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    Petroleum Update For Distribution

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    mwirishscot2
    The attached spreadsheets show the continuing demand destruction of petroleum distillates in the USA, a destruction that began in earnest in October 2007, the same time period as the beginning of the "recession" and the tumble of the USA markets. This demand destruction has accelerated throughout 2008 with one big spike in the fall brought on by hurricane demand and resulting supply shortfalls in the SE in the months of Sep, Oct and Nov. Since then the demand destruction has more directly been tied completely to lost economy. Please also note that the last acknowledged recession, in 2001/2002 resulted in only a 0.1% drop in demand - paling in comparison to last year's drop, and 2009's plunge. A second graph shows the performance of gasoline demand destruction which is now accelerating in the USA as economic concerns constrain the normal travel seasons. These numbers show that the economy of areas built around tourism will probably take a major hit over the summer months. Finally, the numbers coupled with continued acceleration in unemployment and degradation of such measures as durable goods show that the USA economy is far from recovering, and in fact has not yet found it's quote "bottom".

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    Petroleum Update For Distribution

    Uploaded by

    mwirishscot2
    171 views2 pages
    The attached spreadsheets show the continuing demand destruction of petroleum distillates in the USA, a destruction that began in earnest in October 2007, the same time period as the beginning of the "recession" and the tumble of the USA markets. This demand destruction has accelerated throughout 2008 with one big spike in the fall brought on by hurricane demand and resulting supply shortfalls in the SE in the months of Sep, Oct and Nov. Since then the demand destruction has more directly been tied completely to lost economy. Please also note that the last acknowledged recession, in 2001/2002 resulted in only a 0.1% drop in demand - paling in comparison to last year's drop, and 2009's plunge. A second graph shows the performance of gasoline demand destruction which is now accelerating in the USA as economic concerns constrain the normal travel seasons. These numbers show that the economy of areas built around tourism will probably take a major hit over the summer months. Finally, the numbers coupled with continued acceleration in unemployment and degradation of such measures as durable goods show that the USA economy is far from recovering, and in fact has not yet found it's quote "bottom".

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    Petroleum Update for Distribution

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    The attached spreadsheets show the continuing demand destruction of petroleum distillates in the USA, a destruction that began in earnest in October 2007, the same time period as the beginning of the "recession" and the tumble of the USA markets. This demand destruction has accelerated throughout 2008 with one big spike in the fall brought on by hurricane demand and resulting supply shortfalls in the SE in the months of Sep, Oct and Nov. Since then the demand destruction has more directly been tied completely to lost economy. Please also note that the last acknowledged recession, in 2001/2002 resulted in only a 0.1% drop in demand - paling in comparison to last year's drop, and 2009's plunge. A second graph shows the performance of gasoline demand destruction which is now accelerating in the USA as economic concerns constrain the normal travel seasons. These numbers show that the economy of areas built around tourism will probably take a major hit over the summer months. Finally, the numbers coupled with continued acceleration in unemployment and degradation of such measures as durable goods show that the USA economy is far from recovering, and in fact has not yet found it's quote "bottom".

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    171 views2 pages

    Petroleum Update For Distribution

    Uploaded by

    mwirishscot2
    The attached spreadsheets show the continuing demand destruction of petroleum distillates in the USA, a destruction that began in earnest in October 2007, the same time period as the beginning of the "recession" and the tumble of the USA markets. This demand destruction has accelerated throughout 2008 with one big spike in the fall brought on by hurricane demand and resulting supply shortfalls in the SE in the months of Sep, Oct and Nov. Since then the demand destruction has more directly been tied completely to lost economy. Please also note that the last acknowledged recession, in 2001/2002 resulted in only a 0.1% drop in demand - paling in comparison to last year's drop, and 2009's plunge. A second graph shows the performance of gasoline demand destruction which is now accelerating in the USA as economic concerns constrain the normal travel seasons. These numbers show that the economy of areas built around tourism will probably take a major hit over the summer months. Finally, the numbers coupled with continued acceleration in unemployment and degradation of such measures as durable goods show that the USA economy is far from recovering, and in fact has not yet found it's quote "bottom".

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    Off Peak Demand

    08 Jan 2.83% 2008/09 Oil Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels
    08 Feb -5.30%
    3.00%
    08 Mar -3.30%
    08 Apr -0.96% 2.00%
    08 May -2.79% 1.00%
    08 Jun -2.47% 0.00%
    08 Jul -4.00% -1.00%
    08 Aug -4.57% -2.00%
    08 Sep -7.94%
    -3.00%
    08 Oct -11.00%
    08 Nov -8.17% -4.00%
    08 Dec -6.21% -5.00%

    Percent
    09 Jan -6.68% -6.00%
    09 Feb -9.21% -7.00%
    09 Mar -10.06%
    -8.00%
    09 Apr -11.76%
    09 May -13.48% -9.00%
    09 Jun -11.58% -10.00%
    09 Jul -10.73% -11.00%
    Historic Annual Levels -12.00%
    1993 2.99% -13.00%
    1994 1.87% -14.00%
    1995 0.35% -15.00%
    1996 2.22%
    -16.00%
    1997 2.71% 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
    1998 0.98% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    1999 2.44%
    Month
    2000 2.17%
    2001 -0.10%
    2002 -0.09% Historic Growth Levels Off Peak Data
    2003 2.04% 3.0%
    2004 1.91% 2.0%
    2005 1.60% 1.0%
    2006 0.61% 0.0%
    2007 0.54% -1.0%
    2008 -4.16%
    -2.0%
    2009 YTD -10.53%
    Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet! -3.0%
    Percent

