
1.000
1.500
1.500
1.000
1.000
14.515
2.087
2.000
2.000
1.800
1.500
1.000
1.000
18.022
572
1.000
1.000
300
3.507
913
1.000
1.000
1.200
1.500
2.000
2.000
12.078
Vit
Kin Long
Gia nh
SG Cng thng
Bo Vit
VN Thng tn
Petrolimex
Tng cng
Cc khon gp vn, mua c phn ca cc t chc tn dng khc v ca cng ty con b loi
tr ra khi ngun vn cp 1.
T chc tn dng khng c cp tn dng cho cng ty trc thuc l cng ty chng khon v
khng c cho vay khng c m bo u t, kinh doanh chng khon. Tng d n
cho vay u t chng khon khng c vt qu 20% vn iu l ca ngn hng.
p ng nhng quy nh mi ca Ngn hng nh nc, cc ngn hng s phi thc hin c cu
li ti sn v hot ng, ko theo chi ph vn tng v bin thu nhp li rng gim.
Nng cao nng lc ti chnh
Hin ti ch c 10 trong s 40 ngn hng c vn iu l trn 5.000 t ng, trong ch c 3 ngn
hng c vn iu l trn 10.000 t ng l VCB, CTG v EIB (tr 2 ngn hng thng mi nh nc
ln l BIDV v Agribank).
Vn iu l trung bnh hin nay ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam l 3.666 t ng (tng ng 183
triu USD), thp hn nhiu so vi cc ngn hng trong khu vc. Do , p lc tng vn ca h thng
ngn hng l mt sc p rt ln i vi ngnh khng ch trong nm 2010 m c th cn ko di trong
2-3 nm ti.
10 ngn hng nh hin c vn iu l di 3.000 t ng s phi hon thnh k hoch tng vn vo
nm 2011. Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng ln nh CTG cng c k hoch tng vn t 15.172 t ln khong
30.000 t ng trong nm ny.
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26 Thng 1 2011
i vi cc doanh nghip hot ng trong lnh vc kinh doanh chng khon m t chc tn
dng nm quyn kim sot.
Ngoi ra, theo lut mi, cc ngn hng cn phi tun th cc yu cu sau:
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26 Thng 1 2011
Tng d n tn dng i vi mt cng ty con, cng ty lin kt hoc doanh nghip m t chc
tn dng nm quyn chi phi khng c vt qu 10% vn t c ca t chc tn dng v
khng c vt qu 20% vn t c i vi d n cho tt c cc cng ty con, cng ty lin
kt hoc doanh nghip m t chc tn dng nm quyn chi phi.
n v: triu USD
Ti sn
Li nhun
rng
Agribank
23.384
Vietcombank (*)
15.050
Vietinbank (*)
13.193
ACB (*)
9.085
STB (*)
5.629
Military Bank
3.734
EIB (*)
3.542
TCB
3.495
Maritime bank
3.457
VIB
3.065
Trung bnh 10 ngn hng ln nht ti:
Vit Nam
8.363
Philippines
9.039
Indonesia
17.878
Thi Lan
25.936
Malaysia
35.923
n
83.289
Trung Quc
749.372
Ngun: The Asian Banker
Vn CSH
ROE (%)
Vn CSH/Ti sn (%)
196
232
140
119
90
64
61
69
42
25
751
903
711
502
517
342
735
280
152
147
26,1
25,7
19,7
23,7
17,4
18,7
8,3
24,6
27,6
17,0
3,2
6,0
5,4
5,5
9,2
9,2
20,7
8,0
4,4
4,8
104
84
312
265
338
726
6.925
504
902
1.580
2.389
2.850
5.058
35.122
20,9
10,8
17,2
9,9
14,1
17,0
20,4
7,6
10,0
8,6
9,4
7,5
5,9
4,6
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26 Thng 1 2011
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
CAR=9%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
VCB
CTG
EIB
ACB
STB
T l LDR cao
n cui qu 3/2010 c 4 trong s 5 ngn hng trong danh sch nghin cu ca chng ti c t l
cho vay t ngun vn huy ng (LDR) trn 80%. Thng t 19 m rng khi nim tng ngun vn huy
ng cho vay khi tnh ton LDR gip gim bt kh khn cho cc ngn hng trong vic huy ng
vn. Cc ngun vn ngn hng c th s dng cho vay bao gm:
Tin vay ca t chc trong nc, ca t chc tn dng khc c k hn t 3 thng tr ln.
