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LTE and The 1800 MHZ Opportunity
LTE and The 1800 MHZ Opportunity
LTE and The 1800 MHZ Opportunity
Executive
Summary
About
this
Paper
This
Northstream
white
paper
examines
the
take-up
and
status
of
LTE
two
years
after
the
first
commercial
launch
and
analyses
the
key
aspects
that
will
determine
its
future
success.
It
is
widely
recognised
that
mobile
data
usage
growth,
whether
on
smartphones,
laptops
or
tablets,
will
continue.
In
such
a
market
situation,
there
are
a
number
of
challenges
for
the
main
stakeholders
to
cope
with,
operators,
equipment
suppliers
and
regulators
alike.
Mobile
networks
will
need
to
accommodate
significantly
different
volumes
and
types
of
traffic
than
today,
adopt
continuously
evolving
technologies
and
make
more
flexible
use
of
the
scarce
resource
of
radio
spectrum.
Previous
Northstream
white
papers
have
discussed
the
generic
opportunities
and
challenges
LTE
technology
brings
to
operators
and
how
to
adopt
a
suitable
migration
strategy.
Two
of
the
major
concerns
have
been
how
and
when
voice
services
could
be
offered
and
the
availability
of
ample
device
portfolios.
Voice
over
LTE
will
indeed
happen
soon,
and
could
bring
a
boost
to
operators
dwindling
voice
business,
but
that
is
a
topic
for
another
white
paper.
In
this
paper
we
instead
put
our
focus
on
analysing
the
critical
availability
of
suitable
and
plentiful
LTE
spectrum
and
how
that
can
enable,
or
inversely
prohibit,
a
continued
strong
growth
of
mobile
communication.
Highlights LTE is recognised as the future mobile technology in all regions of the world, offering high enough data speeds and spectrum efficiency to satisfy the rising data traffic needs of demanding end users The two key enablers for the adoption and growth of LTE are: 1) the coordinated availability of spectrum, network solutions, devices and end-user services, and 2) spectrum refarming flexibility There are several spectral options for LTE, and in addition to the earlier recognised 700/800 and 2600 MHz bands, one trend today is to refarm the large spectrum resources in the 1800 MHz band for LTE The 1800 MHz band is widely used today for GSM but carries several advantages that m ake it suitable for LTE, among them its ready availability in many regions and its balanced capabilities to provide both capacity and coverage There are no technological barriers preventing deployment of LTE in 1800 MHz, and today already 15 operators have commercially launched LTE in 1800 MHz, with several other operators conducting on- going trials, studies or consultations. Concurrently, the number of available LTE devices is rapidly increasing, including also support for 1800 MHz. 1
Introduction
1.1. Growth
in
data
traffic
The
telecom
industry
has
an
agreed
understanding
that
the
forecasts
of
massive
growth
in
mobile
data
traffic
are
materializing.
Mobile
data
traffic
is
expected
to
grow
to
10.8
exabytes
per
month
by
2016,
an
18-fold
increase
from
20111.
The
major
driving
forces
behind
the
growth
in
data
traffic,
besides
the
increasing
number
of
mobile
connections,
are
the
increased
availability
of
higher
speed
mobile
networks
and
the
proliferation
of
smartphones.
And
importantly,
data
usage
per
connection
is
rising
as
a
result
of
data- intense
applications
and
content,
cloud
services
and
the
evolution
of
data
price
plans.
Satisfying
the
rising
data
traffic
needs
of
demanding
consumer
and
business
users
by
providing
high
quality
mobile
broadband
offers
great
business
opportunities
for
the
telecommunications
industry.
However,
to
cater
for
and
monetize
on
this
need
while
keeping
competitive
advantages
and
profitability
at
reasonable
levels,
is
challenging.
In
order
to
deliver
the
fast
and
high
quality
mobile
experience
to
all
users,
technologies
such
as
LTE
and
later
on
LTE
Advanced
are
needed,
together
with
efficient
and
maximised
spectrum
usage.
