Professional Documents
Culture Documents
πετρελαια Αιγαιου
πετρελαια Αιγαιου
/ 2009
: 7
() . /
()
-
()
,
, /
/ , .
/ , . /
,
, . &
,
/
,
/ ,
, ,
, , ,
,
,
,
29, 55134
. 2310 472603, FAX 2310 471710
e-mail: grammateia@adispo.auth.gr
:
.
, ,
, , ,
, .
.
, , .
.
.
- ,
4000 .
,
.
.
,
: , , , , .
.
.
.
, .
() /
-
. , ,
,
' ,
.
,
,
, .
. ,
,
.
,
' .
,
,
.
,
.
()
. /
.
8
.
52
62
. ,
:
. /
33
-
.
75
.
41
.
.
. /
82
. /
23
101
2008
101
,
&
10 5 -106
103
2008
107
109
110
110
2008
. - & . .
. / 26 2008
,
, "
NA -
. ".
,
,
.
,
.
,
20,
21
.
:
"
.
"
..
"
.
"
,
.
"
.
"
.
"
.
.
,
.
,
.
4
, ,
, ,
.
.
,
, ,
.
,
, .
. ,
,
.
' ,
. ,
.
.
.
,
,
.
,
,
,
3,
,
.
-
.
.
, .
.
, .
,
,
,
, .
,
.
, ,
.
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, .
,
,
.
,
,
,
, .
, , ,
. ,
, , .
, , ,
,
, ,
. ,
, , .
. .
,
:
20 -
, . ,
, , , ,
- ,
, ,
, ,
, -
, ,
- .
, ,
.
28 , .
", , 40,
, , ,
, , .
, , ;
. ,
,
,
, ,
,
- , .
,
- .
, ,
, 2025, 2025
, . ;
2025 .
,
,
.
, ,
.
. ,
.
, ,
.
.
. . ,
,
. . .
. /
:
.
:
(Geopolitical Complex):
,
:
1.
(Geopolitical factor)
()
- (, , )
-
.
'
. "" ...,
, .. ( .. Finul II,
, 2006).
,
, :
2.
(Geopolitical Supersystem)
o ...-- .
3.
(Geopolitical Systems)
: i) -, ii) -, iii)
-, iv) - v) -.
:
1.
(Systemic Dipole): -
T I 2001
I
M
.
P
O
. ,
,
(6-02-2001) I.
.
,
, . O
" A" T:
93%
,
, A I
7%
.
, :
(1)
- -,
1967, , . ,
, .
(2)
9
,
" ",
" "
,
, .
- ,
Z. Brzezinski,
, Rob Malley1 Samantha Power2
, , ,
, .
2.
: -, -, -, -
.
(Systemic Data)
: I
, A I
3 1.200 m2 18.000
, ,
1967
1981.
:
1.
..:
. Robert Malley ( 1963)
,
, I.C.G..
International Crisis Group (I.C.G.) Washington, D.C.,
- .
Sandy Berger (19961998). O Malley -
' .
, 2000.
.
2.
..: Samantha Power 1970.
, Carr Center
for Human Rights Policy Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
2008,
"" , .
- .
3.
..:
: " / .
''", , ..., - 2004,
6, ..: 14-17.
10
, K K E K,
, . T ,
- ,
. .
. ,
...,
, ,
.
...
.
-
:
,
:
(1)
H , 2001,
, ,
4
20065,
..
.
4.
,
60km
,
. 33%
.
(,
)
.
5.
..:
" - " 2006,
12.000 .
, 7-8.000
107 122mm.
,
" ".
107mm ,
(
ASEB, )
(5) . 122mm
20 45
. 70
R, HADID AWASH. To 2000,
-,
11
(.../I.D.F),
-
" "
. ,
,
..
UNIFIL II.
6.
1701
...
,
Unifil II
7.
(2)
H
,
. ,
, ,
,
.
Fajr 3 2002 Fajr 5,
2006. ,
, . .
I. Th. Mazis, "A Geopolitical Analysis in the recent
Lebanon Crisis and the Broader Implications (Summer
2006)", Schriftenreihe der Landesverteidigungsa
kademie, 8/2007, Wien, p. 153.
6.
I. Th. Mazis, "The Geostrategic Lessons
Learned from a Conflict: Israel-Hezbollah", Defensor
Pacis, D.A.I., vol. 20, March 2007, p. 24.
7.
Security Council Calls For End To Hostilities
Between
Hizbollah, Israel,Unanimously Adopting
Resolution 1701 (2006), Permanent Ceasefire to Be
Based on Creation Of Buffer Zone Free of Armed
Personnel Other than UN, Lebanese Forces
(11/08/2006)
12
, ,
, .
.
...
.
.
: -
,
21
2008,
.
,
"
- 5
2008, [..:
,
],
,
. .
