BWD GLOBAL

SEPT. 25, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: SEPT. 25TH MAYORAL SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 452 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.6% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: In the race for Mayor, who would you support between Richard J. Berry, Pete Dinelli and Paul Heh? BERRY 60.6% DINELLI 25.9% HEH 5.1% UNDEC 8.4% Margin of Error: 4.6% 452 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahans political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor Berrys public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berrys win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in District 5. Donisthorpe conducted a poll of the Mayors race on August 27th earlier this year.

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Mayor Berry has a commanding lead as the race enters the last two weeks of the campaign. He is holding to over 60% of the vote by relying on his strong support of Republican (82%), Independent (59%) and Democratic (44%) likely voters. Berry has increased his lead among GOP and INDP voters since our last survey and has held his ground among DEM voters. While Berry has had large gains among DEM voters since our last survey, most of those gains have come from the previously-undecided DEM column. Berrys gains have not caught on in the REP and INDP groups, by and large. Demographic Crosstabs are on the next page.

CATEGORY OVERALL
GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE AREA WEST SIDE VALLEY

TOTAL 452

BERRY 274

BERRY% 60.6% 63% 50% 86% 53% 58% 38% 79% 53% 67% 49% 86% 80% 54% 45% 47% 82% 44% 82% 59% 36% 33% 63% 88% 35% 65% 42% 51% 70%

DINELLI DINELLI% 117 25.9% 25% 35% 10% 27% 28% 45% 8% 26% 21% 36% 6% 25% 34% 40% 35% 19% 40% 9% 26% 50% 56% 23% 3% 22% 24% 38% 32% 20%

HEH 23

HEH% 5.1% 5% 5% 2% 9% 5% 3% 9% 3% 5% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% 0% 0% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 13% 3% 7% 7% 4%

UNDEC 38

UND% 8.4% 8% 10% 2% 11% 9% 14% 5% 8% 7% 9% 3% 10% 10% 12% 18% 10% 11% 4% 9% 9% 6% 9% 5% 30% 9% 13% 10% 6%

SE/MID HEIGHTS NE HEIGHTS TOP VOTING ISSUE ABQ POLICE DEP CRIME EDUCATION ENVIRONMENT JOBS/ECON OTHER

30% 64% 64% 26% 72% 38%

46% 26% 23% 51% 17% 50%

11% 4% 5% 6% 4% 0%

14% 6% 8% 17% 7% 13%