1.2. LTE
spectrum
Most
people
in
the
industry
agree
that
LTE
is
the
next
step
in
the
network
evolution.
LTE
provides
advantages
such
as
higher
capacity,
data
rates
as
high
as
100Mbps
(DL)/50
Mbps
(UL),
lower
latency
and
improved
system
design.
The
data
rates
can
theoretically
be
even
higher
if
MIMO
is
also
applied.
Compared
to
2G/3G
standards,
LTE
is
designed
to
be
deployed
in
a
variety
of
spectrum
ranges
in
different
frequency
bands.
For
the
initial
LTE
launches,
outside
US
and
Japan,
the
2.6
GHz
band
has
been
the
most
popular
as
this
band
is
available
for
mobile
services
in
most
regions
of
the
world
and
hence
internationally
identified
as
the
primary
band
for
LTE2.
However,
LTE
can
and
will
be
deployed
in
existing
2G
and
3G
bands,
in
the
digital
dividend
bands3
(700
or
800
MHz
depending
on
the
region),
as
well
as
in
the
AWS
band4
(1700/2100
MHz)
in
the
US
and
Canada.
NTT
DoCoMo
in
Japan
is
also
using
the
2100
MHz
band
for
LTE.
1.
In
many
European
countries,
the
900
MHz
band
has
been
made
technology
agnostic,
and
while
it
is
still
widely
used
for
GSM
in
Europe,
operators
are
slowly
starting
to
reuse
the
band
to
address
the
needs
of
the
3G
market
and
to
complement
the
main
2100
MHz
band.
However,
there
is
little
evidence
of
operators
investing
into
deploying
LTE
in
the
900
MHz
band
in
short
to
mid
term.
A
recent
trend
is
to
use
the
1800
MHz
band
for
LTE
deployments.
One
reason
is
that
the
1800
MHz
band
is
wider
(has
more
capacity)
than
700/800
or
900
MHz
and
offers
a
more
cost
efficient
way
to
cover
large
areas
than
the
higher
LTE
dedicated
2.6
GHz
band.
There
are
operators
from
all
regions
of
the
world,
except
the
Americas,
implementing
or
trialling
LTE
in
1800MHz.
In
North
America
the
1800/1900
MHz
band
is
dedicated
for
GSM,
similarly
to
the
900
MHz
band
in
Europe
and
until
GSM
usage
decreases
significantly,
these
two
bands
will
not
be
the
short
term
preferred
options
for
LTE
deployments.
Europe !800 MHz !1800 MHz !2600 MHz APAC !700 MHz !800 MHz !1800 MHz !2100 MHz !2600 MHz Middle East !900 MHz !1800 MHz !2300 MHz !2600 MHz
Figure 1: Key LTE spectrum bands by region 1.3. LTE technology adoption When comparing the number of operator commitments, LTE is the fastest developing mobile technology ever. By the end of 2011 there were a total of 48 commercial LTE launches worldwide. 301 operators are investing in LTE in 95 countries, forecasted to result in a cumulative total of 128 commercial LTE networks by the end of 20125 (and by the time you are reading this paper, all those numbers have likely multiplied).
Cisco,
Feb
2012,
Cisco
VNI:
Global
Mobile
Data
Traffic
Forecast
Update,
2011
2016
2
Dotecon,
Jun
2010,
Fixed
or
flexible?
A
survey
of
2.6GHz
spectrum
awards
3
Europe
800
MHz
band
(790
862
MHz);
US
-
700
MHz
band
(698
806
MHz,
discontinuous);
APAC
700
MHz
band,
Source:
GSMA
4
Known
as
UMTS
band
IV
(UL:
1710-1755
MHz,
DL:
2110-2155
MHz)
1
ensure
that
operators
have
the
spectrum
they
need
for
new
technologies
such
as
LTE
and
at
the
same
time
introduce
the
flexibility
that
secures
a
continuously
optimal
usage
of
the
natural
resource.
These
goals
can
only
be
achieved
by
making
spectrum
technology
agnostic.
