10/21/2010

Bi ging 6 Tng trng kinh t v cc tranh lun

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Ni dung
Cc m hnh tng trng Tranh lun v tng trng ng Tng trng Vit Nam

Macroeconomics Fall 2009

10/21/2010

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

M hnh tng trng Solow

Sn lng trn lao ng, y f(k) MPK = f(k +1) f(k) 1 Hm sn xut ny c MPK gim dn.

Vn trn lao ng, k

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Thu nhp, tiu dng, v u t

Sn lng trn mt lao ng, y

f(k)

c1 y1 i1 k1
Vn trn mt lao ng, k

sf(k)

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Tit kim v u t
u t lm tng tr lng vn, khu hao lm gim tr lng vn Thay i tr lng vn k k = u t Khu hao = i k = sf(k) k

y l phng trnh trung tm ca m hnh Solow.

k = s f(k) k

Macroeconomics Fall 2009

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Khu hao
Khu hao vn trn lao ng, k

= T l khu hao

Vn trn mt lao ng, k

10/21/2010

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Biu Solow
u t, khu hao

sf(k)

u t tng thm
K0 K* Vn trn mt lao ng

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Trng thi dng Steady State

u t, khu hao k = s f(k) k

sf(k)

Ti im ny, k = sf(k), v vy:

k = s f(k) k = 0 Vn trn mt lao ng, k

10/21/2010

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

T l tit kim cao hn

u t, Tit kim

k s2 f(k) s1 f(k)

k 1*
Macroeconomics Fall 2009

k 2*

k
9

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Tit kim v u t thc y tng trng

Thu nhp trn u ngi
100,000

nm 2000
(log)

10,000

1,000

100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 T l phn trm ca u t trn sn lng

(Bnh qun 1960-2000)

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Dn s tng vi tc n
u t

k = s f(k) ( +n)k

( + n ) k
trng thi dng, tc tng trng sn lng lao ng bnh qun bng 0. Nhng tc tng tng sn lng Y s bng tc tng ca lao ng: gY = gL = n

sf(k)

k*
Macroeconomics Fall 2009

Vn trn mt lao ng, k

11

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

T l tng dn s cao hn
u t

( +n2) k
( +n1) k

N tng dn n k* thp hn trng thi dng.

sf(k)

k2*
Macroeconomics Fall 2009

k1*

Vn trn mt lao ng, k

12

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Tng dn s hn ch tng trng

Thu nhp 100,000 trn u ngi nm 2000 (log) 10,000

1,000

100 0 1 3 4 5 Tng trng dn s (phn trm mt nm; bnh qun 1960-2000) 2

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Tin b cng ngh

u t

k = s f(k) ( +n +g)k
( +n +g ) k

sf(k)

k*
Macroeconomics, Fall 2009

Vn trn mt lao ng, k

14

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Trng thi dng

Bin Vn trn mt lao ng hiu dng K hiu ke = K/(LE ) Mc tng trng trng thi dng 0

Sn lng trn mt lao ng hiu dng

Sn lng trn lao ng Tng sn lng

ye = Y/(LE )
( Y / L ) = ye E Y = ye L E

n+g

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

ngha ca m hnh tng trng Solow

1. 2. Cc nc ngho c tim nng tng trng nhanh. Khi thu nhp quc gia tng ln, tng trng c xu hng chm li. Nu c chung nhng tnh cht quan trng, cc nc ngho c tim nng ui kp cc nc giu. Tng t l tit kim khng dn n tng trng bn vng di hn. Tin b cng ngh mi l yu t quyt nh duy tr tng trng bn vng.

3.

4.

5.

10/21/2010

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Cc m hnh tng trng ni sinh Endogenous Growth

Romer (1993): Sn lng c quan h vi vn, lao ng, v tri thc, trong u t cho gio dc v o to c th lm tng tri thc. Lucas (1988): Vn con ngi (human capital) c hiu sut tng dn theo qui m, v tng trng ph thuc vo mc u t cho tng loi vn. Grossman v Helpman (1991): Thng qua ti a ha li nhun, cc doanh nghip c ng c u t cho cc hot ng R&D (Research and Development). Chnh sch c th c tc ng quan trng i vi tng trng trong di hn.

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Cuc tranh lun v hi t

Cc nc ngho ui kp? Mc thu nhp ca cc nc ngho hi t vi cc nc giu? Mt s, nhng ch l thiu s. V d v hi t: Nht Bn, Php, Anh v M. Cc nc phi c chung nhng c im then cht nh: Chnh sch chnh ph T l tit kim (u t) Ngun ti nguyn thin nhin Cc c im v a l

10/21/2010

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Nc ngho c th ui kp?
Y L
Y/L developed

Y/L developing

K/L developing

K/L developed

K L

Macroeconomics Fall 2010

19

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Chng ta bit g v tng trng?

