SPATIAL AND DYNAMIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR LAND USE CHANGE DYNAMICS STUDY

Novaline Jacoba, Krishnan R, Prasada Raju PVSP, Saibaba J

Advanced Data Processing Research Institute (ADRIN) De art!ent o" S ace, #overn!ent o" India $%&, A'bar Road, (arbund, )anovi'asnagar P* Secunderabad +%%%%,, India a e!ail - novalinejacob./ahoo0co0in
KEYWORDS- #IS, 1ellular Auto!ata, 2and 3se 1hange, 2and degradation, )ulti 1riteria Decision )a'ing

ABSTRACT (his a er resents a rotot/ e o" a si!ulation !odel based on cellular auto!ata (1A), and !ulti criteria evaluation, integrated 4ith #eogra hic In"or!ation S/ste! (#IS)0 )ulti criteria evaluation rocedure is used to derive behavior5oriented transition rules0 (he 1A !odel is built 4ithin a grid5#IS s/ste! o" AR16IN7* #IS using arc !acro language to "acilitate eas/ access to #IS databases "or constructing the constraints0 A suitabilit/5based cellular auto!ata !odel has been develo ed to si!ulate land use change d/na!ics through the conce ts o" 8 robabilit/ o" ha ening o" the d/na!ic heno!enon9 and 8suitabilit/ o" the land "or the d/na!ic heno!enon90 2and degradation is the d/na!ic heno!enon that has been !odeled in the resent stud/0 It can be used as a use"ul lanning tool to test the e""ects o" di""erent land use change scenarios0

1. INTRODUCTION
#eogra hic In"or!ation S/ste!s (#IS) rovide rich s atial databases but have been traditionall/ static0 (he cou ling o" d/na!ic !odels to #IS rovides an insight to the evolution o" s atial heno!ena as discussed b/ #ross!an and :berhardt (;,,$)0 Di""erential e<uations and artial di""erential e<uations have been the !athe!atical tools o" choice "or !ost o" the d/na!ic !odels that have been develo ed0 (o""oli (;,=>) and (o""oli and )argolus (;,=?) ro osed cellular auto!ata !odels to re lace di""erential e<uation !odels0 (he theor/ o" cellular auto!ata 4as "irst introduced b/ John (;,@@)0 *ne o" the best 'no4n and ioneering studies in this area 4as done b/ John et al0 (;,=$), #ardener (;,?>), 4hich e!erged in 1on4a/9s #a!e o" li"e0 Ahile this 4or' 4as essentiall/ abstract, it de!onstrated that the re eated a lication o" ver/ si! le rules to so!e rando! initial state could generate interesting, and recurring atterns as the state o" the s/ste! evolved0 In recent /ears the/ have been increasingl/ used in the si!ulation o" co! leB s/ste!s such as biological re roduction, che!icall/ sel"5organiCing s/ste!s, ro agation heno!enon, and hu!an settle!ents0 A series o" urban !odels based on 1A techni<ues have been re orted (Datt/ and Eie, ;,,>F Ahite and :ngelen, ;,,&F Au ;,,=F 2i and Geh, $%%;)0 (here are nu!erous studies on the detection o" land use change using re!ote sensing and #IS (Ho4arth ;,=@, Jensen et al0 ;,,+, 2i and Geh, ;,,=)0 Ho4ever, there is a general lac' o" studies on the si!ulation o" land use changes because o" their co! leBities0 2o and Eiaojun ($%%$) have studied the drivers o" land use 6 land cover changes in Atlanta using re!ote sensing data and e! lo/ed a rocess5based 1A !odel to si!ulate the urban gro4th and landsca e changes0 2i and Geh ($%%$) resents a ne4 !ethod to si!ulate the

evolution o" !ulti le land uses based on the integration o" neural net4or's and cellular auto!ata using #IS0 (raditionall/ #IS, !eans a s/ste! ca able o" storing, !ani ulating, anal/Cing and dis la/ing s atial data0 It lac's the abilit/ to !odel a d/na!ic heno!enon in s atial5 te! oral do!ain0 Dut it can act as a lat"or! on 4hich "urther !odeling ca abilities can be built0 In the resent stud/, an atte! t has been !ade to enhance the s atial !odeling ca abilit/ o" a #IS to address s atial d/na!ic !odeling roble!, through 1ellular Auto!ata and )ulti51riteria :valuation rocedures0 A suitabilit/5based cellular auto!ata !odel has been develo ed, 4hich can evolve an organiCed global attern "ro! locall/ de"ined behavior, because o" the interaction bet4een a site and its neighborhood0 State transitions are governed b/ transition rules, 4hich are universall/ a lied and are de"ined through !ulti5criteria evaluation rocedures0 (his can act as a generic "ra!e4or', 4hich can handle an/ 'ind o" s atial d/na!ic heno!enon0 (he !ethod has been tested and evaluated b/ !odeling land degradation rocess0