The
two
key
enablers
we
address
above
are
inter- dependent
but
with
the
difference
that
the
coordinated
availability
of
network
equipment,
devices
and
services
is
market
and
industry
driven,
whereas
the
spectrum
is
controlled
by
the
governments,
making
them
key
gatekeepers
for
the
success
of
LTE.
As
all
cellular
technologies
eventually
face
the
end
of
their
life
cycles,
an
early
refarming
of
spectrum
is
crucial
to
flexibly
phase
out
the
legacy
technologies.
3. Technology
and
spectrum
analysis
Commercial*LTE*Launches*
80" 60" 40" 20" 0"
Figure 2: Commercial LTE launches globally (GSA) 2. Key enablers for LTE take-up
2009"
2010"
2011"
2012e"
Learning from 2G and 3G (and the sub-steps of each generation), Northstream sees two key enablers that are critical to a successful take-up of LTE: 1) Coordinated availability of eco-system components; and 2) Spectrum refarming flexibility In order to avoid the relatively slow initial adoption experienced with 3G, coordinated availability of spectrum, network solutions, devices and end-user services needs to be achieved (see Figure 3). The scarcity of the radio spectrum often leads to high prices in spectrum auctions, and to justify large spectrum investments, operators need to be sure that at the right point in time there are network components as well as devices available to offer commercial services.
3.1. 2.6 GHz and 700/800 MHz bands As mentioned in the previous chapter, LTE can be deployed in various frequency bands 3GPP has identified over 20 paired (FDD) and 11 unpaired (TDD) bands for the use of LTE worldwide. National and regional differences of what can be used do indeed exist. But given the expected traffic growth no band alone can provide sufficient amount of spectrum, so combining different bands will be critical. The 2.6 GHz band (2500-2690 MHz) is particularly suitable to provide capacity in traffic-intense urban hotspots, but its limitations on wide area coverage and indoor penetration often necessitate this band to be used in combination with a lower spectrum band for more cost efficient network build out. The widespread support of 2.6 GHz naturally provides opportunities for economies of scale, ease of roaming and interoperability of devices and services. Spectrum in this band has already been licensed in many countries in western Europe and Asia Pacific, and although auctions are still pending in many other countries, 2.6 GHz is going to be the globally recognized LTE band. The transition from analogue to digital TV has freed spectrum in the 700/800 MHz to be allocated for alternative use, such as deployment of LTE. Spectrum in these lower bands is highly valuable due to superior coverage capabilities (especially useful for suburban and rural areas) and the ability to penetrate well into buildings. But the regulatory process of freeing up and licensing spectrum in 700/800 MHz is slow and complex, and in many countries these bands are not an option for LTE deployment for many years to come. In addition, these bands are not particularly wide and may not be enough to satisfy the capacity needs. In the US, this spectrum was released early and today there is a large- 3
Networks
Spectrum Services
Figure
3:
Coordinated
availability
With
the
rapid
pace
of
market
and
technology
development
where
2G,
3G
and
now
4G
networks
are
simultaneously
in
commercial
use,
operators
spectrum
needs
change
and
evolve.
The
traditional
practice
of
regulators
locking
spectrum
for
the
use
of
a
specific
technology
alone,
no
longer
reflects
market
needs
and
prohibits
efficient
use
of
the
spectrum.
Regulators
need
to
Devices
scale
deployment
of
LTE
in
the
700
MHz
band.
In
Asia
Pacific,
Latin
America
and
the
Middle
East
and
Africa
many
of
the
700/800
MHz
band
auctions6
are
not
taking
place
until
2012
2015.
In
Europe,
the
situation
is
split
as
few
countries
in
northern
and
western
Europe
have
already
licensed
both
800
and
2600
MHz
while
other
parts
of
Europe
are
yet
to
start
the
process.
3.2. 1800
MHz
band
The
fact
that
2.6
GHz
and
700/800
MHz
bands
are
not
available
in
all
regions
creates
a
higher
demand
for
LTE- suitable
spectrum
than
there
is
supply.
Even
in
countries
where
spectrum
in
these
bands
has
been
licensed,
there
is
ambition
to
deploy
LTE
also
in
other
frequency
bands.
