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(Working Paper) No.

651
__________________________________________________________

Jesus Felipe Utsav Kumar


, ,

2011
_______________________________________________________

* ,
, . Joao
Farinha .

The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress
by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to
disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals.
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit,
nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service.
Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy
responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in
the United States and abroad.
Levy Economics Institute
P.O. Box 5000
Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000
http://www.levyinstitute.org
Copyright Levy Economics Institute 2012 All rights reserved.


( )
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ulc q = wn / (q / L)

(1)

wn , q
, L ( ).


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. ,
. , Syverson (2010)
: (i)

2 (ii) .


.3 Syverson

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1

O Paul Krugman, , ,
. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/et-tu-wolfgang/.
2

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4 McCombie Thirlwall [1994]
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,
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Verdoorn.
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12 196375.
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,

Fagerber (1988),
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19781994,
.7
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(1),
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() ().
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, , . De Benedictis
(1998)
7

,

(markup) (ulcs), Fagerberg (1988)
( y ) y = [ ulc ulc* ] + y* ,
* , ^ ,
,
. ,
.
,
Marshall-Lerner (,
).


( ) (
), Kaldor. ,
(
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(,
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,

. (,

),
.8
.
2.

(1),
(.., , )
.
,
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. ,
( )
, :

ULC = wn / ALP = wn / (VAr / L) =

wn
(VAn / P) / L

(2)

, ULC , wn
, ALP , VAr
( ), L
, P .

8

,
.
,
.

, ,
. (2), , (1).
1 12
19802007, (2).
.
(http://stats.oecd.org).

.
, 2005.

.
.
.

.

, 15 (.. ).
2007 1980 9,5 (
8,45%).
4,7 4,5 ( 5,31% 5,07%,
). 3,5 (
3,64%).
, 1,6 1,7 (
1,21% 1,55%, ).

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

.2

ULC
.4

.6

.8

1:

AUT

BEL

FIN

FRA

GER

GRC

IRL

ITA

LUX

NLD

PRT

ESP

Source: OECD and authors estimates


Note: AUTAustria, BELBelgium, FINFinland, FRAFrance, GERGermany, GRCGreece, IRLIreland,
ITAItaly, LUXLuxembourg, NLDNetherlands, PRTPortugal, ESPSpain

,

. ,
,
, 198095.
, 2007 1980
(4,3 ,
5,57%), (5,2 , 6,33%),
(5,4 , 6,43%).
(2 ,
2,66%). 1995 (
), (
2007 1995 2,2
6,7%), ( 1,91,
5,54%), ( 1,66,
4,31%). ,
, .
,

, , .

, , . ,
, (ULC),
(2), ,
.
2 2 11
.
, , ,
1980. 1995,
.
, , , (
).

Belgium

Finland

France

Greece

Ireland

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

0
1
.5
0

ULC relative to Germany

.5

Austria

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

2:

10

Luxembourg

Portugal

Spain

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

Netherlands

.2

.4

.6

.8

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

.2

ULC relative to Germany

.4

.6

.8

Italy

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

2:

Source: OECD and authors estimates


.
. ,

. 5107 HS6 125 , Abdon (2010)
(
) .
,
. 2113 5107
( 2241
).9 ,
(..,
(6,2%), (31,6%), (14,7%),
(16%),
(2,9%), (17,4%) ,

(17%),

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200107.

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100 ,
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1). ,
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3,5%
). ,
( 33,1% 21,7%,
,
), (
) (. 2).
,
.

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(
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.
.
.

12

3.
(2) :

ULC =

w L
Total labor Compensation
wn
n
= n P =
P = s l * P
(VAn / P ) / L VAn
VAn

(3)


n
( ), s l
( ).
:

VAn Wn + n wn L + rn K
w L r K
1 n + n s ln + s nk
VAn VAn

(4)

, VAn
(Wn) (n). Wn
(wn)
(L),
(rn) ().
s n ( wn L VAn ) (
l

) s n ( rn K VAn )
k
( ). , 1.

.10
3 3
,
12 . 1980 2007,
, , , , ,
, , , .
,
. .

10

,


,
(.., ) .
http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.asp?lang=e&subject=19.
,
,
.

13

( 2007
1980 1,15. 1980
12 , 0,6.). , 12

. , ,
1
.

Belgium

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

ULC

Price index (right axis)

0
0

.2

.4

.5

.6

.8

.2

.4

.5

.6

.8

Austria

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

3:

Labor Share

14

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

ULC

Price index (right axis)

.2

.2

.4

.6

.4

.8

.6

.8

1 1.2

.2

.2

.4

.6

.4

.8

.6

.8

1 1.2

Ireland

1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

3:

Labor Share

Source: OECD and authors estimates


:
. .

