HASIL PREDIKSI INFLOW YANG MASUK KE 3 WADUK 1.

Inflow Waduk Saguling Model ARIMA yang digunakan adalah (1 0 1)(0 1 1)12 Bulan Mei '13 Juni '13 Juli '13 Agustus '13 September '13 MS = 0.0384 Prediksi Inflow (m3/s) 130.1 62.5 33.4 18.6 19.2

Residual Plots for Transformasi 2

Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals
99.9 99

Residuals Versus the Fitted Values

0.50

50 10 1 0.1

Residual
-0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 Residual 0.50

Percent

90

0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 1.5 2.0 2.5 Fitted Value 3.0

Histogram of the Residuals

40

Residuals Versus the Order of the Data

0.50

Frequency

20 10 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Residual 0.4 0.6

Residual

30

0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 1 50 100 150 200 250 Observation Order 300

2. Inflow Waduk Cirata Model ARIMA yang digunakan adalah (1 0 1)(0 1 1)36 Bulan Mei '13 Juni '13 Juli '13 Agustus '13 September '13 MS = 0.2825 Prediksi Inflow (m3/s) 91.5 58.7 41.7 24.0 32.1

Residual Plots for Trransformasi 2

Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals
99.9 99

Residuals Versus the Fitted Values

1

50 10 1 0.1

Residual
-2 -1 0 Residual 1 2

Percent

90

0 -1 2 3 4 Fitted Value 5

Histogram of the Residuals

40 1

Residuals Versus the Order of the Data

Frequency

Residual
-1.35 -0.90 -0.45 0.00 0.45 Residual 0.90 1.35

30 20 10 0

0 -1
1 2 0 4 0 60 80 00 20 40 60 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 00 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3

Observation Order

3. Inflow Waduk Juanda Model ARIMA yang digunakan adalah (1 0 1)(1 1 1)24 Bulan Mei '13 Juni '13 Juli '13 Agustus '13 September '13 MS = 0.1466 Prediksi Inflow (m3/s) 24.3 17.2 7.0 4.4 4.0

Residual Plots for Transformasi 2

Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals
99.9 99

Residuals Versus the Fitted Values

1.0

Residual
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 Residual 0.5 1.0

Percent

90 50 10 1 0.1

0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Fitted Value 3.0

Histogram of the Residuals

30

Residuals Versus the Order of the Data

1.0

Frequency

20 10 0

Residual
-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 Residual 0.6 0.9

0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

1 2 0 4 0 60 8 0 0 0 20 4 0 60 80 0 0 20 40 6 0 80 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3

Observation Order