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    PM Estimation V1.0

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    Rohit Goidani
    The document discusses project estimation and provides guidance on developing accurate estimates. It outlines key factors that influence estimation accuracy, such as the stability of requirements and the skills of the project team. Common decision traps in estimation, like overconfidence and anchoring on convenient facts, are also described. The document recommends consistent estimation methods, gathering historical data, and avoiding politics. It also covers estimation approaches, the relationship between effort and time, and calculating estimates using most optimistic, pessimistic, and likely values.

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    PM Estimation V1.0

    Uploaded by

    Rohit Goidani
    2 views13 pages
    The document discusses project estimation and provides guidance on developing accurate estimates. It outlines key factors that influence estimation accuracy, such as the stability of requirements and the skills of the project team. Common decision traps in estimation, like overconfidence and anchoring on convenient facts, are also described. The document recommends consistent estimation methods, gathering historical data, and avoiding politics. It also covers estimation approaches, the relationship between effort and time, and calculating estimates using most optimistic, pessimistic, and likely values.

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    Estimation topic - project management presentation on ppt

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    The document discusses project estimation and provides guidance on developing accurate estimates. It outlines key factors that influence estimation accuracy, such as the stability of requirements and the skills of the project team. Common decision traps in estimation, like overconfidence and anchoring on convenient facts, are also described. The document recommends consistent estimation methods, gathering historical data, and avoiding politics. It also covers estimation approaches, the relationship between effort and time, and calculating estimates using most optimistic, pessimistic, and likely values.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    2 views13 pages

    PM Estimation V1.0

    Uploaded by

    Rohit Goidani
    The document discusses project estimation and provides guidance on developing accurate estimates. It outlines key factors that influence estimation accuracy, such as the stability of requirements and the skills of the project team. Common decision traps in estimation, like overconfidence and anchoring on convenient facts, are also described. The document recommends consistent estimation methods, gathering historical data, and avoiding politics. It also covers estimation approaches, the relationship between effort and time, and calculating estimates using most optimistic, pessimistic, and likely values.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 13

    Project Management

    Estimation

    Estimating!
    Part Art, Part Science

    Importance of Good Estimates


    Time (Realistic Deadlines)
    Most projects are late because the time was underestimated work expands to fit the time available going too fast influences quality

    Money
    within 20% is probably close enough for most projects

    Accuracy is based on:


    degree to which the planner has properly estimated the size of the product
    ability to translate a size estimate to a time estimate (time = $) degree to which the project plan reflects the abilities of the team

    stability of requirements and project environment

    Basis of Good Estimates


    Consistent Methods Gathering of Historical Data

    Minimal variance in Teams' Skill


    Avoidance of Politics and Egos Experience

    Decision Traps
    Plunging In: Gathering info and arriving at conclusion too quickly. Frame Blindness: Solving the wrong problem. The current situation might look like a past situation. Overconfidence: Failing to collect key information due to confidence in solution or judgment. Shortcuts or "Rules of Thumb": Not collecting key information or anchoring on convenient facts.

    Decision Traps
    Shooting from the hip: Trying to keep all of factors straight in your head versus using a systematic approach. Group Failure: Assuming that a group of smart people will make good choices. Fooling yourself about feedback: Misreading past evidence to your advantage. The classic behavioral trap, if something went right, it was skill, if something went wrong, it was bad luck. Not keeping track: Not tracking results, so no feedback loop.

    Estimation Approaches
    Analogy
    Top Down Bottom Up Empirical Methods

    Required Effort
    A lot of people working for a short time. One person working for a long time.

    People Total Effort to Complete the Project

    Time

    Real Required Effort


    The work of 1 person over 6 months can not be done by 6 people in 1 month!

    People Total Effort

    Time

    Other Factors
    Ability to reuse? Level of Personnel's Experience?

    Types of Estimates
    Most Optimistic (MO) Most Pessimistic (MP) Most Likely (ML)
    MO < ML < MP

    Plan Estimate = [MO + MP +4X(ML)] / 6

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