    Weekly Levels YTD -4.0%


    Jan Week 1 -6.82% -5.0%
    Jan Week 2 -8.94% -6.0%
    Jan Week 3 -7.96% -7.0%
    Jan Week 4 -3.05% -8.0%
    Feb Week 1 -6.15% -9.0%
    Feb Week 2 -9.87% -10.0%
    Feb Week 3 -10.65% -11.0%
    Feb Week 4 -11.36% -12.0%
    Feb Week 5 -7.97%
    1994

    1999

    2008
    1993

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2009
    YTD
    Mar Week 1 -10.05%
    Mar Week 2 -11.98% Year
    Mar Week 3 -7.77%
    Mar Week 4 -10.39%
    Apr Week 1 -9.39% Weekly Levels To Peak Week Data 2009
    Apr Week 2 -12.42% -3.00%
    Apr Week 3 -13.84%
    -4.00%
    Apr Week 4 -11.38%
    -5.00%
    May Week 1 -15.00%
    -13.29% -6.00%
    May Week 2
    May Week 3 -12.27% -7.00%
    May Week 4 -12.66% -8.00%
    May Week 5 -15.70% -9.00%
    Jun Week 1 -11.10% -10.00%
    Jun Week 2 -9.57% -11.00%
    Jun Week 3 -15.05%
    -12.00%
    Jun Week 4 -12.99%
    -13.00%
    Jul Week 1 -12.22%
    Jul Week 2 -10.29% -14.00%
    Jul Week 3 -9.94% -15.00%
    Jul Week 4 -11.37% -16.00%
    -17.00%
    -18.00%
    -19.00%
    -20.00%
    ee

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    Jul
    Fe

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    W

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    Off Peak Demand
    08 Jan -0.10% 2008/09 Gasoline Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels
    08 Feb -1.16% 0.00%
    08 Mar -1.32% -0.25%
    08 Apr -0.31% -0.50%
    08 May -1.37% -0.75%
    08 Jun -2.24% -1.00%
    08 Jul -3.16% -1.25%
    08 Aug -1.92% -1.50%
    08 Sep -4.13% -1.75%
    -2.00%
    08 Oct -4.28%
    -2.25%
    08 Nov -3.55%
    -2.50%
    08 Dec -4.66%

    Percent
    -2.75%
    09 Jan -3.63% -3.00%
    09 Feb -1.23% -3.25%
    09 Mar -2.66% -3.50%
    09 Apr -2.39% -3.75%
    09 May -3.26% -4.00%
    09 Jun -4.01% -4.25%
    09 Jul -4.92% -4.50%
    Historic Annual Levels -4.75%
    -5.00%
    1993 2.67%
    -5.25%
    1994 1.79%
    -5.50%
    1995 3.28% -5.75%
    1996 -0.10% -6.00%
    1997 2.35% 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
    1998 2.86% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    1999 2.09% Month
    2000 0.49%
    2001 1.28%
    2002 2.59% Historic Gasoline Growth Levels Off Peak Data
    2003 1.30% 3.5%
    2004 2.08% 3.0%
    2005 0.87% 2.5%
    2006 1.43% 2.0%
    2007 0.77% 1.5%
    2008 -2.12%
    1.0%
    2009 YTD -2.93%
    0.5%
    Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet!
    Percent

    0.0%
    Weekly Levels YTD
    Jan Week 1 -3.37% -0.5%
    Jan Week 2 -3.93% -1.0%
    Jan Week 3 -3.60% -1.5%
    Jan Week 4 -3.24% -2.0%
    Feb Week 1 -1.32% -2.5%
    Feb Week 2 -0.61% -3.0%
    Feb Week 3 -3.15% -3.5%
    Feb Week 4 -1.22% -4.0%
    Feb Week 5 0.14%
    1998

    2005
    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009
    YTD
    Mar Week 1 -2.03%
    Mar Week 2 -3.08% Year
    Mar Week 3 -1.62%
    Mar Week 4 -3.86%
    Apr Week 1 -4.73% Weekly Gasoline Levels To Peak Week Data 2009
    Apr Week 2 -3.28% 1.50%
    Apr Week 3 -0.29%
    1.00%
    Apr Week 4 -1.18%
    May Week 1 -4.53% 0.50%
    May Week 2 -4.46% 0.00%
    May Week 3 0.42%
    -0.50%
    May Week 4 1.15%
    May Week 5 -5.00% -1.00%
    Jun Week 1 -3.65% -1.50%
    Jun Week 2 -2.47% -2.00%
    Jun Week 3 -4.66%
    -2.50%
    Jun Week 4 -5.27%
    Jul Week 1 -4.49% -3.00%
    Jul Week 2 -5.63% -3.50%
    Jul Week 3 -4.47%
    -4.00%
    Jul Week 4 -5.08%
    -4.50%
    -5.00%
    -5.50%
    -6.00%
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