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NguyenTheDung Thongkeyhoc1
NguyenTheDung Thongkeyhoc1
NguyenTheDung Thongkeyhoc1
D AN U-PNT-03
PHN THNG K Y HC 1
Thang 3/2010
Bai 1
KHAI NIEM ve THONG KE Y HOC va CACH SAP XEP & TO CHC SO LIEU
ThS. BS. Nguyen The Dung
MUC TIEU: Sau khi hoc xong bai nay, hoc vien co the:
1/ Phan biet ung cac loai bien so thng dung trong thong ke y hoc 2/ Phan biet c cac thang o lng dung trong thong ke y hoc 3/ Biet cach thiet lap cac bang phan phoi tan so, tan so tng oi, tan so don, tan
so tng oi don 4/ Phat bieu ung y ngha cua so lieu trong cac bang phan phoi tan so, tan so tng oi, tan so don, tan so tng oi don
I. MOT SO KHAI NIEM C BAN : Thong ke hoc (Statistics): la mon hoc ve cach : 1 thu thap, to chc, tom tat va phan tch so lieu 2 rut ra nhng suy dien cho toan bo (so lieu) t ket qua khao sat 1 phan cua so lieu. Thong ke sinh hoc (Biostatistics): la thong ke hoc co so lieu phan tch co nguon goc sinh hoac y hoc. Bien so (Variable): la ac tnh co the mang nhieu gia tr khac nhau ngi, ni chon, vat khac nhau. Bien so nh lng (Quantitative variable): la bien so co the o ac c bang cac phep o lng thong thng. So o thc hien tren cac bien so nh lng chuyen tai thong tin ve so (khoi) lng. Bien so nh tnh (Qualitative variable) : la bien so khong the c o bang nhng phep o lng thong thng, ma ch co the c nhom loai (categorized). So o thc hien tren cac bien so nh tnh chuyen tai thong tin ve thuoc tnh. Bien so ngau nhien (Random variable): la bien so ma cac gia tr co c la ket qua cua cac yeu to mang tnh c hoi (chance factors) khong the tien oan chnh xac trc c. Cac gia tr co c qua cac phng phap o lng c goi la cac quan sat (observations) hoac so o easurements) Bien so ngau nhien ri (Discrete random variable): la bien so ac trng bi cac khoang trong gia cac gia tr. Bien so ngau nhien lien tuc (Continous random variable): la bien so khong co cac khoang trong gia cac gia tr. DAN SO (Quan the Population): la tap hp ln nhat cac thc the ma ta quan tam 1 thi iem xac nh. 1
Neu o mot bien so tren tng thc the cua dan so, chung ta se co 1 dan so cac gia tr cua bien so o. Dan so cac gia tr la tap hp ln nhat cac gia tr cua 1 bien so ngau nhien ma ta quan tam 1 thi iem xac nh. MAU (Sample): la 1 phan (bo phan) cua 1 dan so. II. S O LNG va THANG O LNG (Measurement & Measurement Scale) S o lng c nh ngha la s gan con so cho cac vat the hoac bien co theo 1 he thong qui tac. Do viec o lng c thc hien vi nhieu he thong qui tac khac nhau nen phai co nhieu thang o lng khac nhau. 1. Thang nh danh (Nominal Scale): la thang o lng ( mc o) thap nhat va ch bao gom viec at ten cho cac quan sat hoac phan loai chung vao cac nhom oc lap ho tng (mutually exclusive). Th du: cac chan oan y khoa (benh cao huyet ap, benh noi tiet, v.v.), cac thc the nh phan nh nam-n, benh-khoe, v..v 2. Thang th t (Ordinal Scale): la thang o lng bao gom khong ch viec nh danh ma con phan hang (rank) cac nhom loai theo 1 so tieu chuan nao o. Th du: benh (rat nang, nang, va, nhe), tnh trang kinh te (cao, va, kem), v..v.. Lu y la mc o khac biet gia cac 2 so o thuoc 2 nhom loai a phan hang khong c biet la bang bao nhieu. 3. Thang khoang (Interval Scale): tinh vi hn thang th t cho khoang cach gia hai so o bat ky c biet ro. Th du: hieu cua so o 20 va 30 bang vi hieu cua so o 30 va 40. Thang khoang dung 1 n v ve khoang cach va mot iem zero c chon tuy y. Tuy nhien iem zero trong trng hp nay khong phai la zero that s (ch th s hoan toan khong co khoi lng ang c o). Th du ro nhat ve thang khoang la cach o nhiet o, trong o 00 C khong ong ngha vi viec hoan toan khong co nhiet lng nao.Thang khoang la mot thang nh lng. 4. Thang T so (Ratio Scale): la thang o lng mc o cao nhat, ac trng bi s bang nhau cua cac t so cung nh cua cac khoang co the c nh ro. iem c ban cua thang t so la co iem zero that. Th du: chieu cao, can nang, chieu dai,v.v. III. CHUOI THONG KE (Ordered array) : la danh muc cac gia tr cua 1 tap hp so lieu xep theo th t t gia tr nho en gia tr ln.
