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Stock Expected Return

EXPECTED RETURN COMMON STOCK


INPUTS
LAST DIVIDEND
PRICE OF STOCK
EXPECTED GROWTH RATE

$ 1.25 Dollar Amount


$ 45.00 Dollar Amount
9.00% Decimal

OUTPUT
EXPECTED RETURN

11.8%
3.8%
4.8%
5.8%
6.8%
7.8%
8.8%
9.8%
10.8%
11.8%
12.8%
13.8%
14.8%
15.8%
16.8%
17.8%
18.8%
19.8%
20.8%
21.8%
22.8%

EXPECTED RETURNS AT DIFFERENT GROWTH RATES


25.0%

20.0%
EXPECTED RETURN

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%

11.8%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
0%

5%

10%

15%
GROWTH RATE

20%

25%

Stock Price - Zero Growth

PRICE OF COMMON STOCK - ZERO GROWTH MODEL


INPUTS
LAST DIVIDEND
EXPECTED RETURN (ROR)

3.00 Dollar Amount


6.00% Decimal

OUTPUT
PRICE OF STOCK

$ 50.00

Stock Price - Constant Growth

PRICE OF COMMON STOCK - CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL


INPUTS
LAST DIVIDEND
EXPECTED RETURN (ROR (k)
GROWTH RATE (g)

1.17 Dollar Amount


13.60% Decimal
8.10% Decimal
k must > g

OUTPUT
PRICE OF STOCK

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

21.27
61.58
40.34
30.00
23.88
19.83
16.96
14.81
13.15
11.82
10.73
9.83
9.07

STOCK PRICE AT DIFFERENT RORs


$70.00
$60.00

$50.00
STOCK PRICE

9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%

$ 23.00

$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN

19%

21%

Stock Price - Variable Growth

PRICE OF STOCK - VARIABLE GROWTH MODEL

INPUTS
LAST YEAR (e.g., 1996)
LAST DIVIDEND
GROWTH RATE (g)
EXPECTED RETURN (ROR) (k)

1996
$ 1.17

1997

30.00%
13.60% Decimal

1998

1999

30.00%

30.00%

2000

2001

8.10%

8.10% Decimal

OUTPUT
DIVIDENDS
PRICE

1.52

1.98

2.57

$ 2.78
$ 54.61

CASH FLOWS

1.52

1.98

2.57

$ 57.39

9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%

3.00

$39.09

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$39.09
114.83
74.92
55.48
43.98
36.38
30.99
26.96
23.84
21.36
19.33
17.64
16.22

STOCK PRICE AT DIFFERENT RORs


$140.00
$120.00
PRICE OF STOCK

PRESENT VALUE

$100.00
$80.00
$60.00

$40.00
$20.00

$6%

11%

16%

REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN

21%

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