.
, ,
,
8.
.
Shas 9
10
2009
...
20 .
.
-
,
.
:
(1)
()
:
(2007)
/ ,
Al-Kibar.
,
Imad Moughnieh, (
Hajj
8.
. " Online", , 5
2008,, ' : "
"
, : "... .
,
. ""
,
".
9.
. "Israels sets February 10 as date for general elections", "Haaretz", 30 October 2008: .
Shas
. .
, . 10 2009.
13
Radwan) 12 2008,
. Imad Mughniyah
11:00 ..
, Kfar Suseh
.
,
Al-Kibar
' ', ' '
' ',
''
F-16
.
, ...
.
,
.
-
2004.
()
()
-
2004,
,
,
, 2000.
,
.
'
14
, ' ,
. '
,
,
-
.
10
.
. ,
.
,
,
'. ,
,
,
.
10.
1976, 30.000
'80, 15.000 2005.
(1975-1990).
2000
.
2004
(1559).
1989,
. , 13
1559
.
,
"
"
""
-
. ,
.
.
- ,
.
,
,
,
" ". ,
. Joe Biden
" AIPAC
".
,
2 " /cycle of violence". .
, ,
,
.
(2)
()
,
, (
)
. .
-,
, ,
?.H.D. ('
') Ergenekon, '
' 11
, .
()
,
11.
4 1952,
" /Seferberlik Taktik
Kurulu"
(JUS-MATT/CIA)
. To 1965
" / ?HD"
1990, Gladio.
.
(?zel Kuvvetler Komutanl???, . Selahattin
?ELIK, T?rkishe Kontrguerilla. Die Todesmachinerie,
Mesopotamien Verlag, K?ln 1999, p. 44 in D. Ganser,
, .-.
, Antilogos, 2007).
- "Stay Behind" alias
"Gladio"
...
"Overall Strategic Concepts" (
) 28 1949.
JSPC 891/6. Section "Tab
B",
... ("The
Origines of 'Gladio' in Turkey", Intelligence Newsletter,
19 December 1990., in D. Ganser, .. . 315).
15
. ,
. ,
,
,
,
.
-
.
(3)
()
.
-
,
.
(
,
16
) ( ,
).
.
,
,
.
( )
,
:
,
,
-, .
.
,
12.
,
, .
,
.
.
(Supersystemic Factor)
-
,
2003 ,
.
,
13.
,
,
( , 1982)14.
12.
. . . ,
, . ,
, 2008, .: 95-109
13.
. . ,
, 19921, . 230
, 20022, .167
14.
1982 ( 2/02/1982
25/02/1982)
.
10.000 25.000
,
,
,
26 2005.
- , .
... ,
-.
(1)
...-
. - -
:
()
- .
()
.
$USA 60 (
$USA 150)
..
.
,
1970.
()
"" ""
.
""
" "
, .
, ... (!) , ... ,
" ".
17
.
()
(
)
.
,
.
:
.
,
.
,
,
-
, . Denis
Ross,
18
,
, ,
,
, , .
,
,
()
( )
.
,
,
: -
,
""
. ,
-
-
!
...
,
. Dennis Ross,
.
,
. , Ross
.
""; Ross
.
: "...With regard to the
Iranians, we know that by not talking to Iran
the U.S. did not improve the situation. Today
"
"
"
"
Taef17
1559 ..18. ,
-
.
, ,
"
"
, .
,
,
17.
The Taef Agreement 1989: D). [...] Third, liberating Lebanon from the Israeli occupation: Regaining
state authority over the territories extending to the internationally-recognized Lebanese borders requires the
following: A. Efforts to implement resolution 425 and the
other UN Security Council resolutions calling for fully
eliminating the Israeli occupation.
18.
La Resolution 1559 du Conseil de s? curit?, de
l'O.N.U. (2/09/2004): Le Conseil de s? curit?, [...] (iii).
Demande que toutes les milices libanaises et non
libanaises soient dissoutes et d? sarm? es; (iv).Soutient
l'extension du contr? le exerc? par le Gouvernement
libanais ? l'ensemble du territoire du pays;
19
, ,
" " .
" "
,
, .
""
-
-,
.
,
-
2004 .
.
:
.
, ,
, .
1.
20
2.
-
,
, ,
.
-
. , .
,
19.
-
,
, ,
.
19.
2008,
: . . . ,
, . ,
, 2008, . 89 : "
--
,
,
.
.
:
... ;".
. .:101-109, 58- 85 8995.
3.
:
.
.
( -).
.
,
,
,
, .
.
,
,
.
, .
,
,
,
.
,
,
, ,
.
4.
.
.
2008, ...-.
- - ,
.
: ,
,
--
. "
-2003"
.
"",
-
,
1996
.
.
:
-
. :
"
" "
".
- ,
/ ,
21
,
.
