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  • Winter 2

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    jucacepi
    18 views3 pages
    The document contains data on demand, stock levels, and forecast values over multiple periods. It includes the following key elements: - Demand and stock (St) data over 4 quarters for 2 years - Formulas to calculate values like the base trend (Bt), growth rates (Gt), and forecasted demand (Ft) using St, Bt, and other factors - Calculated values for Gt, forecast errors (e), and other metrics across the periods The data and formulas allow for analyzing demand patterns over time and assessing the accuracy of different forecasting techniques.

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    The document contains data on demand, stock levels, and forecast values over multiple periods. It includes the following key elements: - Demand and stock (St) data over 4 quarters for 2 years - Formulas to calculate values like the base trend (Bt), growth rates (Gt), and forecasted demand (Ft) using St, Bt, and other factors - Calculated values for Gt, forecast errors (e), and other metrics across the periods The data and formulas allow for analyzing demand patterns over time and assessing the accuracy of different forecasting techniques.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    18 views3 pages

    Winter 2

    Uploaded by

    jucacepi
    The document contains data on demand, stock levels, and forecast values over multiple periods. It includes the following key elements: - Demand and stock (St) data over 4 quarters for 2 years - Formulas to calculate values like the base trend (Bt), growth rates (Gt), and forecasted demand (Ft) using St, Bt, and other factors - Calculated values for Gt, forecast errors (e), and other metrics across the periods The data and formulas allow for analyzing demand patterns over time and assessing the accuracy of different forecasting techniques.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    Trimestre/A

    2,007

    2,008

    1
    2
    3
    4
    Promedio
    T
    L
    BT
    DT
    ST
    CT

    45.25
    8.00
    4.00
    0.56
    46.38
    48.34
    2

    1
    2
    3
    4

    0.342934
    0.677697
    1.485939
    1.282482

    16
    32
    71
    62

    14
    45
    84
    47

    alfa
    beta
    gamma

    47.50
    T -1
    ST D
    B T
    2

    BT

    d T dT -1
    L

    0.286262
    0.909665
    1.678951
    0.928968
    R

    1 T
    dt
    T t 1

    Ct

    dt
    S T - B T T - t

    Ct Barra

    Ct normalizados

    0.314598
    0.793681
    1.582445
    1.105725
    3.796449
    1.053616

    0.331465
    0.836235
    1.667289
    1.165010
    4.000000

    R=L/CT
    BARRA

    K <=
    L
    K>
    L

    0.2
    0.15
    0.1

    FT K ST kB T C T k-L

    FT K S T kB T C T k-gL

    Entero ms pequeo mayor o igual que k/L

    d
    C T T
    ST

    Ao

    Trimestre

    Demanda

    St

    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    3
    4

    16
    32
    71
    62
    14
    45
    84
    47

    48.77910031
    47.11137143
    46.3753189
    47.79960562
    46.91407004
    48.57893035
    49.28956383
    47.72214258
    38.25510987
    29.53383041
    21.67079193
    14.73023738
    10.91985828
    6.347403362
    0.852836699
    -5.803438344

    3.22206394
    2.46773843
    -8.1011641
    -16.4666359

    Gt

    G T ST - ST-1 1 BT-1

    0.543427546
    0.211754083
    0.069583091
    0.272788635
    0.099040003
    0.333913048
    0.390421114
    0.096744759
    -1.337821861
    -2.445340501
    -3.257995199
    -3.8103791
    -3.8103791
    -3.924690473
    -4.160171902
    -4.534587373

    Ct

    FT K ST kBT CT k-L
    d
    C T T 1 C T k-L
    ST

    0.331119773
    0.820535838
    1.653659012
    1.178217325
    0.327849589
    0.831115006
    1.658714582
    1.158882369
    0.29506463
    0.748003505
    1.492843124
    1.042994132
    0.29506463
    0.712081075
    0.393650804
    1.222434028

    G T ST - ST -1 1 BT -1
    d
    C T T 1 C T k-L
    ST

    FTK ST kBT CTk-L

    Ft

    FT K ST kBT CT k-L
    d
    C T T 1 C T k-L
    ST

    16.21072861 0.21072861
    41.36751031 9.36751031
    83.41656579 12.4165658
    58.94223265 -3.05776735
    16.3316642
    2.3316642
    40.91680349 -4.08319651
    83.35993038 -0.64006962
    60.03348406 13.0334841
    15.41322881 15.4132288
    39.15561486 39.1556149
    78.30988937 78.3098894
    54.82699148 54.8269915
    MSE

    e^2

    MAPE

    0.04440655
    87.7502495
    154.171106
    9.34994116
    5.43665795
    16.6724938
    0.40968912
    169.871707
    237.567622
    1533.16218
    6132.43877
    3005.999
    11352.8738
    MAPE

    0.01317054
    0.2927347
    0.17488121
    0.04931883
    0.16654744
    0.0907377
    0.00761988
    0.27730817
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!

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