Re- use
of
existing
2G
and
3G
bands
such
as
900,
1800
or
2100
MHz
for
LTE
is
already
reality
in
some
markets
and
under
consideration
in
others.
The
1800
MHz
spectrum
band,
in
particular,
has
come
into
focus
and
makes
a
strong
case
worth
evaluating.
1800
MHz
is
one
of
the
largest
available
cellular
blocks
with
a
significant
amount
of
spectrum
in
many
regions.
Even
though
it
may
take
time
before
this
band
is
exploited
to
its
full
potential
for
LTE7,
Northstream
believes
1800
MHz
will
be
an
important
LTE
band
in
particular
in
Europe
and
Asia
Pacific,
but
likely
also
elsewhere,
as
it
offers
a
balanced
combination
of
coverage
and
capacity.
Today,
the
1800
MHz
spectrum
band
is
widely
used
for
GSM
and
nearly
half
of
the
worlds
800+
operators
(351
mobile
operators
in
148
countries)
already
have
licenses
for
this
band8.
Operators
spectrum
portfolios
vary
of
course;
for
some
operators,
1800
MHz
is
their
only
asset
while
others
use
it
to
complement
GSM
in
900
MHz.
As
3G
gradually
replaces
GSM
traffic,
it
is
logical
that
the
GSM
spectrum
is
freed
up
for
use
of
either
3G
or
LTE,
or
both.
3.3. Characteristics
and
key
properties
of
LTE
1800
MHz
One
of
the
specific
advantages
of
the
1800
MHz
band
(see
Table
1)
is
its
size
-
2
x
75
MHz
in
most
markets.
The
spectrum
is
often
in
slots
of
10
MHz
or
wider,
typically
not
fragmented
and
often
only
partially
utilized9.
For
example,
in
the
six
key
European
markets10,
85%
of
the
operators
who
have
assets
in
the
1800MHz
band,
have
them
in
slots
of
10
MHz
or
wider11.
The
better
coverage
capabilities
of
1800
MHz
make
this
band
a
good
complement
to
LTE
2.6
GHz
particularly
for
a
cost-efficient
deployment
of
LTE
in
rural
and
suburban
areas.
LTE
in
1800
MHz
allows
to
re-use
optimally
located
existing
GSM
sites,
thus
reducing
CAPEX
due
to
savings
in
resources
otherwise
spent
on
building
new
sites.
According
to
GSA12,
it
can
be
as
much
as
60%
less
expensive
to
cover
the
same
area
with
LTE
1800
MHz
than
with
2.6
GHz.
Fewer
sites
naturally
also
result
in
lower
electricity,
maintenance,
rental
and
other
operational
costs.
In
countries
where
2.6
GHz
and/or
the
700/800
MHz
bands
have
not
been
licensed
yet
(or
where
one
or
more
operators
have
no
such
license),
1800
MHz
gives
the
opportunity
to
deploy
LTE
in
line
with
market
needs.
Needless
to
say,
delays
in
LTE
deployment
can
hinder
growth
and
hurt
the
interests
of
both
operators
and
consumers.
Sites
equipped
with
software
to
switch
between
technologies
can
be
remotely
controlled
as
end
users
needs
evolve.
This
way
the
spectrum
currently
used
for
GSM,
for
example,
can
be
flexibly
and
gradually
moved
to
LTE
as
GSM
usage
decreases,
even
momentarily
to
cater
for
short
term
needs
and
specifics.
Table 1: Key properties of LTE 1800 MHz 3.4. Refarming of spectrum in 1800 MHz for LTE Already in 2009, the EU issued a decision13 to allow the use of UMTS in 900 and 1800 MHz as a technology that can coexist with GSM. The decision was complemented in April 2011 to include 4G and specific technical guidelines on frequency separation between GSM and LTE, UMTS or WiMax when these networks are deployed in proximity. However, the regulatory landscape in Europe is very fragmented and although many EU countries have acknowledged this decision and allow technology neutrality in 900 and 1800 MHz, full Europe wide refarming will take some time.
