Kinh nghim chi chng khon (8): u t th no l hp l?

u t th no l hp l?

Goerge Soros, mt trong nhng nh u t ln nht ti ph Wall, tng ni rng Khng c lnh vc no em li li nhun nhanh v ln bng u t chng khon. Qu tht, Soros khng h sai khi trn th trng chng khon c nh u t kim c c chc triu USD ch vng mt m vi mt k hoch u t hp l.

Th trng chng khon ang ngy cng pht trin mnh m hn vi nhng khon u t khng l. Khng t ngi xem vic u t chng khon nh tham gia vo mt cuc chi ngu hng vi hy vng vic mua chng khon s kim c nhiu tin nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, lnh vc u t y hp dn ny dng nh khng c ch cho nhng quyt nh theo cm tnh. Mun thnh cng bn phi c k nng phn on, xem xt v phn tch vn . iu quan trng hn c l phi hoch nh c mt k hoch u t thch hp. Bn phi tm hiu qu trnh hot ng ca cng ty cng nh ngnh ngh kinh doanh lin quan n loi c phiu . ng thi cng cn theo di v tm hiu tro lu gi c ln xung trn th trng, quyt nh lc no nn mua, lc no nn bn. cho vn tr nn d hiu, bn c th quan tm ti mt s vn c bn di y:

Bt u sm.

Vi hot ng u t, bn cng dnh thi gian cho n nhiu bao nhiu th bn s cng thu c nhiu li nhun by nhiu. Sau y l mt v d: Mt ngi u t 100 USD/thng bt u tui 25 trong vng 15 nm v sau dng thm tin vo c phiu ca mnh. Mt ngi khc cng u t 100 USD/thng trong vng 25 nm nhng bt u tui 40. Vy ai s v hu vi s lng li nhun nhiu hn tui 65? ng nhin l ngi u t sm hn.

Xc nh r mc ch u t.

Cng nh cc lnh vc u t khc, u t chng khon lun tn ti mi quan h t l thun gia mc thu nhp vi mc ri ro. Thu nhp cng cao th mc ri ro ti m n cng ln. Khi u t vo c phiu, bn thng k vng vo hai loi thu nhp, l thu nhp t c tc v t mc tng th gi c phiu. Thu nhp t c tc thng khng c m bo v cn ty thuc vo tnh hnh kinh doanh ca cng ty v quyt nh ca Hi ng qun tr. Thu nhp t mc tng th gi c phiu l biu hin ca mi quan h trc tip gia trin vng kinh doanh ca cng ty vi nhu cu mua c phiu trn th trng. Mt khi cng ty c nhng biu hin cho thy trin vng s pht trin tt th cc nh u t s mua c phiu vi hy vng gi c phiu s tng trong tng lai. Ngoi ra, u t vo c phiu cha ng nhiu loi ri ro

(bao gm ri ro v li sut, ri ro v tnh thanh khon, ri ro kinh doanh, ri ro lm pht...) trong khi thu nhp ch c hai hnh thc nh ni trn. Do vy bn cn phi xc nh mc ch u t mt cch r rng. y l mt yu t quan trng v l c s nh gi kt qu u t.

Mc ch u t cn phn nh li sng v mong mun ca bn. Nu bn theo ui mc tiu thu nhp t c tc th nn u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty kinh doanh dch v cng cng nh in, in thoi... hoc cc c phiu thng hng. Bn cng c th cc c phiu m th gi c xu hng tng v lu di to thu nhp tui gi. Cng c khi bn chn c phiu vi mc tiu c tnh cht u c thng qua vic mua bn cc c phiu m gi c bin ng mnh trong thi gian ngn. y l loi u t c mc ri ro cao nht. Tuy vy, nu bn l mi bt u bc vo th trng chng khon v mong mun hot ng u t n gin v d hiu th nn u t hn l u c.

La chn cng ty tt.

Cng ty tt thng l cng ty t n trong thi gian qua (thi gian cng di cng tt), v c li nhun cao, hin ti c li v trin vng tng lai sng sa.

La chn thi im mua c phiu.

Gi c phiu thng khng ng yn, m lc ln lc xung. Vy nu ta chu kh theo di tro lu, mua vo khi gi mc thp nht v bt u i ln, v bn ra lc th trng mc cao nht v bt u i xung th s c li cao. y cng l nguyn tc thng thng trong kinh doanh.

Gi mt loi c phiu lun lun chu nh hng ca nhng tro lu ln xung gi ca TTCK. Trong thi k ln gi, th trng thng ko theo 70-80% loi c phiu cng ln. Khi xung gi cng tng t. Bi v cng ging nh th trng hng ho, khi c nhiu ngi cng mua mt mn hng no th gi hng s ln, ko theo cc hng ha khc cng ln. Gi mt loi chng khon s ln khi c nhiu ngi cng mua, v gi s tt xung khi c nhiu ngi cng bn.

Xy dng mt danh mc u t tt nht.

