B phn Phn tch & T vn u t

CNG TY C PHN EVERPIA VIT NAM

Bo co ln u NM GI

NHNG NT CHNH Khuyn ngh u t. Everpia l mt cng ty hng u trong ngnh chn ga gi m. Tuy kt qu kinh doanh nm 2012 suy gim so vi nm trc nhng chng ti tin rng EVE c th gi vng th phn ca mnh v kt qu kinh doanh ca cng ty s phc hi khi nn kinh t phc hi. V vy chng ti khuyn ngh NM GI vi c phiu EVE vi gi k vng l 26.500 ng/c phiu.
Gi k vng *

KHUYN NGH U T 26.500 ng

23.400 ng 14.200-25.300

Gi th trng (07/1/2013) Khong gi 52 tun Khuyn ngh Trin vng 1 qu Trin vng 1 nm Trin vng di hn Bn mnh Bn Nm gi Mua

NM GI
Tng nh Tng nh Tng nh Mua mnh

Nh sn xut chn ga gi m ln nht. EVE l cng ty sn xut chn ga gi m ln nht th trng Vit Nam hin nay vi 3 nh my c tng cng sut sn xut l 10 triu sn phm chn ga gi m v 15 triu yard bng tm/nm. Thng hiu tt. EVERON l thng hiu dn u th trng chn ga gi m trung cp vi th phn khong 28%. Bn cnh , cng ty cng thm nhp th trng cao cp vi nhn hng ATERMIS v th trng bnh dn vi nhn hng EDELIN H thng phn phi rng mnh. Vi h thng phn phi mnh bao gm 607 i l ti 60 tnh thnh, Everpia l cng ty c h thng phn phi mnh nht trong ngnh. H thng phn phi rng khp gip cng ty chim lnh v gi vng th phn ca mnh. Kh nng duy tr bin gp cao. Vi v th ca mnh cng chnh sch d tr nguyn vt liu hp l, Everpia c th ch ng c chi ph v n nh gi sn phm duy tr bin li nhun gp cao trn 30%. Tnh hnh ti chnh lnh mnh. Cng ty hu nh khng s dng n vay m s dng vn ch s hu ti tr cho cc hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca mnh. iu ny gip EVE ch ng trong ngun vn kinh doanh v trnh c gnh nng chi ph ti chnh, c bit khi th trng ti chnh bin ng. Thanh khon yu. EVE l mt c phiu c thanh khon yu. Khi lng giao dch bnh qun ca EVE trong mt thng gn nht ch l 3.831 c phiu/ngy. Thanh khon yu cng l mt l do khin EVE km hp dn u t.

BIN NG GI
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
01/03/2012 04/04/2012 06/29/2012 09/24/2012 12/18/2012

0.1 Millions 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

YTD EVE VNindex

1T

3T

6T

-9% +10%

+8%

-8% +5%

+4% +13% +10%

THNG TIN C PHIU

Mt s ch tiu d bo ca EVE Ch s ti chnh Doanh thu (triu VND) EBITDA (triu VND) EBIT (triu VND) Li nhun sau thu (triuVND) EPS (VND) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) 2009 424.448 121.338 112.357 89.689 8.367 2,53 0,68 27,8% 36,1% 2010 563.524 141.651 130.056 102.483 6.669 3,18 0,57 18,9% 22,5% 2011 798.668 211.153 193.944 150.866 6.443 3,29 0,72 19,9% 23,9% 2012F 763.954 162.368 141.108 112.886 4.031 5,26 0,77 12,7% 15,5% 2013F 835.663 180.767 153.116 122.493
Vn ha 593 t ng 27.986.518 cp 6.048 M c phiu Reuters Bloomberg Sn giao dch Ngnh Lnh vc EVE EVE.HM EVE VN HOSE Chn ga gi m Tiu dng

4.374 4,85 0,76 13,1% 15,8%

SL c phiu lu hnh KLGD bnh qun 10 ngy

Chuyn vin phn tch V Th Mai (84 4) 3928 8080 ext 611 vuthimai@baoviet.com.vn

Ngun: EVE, BVSC tnh ton

Vui lng c k khuyn ngh v cc thuyt minh ti trang cui ca bo co ny

THNG TIN S HU

CH S TI CHNH D BO

S hu nh nc S hu nc ngoi S hu khc

0% 49% 51%

Kt qu kinh doanh n v (triu VND) Doanh thu Gi vn Li nhun gp Doanh thu ti chnh Chi ph ti chnh Li nhun sau thu 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 835.663 536.495 299.167 6.802 4.860 122.493