GSMA,
2011,
GSMA:
Digital
Dividend
It
is
predicted
by
Informa
(2011)
that
7%
of
global
LTE
subscriptions
will
be
in
the
1800
MHz
band
in
2016
8
GSMA,
Jul
2011,
Mobile
Broadband
in
the
1800MHz
Band
9
Ericsson,
Jul
2011,
Mobile
Broadband
in
1800
MHz
Spectrum
10
France,
Germany,
Italy,
Spain,
Sweden,
and
UK
11
ECO,
Jan
2012,
The
licensing
of
Mobile
bands
in
CEPT
7 6
12 13
Potential
setbacks
can
arise
if
refarming
1800
MHz
impacts
the
national
market
and
its
competition
landscape
as
spectrum
is
not
always
equally
distributed
among
operators
(e.g.
Austria,
the
Netherlands,
UK,
etc.).
This
complexity,
however,
should
not
stop
the
process;
merely
delay
deploying
LTE
in
the
1800
MHz
band
in
the
short
run.
In
Asia,
many
countries
already
allow
or
consider
to
permit
refarming
of
1800
MHz,
though
not
yet
China
and
India
who
seem
not
to
have
refarming
of
1800
MHz
on
their
agenda,
likely
due
to
continued
GSM
growth
and
the
focus
on
2300
and
2600
MHz
bands
for
LTE.
LTE
has
been
commercially
launched
in
1800
MHz
spectrum
in
12
countries
by
15
operators14
(See
Table
2).
Giant
multi-country
operators
such
as
Deutsche
Telekom
have
launched
LTE
1800
MHz,
thus
paving
the
way
for
smaller
operators
and
communicating
to
the
device
market
that
LTE
1800
MHz
is
a
true
and
immediate
option.
In
addition
to
the
commercially
launched
LTE
1800
MHz
network
deployments,
trials,
studies
and
consultations
have
been
or
are
being
conducted
in
over
25
countries,
including
Brazil,
France,
Sweden,
and
the
UK.
As
for
any
refarming,
using
1800
MHz
for
LTE
poses
potential
technical
and
deployment
related
challenges.
Their
extent
naturally
depends
on
the
situation
in
the
particular
country.
With
LTE
Advanced
in
sight,
deploying
LTE
to
its
full
potential
would
require
ample
spectrum
resources
-
with
bandwidths
of
10
to
20
MHz
the
benefits
are
best
leveraged,
at
least
when
it
comes
to
future
bandwidth
intensive
services.
However,
the
flexibility
of
LTE
allows
the
technology
to
be
implemented
even
in
lesser
bandwidths
such
as
1.4,
3
and
5
MHz.
The
smaller
bandwidth
naturally
affects
the
capacity
and
speed,
but
on
the
other
hand
-
and
herein
lies
a
strong
advantage
-
it
enables
efficient
spectrum
usage
and
tailored
frequency
scenarios.
Still,
the
capacity,
or
data
speed
is
essentially
proportional
to
the
bandwidth
in
use.
For
example,
if
20
MHz
bandwidth
gives
90
Mbps,
3
MHz
would
give
an
adequate
13
Mbps.
Another
question
regarding
spectrum
refarming
for
LTE
in
1800
MHz
(or
refarming
in
general)
is
the
potential
degradation
of
existing
GSM
services.
Wireless
solutions
are
always
affected
by
interference
from
other
usage
of
the
spectrum,
and
traditionally
guardbands
have
been
set
in
between
adjacent
spectrum
bands
to
avoid
interference
of
different
radio
technologies.
Although
technology
advancements
allow
narrower
guardbands,
inter-
but
more
importantly
intra-band
interference
becomes
a
non- negligable
consideration
when
1800
MHz
is
gradually
transformed
from
GSM
to
LTE
use.
However,
GSM
and
LTE
can
well
coexist
in
the
same
band,
even
in
multi-operator
uncoordinated
operations
200
kHz
separation
between
the
channel
edges
is
sufficient
to
prevent
interference15.