; ' , .
,
.
,


. ,
, 4 .
, .
, 5.11


11

,
, .
.

15

250
200
150

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

100

Capital Share, 1980=100

300

4: , 19802007

AUT

BEL

FIN

FRA

GER

GRC

IRL

ITA

LUX

NLD

PRT

ESP

Source: OECD and authors estimates


,

.
,
.

. :

UKC =

r K
Total capital compensation
rn
P = s kn * P
= n P =
(VAn / P) / K VAn
VA
n

(5)

, UKC , rn
, VAn , K
.
5
. Marquetii (2003) , ,
. , Glyn (1997)
.

.

16


, :
;
. 1
12
, 19802007 19952007.
. , ,
.
,


. ,
.

.4
.2

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

Unit Capital Cost

.6

5:

AUT

BEL

FIN

FRA

GER

GRC

IRL

ITA

LUX

NLD

PRT

ESP

Source: OECD and authors estimates

17

1:
2007 1980 1995
2007 relative to 1980

2007 relative to 1995

Country

ULC

UKC

ULC

UKC

Austria

1.46

5.39

1.02

1.55

Belgium

1.92

2.73

1.18

1.32

Finland

2.18

3.41

1.11

1.33

France

2.02

3.98

1.17

1.32

Germany

1.38

2.33

0.97

1.24

Greece

17.06

12.10

1.61

1.55

Ireland

2.63

7.02

1.40

1.85

Italy

3.80

7.26

1.30

1.53

Luxembourg

1.88

3.93

1.25

1.58

Netherlands

1.51

2.47

1.27

1.44

Portugal

8.94

10.71

1.42

1.44

Spain

4.04

6.85

1.40

1.72

Source: OECD and authors estimates

,

.
,
,
.


.

(..,

),
, . ,
.
.

18

1980;
1995,
(ALC)

ALC ALC.
( )
.
( ALC)
(CPI).


.
2
(ALC) (ULC).
, 19802007,

. 19952007,
.
2:

Relative to 1980=100
Country

Relative to 1995=100

Real ALC

ULC

Country

Real ALC

ULC

Austria

1.257

1.457

Austria

1.025

1.025

Belgium

1.293

1.915

Belgium

1.089

1.185

Finland

1.715

2.184

Finland

1.219

1.110

France

1.263

2.024

France

1.129

1.174

Germany

1.102

1.382

Germany

0.951

0.972

Greece

17.056

Greece

1.370

1.612

Ireland

2.627

Ireland

1.299

1.397

3.802

Italy

1.021

1.302

1.880

Luxembourg

1.128

1.247

1.513

Netherlands

1.127

1.265

8.936

Portugal

1.178

1.419

4.038

Spain

1.005

1.395

Italy

1.232

Luxembourg
Netherlands

1.076

Portugal
Spain

1.212

19

6 6
12 .
, ,
.12 ,
, .

19802007:
2007 1980 1,10 1,07, (
0,36% 0,27%, ).13
,

. ,
,

19952007,
, ,
( ),
2007 1995 1,33,
(1,16) (1,17) .14


12

, , , ,

.
13


.
.
14

(1) (2)
2 . , Posner
(2010)


. ,
(3) , , (

) ,

. (3) ULC = s + P.
(,
),
,
.
. (1)

.

20

6:

Austria

Belgium

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

real ALC 2005 prices


labor productivity per person employed

6:

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000

real ALC 2005 prices


labor productivity per person employed

Source: OECD and authors estimates

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

21

4.


( ),

, ,
. ' ,


. ,
. ,

!
:

pi q i
sln = k
i i
i =1
p q
i =1
k

* sli = i *sli
i =1

(6)

i i
, sli
. , sli
i i.

sli =

wi li ulci
=
pi qi
pi

(7)

, wi i, li
i, pi
i, qi i, ulci
i. (7)

.
(3), (6), (7),
(ULC) :


k
p q
ULC = sln * P = k i i
i =1
pi qi
i =1

* sli * P = i *sli * P =

i =1

k i wi li
k i ulci
*
P
=
*

*

* P
pi qi
pi
i =1
i =1

(8)

22

,

.
.
(8) , ,
. ,

, , ULC

i =1

* ulci ,

: (i)
(), (ii) i).
:
(T) (NT).
(8) :

ULC = sln * P = (T * slT + NT * slNT ) * P

(9)

, T NT . ,
(8) :

ulc
ULC = sln * P = T * T

pT

ulc NT
+ NT *

pNT


* P

(10)

, 12
, (P),
11 12 .