424.448 563.524 247.664 326.617 176.783 236.907 9.820 8.912 23.221 15.439

798.668 763.954 481.093 490.458 317.575 273.496 21.106 15.439 12.461 8.414

89.689 100.365

149.063 112.886

Bng cn i k ton n v (triu VND) Tin & khon tng ng tin Cc khon phi thu ngn hn Hng tn kho Ti sn c nh hu hnh Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn Tng ti sn N ngn hn N di hn Vn ch s hu Tng ngun vn 2009 130.691 55.001 131.056 61.892 3.088 415.542 80.030 90 335.422 415.542 2010 194.842 84.998 224.725 116.336 4.023 669.478 77.798 16.982 573.578 669.478 2011 119.403 106.151 360.634 135.504 1.023 849.684 139.404 17.543 690.488 849.684 2012F 45.411 104.041 367.655 225.199 922.753 135.563 17.099 768.572 922.753 2013F 5.179 113.807 402.165 319.750 946.453 148.288 17.352 780.813 946.453

Ch s ti chnh Ch tiu Ch tiu tng trng Tng trng doanh thu (%) Tng trng li nhun sau thu (%) Ch tiu sinh li Li nhun gp bin (%) Li nhun thun bin (%) ROA (%) ROE (%) Ch tiu c cu vn Tng n/Tng ti sn (%) Tng n/Tng vn ch s hu (%) Ch tiu trn mi c phn EPS (ng/c phn) Gi tr s sch (ng/c phn) 8.367 31.289 6.669 37.420 6.443 29.506 4.031 27.462 4.374 27.900 19,3% 23,9% 14,2% 16,5% 18,5% 22,7% 16,5% 19,9% 17,5% 21,2% 41,7% 21,1% 27,8% 36,1% 42,0% 17,8% 18,9% 22,5% 39,8% 18,7% 19,9% 23,9% 35,8% 14,8% 12,7% 15,5% 35,8% 14,7% 13,1% 15,8% 26,9% 62,8% 32,8% 11,9% 41,7% 48,5% -4,3% -24,3% 9,4% 8,5% 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

Bo co ti chnh da trn chun mc k ton Vit Nam

CNG TY C PHN EVERPIA VIT NAM 1. S lc v Cng ty. Cng ty C phn Everpia Vit Nam tin thn l nh my ca Cng ty TNHH Viko Moolsan 100% vn Hn Quc c thnh lp thng 12/1993. Hot ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty bao gm 2 lnh vc chnh l sn xut bng tm (bt u hot ng nm 1994) v sn xut Chn-Ga-Gi-m (bt u hot ng nm 1995). n thng 05/2007, Cng ty chuyn i thnh Cng ty c phn Everpia Vit Nam v chnh thc nim yt trn sn HOSE vi m chng khon EVE vo nm 2010. 2. Hot ng sn xut kinh doanh. Sn phm chnh ca Everpia Vit Nam l chn ga gi m (chim khong 65% doanh thu) v bng tm (27% doanh thu). Trong thi gian ti EVE c k hoch m rng ngnh ngh kinh doanh sang lnh vc phn phi cc sn phm ni tht v cc loi khn dng cho gia nh hoc khch sn, khu ngh dng. C cu doanh thu 2011
DT bn hng ha DT chn khc bng 2% 6%

C cu li nhun gp 2011
hng ha khc 2% chn bng 7% bng tm 27%

bng tm 27%

chn ga, m 65%

chn ga, m 64%

SN PHM CHN GA GI M Cc sn phm chn ga gi m ca cng ty phc v c 3 phn khc th trng. Sn phm EVERON- phc v th trng trung cp, ARTEMIS phc v th trng cao cp v EDELIN phc v th trng bnh dn. Trong mt hng ch o vn l EVERON, cc thng hiu ATERMIS v EDELIN mi giai on u tip cn th trng nn ng gp vo doanh thu/li nhun cha ng k. Sn phm ca EVE ch yu tiu th ti H Ni v cc tnh pha Bc (72%). Thng hiu tt trn th trng trung cp. Hin ti, mc cnh tranh trn th trng chn ga gi m trung cp kh gay gt vi trn 10 nhn hng, tiu biu nh: Bluesky (Hanvico), Kore (Kona), Ha Bnh (Thanh Bnh), Sng Hng (Sng Hng), Sense (Poongchin), Canada, Warm (CTTNHH TRANDA), Evewin (i Hi Vit), EVERHOME Vi 28% th phn, EVE l thng hiu ln nht trn th trng chn ga gi m trung cp. Thm nhp phn khc cao cp vi nhn hng ARTERMIS. Sn phm ARTEMIS tuy mi ra i nhng cng chim c 15% th trng cao cp. Trong phn khc th trng ny, 43% vn l ca hng nhp khu, 42% n t cc nhn hng ni a khc nh ROYAL AWARD ca Hanvico, Ngoi ra, EVE cn thm nhp th trng bnh dn vi nhn hng EDELIN. EDELIN chnh thc xut hin trn th trng t thng 7/2011. Trong thi k kinh t kh khn hin nay, dng sn phm ny c EVE ch trng pht trin chim lnh th trng. Tuy nhin, trn phn khc bnh dn, mc cnh tranh cng rt cao vi nhiu nhn hng bnh dn nh KAOLA, EDENA, VIKOSAN.. v hng nhi, hng nhp lu t Trung Quc.

