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Static Models, Dynamic Processes and The Tongass Land Management Plan
Static Models, Dynamic Processes and The Tongass Land Management Plan
Guy Robertson
Within Agency
“Science” Public
Participation
Deterministic Planning Model
Nested within technocratic model
Planning Direct Economic Indirect Economic
Alternatives Impacts Impacts
(IMPLAN)
LUDS Harvest
Polygons Scheduling Outputs
On map (FORPLAN) •Timber
•Fish Decision
•Recreation
•Wilderness
Maker
•Etc.
Other Estimation Techniques
(e.g. deer habitat model) Other Impacts
Social Choice Planning Model
100
Million Board feet
80
Offered
60 Sold
Harvested
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
4,000
Plan “implemented”
3,500
3,000
2,500
Jobs
2,000
1,500
1,052 Direct jobs
1,000
lost since 1997
500
0
82
83
86
87
90
91
94
95
98
99
03
04
02
00
84
85
88
89
92
93
96
97
01
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
What about the indirect and
Induced employment impacts?
@ 2.93 total jobs per direct job, impacts
would be on the order of:
1,052 x 2.93 = 3,082 jobs
52,000
51,000
50,000
Jobs
49,000
48,000
47,000
46,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
80
86
88
90
92
94
96
00
02
04
82
84
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Total Employment in Ketchikan, Prince of Wales, and Wrangel
Yakutat
250
200
Basic
Employees
150
Non-Basic
100
50
Evidence of
Multipliers
0
Haines
900
800
…?
700
600 Basic
Employees
500
Non-Basic
400
300
200
100
0
Kake
250
200
Basic
“Basic” and
Employees
150
100
Non-Basic “Non-Basic”
50
employment in
selected
0
communities
82.1
83.2
84.3
85.4
87.1
88.2
89.3
90.4
92.1
93.2
94.3
95.4
200 50
0
100
-50
0
Evidence of
-100
-100 -150
-200 -200
Multipliers
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
…?
200 100
100
50
0
0
-100
-50
-200
-300 -100
-400 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
-150 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
200
80 “Basic” and “Non-
40 Basic”
0
0 employment in
-200
-40 selected
-400 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
-80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
communities (first
NONBASIC BASIC NONBASIC BASIC
differenced)
Evidence of Multipliers
…?
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
Sitka
Petersburg
Thorne Bay
Yakutat
Kake
Wrangell
Ketchikan
Juneau
Gustavus
Metlakatla
Hydaburg
Hoonah
Hollis
Haines
Angoon
But why?
– Leakage
– Labor inelasticity
– Static models can’t predict dynamic
systems…not even as approximations
So was the TLMP a Failure?
No
– Public information document
– Reference to keep the debaters honest
– Focus for social and legal debate
• Current conditions
• Projections
But not a success in the narrow technocratic
decision model sense
So was the TLMP a Failure?
Adaptive Management
– FS buzz word for at least ten years
– Monitoring plan required in all planning exercises
– Appx. $400 million for inventory and monitoring activities