2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Cellula Au!"#a!a A 1ellular Auto!ata s/ste! usuall/ consists o" "our ele!ents I cells, states, neighborhoods and rules0 1ells are the s!allest units, 4hich !ani"est adjacenc/ or roBi!it/0 (he state o" a cell can change according to transition rules, 4hich are de"ined in ter!s o" neighborhood "unctions and other suitabilit/ criteria0 1A are cell5based !ethods that can !odel t4o5di!ensional s ace0 Decause o" this underl/ing "eature, it

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beco!es eas/ to use 1A to si!ulate land use change, urban develo !ent and other changes o" geogra hical heno!ena0 )ost current #IS techni<ues have li!itations in !odeling changes in the landsca e over ti!e, but the integration o" 1A and #IS has de!onstrated considerable otential (Ita!i ;,==, Dead!an et al0 ;,,&)0 (he li!itations o" conte! orar/ #IS include, its oor abilit/ to handle d/na!ic s atial !odels, oor er"or!ance "or !an/ o erations, and oor handling o" the te! oral di!ension (Par' and Aagner ;,,?)0 In cou ling #IS 4ith 1A, 1A can serve as an anal/tical engine to rovide a "leBible "ra!e4or' "or the rogra!!ing and running o" d/na!ic s atial !odels0 )asanao and 1ouclelis (;,,?) addresses a generaliCed !odeling "or!alis! o" 1A, 4hich is eBtended 4ith #eo5algebra ca able o" eB ressing a variet/ o" d/na!ic s atial !odels 4ithin a co!!on "ra!e4or'0 2.2 S!a!e$%a&e' Cellula Au!"#a!a In a standard 1A !odel, the state is usuall/ used as the !ain attribute to describe the develo !ent o" a cell0 An/ cell cannot ta'e on !ore than one state si!ultaneousl/, although the state can change "ro! one to another in di""erent eriods0 In land degradation si!ulation, the !ost general state "or a cell is degraded or not degraded0 (he essence o" 1A is that the states o" the neighboring cells in"luence the state o" the central cell0 (he notion o" neighborhood is central to the 1A aradig! (1ouclelis ;,,?), but the de"inition o" neighborhood is rather relaBed0 A si! le !odel is to roject the state o" a central cell using a &E& 4indo4 to count the distribution o" states in its neighboring cells0 2and use classes 4ere grou ed into three categories- degraded, degradable or rone to degradation and non5degradable, 4hich beco!es the state o" a cell0 2.( Su)!a%)l)!*$%a&e' Cellula Au!"#a!a )ore so histicated 1A s/ste!s have been "urther develo ed to si!ulate urban gro4th through the conce ts o" 8develo !ent robabilit/9 and 8develo !ent suitabilit/9 (Ahite et al0 ;,,?)0 (his 'ind o" si!ulation assu!es a relation bet4een the states (develo ed or not), develo !ent robabilit/ and develo !ent suitabilit/StJ; KB,/L M " (PtKB,/L) PtKB,/L M "(DStKB,/L) Ahere SKB,/L is the state at location KB,/LF PKB,/L is the robabilit/ o" transition to the state S at the locationF and DSKB,/L is the suitabilit/ o" conversion to the state S0 " and " are transition "unctions0 Suitabilit/5based cellular auto!ata di""ers "ro! state5based cellular auto!ata, in 4hich the state o" a cell not onl/ de ends on the state o" its neighborhood, but also chec's "or its degree o" suitabilit/ (DS) "or develo !ent, 4hich in turn is based on a nu!ber o" terrain5related "actors0 (his logic has been eBtended in the resent stud/ to !odel land degradation d/na!ics0 It is obvious that the 1A si!ulation heavil/ de ends on the calculation o" suitabilit/ score based on neighborhood con"iguration0 (he suitabilit/ o" a cell "or degradation is usuall/ evaluated according to location "actors and site ro erties0 (he conversion criterion is that cells 4ith high degree o" suitabilit/ 4ill be "irst selected "or degradation0 )uch 4or' has been done on the evaluation