Tng trng do tch ly vn Tng trng do cng ngh Cc yu t th ch

10

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Nhng iu kin quan trng cho tng trng ti ng

Dn s c trnh gio dc tt cc cp ng xut pht t nn tng vn ha Khng gio vng chc v pht huy trn nn tng . T l tit kim v u t cao Thay i nhn khu hc nhanh chng khi t l sinh sn v t l t vong gim nhanh, to iu kin cho tit kim cao. Chnh sch ca nh nc l rt quan trng trong vic m bo sut sinh li cao trong u t, t dn n tit kim ni a cao chuyn sang u t (v s mang tit kim nc ngoi vo thng qua u t trc tip nc ngoi FDI). nh hng m ca vi bn ngoi (thc y xut khu, FDI) Ch yu s gip ngnh sn xut cng nghip tng trng nhanh chng, v xut khu khng b rng buc bi qui m nh ca th trng ni a.

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Nhng iu kin quan trng cho tng trng ti ng

S dng vn u t khn kho vo nhng hot ng u t cho nng sut cao. Cc nc giu ti nguyn c bit kh khn khi lm vic ny (Indonesia, thp nin 90 v phn ln lc a chu Phi), ngc li a s cc nc ng li ngho v ti nguyn (ngoi tr mt s vng ng Nam ). Mi trng kinh t v m n nh (Lm pht thp, thm ht ngn sch v ti khon vng lai trong tm kim sot)

Mi trng chnh tr n nh c li cho u t. (Chnh sch, b my nh nc, cc cuc cch mng, ni chin)

11

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

c im ca cc nc tng trng nhanh

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. n nh chnh tr v kinh t v m u t vo y t v gio dc Cc th ch v qun l nh nc hu hiu Mi trng thun li cho cc doanh nghip t nhn iu kin a l thun li

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

C hi tng trng cc nc ng v ng Nam

Dn s c trnh gio dc tt cc cp T l tit kim v u t cao nh hng m ca vi bn ngoi (thc y xut khu, FDI) 4. S dng vn u t khn kho vo nhng hot ng u t cho nng sut cao. 5. Mi trng kinh t v m n nh (lm pht thp, thm ht ti khon vng lai trong tm kim sot) 6. Mi trng chnh tr n nh c li cho u t. 1. 2. 3.

12

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Tng trng da vo xut khu th v FDI

Khng hong ti chnh chu

Tng trng da vo u t v XK CN

Hip nh TM VN-HK

1000

Gia nhp WTO

n nh v m

Khng hong kinh t ton cu

2004

Bc tranh tng trng Vit Nam

10

GDP per capita (US$)

800

600

GDP b/q u ngi (USD) Tng trng GDP (%)

400 4

200

0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ngun: Nguyn Xun Thnh (2010), tnh ton t s liu Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

u t v m rng ti chnh thc y tng trng

T l u t/GDP (%)
45% China

T l tn dng ni a/GDP (%)

180% 160%

40% Vietnam 35%

China 140% 120% Thailand

India

100% Vietnam 80%

30%

Thailand 25% Indonesia 20%

60% 40%

India

Indonesia 20% 0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

15%

GDP growth (%)

Ngun: Ngn hng Th gii, World Development Indicators

2008

13

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Kh nng tng trng bn vng

u t vi t l so vi GDP ngy mt cao: Nhng, u t (cng v ca DNNN) khng hiu qu To thm ht ngn sch To nhu cu nhp khu ln Tn dng m rng nhm ti tr u t Nhng, tc tng tn dng qu cao so vi tc tng GDP to p lc lm pht Tn dng chy vo cc th trng ti sn lm ny sinh bong bng ti sn. Xut khu tng trng nhanh v a dng, c bit l cng nghip ch bin Nhng, xut khu cng nghip ch bin phi da nhiu vo nhp khu nguyn ph liu. Chnh sch thc y s pht trin ca cc ngnh cng nghip ph tr l thng qua cc tp on, tng cng ty v doanh nghip nh nc nhng khng hiu qu.

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Ba khu vc kinh t Vit Nam

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2001-04 State Non-state 2007 Foreign invested 54% 46% 32% 14%

19% 36%

Source: FETP Policy Paper 3 (2008)

14

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

ng gp cho tng trng theo khu vc

Source: Choosing Success (FETP 2008)

Macroeconomics Fall 2010 29

Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

ng gp v gi tr gia tng ca ba khu vc

Source: Choosing Success (FETP 2008)

Macroeconomics Fall 2010 30

15

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Lecture 5: Growth and Debates

Thch thc vi tng trng ca Vit Nam

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. n nh v m Ci thin khu vc DNNN Xy dng c s h tng To mi trng kinh doanh cnh tranh Pht trin gio dc v o to

Macroeconomics Fall 2010

31

16