Bn hy lm iu ny mt cch n gin, khi u nu bn mun u t 100.000 USD vo nm loi c phiu, mi loi s c u t 20.000 USD. Bn khng c gng mua mt s lng c phiu no , bn ch u t mt s tin nh cho mi loi c phiu. Nhng ng bao gi qu h hi trong vic mua c phiu, ng

mua c nm loi c phiu mt ln. Hy thi hnh tng bc mt, hy c phiu ca bn t chng minh chng bng cch ch ra mt s pht trin no trc khi bn u t 100% s tin.

Trnh nhng loi c phiu phc tp.

Khi bn mi khi s u t, bn s c nghe rt nhiu v nhng c hi y kch thch c th tm ki m nhng li nhun khng l. Danh sch nhng c m by dnh cho nhng con ngi ang h hi v c tin bc chn vo th trng bao gm chng khon nc ngoi, cc qu u t c nh, hp ng quyn chn, hng giao theo hn, tri phiu kh hon (convertible bonds), tri phiu cp thp v gi tr (junk bond), nhng loi chng khon min thu v cc cng ty bt ng sn.

Nhng loi chng khon trn tuy li nhun cao nhng rt phc tp. Nu bn khng c kinh nghi m bn rt d gp phi ri ro. Nhng ri ro kh ln l l do chnh nhng nh u t mi hoc nhng nh u t cha c kinh nghim nn trnh u t vo nhng th k trn.

Khng mua nhng loi c phiu gi thp.

Nhng loi c phiu gi thp thng thng hp dn mi ngi vi mt l do duy nht: r. Nhng trong khi n ang quyn r mi ngi mua chng vi gi r th hot ng ti chnh ca chng li rt km v chm chp so vi nhng loi c phiu khc trong ngnh.

u t theo l tnh ch khng phi theo cm tnh.

Trong u t chng khon, mt sai l m thng gp ca cc nh u t l h thng hy vng khi nn lo ngi v ngc li. Khi c phiu rt gi 8% di gi mua ban u v b thua l, cc nh u t thng hay hy vng chng tng gi tr li trong khi thc s h nn lo ngi rng c th s mt thm mt s tin na v nn phn ng bng cch bn c phiu i v chp nhn thua l thay v c mi th y nguyn. Khi c phiu tng gi v tm c li nhun, h li s rng c th nh mt li nhun y v bn chng qu sm. Nhng s tht c phiu ang tng gi l mt du hiu cho thy chng thc s mnh v c l quyt nh mua ban u ca h l hon ton chnh xc. William J.Oneil, mt chuyn gia chng khon ni ting trn th trng ph Wall, chia s nhng quan im: Theo kinh nghi m ca ti, cch tt nht l thnh lp nhng quy lut mua v bn t nhng nghin cu v lch s th trng - nhng quy lut da trn nn tng cu hi thc s th trng ang hot ng nh th no, v trong qu kh mi khi th trng gp hon

cnh y th din bin nh th no, nhng quy lut da trn s thng k khoa hc ch khng phi da trn nhng kin hay thnh kin c nhn.

Ti u t.

Nu bn kim c 6% li nhun trn 1000 USD tri phiu v dnh ht s li ny trong nm. Sau 20 nm bn s nhn c 1200 USD. Nhng nu bn ti u t ht s li nhun ny, bn s c c 2662 USD trong cng thi gian. l sc mnh ca ti u t - li nhun m s to ra li nhun con.

Cn trng khi th trng lin tc xung dc.

Khi m th trng chng khon c nhng bin ng d di, ngi ta bt u t cu hi: liu bn c nn tip tc mua c phiu khi gi rt? Cc chuyn gia cng khuyn co rng, l mt hnh ng mang tnh ri ro cc k cao.

Sut thp k 90, chin thut tactic - chin thut mua c phiu khi gi rt, t ra hiu qu. Trong thi gian , bt k khi no, mt c phiu no ni ring hoc th trng ni chung gi m gi th cc nh u t li mc hu bao ra mua c phiu vo. V h kim c tin t chin thut u t ny. Th nhng, gi y khi m

gi c phiu gim mnh trong mt thi gian di th khng phi bt c mt c phiu no cng c th tng gi tr li c. Song, cng c th c nhng vin ngc b che khut trong s nhng c phiu b rt gi. Nghin cu ca cho thy, nhiu c phiu sau khi b c sc rt gi li tip tc trt dc di. Cng c mt s c phiu sau c sc li cho mc li trung bnh dng trong mt s khong thi gian quan st. iu ny chng t rng nu bit la chn danh mc u t mt cch khn ngoan th th m ch ngay c vic u t vo cc c phiu b c sc rt gi cng s mang li li nhun. Mt s chuyn gia chng khon gi cc nh u t nn a vo danh mc u t ca mnh t cc cng ty bn l; cc cng ty truyn thng qung co v cc cng ty dch v cho n cc cng ty ti chnh ln. Ngc li, nn trnh u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty cng ngh cao, cng ty hng khng, du m,...

Sau cng, xy dng c mt k hoch u t thch hp tht khng d dng i vi nhng nh u t mi bc chn vo th trng chng khon. Bn cn bit r bn thn mnh v th phn tch theo cc vn nu trn trc khi a ra quyt nh u t. Tuy nhin, bn cng khng nn p dng mt cch cng nhc m cn c s iu chnh mc tiu, chin lc mt cch linh ng cho ph hp vi nhng bin ng ca th trng.