Chng 3.

Cc suy din, gii thch v khng chc chn

Chuyn ngnh Cc h thng thng tin v tri thc H Cm H-khoa CNTT-HSP HN- 2012

 Con ngi lm vic vi tri thc, s kin v cc chin lc gii

bi ton rt ra kt lun- qu trnh suy l

Trong cc h thng thng minh, vic suy l th hin k thut

suy din v cc chin lc iu khin Cc k thut suy din: hng dn h thng tng hp tri thc t

cc tri thc c trong CSTT v t s kin ghi li b nh.

Cc chin lc iu khin: thit lp ch cn n v hng dn h thng suy l

 theo cch suy din (modus ponens)

quy np gi nh

tng t, loi suy

theo l thng khng n iu

 Chui suy din tin

Chui suy din li

Th no l suy din tin (li)

im khc nhau c bn
u, nhc im mi kiu Khi no nn dng tin (li)

Ci t th no?

 Qu trnh lp lun suy ra s kin mi t cc s kin

trong b nh lm vic, s dng modus ponens tng

qut (khng nh hng ti gii quyt mt vn no c) gi l lp lun iu khin bi d liu C th coi l qu trnh tm kim t s kin (fact) n mc tiu (goal)

 Qu trnh lp lun nhm chng minh (hay bc b mt

gi thuyt (tm ra cc cu tr li cho mt cu hi)

gi l lp lun nh hng mc ch. C th coi l qu trnh tm kim t mc tiu (goal) v s kin (fact).

Thch hp khi:

Tt c hoc mt phn d liu c cho t u.

C nhiu mc tiu, nhng ch c mt s t cc php ton c th p dng cho mt trng thi bi ton. Rt kh a ra mt mc tiu hoc gi thuyt ngay lc u.

Thch hp khi:

C th a ra mc tiu hoc gi thuyt ngay lc u.

C nhiu php ton c th p dng trn 1 trng thi ca bi ton s bng n s lng cc trng thi. Cc d liu ca bi ton khng c cho trc, nhng h thng phi ly c trong qu trnh tm

kim.

 u im
dng

c theo kiu trc tip, vi nhng tri thc kinh nghim c

t chuyn gia; c bit quan trng lnh vc tin cy vo kinh nghim qun tr kh v/hoc thng tin khng y .
cc

lut nh x vo duyt khng gian trng thi; cc tin ch gii

thch h tr cho tm li.

 u im (tip)

S tch bit tri thc khi iu khin lm qu trnh pht trin

ES n gin hn. C th t c hiu nng cao trong min lnh vc c gii

hn.

C nhng phng tin gii thch (khc nhau gia 2 loi suy din tin v li)

10

 Hn ch

Cc lut c c t chuyn gia thng l tri thc kinh

nghim, khng phn nh tri thc theo kiu hm hoc tri thc da trn m hnh ca lnh vc .

lut heuristic c khuynh hng d v, kh khn trong

nhng trng hp gp d liu khng mong i hay thng tin khng y .

11

 Hn ch (tip)

Chc nng gii thch ch c mc m t, b qua gii thch

mang tnh l thuyt (v khng i hi nhng lp lun su hn). Tri thc c khuynh hng rt ph thuc vo cng vic (task)

Tri thc lnh vc c hnh thc ha c khuynh hng c

c th ha trong ng dng ca n. Cho n nay cc ngn ng biu din tri thc cha tip cn c vi s linh hot trong lp

lun ca con ngi.

