I.

II.
III.
IV.

:
1. ,
2. - ,,
3. , /2010-2012 /
:
1. - ,,
2. ,

,
,
.

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.
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-

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-
.

2008 2 6- 01/28
-
- .
. ,
.
.
,
. ,
.
,
,
.
, . 1991 9 -
123
.
, 5 1996
205 , 2001 239 , 2006 287 , 2011 329
.

.

. : ,.....

, 12
. ,
:

/ 1/

Y ,

28.5

, ,

, ,

, , , Y

8.1

5.8

, , Y

2.8

, Y

3.9

, , , Y

0.8

10

6.1

11

, ,
Y
, Y

12

1.6
21.3

15.7

0.9
4.5
100.0

,
28,5 , , , 21,3
, 15,7 65 .

.
: / 2/

: ,

, ,

//

2008
112.8

2009
109.0

2010
113.6

2011
108.3

2012*
105.8

118.8
100.6
106.4

105.9
109.0
102.6

128.4
104.2
99.3

105.4
110.2
113.9

108.0
120.6
107.7

*-

/ 1/
, , ,

140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

,
, ,

, 2010 113,6
4,6

22,5 . 2011 ,
5,3
, 6,0 , 14,6
, 23,0
.
2,5 6,2
.
:
- . :
CPI-
P1-,,
P2-,
P3-
P4-

/ 3/

2010

2011

2012

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CPI
100.0
101.6
100.9
105.4
104.4
98.9
97.0
100.2
99.6
101.1
100.4
101.8
101.9
101.3
96.9
100.8
105.0
97.6
100.7
99.9
102.0
99.0
102.7
101.0
102.1
101.3
101.0
99.8
100.1
100.1
100.5
100.0
101.3
100.9

P1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.7
100.0
100.0
108.2
104.6
100.0
98.0
100.0
100.5
100.6
100.2
101.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.6
96.0
100.4
100.2
100.0
100.4
99.2
100.0

P2
100.0
116.9
110.4
153.6
121.9
87.0
84.0
78.5
87.4
108.5
99.5
120.4
100.8
110.0
78.8
103.3
140.3
97.3
105.3
92.9
101.9
94.5
105.1
104.5
110.5
129.1
101.2
107.2
101.2
99.2
102.6
92.4
93.7
95.5

P3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.7
100.4
100.0
100.0
100.5
100.3
100.0
100.0
101.9
101.3
104.3
100.0
100.0
103.3
100.0
100.7
102.2
101.7

P4
100.0
98.5
101.3
100.0
99.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
104.3
100.0
97.1
110.9
102.1
94.6
103.6
96.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
113.3
96.0
100.0
96.0
97.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.2
100.0

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99995075
R Square
0.99990151
Adjusted R
Square
0.96655832
Standard
Error
1.0651576
Observations
34
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
P1
P2
P3
P4

Significance
SS
MS
F
F
4 345542.8832 86385.7208 76140.23598
0.00000
30 34.03682154 1.13456072
34
345576.92

Coefficients
0
0.3635
0.1054
0.5098
0.0209

Standard
Error
#N/A
0.0841
0.0122
0.0971
0.0547

t Stat
#N/A
4.3207
8.6410
5.2479
0.3816

P-value
#N/A
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.7055

Lower 95%
#N/A
0.1917
0.0805
0.3114
-0.0908

Upper
95%
#N/A
0.5353
0.1303
0.7082
0.1325

:
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99995051
R Square
0.99990103
Adjusted R
Square
0.96763658
Standard
Error
1.05037676
Observations
34
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

3
31
34

SS
MS
F
345542.718 115180.906 104397.5439
34.20203149 1.10329134
345576.92

Significance F
0.00000

Coefficients
0
0.36685042
0.1062456
0.5263849

Intercept
P1
P2
P3

Standard
Error
t Stat
#N/A
#N/A
0.08250762 4.44626116
0.011839012 8.97419493
0.085634877 6.14685178

P-value
#N/A
0.00010
0.00000
0.00000

Lower 95%
#N/A
0.198575025
0.082099775
0.351731415

Upper 95%
#N/A
0.53512582
0.13039142
0.70103838

CPI=0.367*P1+0.11*P2+0.526*P3
Significance F <0.01

99%-

.
p- value < 0.01
.
, , 1
0.367-, , 1
0.11 ,
1 0.526

96.8% , 3.2%
.
.

:
,,

-

:
/
2/

6000

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2008

2009
9
,

201
10
20
011
,1,

2
2012

2009
2100

,



56000 2009

2,7

2008

910

2009-20112

2010

2011

2012

CPI
P1
P2
CPI
P1
P2
CPI
P1
P2

1
100.0
1700
700
101.9
3500
800
102.1
4300
800

2
101.6
2500
700
101.3
3500
800
101.3
5700
800

3
1000.9
2
2800
700
9
96.9
3
3500
800
1001.0
5
5700
800

4
105.4
4500
700
100.8
4300
800
99.8
6000
750

5
104.4
5800
600
105.0
4300
800
100.1
6000
730

6
9
98.9
5
5000
600
9
97.6
3
3500
800
1000.1
6
6000
750

7
97.0
4000
600
100.7
4000
800
100.5
6200
750

8
100.2
2300
700
99.9
3600
800
100.0
5700
750

9
9
99.6
2
2000
800
1002.0
3500
800
1001.3
5
5300
750

10
11
101.1 100.4
2200 2300
800
800
99.0 102.7
3300 3500
800
800
100.9
5000
750
/ 3 /

112
1001.8
3000
800
1001.0
3800
800

:
CPI-
P1- / /
P2- /1- /
:
Dependent Variable: CP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/12 Time: 00:41
Sample (adjusted): 2010M02 2012M10
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.002070
0.033877

0.000682
0.014676

3.035949
2.308337

0.0048
0.0278

M
N

R-squared
0.246595
Adjusted R-squared 0.222292
S.E. of regression
2.347484
Sum squared resid
170.8311
Log likelihood
-73.95374
Durbin-Watson stat 2.817252

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.

0.027273
2.661916
4.603257
4.693954
4.633774

:
CPI = 0.00207*P1+0.033877*P2
prob < 0.05
.
1
0,00207- .
0,033877- .

CPI- 22,23% ,
.

. Durban-Watson-
. (D- 2,82 )

10

.: , , 1
0.367-, , 1
0.11 ,
1 0.526 .
,
.
,
.
-
:
1 0,00207 ,
1 0,033877
. 2009 2100
, 5600
2009 2,7 .
4 ,
.
2008 910
2009-2012

11

1. , ,2010
2. ,2010
3. ,2011
4. ,2008
5. , /2010-2012/10 /

12