Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No.

6, 2009,
Pages 900 - 911

The Roads Ahead: Collision Risks, Trends,

and Safety of Drivers

Sandy Helene Straus 1 * and Xiaojun Gu 1

The propensity of fatal traffic collisions transcends driver age and reinforces the need
to evaluate, among other factors, the impact of roadway lighting and other features
of driver vision, perception, and performance. Collisions may result from a driver’s
inability to notice delineation, recognize warnings, and other possible road safety controls
during various lighting conditions. Hence we compare the relative accident involvement
ratio (RAIR) of collisions of millions of drivers from two U.S. States over an 11-year
period, 1991–2001. We associate collision trends through RAIR with bathtub curves
that are commonly identified with product failure and reliability engineering. Hence
we observe the need for improved and automated driver’s license testing techniques
and applications, especially as these relate to the visual and cognitive abilities of drivers
of all ages. Our findings may ultimately improve motorist safety, save lives, and
benefit numerous other states, countries, and agencies, including, but not limited to,
aviation, commercial vehicles, maritime, and rail sectors, among others.

1
ESRA Consulting Corporation, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
* Address correspondence to Sandy Straus, ESRA Consulting Corporation,
strauss@esracorp.com

Abstract reprinted with permission of Wiley Interscience, Wiley-Blackwell, and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122245215/abstract
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