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39,8
37,1
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17,5
28,9
40,1
26,2
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: , . . , "Forecasting Practices in the U.S. Corporations: Survey Results",
Interfaces, -, 1994. 1994.
( Informs), . . 2, 300, , 02904

6.13


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. , . (2002) "An Exploratory Investigation of New Product Forecasting Practices", The Journal of Product Innovation
Management 19, 133-43. ,


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6.14 ()

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: . . , "Using a Natural Experiment to Estimate Price
Elasticity: The 1974 Sugar Shortage and the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Market", Journal of Marketing,
1983, . 44-57. .
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50.7
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8850
6689
7004
7801
7091
6958
7357

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

6803
6136
8850
6689
7004
7801
7091
6958

28.7
28.1
27.9
27.9
27.6
27.0
26.7
26,6

50.6
51.4
52.5
51,0
50.4
54.2
50.5
52.0
52.6
52,1
52.7
52.7
51.3
51.0
50.3
52.0
52.9
49.4
53.5
52.2
51.7
53.0
51.6
53.2
54.2
52.2
56.4

26.7
26.7
26.7
26.6
26.6
26.8
27.1
27.6
28.3
28.6
28.9
29.3
29.8
30.9
31.6
31.6
31.6
31.7
31.7
31.7
31.1
30.9
30.5
30.3
29.7
29.8
29.9

7010
6627
7350
6952
7441
7519
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8084
7830
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7038
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6056
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5787
6043
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8404
9524
8973

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

7357
7010
6627
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6.17, (t=1,92),
(t=1,21), (f=5,02)
(t=.41) 5 .
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6.17 : 2
1. : : = 58.528 - .461 () + .00044 () - .00015 ( ) + .211 ()

(.242) (.00037) (.00037) (.042)


= 1.479 R 2 = .60
2. : = 60.041 - .538 () + .00033 () + .230 ()
(.244) (.00032) (.038)
= 1.468 R 2 = .65
3. : = 3.193 - .053 ( ) + .090 ( ) + .044 ( )
(.095) (.043) (.007)
= .028 R 2 = .68


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Pt = p + [q/M]Y(t-1)

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t
S(t) = [M Y(t-1)]Pt
Pt
S(t) = pM + [q-p]Y(t-1) q/M[Y(t-1)]2

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= C0 + c1Y(t-1) + c2[Y(t-1)]2

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6.20 2001 2006
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6). 2006. ,


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9.89

285.1

6.67

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

2
3
4
5
6

79.36
83.68
93.06
112.44
152.76

10.05
10.30
10.70
11.10
11.42

287.9
290.8
293.7
296.7
300.5

6.70
6.73
6.76
6.79
7.04

5.70
4.32
9.38
18.38
40.32

6.21

9,13

6,11
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5,42
2006
115,9

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119,3

(PDA Personal Digital Assistant)


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1995.
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283,7 ,
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1997). ,
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1996 284.000 . ,
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;
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6.22

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

(000)
63
150
200
285

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78.1

+24.0%

63
213
413
698
981.7

3,969
45,369
170,569
487,204
963,794

124.7
213.1
282.1
283.7
172.5

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6.23

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6.23.
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, .

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, 215-27.
Bass, Frank M., Trichy V. Krishnan, and Deepak C. Jain (1994) "Why the Bass Model Fits without
Decision Variables," Marketing Science 13 (), 203-23.
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Models of Consumer Durables: The Case of Color Television," Journal of Product Innovation
Management 6, 5-19.
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Cerf, C, and V Navasky (1984) The Experts Speak. New York: Pantheon Books.
Chambers, John C, Satinder K. Mullick, and Donald D. Smith (1971) "How to Choose the Right
Forecasting Technique," Harvard Business Review, -.
Cox, William E. (1979) Industrial Marketing Research. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Dahan, Ely, Andrew W. Lo, Tomaso Poggio, Nicholas T. Chan, and Adlar Kim (2002) Security Trading
of Concepts (STOC). Cambridge, MA: MIT.
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Dhalla, Nariman K., and Sonia Yuspeh (1976) "Forget the Product Life Cycle Concept!" Harvard
Business Review, -, 102-12.
Georgoff, David M, and Robert G. Murdick (1986) "Manager's Guide to Forecasting," Harvard Business
Review, -.
Horsky, Dan, and Leonard S. Simon (1983) "Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Marketing
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Jones, J. Morgan, and Christopher J. Ritz (1991) "Incorporating Distribution into New Product Diffusion
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McWilliams, Gary (1995) "At Compaq, a Desktop Crystal Ball," BusinessWeek, 20, 96.
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Elasticity: The 1974 Sugar Shortage and the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Market," Journal of Marketing, ,
44-57.
Sanders, Nada R., and Karl B. Manrodt (1994) "Forecasting Practices in U.S. Corporations: Survey
Results," Interfaces, -, 92-100.
Sellers, Patricia (1991) "A Boring Brand Can Be Beautiful," Fortune, 18, 169.
Sultan, Fareena, John U. Farley, and Donald R. Lehmann (1990) "A Meta-Analysis of Applications of
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Wheelwright, Steven C, and Spyros Makridakis (1985) Forecasting Methods for Management. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Wilton, Peter C, and Sunil Gupta (1987) "Combination of Forecasts: An Extension," Management
Science, March, 356-72. Wired, 1995, p. 76.
6


1964 66 ( 6.1). , , ,
() ( 6.2). ,
. (
).
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______________________________________

, , .
( 6.3).
6.1

1
1964
2
3
4
1
1965
2
3
4
1
1966
2
3
4

210
120
140
260
220
125
145
270
225
128
149
275

6.2

6.3

210
120
140
260

1
2
3
4


____________________________________________________

1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1

220
125
145
270
225
128
149
275

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
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0
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0
1

, :
= B0 + B1 () + B2 () + B3 () + B4 ()

. ,
.
. (,
B0
). , c
, c -1 . , .
. :
B0 = 256,5
B2 = 1,468
B2 = 45,6
B3 = 141,1
B4 = 122,2
:
:
= B0 +B1 () + B2(1) + B3(0) + B4 (0)
= (B0 +B2) + B1 ()
= 210 + 1,468 ()
:
= (B0 + B3) + B1 ()
115,5 + 1,468 ()
:
= (0 + 4) + 1 ()
= 134,4 + 1,468 ()
:
= 0 + 1 ()
= 256,6 + 1,468 ()
6.4.

( ,
).


1968,

= 155,5 + 1,468(18) = 142
6.4

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