Hnh 14: Cc ngn hng Vit Nam c t l LDR cao v ph thuc nhiu vo cc khon vay ti cc t chc
tn dng khc
Cc khon vay ti cc t chc tn dng khc/Tng
vn huy ng
LDR
150%
2008
2009
30%
3Q2010
100%
20%
50%
10%
0%
0%
VCB
CTG
EIB
ACB
STB
2008
VCB
2009
CTG
EIB
3Q2010
ACB
STB
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26 Thng 1 2011
Cp
p nht ngnh
ng
ngn hng
Ri
i ro thanh khon cao
Tc tng trng
ng tn dng ca Vit Nam tng cao hn rt nhiu
u so vi tc tng trng huy
ng, dn
n n s mt cn bng khi tin gi ngn hn c em cho vay di h
hn. i vi ton h
thng ngn hng, tc tng trng tn dng lun c duy tr trn 25% kk t nm 2007 n nay.
Hnh 15: Tng trng
ng tn dng lun cao hn
h
tng trng huy ng
Tng trng
ng huy ng v
v tn dng nm 2009 ca
mt
t s ngn h
hng
Ton h
h thng ngn hng
60%
% huy ng
% tn dng
100%
50%
40%
30%
20%
% huy ng
% tn dng
54%
42%
80%
40%
37% 48%
25%
29%
60%
27%
40%
32%
25%
23%
10%
20%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
VCB
CTG
EIB
ACB
STB
Nguy c n
xu (NPL) tng
Mc d t l n
xu bnh
b
qun vn mc 2,5% trong nm 2010 nhng n xu thc t
trong h
thng ngn hng
h
c th cao hn do mt s ngn hng
ng c th
th khng trch d
phng y
y cho cc khon vay ca cc doanh nghip nh
n
nc (DNNN) ln. Mt trong
nhng
ng doanh nghip nh
nh nc ln nht l Vinashin hin ang ph
phi c cu li khon n
86.000 t ng, trong khong 26.000 t ng l d n
ti cc ngn hng thng mi
trong nc
c trong khi cc
c khon vay ny li khng c a vo tnh tt l NPL hin ti.
Theo c
c tnh ca Ngn hng
h
Nh nc, t l n xu c th ln n 3,2% nu tnh c
khon n
ca Vinashin.
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26 Thng 1 2011
VCB
1.759
CTG
1.517
ACB
938
STB
918
EIB
1.056
SHB
349
34,3
23,5
24,4
15,8
15,2
11,2
Vn iu l 2009
12.100
11.252
7.814
6.700
8.800
2.000
Vn iu l 2010
17.588
15.172
9.377
9.179
10.560
3.493
45%
35%
20%
37%
20%
75%
60.325
35.655
22.879
14.503
16.051
3.912
9,3%
10,8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
2,9%
1,0%
30%
30%
30%
1,5%
2009 A
5.004
3.373
2.838
2.175
1.533
415
2010 F
5.400
4.500
3.150
2.436
2.312
653
8%
33%
11%
12%
51%
57%
2009 A
3.945
2.573
2.201
1.671
1.132
311
2010 F
4.050
3.375
2.363
1.827
1.734
490
2009 A
141.621
163.170
62.358
59.657
38.381
12.829
2010 F
171.361
233.333
96.000
80.000
60.642
16.677
2009 A
207.542
177.034
108.992
85.632
41.294
24.615
2010 F
259.428
256.699
163.488
119.885
67.000
32.000
2009 A
256.053
243.785
167.881
104.019
65.488
27.439
2010 F
307.264
368.115
201.457
137.305
94.958
40.000
2009 A
27%
35%
81%
70%
81%
49%
2010 F
21%
43%
54%
34%
58%
30%
2009 A
32%
27%
35%
37%
26%
34%
2010 F
25%
45%
50%
40%
43%
30%
2009 A
15%
24%
63%
44%
37%
90%
2010 F
20%
51%
20%
32%
45%
46%
2009 A
68%
92%
57%
70%
93%
52%
2010 F
66%
91%
59%
67%
91%
52%
7%
5%
6%
10%
20%
9%
Tng ti sn
T l LDR (%)
T l Vn CSH/Tng ti sn (%)
2009 A
2010 F
EPS 2010F
6%
5%
6%
9%
15%
7%
2.303
2.224
2.520
1.990
1.642
1.402
-29%
-3%
-11%
-20%
28%
-10%
ROA 2010F
1,3%
0,9%
1,2%
1,3%
1,8%
1,2%
ROE 2010F
23%
23%
22%
16%
13%
18%
PB 2010F
3,2
2,2
2,0
1,1
1,1
1,3
PE 2010F
14,9
10,6
9,7
7,9
9,3
8,0
* Tng huy ng bao gm tin gi ca khch hng v tin gi cc t chc tn dng khc.