IV. PHAN PHOI TAN SO (quency Distribution) 1. Phan nhom so lieu: so lieu co the c to chc, sap xep bang cach phan vao nhieu nhom (Khoang cach lp KCL).
Cach tnh so KCL So KCL cua 1 tap hp so lieu thng khong nen nho hn 6 va khong ln hn 15. e chnh xac hn, co the dung cong thc Sturges e tnh so KCL :
k =
vi k : so KCL
Th du: co tap hp so lieu gom 57 gia tr, nen phan vao bao nhieu KCL th va? n = 57 log10 57 = 1,7559 k = 1 + 3,322 (1,7559) 7
R k
vi
Th du: co tap hp so lieu gom 57 gia tr, gia tr ln nhat la 79 va gia tr nho nhat la 12. Tnh o rong cua cac KCL?
79 12 = 9, 6 10 7 Tap hp 57 gia tr la can nang tnh bang ounces cua 57 khoi u ac tnh lay ra t bung cua 57 benh nhan :
w =
68 24 28 31 49
63 25 25 50 28
42 44 45 38 23
27 65 12 21 19
30 43 57 16 46
36 25 51 24 30
28 74 12 69 43
32 51 32 47 49
79 36 49 23 12
27 42 38 22
22 28 42 43
23 31 27 27
2. Lap bang phan phoi tan so KCL 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 Tan so 5 19 10 13 4 4 2 57 3. Lap bang phan phoi tan so, tan so don, tan so tng oi, tan so tng oi don
KCL
Tan so
Tan so don
Tan so tng oi 0,0877 0,3333 0,1754 0,2281 0,0702 0,0702 0,0351 1,0000
Tan so tng oi don 0,0877 0,4210 0,5964 0,8245 0,8947 0,9649 1,0000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
19 29 39 49 59 69 79
5 19 10 13 4 4 2 57
5 24 34 47 51 55 57
Lu y: Tuy theo nhu cau ma chon cot (tan so, tan so tng oi, tan so don, tan so tng oi don) e trnh bay. Thong thng nhat la trnh bay tan so va tan so tng oi (tnh bang %) trong cung 1 bang. 4. Lap bieu o Histogram Histogram la bieu o phan phoi tan so hnh que (cot) ac biet cua cac bien so lien tuc. Do la bieu o la cua bien so lien tuc nen khi trnh bay can phai dung cac gii han that cua cac KCL. Tm gii han that cua 1 KCL bang cach tr i n v oi vi gii han di va cong them n v oi vi gii han tren.
Bang phan phoi tan so dung gii han that (e ve histogram) Gii han that cua KCL 9,5 19,5 19,5 29,5 29,5 39,5 39,5 49,5 49,5 59,5 59,5 69,5 69,5 79,5
Tan so
Tan so
5 19 10 13 4 4 2
6.