As
discussed
above
LTE
can
be
deployed
with
as
little
spectrum
as
1.4
MHz
allowing
co- existence
even
in
fairly
narrow
bands.
When
spectrum
is
used
in
coordinated
operation
no
channel
separation
is
needed15
as
operators
can
minimise
the
network
quality
impact
by
careful
network
planning.
Interference
issues
can
also
be
mitigated
with
LTE
specific
interference
filters
in
place.
In
either
case,
the
ability
to
successfully
manage
the
two
technologies
in
the
same
band
is
important,
as
GSM
traffic,
will
still
be
a
significant
technology
for
several
years
to
come.
Albeit
the
challenges
discussed
above
need
to
be
addressed
by
operators,
none
of
these
constitutes
a
technological
barrier,
and
the
advantages
of
deploying
LTE
in
1800
MHz
are
significant
and
outweigh
the
potential
drawbacks.
Operator
Aero2 / Mobyland Omnitel M1 DT LMT TeliaSonera Zain Telstra
Country
Poland Lithuania Singapore Germany Latvia Finland Saudi Arabia Australia
Launch
Sep 2010 April 2011 June 2011 July 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Sep 2011
Coverage
(at launch)
3 cities 5 cities Financial district 1 city 1 city 2 cities 3 cities Capital CBDs, +30 regional centres 4 cities City centre 10 districts in capital 1 city
Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2012
Table 2: LTE 1800 MHz commercial launches 3.5. Potential challenges to deploying LTE in 1800 MHz
15
14
CEPT/ECC, Nov 2010, Compatibility study for LTE and WiMAX operating within the bands 880-915 MHz / 925-960 MHz and 1710- 1785 MHz / 1805-1880 MHz (900/1800 MHz bands)
3.6 Spectrum
portfolio
strategies
When
reviewing
the
case
for
deploying
LTE
in
1800
MHz,
it
is
important
to
evaluate
it
in
the
context
of
an
operators
overall
spectrum
portfolio
and
network
technology
strategy.
One
sample
illustration
on
how
to
exploit
spectrum
efficiently
can
be
seen
in
Figure
4
below.
Operators
have
two
practical
alternatives
of
how
to
use
their
1800
MHz
spectrum:
Continue
to
use
solely
for
GSM,
or
gradually
deploy
LTE
in
co-existence.
Provided
the
regulator
permits
technology
neutrality,
choosing
between
these
alternatives
is
essentially
a
commercial
decision.
The
route
an
operator
selects
is
largely
dependent
upon
the
access
to
and
amount
of
2.6
GHz
and
700/800
MHz
spectrum.
In
theory,
there
is
a
third
option
-
to
deploy
3G,
but
in
reality
operators
have
not
chosen
to
deploy
3G
in
the
1800
MHz
band
and
the
device
ecosystem
is
currently
not
supporting
such
a
choice.
In
the
long
run,
as
3G
will
eventually
be
phased
out,
operators
can
start
to
reuse
the
900
MHz
spectrum
for
LTE.
The
time
frame
is
uncertain,
but
in
the
future
LTE
900
MHz
will
catch
up
with
LTE
1800
Mhz.
Operators
may
also
re-allocate
GSM
traffic
between
900
and
1800
MHz
in
order
to
continue
serving
existing
GSM
customers
while
reusing
spectrum
in
these
bands
for
new
technologies.
These
are
of
course
simplified
examples,
and
in
reality
the
options
are
manifold,
driven
by
spectrum
assets.
Operators
choices
will
be
based
on
a
combination
of
the
regulatory
situation,
the
market
needs,
and
the
existing
as
well
as
potential
spectrum
allocations.
But
in
the
end,
having
the
flexibility
of
choosing
the
optimal
technology
for
any
and
all
spectrum
assets
allows
operators
to
focus
on
the
commercial
aspects
and
satisfying
customer
demand
and
growth.
Urban Suburban Rural
4.
