Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Asia Balance South
Asia Balance South
Asia Balance South
Working Draft for Review and Comment Revised, June 26, 2006
6/26/06
Page 2
Introduction
The rise of China as a major power has triggered a new debate over the military balance in Asia, but it is only one of the trends shaping regional military forces. Taiwans faltering military development has helped destabilize the Taiwan Straits. Japan is reasserting its strategic role in the region, causing tension with both China and South Korea. North Koreas persistence in creating nuclear forces is changing the balance on the Korean Peninsula, as are cuts in US forces. The shift in US forces from Okinawa to Guam, and increased US reliance on long-range strike forces is also affecting the balance. There are fewer signs of significant shifts in the balance in Southeast Asia. The major change in the threat has been the emergence of transnational threats from neo-Salafi Islamist extremists, and continuing internal ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions. The main concern is internal security and not the military balance. In the case of South Asia, Indian and Pakistan continue to build-up their nuclear and missile forces, and India is seeking to expand its strategic reach in the Indian Ocean area. Kashmir remains a potential military fault line. Once again, however, the emergence of transnational threats from neo-Salafi Islamist extremists, and continuing internal ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions dominates the security problems in the region. Like the rest of Asia, internal security has become a dominant concern. The following analysis of quantitative force strength and trends can only address some of these issues. It focuses on conventional and nuclear forces, military spending, and other quantifiable aspects of the military balance. As such, it can only touch on a few aspects of force quality, and cannot begin to address the problem of internal security. There is no way to portray the relative strength of ideology and religion, and counts of the manpower strength of non-state actors are virtually meaningless. It is important, however, to look beyond debates over strategy and possible intentions and to consider those facts that can actually be measured. Far too often analysts pick key trends out of context, and exaggerate the overall presence or build-up of opposing military forces. Data on military spending are taken out of context, as are arms purchases that may introduce important new military technologies and capabilities but only have a limited impact on overall force modernization. Accordingly, the tables and charts that follow are not intended to provide a comprehensive picture of military capability or effort. They are only intended to be a tool that provides perspective. It is also important to recognize that they do have significant uncertainties. The sources they are drawn from are unclassified, and have many gaps and contradictions. The authors have had to extrapolate in some cases, and use a mix of sources in others. The data and trends shown are almost certainly broadly correct, but there is no way to create such an analysis that is precise and certain.
6/26/06
Page 3
6/26/06
Page 4
27 27 -
1,100 1,100 960 3,978 1,900 817 150 5,625 180 6,720 some 3,500 2,339
550 550 2,461 1,266 260 1,629 52 2,350 14,200 2,990 1,900
6.5 83 34 29 3 29 -
5 5 13 5 -
12 125 22 58 15 66 -
18 21 13 16 49 14 -
6/26/06
Page 5
55
24
13
15
1 8 9 8 28
6 1 -
2 3 -
8 6 10
6 3 1
10 14 9
11 13 47
2 10 46
19 18 7 10 32 1.2 7,000 34 15 20 34 17 6 51
8 3 9 1.4 9 9 -12 14
4 14 8 -
11 15 .8 -
4 5 -
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page 6
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page 7
Sri Lanka
62
Pakistan
2,461
Myanmar
150
India
3,978
Bangladesh
180
Afghanistan*
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page 8
Figure 4: South Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka-Total
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
Pakistan-Modern
Myanmar-Total
Myanmar-Modern
India Total
India Modern
Bangladesh Total
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Afghani Afghani Banglad Banglad India -stan -stan -esh esh Modern Modern Total Modern Total Type 85 T-72/T-80 T-90 Total MBTs 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 180 0 1,925 330 -2,255-
India Total
Sri Sri Myanm Myanm -Pakistan -Pakistan -Lanka -Lanka -ar ar-Total Modern Total Modern Total Modern 0 50 0 275 320 0 150 -595980 0 0 0 0 62
3,978
-50-
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page 9
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
1,000 Afghanistan
7,000
* * * * *
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page10
Figure 6: South Asian Modern AFVs versus Total Holdings of Other Armored Vehicles: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka-Total
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
Pakistan-Modern
Myanmar-Total
Myanmar-Modern
India-Total
India-Modern
Bangladesh-Total