.
, .
5.
-
,
. ,
-
" /two states solution".
22
,
...
.
(
) ,
.
H ,
,
""
.
, ...
-
.
-
,
, .
.
, .
. . /
""
. "" ,
. ,
,
.
,
. , ,
,
, ""
,
.
-
" ",
() .
""
" " , ,
.
, "".
.
, , ,
. , , .
, ,
"" "" .
23
, ,
""
"" .
""
, ,
, ,
,
, , .
""
,
,
(
). .
, ""
"" ,
,
- ,
, .
.
, , -
.
, " ",
.
, ,
""
"" .
, , ,
, ,
" "...
,
24
,
. ,
( ...),
.
. ,
: .
,
, .
, ,
. ,
,
.
.
,
,
,
,
.
(),
"
- ".
""
""1.
, ""
.
-
25
,
.
""
.
,
2003,
,
""
.
.
,
.
,
, ,
.
.
, ,
4 ,
""
. ,
,
,
2.
26
,
,
,
,
. ,
,
.
, "" , ,
"" ,
" ".
,
.
.
, ,
.
, , (
...),
,
, "" ""
.
,
,
,
,
.
, , ,
.
" "
,
.. ,
,
, .
, ,
,
.
,
,
.
'' - !
,
,
.
,
,
.
,
27
.
.
Rimland,
,
''
. ,
,
,
,
Rimland
.
,
,
,
28
.
.
''
,
.
,
.
,
!
.
,
. ,
.
.
.
. ,
.
.
,
. ,
,
. -
;
. ,
.
"",
""
.
,
.
;
.
,
,
. ,
''
.
, ,
,
, , ,
.
. .
;
, ,
,
"
",
. '
(!).
,
,
,
. ,
.
29
,
,
.
. ,
.
,
,
, , -
30
, (...),
.
,
, ,
...
,
.
, , ,
,
.
,
,
,
,
, .
,
Firtina,
.
,
.
.
,
,
3.
()
,
.
,
,
,
4.
, ,
LORA5.
,
.
,
, ,
.
()
,
,
...
(*)
. .
1.
,
.. "
", .
:
2.
1) Jane's Defence Weekly, 7 May 2003, 2. "US
moves towards more flexible global basing". Kim Burger.
2) Jane's Defence Weekly, 7 May 2003, 8. "US
Navy floats lighter - than - air transport concept". Michael
Sirak & Kim Burger.
3.
"Chinese Views of Future
Warfare", ""
,
"" . ,
,
, ,
,
.
: " 21 ",
, 1999.
4.
,
,
DF - 15 (CSS - 6) 600
DF - 21 (CSS - 5),
(MRB) 2.150,
2.500 DF - 21A (CSS - 5 Mod 2),
90.
" " (reentry
vehicles),
(Maneuvering re - entry vehicles / MaRV),
, ,
.
(Office of Naval Intelligence),
.
31
(stress
hardening) .
. ,
(Over - The - Horizon / OTH),
.
2009
(
)
.
Kornet NPO
Machinostroyenia,
. ""
,
.
OTH
UAV ,
- .
32
. . /
. ,
:
(HIZBULLAH) 1
i.
H
(Hizbullah)
2. ,
,
.
3
"" (Aknclar) 4. ""
, 1970.
""
,
, uyuk Dogu - IBDA ( ),
"".
-
.
, -A .
, "" ( )
"" ( ).
(Huseyn Velioglu) 5.
1.
, .
2.
" ".
3.
.
4.
"" "".
5.
. Rusen Cakr, Derin Hizbullah: Islamc Siddetin
Gelecegi, Metis Yaynlar, Istanbul 2001, 106. , ,
1983 ,
- . 1984.
. ., 112. . Rusen Cakr, Ayet ve Slogan: Turkiye'de Islami Olusumlar, Metis Yaynlar, stanbul (9 )
2002, 165.
33
,
,
6,
.
ii. E
,
.
1980 , (Menzil)
(lim).
, . ,
. , -
, 7.
.
( )
1990.
1990 -
,
- .
,
- "-" , .
,
8.
(Hizb-ul Kontra) (Kontra),
.
" "
- .
Rainer Hermann (
) 1991-9 "
,
.
6.
Rainer Hermann, Die drei Versionen des politischen Islam in der Turkei, ORIENT, 37. Jahrgang,
Nr. 1, Marz 1996, 54.
7.
.
8.
. ., 55. . . , -
, , 2000, 138.
34
"9.
, ( )
.
,
10.
- ,
. ,
, , , , , ,
( ), ,
11.
iii. ,
12. -
-
-
13.
, "
, "
14.
, : - ,
- , 15 - , - ,
.
,
,
: , 16,
, 17.
, 18.
" "
, ,
.
9.
