Probability

1. Introduction By grade 8, probability is a topic that is just briefly touched on in terms of curriculum requirements. In grade 7 students learn the basic terminology for probability and statistics (median, mode, mean, etc.) and conduct experiments that see how recorded events compare to statistical predictions with independent events. In grade 8 they are simply expected to be able to solve problems involving the probability of independent events. Although probability is only briefly touched on in the curriculum, and will not show up much on math contests, it is worthwhile to look into with a bit more depth just because it can help with building stronger logic skills. The problem with learning probability is that there is a lot of room for building knowledge on misconceptions, which is what we want to avoid. We can look at a few examples of probability misconceptions just from a simple coin-flipping question. One common misconception is that since the probability of flipping heads is 0.5 and 0.5 for tails, if I flip a heads with the first coin, I am more likely to flip a tails on my next flip. This misconception comes from not fully understanding the idea that the events are independent, and what the implications are of events being independent. Another misconception that follows this same type of problem comes from flipping two coins simultaneously. It is easy for students to think that since the possible outcomes are HH, HT, and TT, each is equally likely to occur with a probability of 1/3. Why this is false can be quickly explained to students, but they need methods for counting outcomes when the problems have more outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, what is the probability that the two numbers add up to 8? For this type of problem, students really need a method of being able to count the desired outcomes and the total number of outcomes. Using the table to the left it is easy to see that the probability of rolling numbers that add to 8 is 5/36. Without a method for counting outcomes, a student could easily make the mistake of saying (6,2), (5,3), and (4,4) are the outcomes, and so the probability is 3/36 or 1/12. Another way that independent events can be misinterpreted is assuming that the probability of a specific event occurring is more or less likely, when in fact they are equal. For example, if six dice are rolled, a student might make the mistake of assuming that 1,2,3,4,5,6 is more likely to occur than 1,1,1,1,1,1 because each

number has a one-in-six chance of occurring, when in fact both outcomes are equally likely. Problems involving choosing an item at random can be the source of confusion for students also, such as picking a specific color marble at random from a bag where you know the how many marbles of each color there are. For example, there are 2 green marbles and 3 yellow ones in a bag, what is the probability of choosing a green one if you choose it at random? Students are prone to saying 2/3 when they are used to having all of the information necessary for solving the problem given to them in the question. Students need to understand that they are looking to count the number of ways they can get the desired outcome, and the total number of outcomes. Imagine two bags, one with 7 green marbles and 3 yellow ones, and the other with 13 green marbles and 7 yellow ones. Another mistake that students can easily make is assuming that the probability of picking a green marble is greater with the second bag than with the first because there are more green marbles in the second one. This is false because the ratio of green to yellow marbles is lower in the second bag than the first. It is very easy to make this mistake, but by carefully looking at the problem, students should be able to rationalize why it is a mistake. But they cannot learn from that mistake if they do not make it, and so the key to developing a sense for probability with advanced students is to give them problems that will challenge them in areas where misconceptions are likely to occur.

2. Sample Problems 1) If you roll two six-sided dice, what is the probability that the numbers add up to 8 or more? What is the probability of them adding up to 8 if you roll 3 sixsided dice? This question really challenges the student to think of a logical way of making sure that all the outcomes are accounted for. The next question also requires some logical thinking to account for every outcome, although in a different setting: 2) Four people come to a three-way stop at separate times. The have the choice of going left, right, or straight. None of them have a preference and so choose a direction at random. What is the probability that each direction is taken at least once? These types of problems are also great for giving students a sense for how easy it is to accidentally miss some outcomes: 3) 10 points are evenly placed around a circle. You want to draw lines so that each point touches every other point. How many lines will be drawn? 4) How many squares can you count in the picture to the right? 5) A dresser has 5 shirts in it: a blue one, a black one, a white one, and two green ones. a) You stick your hand in and pick shirt at random and then put it back. You pick another one at random. What is the probability that the shirt was green both times? b) You stick your hand in and pull out a shirt at random without looking at its color and set it aside. You pull out another shirt at random. What is the probability that it is black? c) You stick your hand in and pull out two shirts at the same time. What is the probability that they are both green? This problem is great because it looks at how the number of outcomes can change within the context of the same problem. Question b also draws on the misconception that the first shirt pulled out will affect the outcome. 6) You flip 2 fair coins at the same time, one with the left hand and one with the right hand. Explain which outcome is more likely to occur in each case: a) One coin comes up heads and the other comes up tails, or both come up heads.

b) The coin in your left hand comes up tails and the other comes up heads, or both come up tails. 3. Resources 1) http://www.btwaters.com/probab/probab.html A few interesting, yet fairly simple probability games, that allow students to quickly compare recorded results with any sample size to expected results

2) http://jwilson.coe.uga.edu/EMT668/EMAT6680.Folders/Dickerson/probabi lity/titled.html Website goes a bit more in-depth on probability than the grade 8 curriculum, but stays in the realm of what middle school students are capable of learning Easy to understand and well organized

3) http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/independent_events.html A few good variations on independent event probability problems

4) http://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/independent-dependentprobability Website has a good selection of interactive problems with only independent events Also has a vast selection of similar interactive probability problems on more advanced topics so that students can move on to compound or dependent events if they are ready Very well organized and easy to follow