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Afghani Afghani Banglad Banglad -India -stan -stan -esh -esh Modern Modern Total Modern Total BTR-80 BMP-2 APC Type 90 APC MBTs (Modern) Total AIFVs * * 0 0 0 * 70 0 0 0 -70400 0 1,000 0 2,355 -3,355-
-India Total
Sri Sri Myanm Myanm -Pakistan -Pakistan -Lanka -Lanka -ar ar-Total Modern Total Modern Total Modern 0 0 55 0 120 0 0 595 695 -7153,727 25 49 0 0 -74356
6,795
-55-
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page11
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Afghanistan * * 0 * * *
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page12
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Bangladesh 16 0 140 0
Myanmar 60 30 278 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page13
Figure 9: South Asian Modern Self-Propelled Artillery versus Total Holdings: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka-Total
963
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
4,291
Pakistan-Modern
260
Myanmar-Total
388
Myanmar-Modern
India-Total
12,675
India-Modern
150
Bangladesh-Total
140
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page14
Figure 10: South Asian Fixed and Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Afghanistan Air Force Hel Navy Hel Army Hel Air Force Fixed Wing Navy Fixed Wing Army Fixed Wing 13 0 0 5 0 0
Bangladesh 29 0 0 83 0 0
Myanmar 66 0 0 125 0 0
Sri Lanka 49 0 0 21 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page15
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Afghanistan Air Force Fixed Wing Navy Fixed Wing Army Fixed Wing 5 0 0
Bangladesh 83 0 0
India 852 34 0
Myanmar 125 0 0
Pakistan 331 9 0
Sri Lanka 21 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page16
Figure 12: Northeast Asian Modern Air Force Combat Aircraft versus Total Combat Aircraft: 2006
(Number in active service)
China-Total
China-Modern
Japan-Total
Japan-Modern
Taiwan-Total
Taiwan-Modern
US PACOM Total
US PACOM Modern
South Korea-Modern
North Korea-Total
North Korea-Modern 0 500 North North South -Korea -Korea -Korea Modern Total Modern Su-25 MiG-29 Hawkeye XP E-2T M-2000-5 F-16 EC-2 F-15 Su-30 Su-27 J-10 Total 34 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -54540 0 0 4 0 0 283 0 2 0 0 0 -289540 * 318 1,000 South Korea Total 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
US US -Taiwan -Taiwan -Japan -Japan -China -China PACO PACO Modern Total Modern Total Modern Total M M Total 0 0 6 4 57 146 0 0 0 0 0 -213479 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 150 0 0 0 -160300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 110 62 -1822643
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page17
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
50 Afghanistan
100 Bangladesh 29 0 0
150
250 Myanmar 66 0 0
350
13 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page18
Figure 14: South Asian Modern Attack and Armed Helicopters by Type: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
10
12
14
16
Bangladesh 0 0 0 0
India 0 0 0 9
Myanmar 0 0 0 0
Pakistan 6 0 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 13 1 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page19
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Afghanistan Landing Craft Amphibious Mine Other Patrol Missile Patrol Frigates Corvettes Destroyers Carriers Submarines SSNs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bangladesh 14 0 4 23 10 5 0 0 0 0 0
India 10 7 18 33 8 17 28 8 1 19 0
Myanmar 11 0 0 60 11 0 4 0 0 0 0
Pakistan 0 0 3 4 6 7 0 0 0 11 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page20
Figure 16: South Asian Major Naval Combat Ships in Key Powers: 2006
(Number in active service)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Bangladesh 10 5 0 0
India 8 54 1 19
Myanmar 11 4 0 0
Pakistan 6 7 0 11
Sri Lanka 2 0 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page21
Figure 17: South Asian Modern Major Missile and ASW Surface Vessels by Type: 2006
(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangaladesh
Afghanistan
0
Afghanistan Nandimithra PFM Sabqat Jalalat II Tariq FFG Houxin PFM Osa II PFM Vibhuti FSG Veer FSG Kora FSG Khukri FSG Talvar FFG Godavari FFG Brahmaputra FFG Rajput DDG Delhi DDG Viraat CV Durdarsha PFM Durbar PFM Osman FFG Bangabandhu FFG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10
Bangaladesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 1 1
20
India 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
30
Myanmar 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
40
Pakistan 0 1 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
50
Sri Lanka 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
60
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page22
0 Australia Collins SSK Cakra SSK Challenger SSK 6 0 0 Cambodia 0 0 0 Indonesia 0 2 0 Laos 0 0 0 Malaysia 0 0 0 New Zealand 0 0 0 Philippines Singapore 0 0 0 0 0 4 T hailand 0 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page23
Figure 19: Western Naval Combat Ships Affecting the Asian Balance: 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 US UK Russia
Submarines 80 15 54
Carriers 12 3 1
Missile Patrol 0 0 35
Mine 26 22 41
Amphibious 39 7 22
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.