Rates of Return 1926-2009

US Markets
Small
Stocks

Year
1926
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

-8.91
-13.42
39.66
108.74
61.46
81.98
-13.17
-1.91
-6.50
21.20
46.88
6.68
5.12
-5.60
63.70
24.62
4.30
-13.99
65.52
21.84
-4.72
29.48
-11.56
18.51
19.05
39.27
-6.90
104.15
50.43
-31.38
-17.95
17.96
0.20
-38.33
-27.40
59.51
49.03
27.63
24.96
41.32

Large
Stock
12.21
-11.20
20.80
26.54
20.96
36.11
-9.26
4.88
5.29
18.24
32.68
23.47
18.91
-1.74
52.55
31.44
6.45
-11.14
43.78
12.95
0.19
27.63
-8.79
22.63
16.67
12.50
-10.25
24.11
11.00
-8.33
4.10
14.17
19.14
-14.75
-26.40
37.26
23.98
-7.26
6.50
18.77

T-Bills
3.19
0.04
0.28
0.36
0.33
0.32
0.36
0.50
0.81
1.12
1.22
1.49
1.65
1.83
0.86
1.57
2.47
3.15
1.53
2.98
2.67
2.12
2.73
3.11
3.53
3.92
4.75
4.21
5.22
6.57
6.52
4.39
3.84
6.93
8.01
5.80
5.08
5.13
7.19
10.38

DJIA
153.03
121.93
107.15
134.92
143.32
169.66
191.52
177.48
179.78
179.67
216.28
257.41
270.34
275.84
334.34
442.69
493.21
476.07
491.26
632.57
618.02
691.74
639.14
714.69
834.09
910.70
872.78
879.48
903.96
875.72
753.12
884.87
950.12
924.07
759.13
802.89
975.20
894.33
821.13
844.40

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

EXPECTED RETURN
STANDARD DEVIATION

40.26
-1.71
27.84
34.34
-10.49
29.22
3.59
-14.30
18.61
9.01
-27.24
49.09
21.11
19.01
-5.59
34.01
16.54
23.82
-7.36
40.55
-6.20
29.25
-11.77
74.75
14.36
3.26
17.69
-8.26
-39.83
36.35

32.48
-4.98
22.09
22.37
6.46
32.00
18.40
5.34
16.86
31.34
-3.20
30.66
7.71
9.87
1.29
37.71
23.07
33.17
28.58
21.04
-9.10
-11.89
-22.10
28.69
10.88
4.91
11.78
3.53
-36.80
26.84

11.26
14.72
10.53
8.80
9.84
7.72
6.16
5.47
6.36
8.38
7.84
5.60
3.50
2.90
3.91
5.60
5.20
5.25
4.85
4.69
5.88
3.86
1.63
1.02
1.19
2.98
4.81
4.67
1.64
0.05

891.12
932.91
884.53
1190.78
1178.55
1327.99
1793.10
2277.53
2061.48
2510.34
2679.45
2929.04
3284.08
3524.92
3794.58
4499.39
5743.89
7443.15
8631.94
10482.61
10723.75
10205.77
9214.85
9006.64
10315.51
10546.66
11409.78
13178.02
11244.05
8885.66

17.73

12.51

4.21

2782.72
3726.531882

40

30

20

10

-10

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

1958

1955

1952

1949

1946

1943

1926

-20

-30

Portfolio Z will be chsoen as Z gives higer return that DJIA.

COV(Z,DJIA)
CV(Zt)
CV(DJIA)
CORRELATION

-6350.8165
1.16851215
1.33917075
-0.153093

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

1958

1955

1952

1949

1946

1943

1926
-10

Year
1926
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

Zt
2.418784255
-6.135
15.255
34
20.77
29.6825
-5.4275
0.9925
0.1025
10.42
20.5
8.2825
6.8325
-0.92
29.4925
14.8
3.9225
-4.7075
28.09
10.1875
0.2025
15.3375
-3.7225
11.84
10.695
14.9025
-1.9125
34.17
17.9675
-6.6425
-0.2025
10.2275
6.755
-9.805
-9.445
27.0925
20.7925
7.6575
11.46
20.2125

DJIA(RATE
OF
RETURN)