6 2 1 2 1 8
9 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 1 2 2 6 6 8 8 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 7 9
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Bai 2
MUC TIEU: Sau khi hoc xong bai nay, hoc vien co the:
1/ Biet cach tnh cac so o khuynh hng tap trung va phat bieu ung y ngha cua cac so o nay 2/ Biet cach tnh cac so o khuynh hng phan tan va phat bieu ung y ngha cua cac so o nay 3/ Biet cach thiet lap cac bieu trnh bay cac so o khuynh hng tap trung va phan
tan
I. GII THIEU :
So o mo ta (descriptive measure) la phng tien tom tat so lieu (TTSL). So o mo ta tnh c t so lieu cua 1 mau c goi la so thong ke (statistic) So o mo ta tnh c t so lieu cua 1 dan so c goi la thong so (parameter) II. SO O KHUYNH HNG TAP TRUNG (Measures of Central Tendency) : So o khuynh hng tap trung chuyen tai thong tin ve gia tr trung bnh (average value) cua mot tap hp so lieu. Ba so o khuynh hng tap trung thng dung nhat la: so troi so trung v , va so trung bnh. 1. So troi (Mode) : So troi cua mot tap hp gia tr la gia tr xuat hien nhieu lan nhat. Mot tap hp gia tr co the khong co so troi nao, hoac co nhieu hn 1 so troi. ac iem cua so troi So troi co the c s dung e mo ta so lieu nh tnh. 2. So trung v (Median) So trung v cua mot tap hp so lieu la gia tr ng gia 2 phan bang nhau cua tap hp (so gia tr bang hoac ln hn so trung v bang vi so gia tr bang hoac nho hn so trung v). Neu so gia tr la mot so le, so trung v se la gia tr ng ngay gia chuoi thong ke. Neu so gia tr la mot so chan, so trung v se bang so trung bnh cua 2 gia tr ng ngay gia chuoi thong ke. ac iem cua so trung v: oc nhat (oi vi moi tap hp so lieu ch co 1 so trung v) n gian (de hieu va de tnh toan) Gia tr cc (extreme values) khong gay anh hng nhieu en so trung v. 7
3. So trung bnh toan hoc (Arithmatic Mean) : Trung bnh (cua) dan so (Population Mean) :
x
i =1
x
i =1
ac iem cua so trung bnh: oc nhat (oi vi moi tap hp so lieu ch co 1 so trung bnh) n gian (de hieu va de tnh toan) Gia tr cc (extreme values) gay anh hng nhieu en so trung bnh. So trung bnh gia trong (Weighted mean) La so trung bnh c tnh khi phan tch so lieu t nhieu mau ve cung 1 loai thong tin nhng c thu thap nhng thi iem khac nhau va co c mau khac nhau. So trung bnh gia trong c tnh nh sau: Weighted x = ni x i/N ni so gia tr cua mau i so trung bnh cua mau i xI N tong so gia tr cua cac mau
Trimmed mean (so trung bnh gon) va Winsorized mean (so trung bnh gan) La hai phep tnh lai so trung bnh nham han che tac ong cua gia tr cc.
Trimmed mean: so trung bnh c tnh sau khi a got bo gia tr au va gia tr cuoi cua chuoi thong ke. Winsorize mean: so trung bnh c tnh sau khi a gan 5% so gia tr au chuoi thong ke (cac gia tr cc thap) bang vi gia tr thap ke tiep (so vi 5% cac gia tr cc thap), va 5% so gia tr cuoi chuoi thong ke (cac gia tr cc cao) bang vi gia tr cao ke tiep (so vi 5% cac gia tr cc cao).
III. SO O KHUYNH HNG PHAN TAN (Measures of Dispersion) : So o phan tan chuyen tai thong tin ve khoi lng (mc o) bien thien hien dien trong tap hp so lieu. 1. Bien o(Range) : R = xL xs Cong dung cua bien o rat gii han (v ch dung co 2 gia tr).
2. Phng sai (Variance) : Phng sai cua mot tap hp so lieu la so o o phan tan tng oi cua cac gia tr (thuoc tap hp) xung quanh so trung bnh (cua tap hp so lieu). + Phng sai (cua) dan so (Population Variance)
2 =
(x
i =1
S2 =