H thng phn phi rng nht trong ngnh. Khong 95% sn phm chn ga c tiu th qua h thng phn phi gm 607 i l v cc showroom. 5% cn li c tiu th trc tip ti cc nh hng, khch sn, lm qu tng ca cc t chc, Cc i l EVERON v ATERMIS hu ht l i l c quyn trong khi cc i l EDELIN c th bn nhiu loi hng khc nhau do mt hng ny thuc phn khc hng bnh dn. Cc i l bn sn phm ca Everpia c nim yt gi thng nht. Mi hnh thc i l c Everpia h tr theo cc hnh thc khc nhau nh: chuyn ch, bin qung co, trang tr hay tip th ti a phng. Cc i l mua hng ca cng ty khng c quyn tr li hng (mua t). ng thi, cc i l nhn mc chit khu t 17-20% cho tng i l. Chnh sch i l hiu qu khin nhiu i l trung thnh vi cng ty t ngy thnh lp, gip cng ty chim lnh v gi vng th phn. So snh h thng phn phi vi mt s cng ty cng phn khc
EVE S i l 607 Hanvico 185 Kore 45 Sng Hng 97 Sense 52 Canada 45

Nm 2011 tnh hnh kinh t kh khn, nhiu nhn hng phi gim s i l nh KORE, HANVICO,.. tuy nhin EVE khng nhng gi m cn tng tng s i l ca mnh ln 607 i l, tng 13 i l so vi cui nm 2011. Vi h thng phn phi ln nht trong ngnh v vn tip tc c m rng, chng ti tin rng EVE c th gi vng th phn ca mnh. Ngoi th trng truyn thng, hin nay EVE cn n lc tm kim cc knh th trng mi th bn hng online v xut khu Th nghim th trng bn hng online vi nhn hng LOVELON. EVE ang th nghim th trng online vi nhn hng ring khng nh hng n hot ng bn hng ca cc i l. Nhn hng LOVELON c thit k ting cho knh bn hng ny vi cc sn phm chnh l chn ga cho tr s sinh v tr nh. Tm kim th trng xut khu. Hin nay, doanh thu t hng xut khu chim khong 4% doanh thu ca nhn hng EVERON, 96% c tiu th ti th trng ni a. Trong tng lai, cng ty nh hng y mnh xut khu mt hng chn ga sang cc th trng Nht Bn, Hn Quc v Chu u. Bn cnh , cng ty cn m i l ti Campuchia m rng th trng tiu th sang quc gia ang pht trin ny. SN PHM BNG TM Hin Everpia s hu nhiu nhn hng bng tm DEXFIL, THERMOLITE (bng khng resin), DACRON, ADVANSA.. Trong , DEXFIL l sn phm c EVE nghin cu pht trin v cung cp trn ton th gii, THERMOLITE, DACRON l sn phm sn xut theo tiu chun ca INVISTA (Hoa K) v ADVANSA l sn xut theo tiu chun ca c Sn phm bng tm chim khong 27% doanh thu v li nhun ca EVE. Bng tm l sn phm phc v cho cc sn phm dt may nh o jacket, mch c o . Hin nay mt hng ny chim khong 27% doanh thu v li nhun ca EVE. C cu doanh thu bng tm 2011
13% 26% 9%