o" land suitabilit/, 4hich usuall/ involves !ulti criteria evaluation techni<ues (Novaline et al0, $%%;)0 2and suitabilit/, 4hich describes the otential o" a cell "or a s eci"ic t/ e o" land use, can act as an i! ortant constraint in the 1A !odel0 7or eBa! le, 4e !a/ allo4 "aster land degradation in dr/ land area and !ore restricted or slo4er degradation in vegetated area0 (here"ore, suitabilit/ la/s an i! ortant role in a""ecting the state or the trans"er o" the state o" a cell in an idealiCed situation0 Suitabilit/ scores should be re5co! uted in each iteration to achieve co! atible land use0 (he !odel !a/ be eB ressed as a t4o5di!ension !odel, including states S(t) and suitabilit/ DS(t)(StJ;, DStJ;) M " (St, DSt, N) 4here N, is the neighborhood roviding in ut values "or the transition "unction "0 2.(.1 Mul!) C )!e )a E+alua!)", !e-.,)/ue 0" La,' Su)!a%)l)!* a,al*&)&- )ulti criteria decision5!a'ing ()1D)) roble!s involve a set o" alternatives that are evaluated on the basis o" a set o" evaluation criteria0 (he !ulti criteria decision anal/sis has recentl/ received considerable attention in #IS0 1o!bining di""erent "actors, so!e eBclusionar/ and so!e eB edient, re<uires a 4eighting "actor0 Alternate a roaches to #IS5based !ulti criteria anal/sis have been suggested to overco!e the roble! o" 4eighting and data integration0 Anal/tic Hierarch/ Process (AHP) has been identi"ied as a 4eighting strateg/ and 1o! ro!ise Progra!!ing (1P) techni<ue has been identi"ied "or data integration (Novaline et al0 ;,,@, Dee'shatulu et0 al0 ;,,,)0 AHP is an a roach that can be used to deter!ine the relative i! ortance o" a set o" activities or criteria0 (he "irst ste o" the AHP is to "or! a hierarch/ o" objectives, criteria and all other ele!ents involved in the roble!0 *nce the hierarchical structure has been "or!ed, co! arison !atrices are to be develo ed0 (hese are evaluations !ade b/ the decision5!a'ers on the intensit/ o" di""erence in i! ortance, eB ressed as a ran' nu!ber on a given nu!erical scale, "or each level in the hierarch/0 7ro! these 4eights, riorities are deter!ined0 An eB ert 4ould be as'ed to !a'e air 4ise co! arisons bet4een t4o "actors at a ti!e, decide 4hich "actor is !ore i! ortant, then s eci"/ the degree o" i! ortance on a scale bet4een ; and , in 4hich , is !ost i! ortant0 (hese evaluations 4ould result in reci rocal !atrices o" the co! onents o" each level against the ite!s in the level above0 1onsistenc/ o" the !atriB has to be chec'ed and eigen value o" the !atriB has to be "ound0 3 on nor!aliCation o" the eigen vector corres onding to !aBi!u! eigen value, each "actor coverage 4ould have onl/ one 4eight associated 4ith it0 Another i! ortant roble! in #IS is ho4 to e""icientl/ integrate data "ro! various sources0 Aeighted linear additive !odel is the one that is 4idel/ used "or data integration and is done 4ith the hel o" algebraic "unctions available in an/ co!!ercial #IS ac'age0 In this, a total co! ensation bet4een criteria is assu!ed, !eaning that a decrease o" one unit on one criterion can be totall/ co! ensated b/ an e<uivalent gain on an/ other criteria0 Ideal Point Anal/sis, a 1o! ro!ise Progra!!ing techni<ue, is a !ethod to arrive at non5co! ensator/ solution0 It !easures the deviations "ro! the ideal oint in each data la/er and a !in5!aB rule is a lied 4herein !ini!u! o" the !aBi!u! 4eighted deviations are sought "or getting a co! osite la/er0