12

 Gii thiu

Gii quyt vn , chuyn gia con ngi dng: lut heuristic, m hnh l
thuyt, lp lun t cc ca trong lch s (CBR). CBR dng CSDL (tng minh) v cc li gii c gii quyt vn t ra. VD: trong y t, lut php, lp trnh, khm xt phncng, kin trc u cha thit k (design) CBR em n mt s thun li cho vic xy dng ES: thu thp tri thc c

th n gin hn

Cc tip cn CB cng cho ES t hc c t kinh nghim ca mnh

13

 Trc mt bi ton mi, CBR:

Retrieve
Modify

approriate cases from memory.

a retrieved case so that it will apply to the current

situation
Apply
Save

the transforrmed case

the solution, with a record of success or failure, for future

use

14

Retrieve approriate cases from memory

Ca tng thch: gii php ca n c th p dng thnh
cng cho tnh hung hin thi. Lm th no chn c ca tng thch: dng heuristic xc nh tng t, thng da trn mt s c im chung. Cc ca c ch mc ha bi cc c tnh ng ch . Xc nh c tnh ni bt rt ph thuc vo tnh hung

15

 Modify

a retrieved case so that it will apply to the

current situation
Mt ca s a ra mt dy cc php ton chuyn t trng thi u v trng thi ch.

B lp lun phi chuyn t li gii c lu tr thnh cc php

ton thch hp cho tnh hung hin thi. Cc phng php phn tch (chng hn curve fitting)

16

Apply the transformed case

Bc 2 ta bin i mt ca lu tr, khi p dng c th
khng cho mt gii php tha ng (vi tnh hung hin ti) cn thay i gii php (c th lp li 3 bc u ny).

17

Save the solution, with a record of success or failure,

for future use

Vic lu tr mt ca mi yu cu cp nht cu trc ch mc ha.C nhng phng php qun tr nhng ch s ny, trong c cc thut

ton phn cm v c cc k thut khc na trong hc my.

18

 Ni thm

Cu trc d liu cho cc CBR c th rt khc nhau:

o o o

Relational tuples Proof tree Set of large situation-rule

Kh nht l chn c tnh cho vic ch mc ha v truy lc li cc ca

19

 Ni thm

Kolodner (1993): preference heuristic to help organize the storage and

retrieval of cases
o o o o o o

Goal-directed preference Salient-feature preference Specify preference Frequency preference Recency preference Ease of adaptation preference

20

 u im

Kh nng m ha mt cch trc tip nhng tri thc mang tnh lch s
(Trong nhiu lnh vc cc trng hp thu thp c c th khng cn vin n cc tri thc su sc ca chuyn gia con ngi).

Cho php c shortcut trong lp lun. Nu tm thy mt case thch hp mt thi gian hn so vi vic sinh ra gii php t cc lut hay tm kim trn cc m hnh

Cho php h thng trnh cc li v khai thc cc thnh cng xy ra trong qu kh. Cung cp mt m hnh hc c nhng vn quan tm trong l thuyt v thc t ng dng cho vn phc tp.

21

 u im

Cho php m hnh n gin hn (so vi h da trn lut) trong thu nhn tri
thc. CBR cn mt cch biu din thch hp cho cc ca (case), ch mc ha hiu qu cho truy xut, chin lc thch ng cho cc ca. Trong h da trn lut k s tri thc phi tng tc trc vi cc lut.

Cc chin lc ch mc ha thch hp lm tng thm nng lc thu hiu v gii quyt vn . Kh nng nhn bit s khc nhau trong cc bi ton ch v la chn mt ca thch hp l rt quan trng i vi CBR. Thng thng cc thut ton nh ch mc cung cp chc nng ny mt cch t ng.

22

 Hn ch
Cc

ca thng khng cha kin thc chuyn su ca lnh vc bt

li trong chc nng gii thch, trong nhiu tnh hung khng p dng c cc ca cht lng km/li khuyn sai.
Vn Kh

trade-off gia s lng cc ca lu tr v hiu nng h thng. khn trong xc nh u l tnh cht tt dng cho ch mc ha

v snh hp cc ca.