bng trng thng bng x si ngn CLC bng invista bng ht ph gia cng chn
36%

11% 5%

cc loi khc

Ch yu phc v xut khu gin tip. Khch hng chnh ca mt hng bng tm ch yu l cc cng ty may mc Hn Quc (chim 63% doanh thu), M v cc cng ty may xut khu trong nc. Sn phm bng tm l sn phm xut khu gin tip thng qua cc cng ty sn xut v gia cng hng xut khu. EVE l mt trong hai cng ty ng u, nm gi khong 30% th trng bng tm cng vi Mirea Fiber. Theo thng k ca CTCP Everpia, th trng bng tm min bc bao gm 5 cng ty chnh l CTCP Mirae Fiber, Everpia, Poongchin , Kona v cng ty Sng Hng. Trong , EVE cng vi Mirea Fiber l 2 cng ty ln nht, mi cng ty nm gi khong 30% th phn, 40% th phn thuc v 3 cng ty cn li. U VO Ngun cung cp nguyn vt liu n nh. Nguyn vt liu chnh ca EVE l vi, x v mt s ph liu nh ch may, resin, Interlining v nhin liu. Hai nh cung cp chnh l EP International JSC Hn Quc (cung cp khong 98% x) v Tai Han Trung Quc (cung cp khong 92% vi). y l nhng nh cung cp ln, c uy tn trn th trng v c quan h lu nm vi cng ty nn ngun nguyn vt liu ca cng ty lun c m bo. D tr nguyn vt liu trc ma v t 5-6 thng. Cng ty thng k hp ng nguyn tc vo u mi nm v d tr nguyn vt liu trc ma v khong 5-6 thng, do chnh sch t hng sm nn cng ty c th ch ng c chi ph, kim sot c ri ro bin ng gi nguyn liu. Hu ht cc nguyn vt liu c nhp bng USD, tuy nhin vic d tr nguyn vt liu cng phn no gip EVE hn ch c ri ro t gi. Kh nng duy tr bin gp cao khong trn 30%. Vi v th ca mnh, h thng phn phi rng khp cng chnh sch d tr nguyn vt liu hp l, Everpia c th ch ng c chi ph v n nh gi sn phm duy tr bin li nhun gp cao trn 30%. iu ny c th hin r nht trong nm 2011, khi gi cotton bin ng mnh trn 200% nhng EVE vn duy tr c bin li nhun 40% cho c nm.

Gi cotton v li nhun bin ca EVE

250 200 150 100 50 0
Q 1/10 Q 2/10 Q 3/10 Q 4/10 Q 1/11 Q 2/11 Q 3/11 Q 4/11 Q 1/12 Q 2/12 Q 3/12 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

LN Bin

Gi cotton tb 3 thng

Ngun: Reuters, CTCP Everpia Quy m sn xut ln. EVE l cng ty sn xut chn ga gi m ln nht trn th trng ni a Vit Nam vi 4 dy chuyn sn xut bng tm, 3 dy chuyn sn xut m (trong c 1 dy chuyn sn xut m l xo), 50 my chn, 16 my chn chn, 333 my may, 16 my thu. Nng lc sn xut ca EVE vo khong 10 triu sn phm chn ga gi m v 15 triu yard bng tm/nm.

S lng dy chuyn sn xut Dy chuyn sn xut Bng tm Dy chuyn sn xut m Dy chuyn sn xut rut chn My chn My chn chn My may My thu S cng nhn

EVERPIA 4 3 1 50 16 333 16 857

Sng Hng 2

Poongchin 4 4

26 2

64 4 4000

92

350

Ngun: CTCP Everpia, Sng Hng, Poongchin Tnh ma v. Thng thng ma sn xut chn ga v ma sn xut bng tm ngc nhau. V kinh doanh bng tm thng bt u vo thng 3 v kt thc vo khong thng 8 cn v kinh doanh chn ga gi m thng t doanh thu cao vo qu 4 v u qu 1 do doanh thu tiu th cc mt hng chn ga gi m ti th trng min Bc tng vt trong qu 4 do iu kin thi tit gi rt.

Doanh thu theo thng nm 2011

90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

Doanh thu chn ga

0

Doanh thu bng tm T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

T1

T2

T3

T4

T5

D BO KT QU KINH DOANH 2012 Chn ga gi m: Chn ga gi m khng phi mt hng thit yu nn khi nn kinh t kh khn ngi dn gim chi tiu, cu s gim. Mc d s lng i l ca EVERPIA tng t 594 i l cui nm 2011 ln 607 i l nhng sn lng tiu th d kin khng tng. Bn cnh , kch cu cng ty thc hin nhiu chng trnh khuyn mi khin gi bn thc t gim xung. Doanh thu t mng chn ga d kin s tng ng vi nm 2011 nhng li nhun bin d kin s gim t 39% xung cn 36% (3 qu u nm 2012 li nhun bin ca EVE mc 36,3%) Bng tm. Vi kh khn ca ngnh dt may ni chung, cc n hng gia cng t th trng M v Chu u v Vit Nam cng gim bt. Bn cnh , mt s khch hng truyn thng ca Everpia cng t u t dy chuyn sn xut bng tm nh TNG,.. Vi tnh hnh kinh doanh hin ti, kt qu kinh doanh nm 2012 ca EVE c d bo s khng kh quan bng nm 2011. Doanh thu v li nhun sau thu nm 2012 c tnh vo khong 763 v 106 t ng, gim tng ng 4,3% v 28 % so vi nm 2011.