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26 Thng 1 2011
12/31/2009
12/31/2010
Increase
VCB
HOSE
13.224
17.588
4.364
CTG
HOSE
11.253
15.172
3.919
EIB
HOSE
8.800
10.560
1.760
ACB
HNX
7.814
9.377
1.563
STB
HOSE
6.700
9.179
2.479
SHB
HNX
2.000
3.498
1.498
NVB
HNX
1.000
3.304
2.304
HBB
HNX
3.000
3.000
20.514
28.357
7.843
Tng cc NH nim yt
1.050
TCB
OTC
5.400
6.932
1.532
10
MB
OTC
5.300
6.700
1.400
11
ng Nam
OTC
5.068
5.334
266
12
Maritime Bank
OTC
3.000
5.000
2.000
13
ng
OTC
3.400
4.500
1.100
14
SCB
OTC
3.653
4.185
532
15
VIB
OTC
3.000
4.000
1.000
16
ABB
OTC
3.482
3.830
348
17
Lin Vit
OTC
3.650
3.650
18
Tn Ngha
OTC
3.399
3.399
19
VP Bank
OTC
2.117
4.000
1.883
20
Phng Nam
OTC
2.568
3.049
481
21
i Dng
OTC
2.000
3.500
1.500
22
i Tn
OTC
2.000
3.000
1.000
23
Tin Phong
OTC
2.000
3.000
1.000
24
Bc
OTC
2.120
3.000
880
25
GP Bank
OTC
2.000
3.018
1.018
26
HDB
OTC
1.550
3.000
1.450
27
Mekong housing
OTC
1.000
3.000
2.000
28
OTC
1.000
3.100
2.100
29
Nht
OTC
1.000
3.000
2.000
30
Gia nh
OTC
1.000
2.000
1.000
31
OCB
OTC
2.000
2.635
635
465
32
Phng Ty
OTC
2.000
2.000
1.000
33
Vit
OTC
1.515
2.087
572
913
34
Kin Long
OTC
1.000
2.000
1.000
35
Nam
OTC
2.000
2.000
1.000
36
OTC
1.500
1.800
300
1.200
37
Bo Vit
OTC
1.500
1.500
1.500
38
VN thng tn
OTC
1.000
1.000
2.000
Petrolimex
OTC
2.000
39
1.000
1.000
Tng cc NH cha NY
73.222
100.219
26.997
93.737
128.576
34.840
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1.510
1.500
26 Thng 1 2011
Cc khuyn ngh
MUA
nh ngha
Nu gi mc tiu cao hn gi th trng 20%
THM VO
NM GI
GIM
BN
KHNG KHUYN NGH
KHUYN NGH TM
HON
Tr khi c khuyn co khc, nhng khuyn ngh u t ch c gi tr trong vng 12 thng. Nhng bin ng gi
trong tng lai c th lm cho cc khuyn ngh tm thi khng khp vi mc chnh lch gia gi th trng ca
c phiu v gi mc tiu nn vic vic din gii cc khuyn ngh u t cn c thc hin mt cch linh hot.