Rainer Hermann, "Political Islam in Secular Turkey", Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations, Vol. 14,
No. 3, July 2003, 274.
10.
.
11.
. Rusen Cakr, Derin Hizbullah: Islamc Siddetin Gelecegi, Metis Yaynlar, stanbul
2001, 133-6.
12.
. ., 139-40.
13.
. ., 113.
14.
,
2000. . . ., 97.
15.
.
, , ,
, .
16.
dar al-Islam, darulislam.
17.
Rusen Cakr, Derin , . ., 97.
18.
. ., 98-9.
35
Rusen Cakr "
,
"21.
,
.
"
",
, ()
(
)19.
,
: "
.
.
"20.
(
)
, ,
.
, .
19.
20.
36
. ., 99-104.
. ., 103.
22.
"
"
23.
.
.
.
.
"
".
21.
Rusen Cakr, Ayet ve Slogan: Turkiye'de Islami
Olusumlar, Metis Yaynlar, stanbul (9 ) 2002,
168.
22.
- ,
1996. Muslim Institute
1972, 1989 Muslim
Parliament.
.
23.
. ., 168. 1987
Sehadet,
.
, .
.
.
.
24.
iv.
"" :
.
2000.
,
,
,
1999.
2000
2000 ,
25.
2000,
600026.
.
24.
(Sehadet).
25.
Emrullah Uslu, "From Local Hizbollah to
Global Terror: Militant Islam in Turkey", Middle East
Policy, Vol. XIV, No. 1, Spring 2007, 125.
26.
. ., 128.
20.000 .
,
().
(Isa Altsoy)
, ,
,
27.
,
-
,
,
'
,
" "28.
,
2004 "
: ",
, 29.
,
27.
.
28.
..
(Emrullah Uslu),
.
'
,
. ,
.
29.
Emrullah Uslu, "From ", . ., 131.
,
.
Bagasi.
37
,
.
30.
, -
-
"
"31.
2000,
"
" 32.
,
"" ,
2000.
,
2000
, ,
,
,
.
33.
30.
.
31.
: "
,
". . ., 132.
,
,
.
32.
. Rusen Cakr, Derin , . .,
176-7.
33.
. Emrullah Uslu, "From ", .
., 136.
38
34.
,
,
,
2003,
.
, ,
.
( .. )
(..
, , .).
,
35,
, .
"
" -
.
,
,
(.. , - )36.
,
,
( ).
34.
. "Basbakanlk: Hizbullah'a dikkat!",
RADIKAL, 19.06.2007.
35.
Emrullah Uslu, "From ", . ., 188-9.
36.
. ., 189.
""
"
",
37.
,
( )
38.
,
39.
,
,
2003 .
2003
( ) ,
(
HSBC)
60 .
"
",
"
37.
. Rusen Cakr, Derin , . ., 180
200-1.
38.
- -
:
, , - -
. . ., 195-9.
39.
. Emrullah Uslu, "From ", . ., 137.
"40.
() ,
- ,
. ,
,
41.
, "" ,
"
" 42.
""
,
,
,
40.
Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern
(Hrsg.), Verfassungsschutzbericht 2003, Munchen
2004, 179.
41.
Emrullah Uslu, "From ", . ., 124.
42.
Rusen Cakr, Ayet , . ., 165.
39
" "
43.
v.
.
44.
,
( 2000- 2007)
15.000
, -
, .
bdulkadir ksu
"
"45.
,
(
2007)
, , , , , , , ,
.
,
, , 43.
( ) :
" " ( )
" "
(, , ).
"
,
1990". Emrullah Uslu, "From ",
. ., 125.
44.
. ,
": " ",
, 22.12.2006, . 15, "Ba?bakanl?k:
Hizbullah'a dikkat!", RAD?KAL, 19.06.2007.
45.
. "Aksu: 15.000 Hizbullah members arrested
in 7 years", ,
08.03.2007.
40
, ,
,
-
.
,
46.
i.
Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern
(Hrsg.), Verfassungsschutzbericht 2003, Munchen
2004
Rusen Cakr, Derin Hizbullah: slamc
Siddetin Gelecegi, Metis Yaynlar, stanbul 2001
Rusen Cakr, Ayet ve Slogan: Turkiye'de
slami Olusumlar, Metis Yaynlar, stanbul (9
) 2002
Rainer Hermann, "Die drei Versionen des
politischen Islam in der Turkei", ORIENT, 37.
Jahrgang, Nr. 1, Marz 1996, 35-57.
Rainer Hermann, "Political Islam in
Secular Turkey", Islam and Christian-Muslim
Relations, Vol. 14, No. 3, July 2003, 265-76.
. ,
-
, ,
2000.
Emrullah Uslu, "From Local Hizbollah to
Global Terror: Militant Islam in Turkey", Middle East
Policy, Vol. XIV, No. 1, Spring 2007, 124-41.