4.1. LTE 1800 MHz devices and chipsets The high spectrum flexibility and adaptability of LTE is not only an advantage - the flipside is the challenge for device and chipset vendors. There is widespread industry acknowledgement that multi-band multi-mode devices that can seamlessly operate in various modes (such as LTE FDD, LTE TDD, GSM, HSPA/and or CDMA EV DO as well as Wi-Fi and GPS) and in multiple frequency bands are needed in order to ensure smooth services both in all situations in the home country and when roaming internationally. We are still at the early stages of LTE, and although more than half of the LTE mobile devices support only a single band, theres still an encouraging (ca.) 20% which are dual band and over 25% support three bands or more.17 There are strong reasons to believe that devices will increasingly carry multi-band chipsets. Technology development has allowed chipsets and devices to support greater ranges of both multi-mode and multi- band systems. Even though it is technically possible to include everything, in reality device vendors are facing the decision of how many combinations of technologies and frequency bands to incorporate in a single device. The trade-off is typically the physical size of the device, the BoM, the power consumption and possibly also performance degradations. Nevertheless, the advancements in chipsets and devices have been impressive and, it is expected that the 1800 MHz band will be widely supported in most LTE devices. In fact, the availability of devices supporting LTE 1800 MHz is rapidly increasing. Even though most LTE network launches so far have been in the 2600 and 700 MHz bands, ca. 20%18 of all the LTE devices available on the market today are LTE 1800 MHz compatible19.
LTE$1800$MHz$Devices$
Smartphone' 8%' Tablet' 4%' Router' 32%' Module' 26%' Dongles' 30%'
700/800 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz 2100 MHz 2600 MHz
16
17
Based on data from Ericsson, Mobile Broadband in 1800 MHz spectrum, Jul 2011
16
Informa, Aug 2011, A global analysis of LTE spectrum requirements and business models 18 If devices targeted for the US market (700 MHz band devices mainly single band) are excluded, the percentage of LTE 1800 devices is much higher (ca. 40%) 19 GSA, Jan 2012, Report: Status of the LTE Ecosystem
One
challenge
with
respect
to
smartphones
has
been
to
merge
3G
and
4G
into
a
single
chipset,
which
would
overcome
some
of
the
shortcomings
above.
Manufacturers
(e.g.
HTC
with
Thunderbolt)
have
had
to
strike
a
balance
between
the
design
and
size
in
order
to
allocate
a
separate
space
for
an
LTE
chipset.
In
addition
to
the
phone
size,
battery-life
is
also
affected.
Nevertheless,
leading
device
vendors
such
as
Samsung
have
launched
smartphones
supporting
LTE
and
the
volumes
are
increasing.
Chipset
vendors
are
already
offering
solutions
that
enable
dual
mode
HSPA
and
LTE
1800
MHz
(Qualcomm,
for
example).
In
the
past
year
the
LTE
device
range
has
more
than
ten
folded20.
Given
that
the
proportion
of
LTE
1800
MHz
capable
devices
has
increased
within
the
overall
growth
in
LTE
devices,
and
given
the
operator
interest,
it
is
fair
to
assume
that
support
for
1800MHz
in
LTE
devices
will
become
standard,
thus
supporting
the
adoption
of
1800
MHz
as
a
major
band
for
LTE.
4.2. End-user
data
services
As
the
final
component
in
the
key
enablers,
end-user
services
play
an
important
part
in
driving
the
LTE
ecosystem
forward.
As
the
digital
lifestyle
continues
to
evolve,
devices
become
more
sophisticated
and
the
networks
become
capable
of
further
increased
data
rates,
the
services
get
more
advanced,
faster
and
data-intense.
Unlike
the
2G
to
3G
transition,
the
3G
to
LTE
will
be
subtler
for
the
end
users
and
mainly
at
least
initially
visible
in
the
form
of
improved
versions
of
the
services
consumed
over
3G
networks.
The
key
improvements
end- users
will
experience
with
services
on
LTE
networks
will
be
the
lower
latency
and
greater
data
speeds,
qualities
that
are
especially
beneficial
to,
for
example,
video
based
services
and
gaming.
