CHAPTER 4: Example 2

Forecasting

Data
Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Demand

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute

Weights
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

12.17
14.33
17.00
20.50
23.83
27.50
28.33
23.33
18.67

3.83
4.67
6.00
5.50
6.17
0.50
-10.33
-7.33
-4.67
4.33
0.48

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

15.33333333

Squared

Abs Pct Err

1
2
3
3.83
4.67
6.00
5.50
6.17
0.50
10.33
7.33
4.67
49.00
5.44
MAD
SE

14.69
21.78
36.00
30.25
38.03
0.25
106.78
53.78
21.78
323.33
35.93
MSE
6.80

23.96%
24.56%
26.09%
21.15%
20.56%
01.79%
57.41%
45.83%
33.33%
254.68%
28.30%
MAPE

Forecasting
35
30

Value

25
20
15
10
5
0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12