Mt s ch tiu d bo ca EVE nm 2012 Ch tiu Doanh thu (t ng) Li nhun sau thu (t ng) 2011 798.668 149.063 2012 763.954 112.886 % thay i -4,3% -24,3%

QUAN IM U T Everpia l mt cng ty hng u trong ngnh chn ga gi m. Tuy kt qu kinh doanh nm 2012 suy gim so vi nm trc nhng chng ti tin rng EVE c th gi vng th phn ca mnh v kt qu kinh doanh ca cng ty s phc hi khi nn kinh t phc hi. V vy chng ti khuyn ngh NM GI vi c phiu EVE vi gi k vng l 26.500 ng/c phiu

THUYT MINH BO CO Gi k vng. L mc nh gi ca chuyn vin da trn phn tch hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip. cc yu t v tim nng. trin vng pht trin. cc ri ro m doanh nghip c th gp phi xc nh gi tr hp l c phiu ca doanh nghip . Phng php s dng xc nh gi tr k vng l cc phng php c s dng rng ri nh: phng php chit khu dng tin (FCFE. FCFF. DDM); phng php nh gi da vo ti sn NAV; phng php so snh da trn nhiu ch s (P/E. P/B. EV/EBIT. EV/EBITDA...). Vic p dng phng php no ty thuc vo tng ngnh. doanh nghip. tnh cht ca c phiu. Ngoi ra. tm l th trng cng c th nh hng ti vic xc nh gi mc tiu ca c phiu. nh gi trin vng.L mc d bo v tng lai ca doanh nghip tng ng vi cc khong thi gian khc nhau. Cc k hiu i km cung cp thng tin v mt nh lng doanh nghip s tng trng nhanh hay chm. mc no. Gii thch k hiu Biu tng ngha Li nhun d bo gim mnh trn 30% Li nhun d bo gim nh trong khong t 15-30% Li nhun d bo bin ng trong bin 5% Li nhun d bo tng nh trong khong t 15-30% Li nhun d bo tng mnh trn 30%

H THNG KHUYN NGH CA BVSC H thng khuyn ngh ca BVSC c xy dng trn c s mc tng/gim tuyt i ca gi c phiu t ti gi k vng. c 5 mc khuyn ngh c BVSC s dng tng ng vi cc mc chnh lch c ln t thp n cao. Lu l cc khuyn ngh u t c th s thay i vo mi cui qu sau khi BVSC thc hin nh gi li doanh nghip. Cc mc khuyn ngh Khuyn ngh MUA MNH MUA NM GI BN BN MNH nh ngha Gi k vng cao hn gi th trng 30% Gi k vng cao hn gi th trng t 15-30% Gi k vng khng cao hn v cng khng thp hn 15% gi th trng Gi k vng thp hn gi th trng t 15-30% Gi k vng thp hn gi th trng 30%

KHUYN CO S DNG
Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co ny c xem xt cn trng. tuy nhin Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit (BVSC) khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co ny. Cc quan im. nhn nh. nh gi trong bo co ny l quan im c nhn ca cc chuyn vin phn tch m khng i din cho quan im ca BVSC. Bo co ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm khuyn ngui c mua. bn hay nm gi chng khon. Ngi c ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho. BVSC c th c nhng hot ng hp tc kinh doanh vi cc i tng c cp n trong bo co ny. Ngi c cn lu rng BVSC c th c nhng xung t li ch i vi cc nh u t khi thc hin bo co phn tch ny.

B PHN PHN TCH V T VN U T

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit a ch tr s chnh: 8 L Thi T. qun Hon Kim. H Ni Tel: (844) 3928 8080 Fax: (844) 3928 9888 Chi nhnh: Tng 8. 233 ng Khi.Qun 1. Tp. H Ch Minh Tel: (848) 39146888 Fax: (848) 39147999

Chuyn vin phn tch: V Th Mai vuthimai@baoviet.com.vn

Chu trch nhim ni dung: Lu Vn Lng luuvanluong@baoviet.com.vn