But
the
mere
existence
of
LTE
will
also
create
momentum
for
new
and
innovative
services
that
exploit
the
capabilities
of
LTE,
to
be
introduced
both
by
operators
and
OTT
(Over-the-top)
providers.
As
forecasted
by
Cisco21,
already
before
LTE
becomes
widely
available,
mobile
data
traffic
will
predominantly
come
from
mobile
video
oriented
services.
According
to
Cisco,
mobile
video
will
generate
71%
of
mobile
data
traffic
by
2015,
followed
by
mobile
browsing
at
20%.
With
an
increased
LTE
penetration,
there
will
be
both
a
push
and
a
pull
effect
on
that
trend.
Informa
surveys18
also
confirm
the
forecast
that
the
greatest
traffic
volumes
on
LTE
networks
will
come
from
video
(incl.
streaming
and
downloads).
Mobile'Data'Services'in'2016'
Mobile'M2M' 4.7%' Mobile'File'Sharing' 3.3%' Mobile'Gaming' Mobile'VoIP' 1.1%' 0.3%'
Even though today 3G can accommodate comparable data rates to LTE (when deployed in small bandwidth), going forward the greater efficiency of LTE networks will provide good opportunities for the evolution of a range of other services that exploit and benefit from the lower latency and increased data rates. Subsequently, LTE Advanced will be the real differentiator, bringing along tremendous opportunities for end-user services. Look out for a future white paper on this topic 5. Future considerations and conclusions While the industry has endorsed LTE as the next cellular technology, one of the biggest uncertainties lies in the spectrum availability and the potential fragmentation of LTE spectrum. The EU, as well as the FCC with their flexible refarming policy, have given their support to the technology agnostic use of spectrum. Operators need this in order to proceed with commercial LTE deployments and even more to exploit LTE-A for that matter. While 2.6 GHz has been the most popular spectrum band for the initial LTE launches, there are convincing indications that 1800 MHz will gain strong interest as it offers significant savings in network costs due to its better coverage capabilities. Nonetheless, most regions will need to use combinations of spectrum, whether due to economics, spectrum availability or legislation. 1800 MHz will be one of the key LTE bands in the future as almost half of the operators globally are already in possession of spectrum in this band. With flexible and speedy regulatory adaptations this resource can be very instrumental for an efficient LTE deployment and growth. Operators are keen to deploy LTE as the current networks are struggling to cope with the increasing data usage. Smooth transitions from one technology generation to another have always been challenging for the industry. 7
Pyramid
Research,
Jan
2012,
LTE
Devices
and
Applications
Cisco,
Feb
2012,
Cisco
VNI:
Global
Mobile
Data
Traffic
Forecast
Update,
2011
2016
20 21
This
time,
having
not
only
one
but
two
generations
of
legacy
technologies,
whose
services
need
to
be
maintained
for
quite
an
extended
period,
the
complexity
increases
significantly.
Regulators
can
remove
a
potential
bottleneck
by
promptly
and
justly
refarming
and
reallocating
the
spectrum
resources.
In
the
end,
the
flexibility
of
combining
spectrum
bands
and
technologies
to
satisfy
market
needs
is
principal
to
reap
the
growth
opportunities.
By
speeding
up
the
regulatory
processes
the
telecommunications
market
as
a
whole
could
seize
this
opportunity
and
benefit
from
what
LTE
technology
can
offer.
About
Northstream
Founded
in
1998,
Northstream
is
an
experienced
management
consulting
firm
providing
strategic
business
and
technology
advice
to
the
global
telecom
and
media
industries.
We
help
our
clients
through
independent
and
objective
analyses,
advice,
problem
solving
and
support
that
are
tailor-made
to
our
clients
situation.
Our
work
is
based
on
a
well-balanced
combination
of
innovation,
industry
best
practices
and
in-house
methodologies.
Northstream
typically
works
with:
Business
strategy
development
and
planning
Strategic
sourcing
of
systems
and
services
Technology
&
product
strategy
evaluation
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review,
optimization
and
support
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analysis
and
due
diligences
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