": "
", 22.12.2006, . 15.
"Aksu: 15.000 Hizbullah members arrested
in 7 years", ( ),
08.03.2007.
"Basbakanlk:
Hizbullah'a
dikkat!",
RADKAL ( ), 19.06.2007.
46.
"Basbakanlk: Hizbullah'a dikkat!", RADIKAL,
19.06.2007.
.
.
.
,
.
;
,
,
1990
.
1993, .
, ,
.
,
. ,
,
. PAX Europeana.
PAX Romana, PAX Othomanica PAX Americana
.
, .
" ".
,
, ,
.
, ,
" " 600.000 ,
( )
. ,
,
" ", ,
, .
41
, "
", "
".
.
.
.
,
,
,
,
,
.
. -
.
,
, ( )
.
; ;
, - ( Brasov
Bacau) . ,
, .
, (
),
,
. , -
42
.
.
, ;
. .
.
,
.
(,
), de facto
. .
(
-iraspol),
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
. "
".
, .
,
.
.
, .
. .
, , "",
"".
' .
,
.
,
,
, ,
.
, ,
.
.
,
43
.
.
GUAM (, ,
)
. '
.
.
.
.
.
" "
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
, .
-
44
1244 -
,
,
. , .
.
,
,
.
: "
". ,
, .
.
,
(
, , ,
),
-;
. .
.
;
.
.
, .
SOUTH STREAM,
.
,
.
.
,
.
, ,
.
: "
,
, ,
".
,
. ,
,
.
. ,
.
.
.
.
.
, .
; .
. , ,
,
.
;
. ,
,
,
, ,
.
.
,
.
,
(00381).
(00377).
.
.
,
,
.
,
.
" "
EULEX.
.
;
.
.
, .
.
1244
.
.
,
.
. ,
.
" ".
.
" ,
",
" "
.
.
.
.
. ;
.
,
45
.
;
; ,
.
, , ,
;
; business. .
.
.
,
, .
; ,
business.
UCK ; .
,
.
;
,
.
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
. 28
,
. (
),
.
.
.
46
.
.
.
.
" ".
.
,
,
.
;
, ,
,
.
. .
.
;
.
; "
".
;
.
.
.
.
.
;
, .
,
" "
,
.
.
.
,
.
imperium. .
, ,
.
1990-1992
,
.
.
.
, .
;
()
.
.
2017,
.
.
. ,
. ,
...
.
. ,
,
.
.
.
.
.
,
19
, " ".
.
. .
; ,
.
, 19
47
.
,
.
.
.
,
,
,
.
,
.
.
, .
. ,
"
",
FYROM.
,
48
FYROM
.
,
...
.
; ,
.
FYROM.
.
.
.
.
,
14
.
.
" ".
, .
"
".
.
; .
-
.
. .
, ,
, ,
,
.
.
:
.
,
.
; ' :
, ,
,
,
, .
.
,
.
.
, ,
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
;
.
.
;
;
.
.
,
.
FYROM,
.
;
.
,
.
.
, ,
. .
;
, .
, .
, .
, .
.
,
. ;
,
.
,
.
. 2009 60
.
,
"
".
.
.
. "
"
"" ,
, .
- , "
", .
,
.
.
;
: ,
,
.
. ,
.
.
.
,
de
facto . De facto, de jure,
,
.
"
". ;
.
49
;
. " ",
.
.
"
"
, ,
, .
" ".
" ";
"".
""; ;
; ;
"";
.
; "";
.
"";
.
""
. , ,
.
""
,
, ,
.
.
; "",
.
.
"
",
" ",
.
.
.
.
.
50
.
;
.
.
.
,
"".
.
..
,
.
,
,
. ,
,
,
,
,
.
.
,
.
: --
;
.
,
,
"
,
"
,
.
;
.
,
,
,
19 ,
,
,
.
.
.
,
, ,
, ,
, .
,
, S-400... ;
;
.
,
,
,
.
,
.
. 21 .
.
,
.
.
,
,
;
. .
100 ,
.
.
"
".
.
.
51
. . . &
Alfred Thayer Mahan,
,
,
"
". ,
" (
)"
,
Antoine Henri de Jomini Julian
Corbett, - , ,
- Paul Kennedy , , John
Mearsheimer, Mahan
.
Corbett, .., "
,
, ,
."
' , , "
". "
", - -
,
. John J.
Mearsheimer "
", :
" .
.
."
, , , . ,
, ' ,
. ,
52
.
.
'
.
( ,
, ):
"
, ,
() , ,
.
.
.
".
,
/
. 17 .
18 .,
,
, ,
/ ,
.
1713. ,
18 , .
- , 1740,
53
(1740-1748)
(17561763) -
,
, .
, 1815
- ,
/, .
