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Global

Strategy

Global
Challenges
Executable
Solutions

France Houdard
Managing Director
france.houdard@exolus.com
April 2011
2011 Exolus.

//

12

160,000

2011 Exolus.

1.

3.

IT

HR

/
/

2.
2011 Exolus.

1:
+ + / + +

65 2% - 2.4%)20101.11
5542% 0 - 148%

9240
1734260

1/3

2009 20118500

10

2012(13)

2011 Exolus.

1.1:

2020 GDP*

GDP* -adjusted

-27

$29.6

$28.8

$13.4

$6.8

$30.0
GDP* -adjusted

2009 GDP*

-27

6,4

trillions

de $

$14.1
2011 Exolus.

$9.1

3,6

trillions Japan
de $
$4.1

$3.8

$14.2
: 4

1.1 :
:

4(2010) -

5(2015)

900
822
800

756

607

500

> US$107,800

90

US$53,900 - 107,800

531

53

170

400
300

99

684

700
600

355

461

525

US$21,501 53,900

239
255

200

157
106

100
0

2005

2010F

2015F

2020F

73
35

US$13,500 21,500

< US$13,500

2025F

2011 Exolus.

2007MGI2008

1.1 :

(-)

( - )

> 40,000
30,000 - 40,000

25,000 - 30,000
20,000 -25,000

17,500 - 20,000
0 - 17,500

2011 Exolus.

1.1 :

(2005 2020f)

3500
249%

3000

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

2011 Exolus.

: ,

1.2 :


2000650.87 20101.12 20503.4
14
( % )

65
(%)

40%

40%
36%

35%

35%

30%

30%

28%
25%

25%

25%

23%

21%
20%

19%

18%

20%
17%

19%

16%

15%

15%

15%
12%

10%

10%

8%
7%

5%

5%

0%

0%
1980

1990

2011 Exolus.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

5%

1980

5%

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

: Jean-Paul Rodrigue ; Exolus

1.3

1/3

9240

1734260

2011 Exolus.

: Jean-Paul Rodrigue

1.4:

8500

(2009 2011)

2000290005000

2009

2011 Exolus.

10

1.5 : 2012
108 2012

(UCMS)

2011 Exolus.

1998

2008

2012f

0.25

2.5

0.25

11

13.5

z
z

BMI

: ,, 11

2. :

10 20

( )

16,000

14

14,625

14,000
12

12,000
10

10,335
10,000

8,000
6

6,000
4

4,000
2

2,000

1,235

1,040

780

650
0

: / / /

2011 Exolus.

12

+ +

(-)

> 40,000

30,000 - 40,000
25,000 - 30,000
20,000 -25,000
17,500 - 20,000

0 - 17,500

2011 Exolus.

13

3. :

(R&D)?
R

(#)

, D

()

> 10
> 50

> 150

2011 Exolus.

: UNCTAD, WIR

14

3. :

R&D
Centers

(#(#)
Operations)

> 10
> 50

> 150

2011 Exolus.

: UNCTAD, WIR

15

3. :

(#)

()

> 10
> 50

> 150

Wage
Bands

Mega-Corridors

2011 Exolus.

: 16

2011 Exolus.

17

14
(2009 2011)
%
60

50

40

30

20

10

2011 Exolus.

France

Poland

Mexico

Vietnam

Canada

Indonesia

Australia

Germany

U.K.

Russia

Brazil

India

United States

China

2009 - 2011 18

-
20101,060

(1990 2010)
800
700

600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2011 Exolus.

19

-
2.85

2090 199740-50%
20076%.

20091.420082010
1.22009

20102.85

2.85

1997-1%2007+4.3%

38%

10

2011 Exolus.

20


,, ,
Exolus: Exolus

Exolus2040

Exolus at: www.exolus.com


: info@exolus.com
: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
2011 Exolus.

21

Exolus

2011 Exolus.

22

2011 Exolus.
2011 Exolus.

23

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