:

sln = T * slT + NT * slNT + T * slT + NT * slNT

(11)

.
; (11)
,
:
(i) ( slT , slNT ) ( ulc / p)
sln ). 11,

slT = slNT =0, T + NT = 1 T + NT = 0 ,

n
l

T
l

NT
l
NT
l

s = T * s + NT * s
T * ( slT s
T
l

NT
l

:
NT
= T * (s sl ) .
T
l

) < 0 . : ()

) , () T > 0 (slT < slNT ) .


markup ( i ) , ,
T < 0 ( s > s

23

pi = (1 + i )ulci

(12)

(7) (12),
markup:

sil =

ulci
1
=
pi
(1 + i )

(13)

()
markup , (13)

, , slT > slNT () .

( NT > 0 ) , ,
markup ( ,
) ( T < 0 ). ,

.
(ii) ,
( T , NT ) ,

sln = T * slT + NT * slNT . (,


slT
NT
< NT , , :
T
sl



, ()
.
, markup,
( siNT < 0 )

sln < 0 )

( siT > 0 ) , ,

slT
NT
. ,
s
l
markup,
markup
markup .
5. Kaldor, ,



. ,
,

24

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,
.

, ceteris paribus. ,

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(
)
.
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Kaldor ,
.
, ,
. Kalecki (Osiatynski 1991)

(Blecker
1999). , Goodwin (1972)
,
,

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, .

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.
( )
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),
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,
, , Onaran (2007)
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25

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markup .
,
;
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.
, .
, .
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.

,

. , s kn .
, , s ln ,

, Kalecki
( ,
). ,
. (,
),
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.
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,
.
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,
()
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(Foley Michl 1999: 10).

26



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6.

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(i)
( ) .

.
(ii)
.
(
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(iii)
( Kaldor),
.
12
19802007,
.
.
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27


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.

29

Countries

1:

Share in world exports


Top 10

Top 100

Austria

1.73

1.62

1.58

1.49

1.10

1.23

0.85

0.23

Belgium

3.76

2.26

3.21

2.89

2.01

2.05

2.60

1.85

China

1.22

1.28

2.72

8.08

10.78

13.97

12.96

13.35

Finland

0.50

1.09

1.05

1.38

0.59

0.72

0.29

0.22

France

5.11

3.57

5.78

6.08

5.43

5.58

3.08

1.59

Germany

12.24

17.99

17.73

13.50

8.01

7.64

4.65

1.89

Greece

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.16

0.13

0.24

0.31

0.37

Ireland

1.25

0.80

2.71

2.26

1.21

1.50

0.51

0.11

Italy

1.40

3.07

4.04

4.30

3.15

3.87

4.69

2.56

Luxembourg

0.81

0.15

0.14

0.30

0.15

0.20

0.11

0.03

Netherlands

5.11

3.50

2.93

3.51

3.17

2.76

3.50

2.73

Portugal

0.05

0.04

0.30

0.23

0.48

0.48

0.56

0.52

Spain

0.23

0.88

2.23

2.36

1.70

1.85

2.46

1.28

*
200107.
** ( )
. 10
100 ,
, 1
6 .

30

2:
No. of products
(RCA>=1)

Complexity
rank

Austria

1,369

Belgium
China

Countries

Share in countrys exports


Top
10

Top
100

0.23

6.17

30.38

23.29

19.00

14.99

8.83

3.52

1,470

10

0.23

3.84

27.81

20.30

15.55

11.26

12.12 12.96

1,962

51

0.02

0.53

5.71

13.90

20.75

19.52

15.59 24.53

Finland

765

0.10

6.11

30.09

31.99

15.19

13.14

4.52

5.08

France

1,788

11

0.16

3.20

26.18

22.33

22.00

16.09

7.54

5.86

Germany

2,113

0.19

7.90

39.62

24.50

16.01

10.85

5.61

3.40

Greece

1,060

52

0.01

0.39

3.82

14.78

12.50

17.21

18.60 33.09

Ireland

421

12

0.13

2.28

39.06

26.27

15.60

13.79

3.97

2,239

24

0.06

3.47

23.16

20.06

16.16

14.12

14.54 11.96

Luxembourg

588

0.78

3.88

19.22

33.53

18.10

17.60

8.27

Netherlands

1,312

13

0.25

4.75

20.23

19.72

19.60

12.12

13.08 15.26

Portugal

1,188

53

0.02

0.42

15.32

9.84

22.09

15.57

15.53 21.66

Spain

1,745

28

0.02

1.89

24.18

20.80

16.53

12.77

14.46 11.25

Italy

1.32

3.28

* 200107.
** ( )
. 10 100
, , 1
6 .

31

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