23

 u im

kh nng dng tri thc c cu trc ca lnh vc tng kh

nng cho ngi suy lun dng c nhng iu m ngi thit k h thng khng lng trc c.

hng n nhng gii php k lng (hon ho) v linh hot

24

 u im

C tri thc chuyn i c gia cc cng vic (task). Thng s dng tri thc khoa hc v l thuyt. Thng cung cp l gii hiu su hn nhng sai lm ta mc phi ng vai tr gia s (tutor) rt tt

25

 Hn ch

Thiu kinh nghim c t tri thc ca lnh vc. Cc phng php heuristic c s dng trong cch tip cn dng lut phn nh lp kin thc chuyn gia ng gi.

Yu cu mt m hnh (lnh vc) tng minh. Trong khi nhiu lnh vc thiu l thuyt khoa hc pht biu tt v r rng cho vn t ra. phc tp ln (do thng vn hnh mc chi tit) Nhng tnh hung ngoi l

26

 combination rule-based and case-based:

check against before undertaking rule-based
reasoning provide a record of examples and exceptions to

solutions through retention in the case base

can avoid duplicating costly search

27

 combination rule-based and model-based:

enhance explanations with functional knowledge Improve robustness when rule fail

add heuristic search to model-based search

manage the complexity of MBR and allow to choose intelligently between possible alternatives

28

 combination model-based and case-based:

give more mature explanations to the situations recorded
in cases check against stored cases before beginning the more extensive search required by MBR provide a record of examples and exceptions in a case base that can use to guide model-based inference Record results of model-based inference for future use

29

is not a simple matter

problem: determining which reasoning method to

apply in a given situation deciding when to change reasoning methods

resolving differences between reasoning methods

Designing representations that allow knowledge to be shared.

30

 Cch tip cn thng k (xc sut)

CF h s chc chn Stanford
L thuyt Bayes

Cch tip cn l thuyt kh nng

Fuzzy

31

 The Stanford Certainty Factor Algebra

MB(H/E) o s tin cy ca gi thuyt khi c chng c E MD(H/E) o s khng tin cy v gi thuyt khi c chng c E 0 <MB(H/E) < 1 trong khi MD(H/E) =0 0 <MD(H/E) < 1 trong khi MB(H/E) =0 o chc chn:

CF(H/E) = MB(H/E) MD(H/E)

Khi chuyn gia to ra lut suy din, h phi cung cp o chc chn ca lut Trong lp lun, ta thu c o chc chn ca chng c t tnh c o chc chn ca kt lun (gii thuyt)

32

 Lut n gin:
If (e) then (c)

CF(e): o chc chn ca chng c e

CF (r): o chc chn ca lut CF(c) : o chc chn ca kt lun c tnh:

CF(c) = CF(e) CF(r)

33

 Lut phc tp:

If (e1 AND e2) then (c)
CF(e1 AND e2) = MIN (CF(e1), CF(e2))

If (e1 OR e2) then (c) CF(e1 OR e2) = MAX (CF(e1), CF(e2))

If ((e1 AND e2) OR e3) then (c) CF((e1 AND e2) OR e3) = MAX (MIN(CF(e1), CF(e2)), CF(e3)) CF(NOT e) = - CF(e)

34

 Kt hp nhiu lut c cng kt lun:

r1: If (e1) then (c) r2: If (e2) then (c) Vi CF(e1), CF(e2), CF(r1), CF(r2) CF(ct1), CF(ct2)- ca kt lun ca lut r1 v lut r2

CF(ct1) v CF(ct2) u dng:

CFtng = CF(ct1) + CF(ct2) CF(ct1)CF(ct2) CF(ct1) v CF(ct2) u m: CFtng = CF(ct1) + CF(ct2) + CF(ct1)CF(ct2) CF(ct1) v CF(ct2) tri du: CFtng = (CF(ct1) + CF(ct2))/(1- MIN(ABS(CF(ct1)),ABS(CF(ct2))))