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(he best co! ro!ise solution is de"ined as that 4hich is at the !ini!u! distance "ro! the theoretical ideal0 Driver variables "or land degradation rocess include- terrain5related variables li'e drainageJ slo eJ soil teBtureJ dr/ land areaJ neighborhood agglo!erationF cli!atic variables li'e rain"allJ aridit/ indeBF socio5econo!ic variables li'e o ulationJ livestoc' and tube 4ell densit/0 Neighborhood agglo!eration la/er 4as derived b/ counting the nu!ber o" degraded cellsJ 4ithin a circular neighborhood 4ith radius o" + cells "ro! each cell and assigning the su! to the center cell0 IRS 2ISS III data 4as used to inter ret dr/ land areaJ soil teBture and drainage co!bined 4ith ground truth0 Slo e 4as generated "ro! the contours at ;-+%J%%% scale to osheet0 Aridit/ indeB 4as calculated "ro! the !eteorological data on te! eratureJ otential eva o trans iration and rain"all0 Socioecono!ic data on o ulationJ livestoc' and tube 4ell densit/ 4ere gathered "ro! census data0 (hese driver variables acted as the land degradation criterion in the !ulti criteria evaluation rocedure0 :ach o" the! 4as given a ro riate 4eight ado ting AHP rocedure0 Aeights given "or driver variables Neighborhood Agglo!eration - ;%% Drainage - ,% Soil (eBture - =% Slo e - ?% Dr/ land area - @+ Aridit/ IndeB - @% Rain "all - +% Po ulation densit/ - >% 2ivestoc' densit/ - &% (ube 4ell densit/ - ;% 7or eBa! leJ neighborhood agglo!eration 4as given higher re"erenceJ because in a cellular auto!ata !odelJ the state o" a cell 4ould de end on the state o" its neighborhood0 NeBt re"erence goes to terrain5related variables- drainageJ soil teBtureJ slo e and dr/ land areaJ o4ing to their obvious in"luence on land degradationF "ollo4ed b/ cli!atic variables- aridit/ indeBJ rain"all and socio5econo!ic variables- o ulationJ livestoc'J tube 4ell densit/0 (o derive the areas suitable or rone to degradation based on the said criteriaJ all the criterion !a s 4ere integrated ado ting Ideal Point Anal/sisJ a 1o! ro!ise rogra!!ing techni<ue0 Suitabilit/ score DS is co! uted using the distance !etric as belo4n DS M N i (BiO 5 Bi') P;6 i M; :<uation (;)

(raditionall/J 1A si!ulation onl/ uses a binar/ value to address the status o" conversion based on the calculation o" robabilit/0 (he robabilit/ o" conversion is calculated based on so!e 'ind o" neighborhood "unction0 3suall/J the robabilit/ is "urther co! ared 4ith a rando! value to decide 4hether a cell is converted or not (; "or converted and % "or non5converted)0 In our !odelJ the status o" cell has a continuous suitabilit/ value bet4een % and ; to re resent the ste 4ise selection or conversion rocess0 A cell 4ill not be suddenl/ selected or converted0 A stochastic disturbance ter! is added to re resent un'no4n errors during the si!ulation0 (his can allo4 the generated atterns to be closer to realit/0 Suitabilit/ values are converted into robabilit/ values b/ introducing a stochastic disturbance ara!eter 0 (hus this rule de"ines the robabilit/ o" site selection in ter!s o" land suitabilit/0 Since the neighborhood is used in evaluationJ land suitabilit/ here is d/na!icJ 4hich !eans that the !aBi!u! score o" land suitabilit/ is changing over si!ulation ti!e0 Ahile trans"or!ing the evaluation score into develo !ent robabilit/J one can use the !aBi!u! score o" evaluation during each si!ulation ti!e as a bench!ar' because it re resents a relative availabilit/ at the ti!e 4hen the decision is !ade0 (he robabilit/ is de"ined in a nonlinear "or! to the evaluation scorePtB/ M eB N ((DStB/ 6 DSt!aB) 5 ;)P i" DStB/ % :<uation ($) % i" DStB/ M % 4here PtB/ is the robabilit/ o" land conversion "ro! degradable to degraded land at the location B/ at ti!e tF DStB/ is the land suitabilit/ score at the sa!e location at ti!e tF DSt!aB is the !aBi!u! score o" land suitabilit/ at the si!ulation ti!e t o" calculationF and is the dis ersion ara!eter to be in ut through the "irst rule0 (he higher the value o" J the !ore stringent is the site selection rocess0 (he eB onent "unction in the e<uation ($) !a'es to behave in the re<uired "or!J li'eJ i" /ou decrease robabilit/ increasesJ thereb/ introducing stochastic disturbance in the si!ulation0 See "or eBa! leJ ho4 the robabilit/ value changes "or a suitabilit/ value o" %4hen M > J eB (5>) M %0%;= 4hen M ; J eB (5;) M %0&@?= 4hen M ;%J eB (5;%) M %0%%%%>+ (4hich is al!ost e<ual to %) I" DStB/ M DSt!aB M ; J then eB (%) M ; (i0e) i" suitabilit/ is high and e<uals ;J then robabilit/ M ;J irres ective o" an/ value o" (here"oreJ can ta'e a value bet4een % and ;%0 (he ( I ;) ter! in N((DStB/ 6 DSt!aB) 5 ;)PJ in the e<uation ($) !a'es the robabilit/ value range bet4een % and ;0 Decause o" ti!e li!its and in"or!ation barriersJ the best site is not al4a/s chosen0 2ess desirable sites still have a chance o" being degraded0 (husJ this rule introduces stochastic disturbance to the s/ste!0 Various values o" 4ere tried ranging bet4een ; and ;% and 4as set at > in the resent stud/ based on the calibration anal/sis0 A "lo4 chart describing the !ethodolog/ is sho4n in "igure ;0