Zt-E(Zt)

RdjiaE(Rdjia)

-20.32281252
-12.12170918
25.91693887
6.225911651
18.37845381
12.88459271
-7.330827068
1.295920667
-0.061185894
20.37624534
19.01701498
5.023114875
2.034475105
21.20794664
32.40713047
11.41204906
-3.475193123
3.190707249
28.76480886
-2.300140696
11.92841656
-7.604013068
11.82057139
16.7065441
9.184860147
-4.163830021
0.767661954
2.783462955
-3.124032037
-13.99990865
17.49389208
7.373964537
-2.741758936
-17.84929713
5.764493565
21.46122134
-8.292657916
-8.184898192
2.833899626

-7.245841235
-15.79962549
5.590374511
24.33537451
11.10537451
20.01787451
-15.09212549
-8.672125489
-9.562125489
0.755374511
10.83537451
-1.382125489
-2.832125489
-10.58462549
19.82787451
5.135374511
-5.742125489
-14.37212549
18.42537451
0.522874511
-9.462125489
5.672874511
-13.38712549
2.175374511
1.030374511
5.237874511
-11.57712549
24.50537451
8.302874511
-16.30712549
-9.867125489
0.562874511
-2.909625489
-19.46962549
-19.10962549
17.42787451
11.12787451
-2.007125489
1.795374511
10.54787451

-27.2360379
-19.03493456
19.00371349
-0.687313726
11.46522843
5.971367337
-14.24405245
-5.617304711
-6.974411272
13.46301996
12.1037896
-1.890110503
-4.878750272
14.29472126
25.49390509
4.498823686
-10.3884185
-3.722518129
21.85158348
-9.213366074
5.015191178
-14.51723845
4.907346015
9.793318718
2.271634769
-11.0770554
-6.145563424
-4.129762422
-10.03725741
-20.91313402
10.5806667
0.460739159
-9.654984313
-24.76252251
-1.148731813
14.54799596
-15.20588329
-15.09812357
-4.079325752

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

23.815
5.6875
17.7475
18.5775
3.9125
19.165
8.5775
0.495
12.0475
14.2775
-3.69
22.7375
8.955
8.67
0.88
20.73
12.5025
16.8725
7.73
17.7425
-0.885
6.27
-7.6525
26.37
6.905
3.5325
9.7725
1.1525
-18.3375
15.8225

5.532922785
4.689604094
-5.185923615
34.62290708
-1.027057895
12.67998812
35.02360711
27.01634042
-9.48615386
21.77367716
6.73653768
9.314971356
12.12137765
7.333560693
7.650102697
18.57412415
27.65930493
29.58378381
15.97159805
21.43979221
2.300381298
-4.830213312
-9.709409481
-2.259505038
14.53227841
2.240800503
8.183823125
15.4975819
-14.67572518
-20.97455988

9.664625489
11.2932323

6.913225378

14.15037451
-3.977125489
8.082874511
8.912874511
-5.752125489
9.500374511
-1.087125489
-9.169625489
2.382874511
4.612874511
-13.35462549
13.07287451
-0.709625489
-0.994625489
-8.784625489
11.06537451
2.837874511
7.207874511
-1.934625489
8.077874511
-10.54962549
-3.394625489
-17.31712549
16.70537451
-2.759625489
-6.132125489
0.107874511
-8.512125489
-28.00212549
6.157874511

-1.380302592
-2.223621284
-12.09914899
27.7096817
-7.940283273
5.766762743
28.11038173
20.10311504
-16.39937924
14.86045179
-0.176687698
2.401745978
5.208152275
0.420335315
0.73687732
11.66089877
20.74607955
22.67055843
9.058372669
14.52656684
-4.61284408
-11.74343869
-16.62263486
-9.172730416
7.61905303
-4.672424874
1.270597747
8.584356521
-21.58895056
-27.88778526

40
30

2009

2006

2003

2000

Zt

20
10
0
1926
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988

DJIA

-10
1926
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988

2009

2006

2003

2000

-20

-30

-40

Rdjia-E(Rdjia) reflects more variability.

1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Zt-E(Zt)

Rdjia-E(Rdjia)

1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008

Rdjia-E(Rdjia)