THNG K TRONG HOT NG TH TRNG CHNG KHON

TS. Bi c Triu Khoa Thng k - H KTQD Mt trong cc c trng c bn ca nn kinh t hin i l Th trng chng khon (TTCK), ni din ra cc giao dch chng khon, phong v biu ca nn kinh t quc gia, khu vc v c th l ca c th gii. Phin giao dch u tin ca TTCK Vit Nam khai mc vo ngy 20-72000 ti Trung tm giao dch chng khon TP. HCM v ngy tr thnh Ngy truyn thng ca ngnh Chng khon Vit Nam. Thng k vi t cch l cng c ca nhn thc v qun l, c chc nng thu thp, x l thng tin p ng nhu cu cho cc nh u t v cc nh qun l, gim st TTCK. 1. Chc nng ca thng k trong hot ng TTCK Chc nng ca thng k trong hot ng ca TTCK th hin cc mt sau y: - m bo thu thp nhng thng tin y v thch hp nht v TTCK (cc loi giy t c gi, gi c, cc nh u t, cc trung gian ti chnh, khi lng chng khon, ri ro,v.v,) - Thnh lp c s d liu thng tin cho vic thng qua cc quyt nh u t, iu tit v pht trin TTCK. - Hon thin phng php lun nghin cu thng k hot ng ca TTCK, ch ra nhng quy lut vn ng ca n. - T nhng thng tin v phng php lun m bo vic kim tra cc ch bo ti chnh. Cc ch bo ny c hnh thnh trn TTCK, n phn nh hat ng kinh doanh v xu hng pht trin kinh t v m, - Thit lp cc thng tin m bo cho vic phn tch thng k v qun l qu trnh kinh t-x hi c hnh thnh trong lnh vc ti chnh - tn dng, ra cc phng php lun tng ng trong phn tch v thc hin chng. - Thnh lp phng php lun v tin hnh d bo cc ch tiu v TTCK. 2. Tc dng ca H thng ch tiu thng k TTCK nh gi hot ng ca TTCK cn phi c h thng ch tiu thng k. H thng ch tiu ny phn nh v mt lng trong s xc nh v mt cht tt c cc hot ng ca TTCK, gip chng ta nhn thc y , ton din v khoa hc v hot ng ca th trng cao cp ny. H thng ch tiu thng k l thnh phn quan trng nht v nh lng, m bo cho h thng thng tin TTCK vn rt a dng v phong ph gip c quan qun l, iu hnh thc hin nhim v ca mnh v cc nh u t tng hp, phn tch th trng v quyt nh u t. H thng ch tiu thng k TTCK c tc dng lng ha cc mt quan trng nht, cu trc khch quan, mi lin h c bn ca TTCK. T cho php nhn thc c bn cht, tnh quy lut v xu hng pht trin ca TTCK. C th n c nhng tc dng trn cc mt sau y: - Nghin cu, phn tch, nh gi gi c cc giao dch chng khon thng qua cc cc ch tiu phn nh gi c cc giao dch ny. Cc loi gi chng khon thng k thu thp, tng hp v phn tch c th l: gi m ca; gi ng ca; gi tham chiu v cc phng php xc nh chng. Ch tiu tng hp l Tng gi tr giao dch c th c nghin cu, phn tch theo phm vi ton b th trng hoc theo c cu ca n. Thng k cn c nhim v xc nh ch tiu tng hp l Ch s gi chng khon, nc ta l ch s VN-INDEX v phng php xc nh ch s ny. - Nghin cu, phn tch, nh gi khi lng cc giao dch chng khon thng qua cc ch tiu phn nh khi lng cc giao dch ny. Ch tiu thng k phn nh khi lng giao dch l ch tiu Tng khi lng giao dch tnh chung cho ton th trng hoc chi tit theo c cu ca n. Cc chi tit ny c th phn tch nh khi lng t mua, khi lng t bn, khi lng giao dch; khi lng giao dch phn theo loi chng khon, - Nghin cu, phn tch, nh gi cc ch tiu phn nh cht lng v s pht trin ca TTCK. y l nhm ch tiu b sung v phn tch TTCK, cc ch tiu phn nh cu trc TTCK. l nghin cu v phn tch v hng ha ca TTCK, v hnh thc t chc ca TTCK v v qu trnh lun chuyn vn. C th phn tch v so snh v bin ng ca chng theo thi gian. Cc nghin cu, phn tch, nh gi trn gip cc nh u t, cc nh qun l nhn thc c xu hng vn ng ca TTCK. T c nhng quyt nh u t hiu qu, cc nh qun l cc cp v m v vi m c nhng bin php, chnh sch ng n, kp thi nhm gi n nh v pht trin TTCK. 3. Cc ngun thng tin thng k TTCK Cc ngun thng tin thng k TTCK c th khai thc t:

- Thng tin t t chc nim yt, ni dung thng tin ny bao gm: thng tin trn bng co bch, thng tin nh k, thng tin bt thng v thng tin theo yu cu. - Thng tin t S giao dch chng khon (SGDCK), thng tin ny thng xuyn cp nht trn h thng thng tin ca SGDCK nh bng in t, bn tin th trng, mng internet, Website, Ni dung thng tin do SGDCK bao gm: thng tin t nh qun l th trng, thng tin v th trng, thng tin v din bin ca th trng, thng tin v tnh hnh ca cc t chc nim yt, thng tin v cc nh u t v thng tin v hot ng ca cng ty chng khon thnh vin. - Thng tin t cc t chc kinh doanh, dch v chng khon nh cc bo co ti chnh, hot ng kinh doanh, lu chuyn tin t, v cc thng tin v th trng v nh u t nh s ti khon giao dch, t l k qu,... - Thng tin v giao dch chng khon c thng bo trn bng kt qu giao dch trn SGDCK v trn cc phng tin thng tin khc nh bo, tp ch, Cc ngun thng tin trn phn ln c phn nh bng s (mt lng), qua ngi s dng thng tin c th nm bt, phn tch chng nhm phc v mc tiu ca mnh. TTCK l mt trong nhng phn quan trng chim mt dung lng ln ca nghin cu thng k. Theo s tha nhn chung ca cc nh ngn hng, cc cng ty mi gii chng khon, hot ng ca h khng ch ti phn phi ngun lc ti chnh v s ri ro m cn ti phn phi thng tin ti chnh trn c s cc ch tiu thng k. Chnh v vy tng cng vai tr ca thng k cng nh nng cao trnh phn tch thng k cho cc nh qun l v u t trn TTCK l vic lm quan trng v cn thit hin nay Ti liu tham kho 1. i hc KTQD, Gio trnh L thuyt ti chnh - tin t, NXB thng k - 2002 2. i hc KTQD, Gio trnh th trng chng khon, NXB ti chnh - 2002 3. i hc KTQD, Gio trnh thng k kinh t, NXB gio dc - 2002 4. i hc KTQD, Gio trnh L thuyt ti chnh - tin t NXB thng k - 2002 5. i hc KTQD, Gio trnh l thuyt thng k, NXB gio dc - 1998 6. Bernad J. Foley, th trng chng khon, NXB ti chnh - 1995 7. PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Nam - Nhng vn c bn v phn tch v u t chng khon sch chuyn kho, NXB Ti chnh - 2003