4here i is the !a la/erJ is the criterion re"erence J BiO is the ideal oint J Bi' is the cell value in 'th cell "or ith ara!eter and is the "actor 4hich leads to non5co! ro!ising solution0 can ta'e values "ro! ; to in"init/0 Di""erent values "or 4ere tried and 4as set at > (Jose Q 2ucienJ ;,,&)0 1li!atic and socio5econo!ic data 4ere si!ulated ever/ /ear using their gro4th rate value co! uted er /ear0 And the land degradation suitabilit/ 4as reco! uted ever/ /ear0 2.1 P "%a%)l)!*$%a&e' Cellula Au!"#a!a

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(. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

(he 1A !odel is built 4ithin a grid5#IS s/ste! o" AR16IN7* #IS using arc !acro language0 (he !odel 4as a lied on arts o" degradation5 rone district in Andhra Pradesh, India covering an area o" @>;% s<uare 'ilo!eters0 2and degradation !a s corres onding to the /ears ;,=,, ;,,? and $%%$ 4ere rovided b/ National Re!ote Sensing Agenc/, India0 ;,=, data 4as used as the seed and ;,,? data 4as used "or calibration0 $%%$ data 4as used "or validation ("igure $)0 Prediction o" the land degradation rocess 4as done "or the neBt ;% /ears till $%;$ ("igure &)0 7urther rediction can also be done b/ a ro riatel/ redicting the gro4th rate o" cli!atic and socio5econo!ic variables that 4ere used in the !odel0 A si! le "or!ula "or calculating gro4th rate is gt M ((Bt 6 Bt5n) I;) O ;%%, 4here gt is the gro4th rate in eriod t, B is the variable being eBa!ined and n is the ti!e eriod o" interest0 7or each iteration (corres onding to one /ear), cells be/ond certain robabilit/ are selected0 (he threshold value is learnt through the calibration rocess0 During the calibration hase, the !odel 4as also tested 4ith di""erent values o" and 4as "inall/ set at >0 (he re"erence value given "or the driver variables 4ere also changed and the corres onding results 4ere chec'ed during the calibration hase0 7or the calibration data set corres onding to the /ear ;,,?, the ercentage o" correctl/ redicted cells is ?=0$?R0 7or the validation data set corres onding to the /ear $%%$, the ercentage o" correctl/ redicted cells is ??0@=R ("igure $)0
1alibration re ort "or ;,,? 1orrectl/ redicted-++@=$%, cells 1o!!ission error-?=>&>& cells *!ission error-?@;>=; cells Validation re ort "or $%%$ 1orrectl/ redicted-++&$;?;cells 1o!!ission error -=;+=$, cells *!ission error-??&=%;cells

1. CONCLUSION
Integrated 1A5#IS a roaches can enhance the current oor s atial d/na!ic !odeling ca abilit/ o" #IS (Par' and Aagner ;,,?)0 1A !odels can be co! letel/ develo ed 4ithin #IS "or easil/ accessing the in"or!ation stored in the #IS database during the !odeling rocesses0 1onstraints "or !odeling can be de"ined using #IS and re!ote sensing data0 Re!ote sensing can be used to obtain land use and other land5 related data, and this data can be trans"or!ed, so that it can be used in #IS "or anal/sis and !odeling0 (here"ore, the develo !ent o" 1A 4ithin #IS greatl/ enhances the abilit/ o" d/na!ic s atial !odeling 4ithin #IS0 Achieving rediction accuracies o" the order o" ?=R is a signi"icant tas', as d/na!ic terrain5related rocesses are co! licated and there could be a ossible o!ission o" so!e o" the driver variables, 4hich could not be recorded or !onitored0 (he integrated 1A5#IS "ra!e4or' roves to be a ro!ising environ!ent, 4herein a variet/ o" s atial5d/na!ic heno!ena can be !odeled0 (he !odel develo ed "or si!ulating the s atial d/na!ic rocess can be used as a lanning tool to test the e""ects o" di""erent land use change scenarios0 1ellular Auto!ata are seen not onl/ as a "ra!e4or' "or d/na!ic s atial !odeling, but also as a aradig! "or thin'ing about co! leB s atial5te! oral heno!ena and an eB eri!ental laborator/ "or testing ideas0