,
,
,
19 .,
, / (
) .
, 1815 ,
( , ,
: - ),
,
,
.
( )
(
), ,
,
"" ""
' 19 .
, ' ,
"" (, , , ,
...).
,
" "
- ,
, 1850 -
54
: '
,
, ,
( -
-
).
(8/9 1855) ,
1856,
(
,
- 1774)
,
,
- "
", ,
,
.
,
(Otto von Bismarck,
1815-1898, K , 1862-1890,
, 1871-1890)
1871, / .
,
(Mitteleuropa),
55
(aiser)
(Wilhelm II von Hohenzollern,
1890-1914),
,
(Hochseeflotte)
(
,
, , ,
, , . )
.
,
(, ,
, )
, .
, .
( ,
)
, '
,
19 , , -
,
""
"",
"" ... (
, "The Illustrated
London News"
1855, :
"
( )..." ,
,
).
56
/
, , ,
/""
. '
, , (
)
(, ) 1941,
- -
(
)
.
,
.
. ,
, ; ,
,
- : '
, ,
,
. ,
: ""
"Balance-of-Power Policy",
( )
, .
, ' ,
, , ,
,
20 .
/
"Heartland", ""
" " ("World Island"),
-
: 1917, 1941
1947. ,
,
,
,
(, ) ,
.
,
,
(: ) , /
-
20 .,
(
)
.
, ,
-
Spykman - "Rimland" (
" "
"
")
.
,
- , , ,
, ,
, , .
,
,
,
,
,
-
-
, ,
.
. ,
,
, '
" ,
" -
,
, "-" ,
,
.
, ,
57
(interior lines)
" ",
("") ,
" "
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
"
" (Two-Sea Fleet),
,
. ,
( )
.
,
,
,
,
/
, ' , -
(
) ,
Graham, "
"!
,
,
( - )
, ' , ,
58
( )
,
... ,
,
-
(,
,
) ,
( ) , ,
(
) ,
, .
, ,
-
- , ,
. ' ,
, '
,
, ,
" "
.
,
, Eric
Grove
"". E , '
,
"
,
". ,
"
59
,
."
E ,
,
,
20 ..
5 ..
,
,
,
,
: ,
, (
), (
)
( )
-
60
" "
(
),
.
, ,
, ,
,
,
"
" -
.
' ,
Kennedy "imperial overstretch"
Mearsheimer . ,
,
'
""
"Kontinental-Denken"
(
) , ,
, ,
(
, /
) ,
, "
" .
.
,
- /
. -
Mearsheimer -
. ,
, .
,
,
:
, .
, ,
, , ,
.
Raeder
,
, ,
,
1942/43.
Kriegsmarine Royal Navy.
, Andreas Hillgruber
"
"
(Unternehmen "Barbarossa") , '
,
(
)
" " "",
1940,
. , "
" (Flucht nach vorne),
,
,
(strategische Einkreisung) -
-
.
,
, , ,
:
"
,
, ,
".
61
. M
/
.
,
.
,
.
' ,
.
,
.
.
.
,
,
status , .
, .
, .
19 . 1801 ,
,
. 19
.
19
.
1859 .
, ,
, .
,
1990,
,
, .
.
, , 19
.
1917,
. , ,
62
, 1918
,
, ,
. 1918 ,
.
.
. 1920
. 1920 1991 ,
.
,
.
.
. , " ",
.
.
71 ,
.
. 1987
,
. , ,
, ,
-
1980.
1991,
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
,
. , .
,
- ,
1990
( ).
,
.
. 65-68%
.
,
, 400.000.
' .
, ,
63
. .
.
.
.
.
,
.
,
,
.
, .
"".
. . .
.
.
,
,
.
.
,
. ,
,
.
1990
. .
.
.
. .
. .
,
specifica .
64
. ,
. ,
.
.
. , ,
.
, ,
, .
1990 .
. ,
. .
.
.
. ,
.
1994 ,
,
.
.
. .
.
.
, .
. 1979 - 1980
/ stinger
,
.
.
65
.
, 1994
.
.
1995-1997
. 11 2001,
,
.
1990
.
.
1990 ,
.
. 1990
.
.
.
66
1999 ,
.
2000 ,
.
2000 .
.
.
,
. 2001-2002.
,
" ".
.
11 2001
- . .
, .
.
.
. 2002, " "
, ,
. 2002 2008
.
. .
1997 de facto
. 81
.
, ,
, .
.
,
.
.
2002
2008, . 2003
, .
, .
.
67
. 2004
, ,
.
2004.
,
.
2006
.
.
.
.
68
,
,
.
;
;
.
1991-92
.
;
,
.
.
, ,
.
.
,
,
.
.
.
.
1994
.
1999-2001
.
2003
.
.
2003 2004
. 2008
.
2007 .
2008,
.
.
