Ardyanovich

Stat Test 1 and 2 Notes: Chp. 41

Chapter 4: Probability
4.1
-Easiest probability problem (relative frequency)
freq. of A
P (A) = relative frequency of A =
sample size
-Probability of Complements

P (AC ) = 1 − P (A)

4.22
-General Multiplication Rule:
You can use this rule generally whether or not the events are independent or
dependant
P (AB) = P (A)P (B|A)

or
P (AB) = P (B)P (A|B)

4.4 General Addition Rule

Events A and B are mutually exclusive(a.k.a., disjoint) if
P (A and B) = 0 (i.e., A and B can’t occur together).
Also, if A and B are mutually exclusive, then the general addition rule turns
into

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
since P (A and B) = 0 if A and B are mutually exclusive.
1 The First test just covered the basics (e.g., mean, median, mode,) so I’ll start with chapter

4 and if I feel like it I will cover chps. 1 - 3 later.

2 P (AB) = P (AandB)

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Homework: Section 4.1 and 4.2
4.1: 3, 7, 9, 11
3. General: Valid Probabilities Which of the following numbers cannot be
the probability of some event?

(a) 0.71
Answer: Valid
(b) 4.1
Answer: Invalid: Probabilities must be between 0 and 1.
1
(c) 8
Answer: Valid
(d) -0.5
Answer: Invalid: Probabilities must be between 0 and 1.
(e) 0.5
Answer: Valid
(f) 0
Answer: Valid
(g) 1
Answer: Valid
(h) 150%
Answer: Invalid: Probabilities must be between 0 and 1 or 0% and
100%
7. Myers-Briggs: Personality Types
Isabel Briggs Myers was a pioneer in the study of personality types. The
personality types are broadly defined according to four main preferences.
Do married couples choose similar or different personality types in their
mates? The following data give an indication (Source: I.B. Myers and
M.H. McCaulley, A Guide to the Development of Use of the Myers-Briggs
Type Indicators).

Table 1: Similarites and Differences in a Random Sample of 375 Mar-

ried Couples
Number of Similar Preferences Number of Married Couples
All four 34
Three 131
Two 124
One 71
None 15

2
 Suppose that a married couple is selected at random.
(a) Use the data to estimate the probability that they will have 0, 1, 2,
3, or 4 personality preferences in common.
Answer:
15
• P (0) = 375
71
• P (1) = 375
124
• P (2) = 375
131
• P (3) = 375
34
• P (4) = 375
(b) Do the probabilities add up to 1? Why should they? What is the
sample space in this problem?
Answer: Yes, they do add up to 1. They should add up to one
because the sum of all the probabilities in a sample space add up to
1.
9. Same concept as number 7. above.

11. Same concept as number 9. and 7. above.

Summary:
So, in this section, we basically covered
• what values probabilities take on
• the sample space’s probabilites should all add up to zero.

• relative frequency (#’s 7, 9, and 11)

4.2: 3 - 13 odd
Comments:
In my view, this is where the class actually starts to get interesting. Everything
before this section was stuff that I learned early on in High School, so it was
pretty boring. From now on, the problems get harder, but they also get more
interesting.

In Problems 1-11, use the appropriate addition or multiplication rules. When

possible, verify the results by considering the sample space.
1. General: Candy Colors
M&M plain candies come in various colors. According to the M&M/Mars
Department of Consumer Affairs (here), the distribution of colors for plain
M&M candies is

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 Table 2: Distribution of Colors for M&Ms
Color Purple Yellow Red Orange Green Blue Brown
Percentage(%) 20 20 20 10 10 10 10

Suppose you have a large bag of plain M&M candies and you take one
candy at random. Find

(a) P (greenorblue candy). Are these outcomes mutually exclusive? Why?Answer:

P (green candyorblue candy) = P (green) + P (blue) + P (green and blue)

= .10 + .10 + 0
= .2

Yes, these outcomes are mutually exclusive because P (green and blue) =
0
(b) P (yellow candyorred candy). Are these outcomes mutually exclu-
sive? Why?
Answer:
Same idea as part (a).
(c) P (notpurple candy). Answer:

P (not purple candy)(i.e., P (purple candyC )) = P (Yellow and RedOrange and Green and Blue and
= P ()
= .8

(d)
3. (a) P (green orblue) = .332
(b) .332
(c) P (no purple) = 1
(d) Yes, since the proportions of each color is different, the outcomes are
expected to be different.
5. General: Roll Two Dice
You roll two fair dice, a green one and a red one.

(a) Are the outcomes on the dice independent?

Answer:Yes, the outcomes are independent

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 (b) Find P (5 on green die and 3 on red die).
1
Answer:P (5 on green& 3 on red) = 36
(c) Find P (3 on green die and5 on red die).
1
Answer: 36
(d) Find P ((3 on green die and 5 on red die) or (5 on green die and 3 on red die))
Answer:
since these events are mutually exclusive, this is just

P (3 on green die and 5 on red die) + P (5 on green die and 3 on red die))

which simplifies to
2 1
=
36 18
7. General: Roll Two Dice
You roll two fair dice, a green one and a red one.

(a) What is the probability of getting a sum of 6?

(b) What is the probability of getting a sum of 4?
(c) What is the probability of getting a sum of 6 or 4? Are these out-
comes mutually exclusive?
9.

11.
13.