REFERENCES
Datt/, )0, and Eie0G, ;,,>, 7ro! cells to cities0 :nviron!ent and Planning D- Planning and Design, $;, +&;5+>=0 1ouclelis, H0, ;,,?, 7ro! 1ellular auto!ata to urban !odelsne4 rinci les "or !odel develo !ent and i! le!entation0 :nviron!ent and Planning D- Planning and Design, $>, ;@+5;?>0 Dead!an, P0D0, Dro4n, R0D0, and #i!blett, H0R0, ;,,&, )odeling rural residential settle!ent atterns 4ith cellular auto!ata0 Journal o" :nviron!ental )anage!ent, &?, ;>?5;@%0 Dee'shatulu, D020, Krishnan, R0, Novaline, J0, ;,,,, S atial Anal/sis and )odelling (echni<ues I A Revie40 Proceedings o" #eoin"or!atics 5 De/ond $%%% con"erence, Published b/ Indian Institute o" Re!ote Sensing (;,,,), DehraDun, India, $@=5$?+0 #ardener, )0, ;,?>, (he #a!e o" 2i"e, (i!e, Januar/ $;0 #ross!an, A0D0, and :berhardt, S0, ;,,$, #eogra hical In"or!ation S/ste!s and d/na!ic !odeling0 (he Annals o" Regional Science, $@, +&5@@0 Ho4arth, P0 J0, ;,=@, 2andsat digital enhance!ents "or change detection in urban environ!ent0 Re!ote Sensing o" :nviron!ent, ;&, ;>,5;@%0

1orrectl/ redicted cells include, degraded and non5degraded cells resent in both original land degradation !a and the redicted land degradation la/er0 1o!!ission error indicates cells, 4hich 4ere not "ound as degraded in original land degradation !a , but has been redicted as degraded0 *!ission error indicates cells, 4hich 4ere "ound as degraded in original land degradation !a , but has not been redicted as degraded0 D/na!ic terrain5related rocesses are co! licated in nature as nu!ber o" "actors la/s a role in realit/0 So!e o" the drivers, 4hich could have la/ed a role in the degradation rocess, could have been o!itted, ossibl/ because the/ could not be recorded or !onitored0 In the resent stud/ a robabilit/5based cellular auto!ata has been i! le!ented0 A state5based cellular 4hich is based on the neighborhood con"iguration alone has evolved into suitabilit/5based cellular auto!ata and then into a robabilit/5based cellular auto!ata 4ith the inclusion o" suitabilit/ score and stochastic disturbance "actors0 In state5 based cellular auto!ata, the state o" a cell 4ill de end on the state o" the neighboring cells0 It beco!es !ore logical to include the land suitabilit/ "or degradation score as another "actor contributing to the degradation rocess in addition to neighborhood con"iguration0 Also, the stochastic disturbance "actor hel ed in creating so!e rando!ness and too' care o" so!e o" the un'no4n errors in the si!ulation0

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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences. Vol. XXXVII. Part B2. Beijing 2008

Ita!i, R0)0, ;,==, 1ellular 4orlds- !odels "or d/na!ic conce tions o" landsca e0 2andsca e Architecture, Jul/6August, +$5+?0 John, 10, Derle'a! , :0, and #u/, R0, ;,=$, Ainning Aa/s, Vol0 $, Ne4 Gor' - Acade!ic Press0 John, V0N0, ;,@@, (heor/ o" Sel"5Re roducing Auto!ata, Dur's, A0A0 (:d0), 3rbana, Illinois- 3niversit/ o" Illinois Press0 Jose, )010P0, Q 2ucien, D0, ;,,&, A )ulti le 1riteria Decision5)a'ing a roach to #IS5based 2and Suitabilit/ :valuation0 International Journal o" #eogra hic In"or!ation S/ste!s, Vol0 ?, No0 +, >%? I >$>0 Jensen, J0 R0, Rutche/, K0, Koch, )0 S0, and Naru!alani, S0, ;,,+, Inland 4etland change detection in the :verglades 4ater conservation area using a ti!e series o" nor!aliCed re!otel/ sensed data0 Photogra!!etric :ngineering and Re!ote Sensing, @;, ;,,5$%,0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, ;,,=, Princi al co! onent anal/sis o" stac'ed !ulti5te! oral i!ages "or the !onitoring o" ra id urban eB ansion in the Pearl River Delta0 International Journal o" Re!ote Sensing, ;,, ;+%;5;+;=0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, $%%;, 1alibration o" cellular auto!ata b/ using neural net4or's "or the si!ulation o" co! leB urban s/ste!s0 :nviron!ent and Planning A, &&, ;>>+5;>@$0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, $%%$, Neural5net4or'5based cellular auto!ata "or si!ulating !ulti le land use changes using #IS0 International Journal o" #eogra hical In"or!ation Science, Vol0 ;@, No0 >, &$&5&>&0 2o, 10 P0, and Eiaojun, G0, $%%$, Drivers o" 2and5use 6 2and5 cover 1hanges and D/na!ic )odelling "or the Atlanta, #eorgia )etro olitan Area0 Photogra!!etric :ngineering Q Re!ote Sensing, Vol0 @=, No0 ;%, *ctober $%%$, ;%?&5;%=$0