;
.
;
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
2008.
.
.
, 2000
,
, , ,
. 2004
.
,
,
.
,
.
69
,
,
.
" "
.
,
. .
.
.
,
.
(9 )
.
,
,
: " Rocky
".
,
100.000 - 150.000 .
.
' 250.000
, 65.000.
65.000;
500
500
500
.
,
.
,
1975
,
70
,
,
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
;
, ,
.
.
,
. .
350
,
.
.
,
.
Economist "
"
,
. ;
;
,
.
,
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
,
,
350.000
.
.
.
.
. 58
.
.
.
.
.
,
1.500.000
.
65
,
.
65
.
.
.
.
.
,
,
,
,
.
71
.
. . ;
; .
.
.
. 2 .
Fagot.
.
.
.
.
.
.
72
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
"
".
.
-
.
.
2017.
.
.
,
11 2001
,
.
. ,
.
;
;
.
,
.
,
,
.
.
.
.
20.000 .
. ,
.
.
,
.
.
.
, ,
1990
,
.
,
.
.
1970
.
.
15.000
" ", 1400.
1993-94
, .
250
.
200
,
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
,
,
,
.
.
73
.
,
.
.
.
,
,
,
modus vivendi.
.
.
"
.
;
.
.
".
74
.
.
.
, ,
,
(
).
, ,
.
' .
,
.
.
, .
.
,
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
. '
.
75
.
. ,
.
.
.
.
' ,
.
.
.
. .
76
. .
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
;
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
.
, .
.
. .
.
.
, , ,
,
,
,
,
, .
.
.
,
.
.
77
,
.
.
.
.
,
.
, .
,
,
.
,
.
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
78
.
.
,
.
.
,
,
,
,
15%
.
.
, 179
. 750
-
250
.
, ,
,
,
- .
. ,
, ,
, 5
,
,
,
.
,
.
- .
,
,
,
.
79
.
.
,
, ,
,
.
-
.
, ,
.
.
,
,
.
.
.
,
.
- .
.
.
,
.
80
,
,
' .
,
,
,
,
.
.
, .
.
.
.
.
'
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
81
. .
, '
54% 123
56 $ 2008.
51 .
14% . . , 12
2008,
(crude oil,
...=).
:
,
,
;
"'
, "!...
,
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
.
.
1.
, ,
, .
1,5
, "" - .
, ,
.
,
"".
, ,
82
" "
.
, "
" " "
, "
'
";
2.
, ,
.
,
,
. " "
.
,
,
, ,
- ,
.
20 ,
:
.
, 1850
,
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
, .
, "".
3.
, ,
.
, :
;
.
( "-")
, ... ...
.
,
;
83
.
- ...
(=).
3.
,
.
;
.
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
"", .
.
.
.
.
3 1944, ,
, ;
.
,
, ;
.
,
, ' ,
,
" "
, .
. .
,
. 2/3
.
.
75%
,
.(.. " ;" 2006.)
.
' " " .(16 .
2007) ,
( 2008).
84
,
. " " "". ,
1/3 ""
(12.4.08),
, , . , .
.
5.
, , , ,
(. ...
" " .)
, ,
.
.
, ':
.
, " "
....
.
,
.
.
,
.
.
, .
.
16 ,
(
).
.
19 , "
" ,
"",.
.
.
19 ,
,
(1897)
, (1877), - .
""
"" ,
...
.
20 ,
"",
85
.
.
1911 ,
"" ( "" )
, ' 1914.
.
(
)
...
.
,
1914
.
( 1917,
)
- ( . 1916
)
: , , (
1948 " ".
.
, (1914-18 193945). " "
.
(1991 & 2003)
'
"" .
.
. (..OIL
WARS, by Mary Kaldor,Terry Lynn
Karl & Yahia Said ,Pluto Press,
2007). :
.
.
.
""
(
, , , ) .
.
()
.
.
-
86
.
' ...
.
""
" ",
, (,
).
.
""
-.
.
.
" (Sic) ()
80% ' " (
25.4.2007 ).
6.
:
. ,
/, ( ,
).
-,
, .
/.
.
,
.
10 .
85
.
87
7.
21
,
:
,
' 2006.
, ,
, ,
,
.
,
("American Theocracy")
" "
.
" "
.
, 21
.
88
.
12,
'
,
.
.
,
-
,
-
.
, ,
(
:
)
-
-
.
85
.
.
,
:
.
8.
,
, '
130
20 2008,
15 $ 2003 3 $
, 1973.
,
,
-
.
2 $ .
,
,
3 .
,
( peak )
1965 1970 '
.
- 1980 ...
:
,
,
,
.
.
.
" "
,
,
.
,
70%
.
.
,
" "
" ". (. ...
,
(=) (=
).
,
,
.
,
, 5
..- "".
.