Gi mc tiu: Trong hu ht trng hp, gi mc tiu s tng ng vi nh gi ca chuyn vin phn tch v
gi tr hp l hin ti ca c phiu. Gi mc tiu l mc gi c phiu nn c giao dch hin ti nu th trng
ng quan im ca chuyn vin phn tch v c nhng yu t xc tc cn thit to ra s thay i nhn thc
trong thi hn nht nh. Tuy nhin, nu chuyn vin phn tin rng trong thi hn xc nh s khng c tin tc, s
kin hoc yu t thc y cn thit c phiu c th t n gi tr hp l th gi mc tiu c th khc vi gi tr
hp l. V th, trong hu ht trng hp, khuyn ngh ca chng ti ch l nh gi s cha ph hp gia gi th
trng hin ti v gi tr hp l hin ti ca c phiu theo quan im ca chng ti.
Phng php nh gi: xc nh gi mc tiu, chuyn vin phn tch c th s dng nhiu phng php nh
gi khc nhau, bao gm nhng khng gii hn, phng php chit khu dng tin t do v nh gi so snh. Vic
la chn phng php ty thuc vo tng ngnh, cng ty, tnh cht c phiu v nhiu yu t khc. Kt qu nh
gi c th da trn mt hoc kt hp nhiu phng php sau: 1) nh gi da trn nhiu ch s (P/E, P/CF,
EV/doanh thu, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), so snh nhm cng ty v da vo s liu qu kh, 2) M hnh
chit khu (DCF, DVMA, DDM); 3) Phng php tnh tng gi tr cc thnh phn hoc cc phng php nh
gi da vo ti sn; v 4) Phng php nh gi s dng li nhun kinh t (Li nhun thng d, EVA). Cc
m hnh nh gi ny ph thuc vo cc yu t kinh t v m nh tng trng GDP, li sut, t gi, nguyn liu vi
cc gi nh khc v nn kinh t cng nh nhng ri ro vn c trong cng ty ang xem xt. Ngoi ra, tm l th
trng cng c th nh hng n vic nh gi cng ty. Qu trnh nh gi cn cn c vo nhng k vng c th
thay i nhanh chng m khng cn thng bo, ty vo s pht trin ring ca tng ngnh.
Ri ro: Tnh hnh hot ng trong qu kh khng nht thit s din ra tng t cho cc kt qu trong tng lai. T
gi ngoi t c th nh hng bt li n gi tr, gi hoc li nhun ca bt k chng khon hay cng c ti chnh
no c lin quan c ni n trong bo co ny. c t vn u t, thc hin giao dch hoc cc yu cu
khc, khch hng nn lin h vi n v i din kinh doanh ca khu vc c gii p.
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26 Thng 1 2011
Chi nhnh H Ni
18 Ng Quyn, Qun Hon Kim, H Ni
T : (84) 4 6262 6999 F : (84) 4 6278 2688
Trong nc
Nguyn Quc Dng
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 136
dung.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn
H Ni
L c Cng
+84 4 6262 6999, ext 333
cuong.le@vcsc.com.vn
Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit. Bo co ny c vit da trn
ngun thng tin ng tin cy vo thi im cng b. Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit khng chu trch
nhim v chnh xc ca nhng thng tin ny. Quan im, d bo v nhng c lng trong bo co ny ch
th hin kin ca tc gi ti thi im pht hnh. Nhng quan im ny khng th hin quan im chung ca
Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc. Bo co ny ch nhm
mc ch cung cp thng tin cho cc t chc u t cng nh cc nh u t c nhn ca Cng ty c phn chng
khon Bn Vit v khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt k chng khon no c tho lun trong
bo co ny. Quyt nh ca nh u t nn da vo nhng s t vn c lp v thch hp vi tnh hnh ti chnh
cng nh mc tiu u t ring bit. Bo co ny khng c php sao chp. ti to. pht hnh v phn phi vi
bt k mc ch no nu khng c s chp thun bng vn bn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit.
Xin vui lng ghi r ngun trch dn nu s dng cc thng tin trong bo co ny.
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