9/30/2010

Hch ton Thu nhp Quc dn

FETP 2010

Ni dung
1. Sn lng quc gia - tm im KTH v m? 2. Sn lng quc gia - o lng? 3. Mc gi chung v t l lm pht o lng? 4. Trao i sn lng gia cc nc - ngha? 5. Ca ci v sn lng yu t no quan trng

hn?

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Sn lng quc gia - tm im ca kinh t hc v m

A v B vi 2 kch bn cho vay 10 con b (10%)
Kch bn no xy ra trong i thc?

Sn phm v dch v (Goods & Services) Mc sng Gi tr thc v danh ngha

Ti khon quc gia -The National Accounts

Kt qu hot ng kinh t theo mt b s liu

Hch ton sn xut/thu nhp quc dn. Dng tin flows of money, gia cc b phn khc nhau ca nn kinh t.
Tr lng (Stock) v lu lng (Flow)? Cc b phn ca nn kinh t? Cc khu vc (G, H, F, ROW) Cc th trng

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Stocks v Flows
V d v h nc
Stocks: Tr lng/Tch lng/Bin im Flows: Lung/Lu lng/Bin k

Mt s v d lin quan n khi nim kinh t:

Ca ci v thu nhp Tr lng vn K v u t mi I

S vng chu chuyn Cc dng tin trong nn kinh t

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GDP v o lng
GDP?
Gi tr th trng ca ton b sn phm v dch v cui cng

c sn xut ra trong phm vi lnh th mt quc gia trong khong thi gian nht nh (1 nm). Cng thc n gin

GDP

Vi
i1

P
i1 i

Qi

Quan h: Sn xut Thu nhp Chi tiu Ba phng php tnh GDP:
Gi tr gia tng Thu nhp Chi tiu

GDP = Y = C + I + G + EX IM

Ba phng php o lng GDP

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GDP Vit Nam 2007 Hai phng php o lng

% GDP Chnh ph mua HH&DV (G) u t (I) Tiu dng (C) Xut khu rng (X-IM) Sai s trong thng k GDP VA Nng nghip VA Cng nghip v xy dng VA Dch v 5.90% 35.70% 62.80% -3.30% -1.10% 100.00% 20.36% 41.54% 38.10% T ng 57,454 347,643 611,540 -32,135 -10,712 973,790 198,264 404,512 371,014

Ngun: International Monetary Fund, Coutry Report 12/2007

o lng GDP
GDP c xc nh bi 3 cch:

Cng gi tr gia tng (value added) ca tt c cc nh sn xut; Cng tt c chi tiu vo HH&DV cui cng c sn xut trong nc,
GDP = C + I + G + EX - IM

Cng tt c thu nhp tr cho cc yu t sn

xut.

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o lng GDP
Bao gm
HH&DV cui cng c sn xut trong nc Bao gm c HH vn (capital goods) C s h tng xy dng mi (New construction of structures) Thay i tn kho (Changes to inventories)

Khng bao gm
HH&DV trung gian hay nhp lng (Intermediate goods and

services/Inputs)
Hng qua s dng (Used goods) Ti sn ti chnh (Financial assets: stocks, bonds ..) HH&DV sn xut nc ngoi (Foreign-produced goods and services) Ngoi ra, cc giao dch khng lin quan n sn xut HH&DV mi: Chuyn nhng v phc li ca chnh ph Capital losses and gains

Cc o lng khc
NDP (sn phm quc ni rng) = GDP khu

hao (hay khon tiu dng vn) NI (thu nhp quc dn) = NDP thu kinh doanh gin thu + tr gi PI (thu nhp c nhn) = NI (thu kinh doanh + li nhun gi li + bo him x hi) + thanh ton chuyn nhng DI (thu nhp kh dng) = PI thu c nhn GNP = GNI
GNI = GDP + Thu nhp yu t rng t nc ngoi Thu nhp yu t rng t nc ngoi = NFP hay NIA

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GDP danh ngha v thc

GDP thc: gi tr HH&DV cui cng sn xut ra, cn
c vo gi ca nm c s-base year. Ngoi tr nm c s, GDP thc khng ging GDP danh ngha (theo gi hin hnh-current prices). GDP thc bnh qun u ngi - Real GDP per capita o lng sn lng bnh qun u ngi.

o lng GDP v GDP thc trong mt nn kinh t n gin

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GDP thc v danh ngha Vit Nam

Nm
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 GDP danh ngha (T ng) 41,955 110,532 178,534 272,036 361,017 GDP thc (T ng) 131,968 151,782 178,534 213,833 244,596

2000
2002 2004 2005 2006 S b 2007

441,646
535,762 715,307 839,211 974,266 1,144,015

273,666
313,247 362,435 393,031 425,373 461,443

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k, http://www.gso.gov.vn

Mc gi chung
Mc gi chung v ch s gi Hai loi ch s gi CPI (Laspeyres) v GDP

deflator (Paasche) T l lm pht

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Quyn s CPI Vit Nam (2006 2010)

Quyn s dng tnh ch s gi tiu dng thi k 2006-2010
Hng n v dch v n ung ung v thuc l May mc, m nn, giy dp Nh , in, nc, cht t v VLXD Thit b v dng gia nh Thuc v dch v y t Giao thng, bu chnh vin thng Gio dc Vn ho, gii tr v du lch

3.59% 5.41% 9.04%

3.31%

42.85% 5.42%

8.62%

9.99% 7.21% 4.56%

Hng ho v dch v khc

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k, http://www.gso.gov.vn

S liu gi c Vit Nam, 2005-2009

Ngun: Bo co KT-XH hng thng, Tng cc Thng k (2009)

Gi s chn nm 2004 lm nm gc, hy tnh ch s gi tiu dng CPI ca Vit Nam cho cc nm t 2005 n 2009?

T l lm pht theo CPI (%)

2005 8,4

2006 6,6

2007 12,63

2008 19,89

2009 6,52

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Trao i sn lng gia cc quc gia - ngha kinh t

Nn kinh t m:
Thu nhp Y = C + I + G + EX IM Chi tiu ni a A = C + I + G

V d:
Thu nhp < Chi tiu => ? Ti tr?

Ti tr ngn hn v di hn?
Thu nhp < Chi tiu => lun lun xu?

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Ca ci v sn lng yu t no quan trng hn?

Ca ci = Tin + Ti sn khc Sn lng = Sn phm v dch v Gi ti sn (ti chnh+BS) v Hiu ng ca ci? Vay v cho vay: Mong mun g?
C nhn Quc gia

Kt lun: Sn lng!

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