, 25%
,
3%,
,
,
"
",
20.000
89
- 200.000 .
.
,
" "
. ,
. ,
,
;
,
.
.
' ,
""
" "
"
".
,
PAX
ROMANA,
,
.
.
.
9.
"-" (peak)
"
".
.
,
90
'
/,
"",
,
.
,
/
,
.
, 3
,
.
.
(
,
,
" ,
- ",
",
( , . 350).
10.
,
,
.
.
. .
"
"
.
.
.
,
;
11.
,
,
1974.
,
1975. ,
,
,
).
, 30 (19501980) ,
27
"
"...
""
.
:
.
10 '50.
.
,
1956-66
.
" ",
- ,
" ",
10 '70.
.
,
.
.
.
( (1967-74)
.
(),
.
.
""
/,
,
'
-
1.000 ,
.)
,
140
10 .
91
.
,
6% ,
15 .
, ,
.
,
.
. '
.
.
.
13.
12.
, .
25,
: ",
"
:
.
-
,
.
,
.
(Siquestration)
.
,
,
,
. :
.
.
.
.
()
:
.
,
' . ..
92
(/)
' :
.
99% 100%
/ ,
, , .
.
/
70%,
'
,
.
,
, ' 10
. , .
.
/
35%.
..
.
.
66% 71%
.
.
'
.
.
, 2 .
.
14.
, ,
" ;"
: !
.
30.000 / 10%
10.
.
115
. ,
.
.
3
.
.
,
/
,
.
.
.
120.000
1/3
.
.
.
,
.
,
10% , "" ,
.
:
22 .
120 . .
.
,
.
.
.
,
. .
70 $/
.
'
.
'
,
4.
, ""
,
.
,
" ",
() '
.
,
,
.
.
"" 2,5 .
44 . 3 /.
.
"" 1 . , 140
. 3 /,
-, 1996.
.
, ""
-
93
.
15.
,
" "
.
,
" "
.
.
/ :
.
, ,
( / 450
. 3).
.
,
,
.
.
,
,
.
.
, ,
( /. 12
. / 1500
94
/).
.
,
, ...
!
.
.
.
,
.
.
""
6 !
.
...
,
2013
, ,
95%
""
, Kavala Oil.
.
12 ,
, casus belli
.
, .
.
.
,
350 -
3.500
.
, :
.
, ,
, /,
.
.
,
.
.
4.000
, ,
100
.
16.
.
.
, .
,
:
.
.
.
,
90%
( 50% 20)
.
""
.
.
,
,
,
.
.
,
""
439
,
20%
.
.
. :
.
.
.
.
.
2.000
, , 100 '
.
.
.
95
,
'
...
17.
:
.
/.
.
. '
, 1.200 ,
.
.
,
.
.
8 .
(2008)
,
,
. (
).
.
'
96
.
:
.
/,
..,
,
,
2289/95.
.
,
, ,
.
.
,
.
.
(),
.
,
.
,
,
.
.
.
,
.
" ",
,
"
"
,
, , 4.000
.
18.
/
"", , :
.
2006,
,
,
" "
:
.
.
,
, 2006,
,
, .
. .
, 650
--
4.000
.
.
,
""
-
.
.
2006,
.
3
.
.
2007,
,
.
,
.
.
/,
,
25.000
.
.
, '
!
.
,
" "
,
,
.
97
.
,
,
"
"
"
" ,
.
2002 .
.
.
-
-
,
.
.
.
,
- '
. ,
.
,
.
,
" ".
.
2006
,
,
"" ("
")
,
"
" (. 19.12.06
13.).
.
98
. 3/4
.
.
2007
55
12
.
,
- -
!
.
,
,
""
.
. 2006, ,
(
)
,
-
.
.
2006,
" "
,
. ,
-
.
.
.
2007,
80% 1999
2020
""
- ..
,
" ",
.
.
-
.
.
,
"
",
,
100
$ . "".
.
,
.
;
.
,
..,
, ' 2/5
200
. .
.
,
.
.
.
2007
,
.
.
,
100
. ,
2013.
.
- 10
. (
14.4.08)
.
30 cm3
()
2013 5
. , "
,
500
. " (ibid)
" "
'
, ,
,
"
".
19.
70% , .
,
' 14%
38 . , 2007.
,
.
.
"".
.
"",
.
99
.
""
, .
""
13.4.08.
,
.
6
,
.
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
,
,
.
.
, ,
100
.
,
.
,
,
.
.
: ,
1.000
,
.
,
.
,
15%
.
-.
, " ",
" ",
.
,
" ",
1944
,
" UTILITY OF FORCE"
Penguin Books 2006. (.135).
" "
.
2008
26 &27
. -
. .
101
102
2008
103
104
()
105
350
2009
106
H 2008
17
107
108
H 2008
109
110
111
112