)asanao, (0, and 1ouclelis, H0, ;,,?, )a d/na!icsintegrating cellular auto!ata and #IS through #eo5Algebra0 International Journal #eogra hical In"or!ation S/ste!, Vol0 ;;, No0 ;, ?&5,;0 Novaline, J0, Q Saibaba, J0, ;,,@, :nhancing the decision5 !a'ing ca abilities o" #IS b/ adding S ecialised tools0 Proceedings o" #eo!atics con"erence, Published b/ Indian Institute o" Re!ote Sensing (;,,@), DehraDun, India0 Novaline, J0, Saibaba, J0, Prasada, R0, Krishnan, R0, and Subra!anian, S0K0, $%%;, Site selection "or 4ater harvesting structure in 4atershed develo !ent using DecisionS ace0 Proceedings o" #eo!atics I $%%; con"erence, Published b/ Indian Institute o" Re!ote Sensing ($%%;), DehraDun, India, >+5>,0 Par', S0, and Aagner, D070, ;,,?, Incor orating cellular auto!ata si!ulators as anal/tical engines in #IS0 (ransactions in #IS, $, $;&5$&;0 (o""oli, (0, ;,=>, 1ellular auto!ata as an alternative to (rather than an a roBi!ation o" di""erential e<uations in !odeling h/sics0 Ph/sica, ;%D, ;;?5$?0 (o""oli, (0 and )argolus, N0, ;,=?, 1ellular Auto!ata- A Ne4 :nviron!ent "or )odeling0 1a!bridge, )A - )I( Press0 Ahite, R0, and :ngelen, #0, ;,,&, 1ellular auto!ata and "ractal urban "or!- A cellular !odeling a roach to the evolution o" urban land5use atterns, :nviron!ent and Planning A, $+, ;;?+5;;,,0 Ahite, R0, :ngelen, #0, and 3ijee, I0, ;,,?, (he use o" constrained cellular auto!ata "or high5resolution !odeling o" urban land5use d/na!ics0 :nviron!ent and Planning D, $>, &$&5&>&0 Au, 70, ;,,=, An eB eri!ent on the generic ol/centricit/ o" urban gro4th in a cellular auto!ata cit/, :nviron!ent and Planning D- Planning and Design, $+, ;%&5;$@0

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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences. Vol. XXXVII. Part B2. Beijing 2008

ellular #utomata 'odel !or Land Degradation D%nami*s

Land use map 1989 1989 Driver Variables Terrain : Neighborhood#gglomeration Drainage $oil Te&ture $lope Dr% land area limate : #ridit% )nde& "ain!all $o*ioe*onomi* : +opulation densit% Livesto*, densit% Tube /ell densit% $ele*t *ells - *ertain probabilit% . Degraded ells +robabilit% o! Degradation alibration ' D' ( ompromise programming !or generating $uitabilit% !or Degradation inde& $to*hasti* Disturban*e $imulation o! driver variables ever% %ear 1997 1997 2002 2002 Degraded Degradable Land Degradation map omputation o! "ate o! hange Non-Degradable

7igure ;0 7lo4 1hart describing the 1ellular Auto!ata !ethodolog/

Predicted "or ;,,?

