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Dr. Robert Geller - "A Seismologist Looks at Nuclear Power Plant Safety Issues in Japan"
Dr. Robert Geller - "A Seismologist Looks at Nuclear Power Plant Safety Issues in Japan"
Robert J. Geller
C.V.
US citizen; permanent resident of Japan B.S. (1973, Geophysics), Ph.D. (1977) from Caltech First tenured non-Japanese faculty member at Univ. of Tokyo (Assoc. Prof., 1984-99; Prof., 1999-)
Research interests
seismic wave propagation, Earth structure, earthquake sources predictability/non-predictability of earthquakes policy-related issues (seismic/tsunami risks of NPPs)
Refereed publications
http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009
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New Japan NRA (Nuclear Regulation Agency) dysfunctional No progress towards resolving key issues
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Reform NRA
Adopt regulatory practices from abroad 4 Use probabilistic approach, not deterministic
@rjgeller
The new minister of industry just said (in a TV interview) that he wouldnt approve restarting NPPs until the experts certify safety.
Experts should be tasked with assessing the risks and uncertainties. The public and political leaders should make the final decision.
Refineries, other plants, and storage tanks on landfill are at risk! Risk of liquefaction, fires, spills, and plant failures Risk of dependence on imports of oil and gas
Photos: P. Yanev
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Active Faults
Earthquake ground motion
Tsunamis
(especially on Sea of Japan coast)
The tsunami risk to NPPs on the Sea of Japan coast must not be overlooked!
Genkai NPP
Figure: V. Gusiakov
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Could the Genkai NPP withstand a tsunami similar to that in 1993 at Okushiri Island?
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Base map (Japanese govt. hazard map) vs. actual seismicity since 1979 Regions rated as especially hazardous have been quiet Regions with damaging quakes (1995 Kobe, 2011 Tohoku, etc.) were not rated as at high hazard level
Geller, 2011 (Nature)
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Must escape safe/unsafe dichotomy Decision-making must be based on quantitative risk assessment
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