35

L thuyt xc sut Bayes

Xt lut c cu trc IF E THEN H. nh l Bayes c dng cung cp xc sut v gi thuyt H khi c s kin E. Cng c th dng nh l ny kim sot cc cu suy din c dng IF X THEN E IF E THEN Y

36

L thuyt xc sut Bayes cn c dng dng ph nh H

v tnh c t l gia kh nng ng h gii thuyt H v kh nng ph

nh gi thuyt H khi c s kin E:

37

L thuyt xc sut Bayes V d:

Bng chng (triu chng): bnh nhn b kh th Gi thuyt (bnh): bnh nhn b au tim Gi s: P(au tim) = 0.001; P(kh th) = 0.002 v cc chuyn gia cho bit P(kh th |au tim) = 0.6 Ta tnh c:

38

L thuyt xc sut Bayes, ch :

Cn

bit tt c nhng xc sut v cc quan h gia bng

chng vi nhng gi thuyt khc nhau cng nh nhng

quan h xc sut gia cc bng chng.
Nhiu

khi rt kh xc nh tt c nhng quan h gia bng

chng v gi thuyt. Vic tnh P(E) yu cu tp cc gi thuyt hi phi c lp vi tp bng chng E.

Trn thc t, trnh nhng kh khn trn, ngi ta c

39

th s dng Bayes-n gin (nave Bayes)

L thuyt fuzzy: Mt quan h m R gia hai tp tham chiu X v Y l mt tp con m ca X Y vi hm thuc R

V d: Gi s X = {1, 2} v Y = {a, b, c}; R tng ng vi ma trn sau

R l quan h m gia X v Y nh sau:

R = {((1,a),0.5), ((1,b),1.0), ((1,c),0), (2,a),0.3), ((2,b),0.75), ((2,c),0.8)}

40

L thuyt fuzzy:
Hp thnh ca hai quan h m R1 trn X Y v R2 trn Y Z xc

nh mt quan h m R= R1 R2 trn X Z c hm thuc c nh

ngha bi : (x,z) X Z, R(x,z) = maxy Y min(R1((x,y), R2((y,z)) nh ngha ny tng ng vi hp thnh max-min, c dng ph bin. Tuy nhin c th thay ton t min bng mt ton t T khc,

chng hn mt tch c hp thnh max-T.

41

L thuyt fuzzy:

Khi hp thnh max-min ca R1 v R2 l quan h m R:

42

L thuyt fuzzy:

Cc php ko theo m A(x) B(y) trong logic c in, vi X l min tr ca x, Y l min tr ca Y, A v B tng ng l cc tp r ca X v Y; A l min tr A(x) ng, B l min tr B(y) ng. Min tr ng ca (A(x) B(y)) l quan h r R trn X Y: R = (A Y)(X B) (1) hoc R = (A Y)(A B) (2)

43

L thuyt fuzzy:
Mt php ko theo m c dng:

IF (x l A) THEN (y l B),

(3)

Coi ko theo m (3) nh mt quan h m R trn X Y c xc nh bi (1) hoc (2) nhng cc php ton l cc php ton trn tp m.

44

L thuyt fuzzy:
V d: Xt lut m R IF (x l A) THEN (y l B), trong A v B l cc tp m sau: A={(1,1.0), (2,0.7), (3,0.1)}; B={(a,0.0), (b,0.3), (c,1.0), (d,1.0)}; Theo (5) ta c

45

L thuyt fuzzy:
C s lut m v b suy din m

Kin trc tiu biu ca mt h m

46

L thuyt fuzzy:
Vic tnh tp m u ra B khi cho tp m u vo A cn ty thuc la chn: suy din kt hp hay suy din c th (tng lut) php ko theo m no Cn la chn sao cho kt qu hot ng ca b suy din:

ph hp vi nhng nh gi v mong mun ca cc chuyn gia m bo hiu sut tnh ton ca h thng.

47

Ta l mt h thng thng minh

Da vo u m kt lun nh vy?

48