Predicted "or $%%$

2egend 1orrectl/ Predicted 1o!!ission :rror *!ission :rror

% >%%% Kilo!eters

7igure $0 Validation results "or 1ellular Auto!ata si!ulation o" 2and Degradation

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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences. Vol. XXXVII. Part B2. Beijing 2008

Ita!i, R0)0, ;,==, 1ellular 4orlds- !odels "or d/na!ic conce tions o" landsca e0 2andsca e Architecture, Jul/6August, +$5+?0 John, 10, Derle'a! , :0, and #u/, R0, ;,=$, Ainning Aa/s, Vol0 $, Ne4 Gor' - Acade!ic Press0 John, V0N0, ;,@@, (heor/ o" Sel"5Re roducing Auto!ata, Dur's, A0A0 (:d0), 3rbana, Illinois- 3niversit/ o" Illinois Press0 Jose, )010P0, Q 2ucien, D0, ;,,&, A )ulti le 1riteria Decision5)a'ing a roach to #IS5based 2and Suitabilit/ :valuation0 International Journal o" #eogra hic In"or!ation S/ste!s, Vol0 ?, No0 +, >%? I >$>0 Jensen, J0 R0, Rutche/, K0, Koch, )0 S0, and Naru!alani, S0, ;,,+, Inland 4etland change detection in the :verglades 4ater conservation area using a ti!e series o" nor!aliCed re!otel/ sensed data0 Photogra!!etric :ngineering and Re!ote Sensing, @;, ;,,5$%,0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, ;,,=, Princi al co! onent anal/sis o" stac'ed !ulti5te! oral i!ages "or the !onitoring o" ra id urban eB ansion in the Pearl River Delta0 International Journal o" Re!ote Sensing, ;,, ;+%;5;+;=0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, $%%;, 1alibration o" cellular auto!ata b/ using neural net4or's "or the si!ulation o" co! leB urban s/ste!s0 :nviron!ent and Planning A, &&, ;>>+5;>@$0 2i, E0, and Geh, A0#0*0, $%%$, Neural5net4or'5based cellular auto!ata "or si!ulating !ulti le land use changes using #IS0 International Journal o" #eogra hical In"or!ation Science, Vol0 ;@, No0 >, &$&5&>&0 2o, 10 P0, and Eiaojun, G0, $%%$, Drivers o" 2and5use 6 2and5 cover 1hanges and D/na!ic )odelling "or the Atlanta, #eorgia )etro olitan Area0 Photogra!!etric :ngineering Q Re!ote Sensing, Vol0 @=, No0 ;%, *ctober $%%$, ;%?&5;%=$0

)asanao, (0, and 1ouclelis, H0, ;,,?, )a d/na!icsintegrating cellular auto!ata and #IS through #eo5Algebra0 International Journal #eogra hical In"or!ation S/ste!, Vol0 ;;, No0 ;, ?&5,;0 Novaline, J0, Q Saibaba, J0, ;,,@, :nhancing the decision5 !a'ing ca abilities o" #IS b/ adding S ecialised tools0 Proceedings o" #eo!atics con"erence, Published b/ Indian Institute o" Re!ote Sensing (;,,@), DehraDun, India0 Novaline, J0, Saibaba, J0, Prasada, R0, Krishnan, R0, and Subra!anian, S0K0, $%%;, Site selection "or 4ater harvesting structure in 4atershed develo !ent using DecisionS ace0 Proceedings o" #eo!atics I $%%; con"erence, Published b/ Indian Institute o" Re!ote Sensing ($%%;), DehraDun, India, >+5>,0 Par', S0, and Aagner, D070, ;,,?, Incor orating cellular auto!ata si!ulators as anal/tical engines in #IS0 (ransactions in #IS, $, $;&5$&;0 (o""oli, (0, ;,=>, 1ellular auto!ata as an alternative to (rather than an a roBi!ation o" di""erential e<uations in !odeling h/sics0 Ph/sica, ;%D, ;;?5$?0 (o""oli, (0 and )argolus, N0, ;,=?, 1ellular Auto!ata- A Ne4 :nviron!ent "or )odeling0 1a!bridge, )A - )I( Press0 Ahite, R0, and :ngelen, #0, ;,,&, 1ellular auto!ata and "ractal urban "or!- A cellular !odeling a roach to the evolution o" urban land5use atterns, :nviron!ent and Planning A, $+, ;;?+5;;,,0 Ahite, R0, :ngelen, #0, and 3ijee, I0, ;,,?, (he use o" constrained cellular auto!ata "or high5resolution !odeling o" urban land5use d/na!ics0 :nviron!ent and Planning D, $>, &$&5&>&0 Au, 70, ;,,=, An eB eri!ent on the generic ol/centricit/ o" urban gro4th in a cellular auto!ata cit/, :nviron!ent and Planning D- Planning and Design, $+, ;%&5;$@0

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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences. Vol. XXXVII. Part B2. Beijing 2008

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