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    Northwestern Hospital Supply Simple Exponential Smoothing Model

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    Sumit Rathi
    The document summarizes a simple exponential smoothing model used by Northwestern Hospital Supply to forecast sales over 52 time periods. The model uses an alpha of 0.3 to calculate the base and forecast values. A table shows the actual sales, base, forecast, and forecast error for each time period. Various error metrics are also provided to evaluate forecast accuracy.

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    Northwestern Hospital Supply Simple Exponential Smoothing Model

    Uploaded by

    Sumit Rathi
    8 views2 pages
    The document summarizes a simple exponential smoothing model used by Northwestern Hospital Supply to forecast sales over 52 time periods. The model uses an alpha of 0.3 to calculate the base and forecast values. A table shows the actual sales, base, forecast, and forecast error for each time period. Various error metrics are also provided to evaluate forecast accuracy.

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    The document summarizes a simple exponential smoothing model used by Northwestern Hospital Supply to forecast sales over 52 time periods. The model uses an alpha of 0.3 to calculate the base and forecast values. A table shows the actual sales, base, forecast, and forecast error for each time period. Various error metrics are also provided to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    8 views2 pages

    Northwestern Hospital Supply Simple Exponential Smoothing Model

    Uploaded by

    Sumit Rathi
    The document summarizes a simple exponential smoothing model used by Northwestern Hospital Supply to forecast sales over 52 time periods. The model uses an alpha of 0.3 to calculate the base and forecast values. A table shows the actual sales, base, forecast, and forecast error for each time period. Various error metrics are also provided to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

    NORTHERN HOSPITAL SUPPLY

    Simple Exponential Smoothing Model


    = 0.3

    = 0.3

    1
    2
    3
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    7
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    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    32
    33
    34
    35

    Sales
    (Dt)
    1084
    1056
    1090
    953
    868
    868
    1034
    1088
    1069
    856
    876
    796
    1023
    1003
    1036
    835
    747
    856
    1008
    1036
    920
    805
    816
    776
    964
    936
    970
    833
    748
    847
    905
    968
    861
    736
    757

    Base

    (St)

    1084.00
    1075.60
    1079.92
    1041.84
    989.69
    953.18
    977.43
    1010.60
    1028.12
    976.48
    946.34
    901.24
    937.77
    957.34
    980.94
    937.15
    880.11
    872.88
    913.41
    950.19
    941.13
    900.29
    875.00
    845.30
    880.91
    897.44
    919.21
    893.34
    849.74
    848.92
    865.74
    896.42
    885.79
    840.86
    815.70

    Forecast
    (Ft)

    Forecast
    Error
    (Dt - Ft)

    NORTHWESTERN HOSPITAL SUPPLY


    Simple Exponential Smoothing Model
    Sales

    Forecast

    1200

    1084.00
    1075.60
    1079.92
    1041.84
    989.69
    953.18
    977.43
    1010.60
    1028.12
    976.48
    946.34
    901.24
    937.77
    957.34
    980.94
    937.15
    880.11
    872.88
    913.41
    950.19
    941.13
    900.29
    875.00
    845.30
    880.91
    897.44
    919.21
    893.34
    849.74
    848.92
    865.74
    896.42
    885.79
    840.86

    -28.00
    14.40
    -126.92
    -173.84
    -121.69
    80.82
    110.57
    58.40
    -172.12
    -100.48
    -150.34
    121.76
    65.23
    78.66
    -145.94
    -190.15
    -24.11
    135.12
    122.59
    -30.19
    -136.13
    -84.29
    -99.00
    118.70
    55.09
    72.56
    -86.21
    -145.34
    -2.74
    56.08
    102.26
    -35.42
    -149.79
    -83.86

    1100

    1000

    Sales

    Time
    Period (t)
    (Weeks)

    900

    800

    700

    600
    0

    10

    MAD= 97.06

    20

    30
    Weeks

    MSE= 11467

    40

    Bias= -23.79

    50

    60

    36
    37
    38
    39
    40
    41
    42
    43
    44
    45
    46
    47
    48
    49
    50
    51
    52

    752
    903
    883
    916
    715
    691
    736
    888
    908
    909
    685
    696
    692

    796.59
    828.51
    844.86
    866.20
    820.84
    781.89
    768.12
    804.09
    835.26
    857.38
    805.67
    772.77
    748.54

    815.70
    796.59
    828.51
    844.86
    866.20
    820.84
    781.89
    768.12
    804.09
    835.26
    857.38
    805.67
    772.77
    748.54
    748.54
    748.54
    748.54

    -63.70
    106.41
    54.49
    71.14
    -151.20
    -129.84
    -45.89
    119.88
    103.91
    73.74
    -172.38
    -109.67
    -80.77

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