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    The Dynamics of Energy Systems and The Logistic Substitution Model - Marchetti and Nakicenovic (Part 1 of 2)

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    Paolo
    Information, material and energy are the basic constituents of civilization, and it is most natural that we should try to assess their respective roles and internal mechanisms. The question of energy has been enjoying much attention lately, partly because of the very successful move by the oil cartel in 1973. The political consequences and the promotional infrastructure of that move generated a highly emotional atmosphere, inimical to an objective appreciation of the facts. In this study in IIASA's Energy Systems program, we have attempted to leave aside emotions and ad hoc interpretations. Sticking only to the facts, we have tried to find out if they have an internal order of their own, or, in the terminology of physics, if they can be described phenomenologically. We find that this is possible. Our initial working hypothesis was that primary energies, such as wood, coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy, are just technologies competing for market. Consequently, market penetration analysis, as it has been developed by mansfield (1961) and many others, should be applicable. In order to test the power an limits of this analysis, we worked on as many examples as could be used, on three different levels of aggregation. Primary energy inputs for the world as a whole Primary energy inputs for individual nations or clusters of nations Energy subsystems, such as electric utilities

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    The Dynamics of Energy Systems and The Logistic Substitution Model - Marchetti and Nakicenovic (Part 1 of 2)

    Uploaded by

    Paolo
    71 views44 pages
    Information, material and energy are the basic constituents of civilization, and it is most natural that we should try to assess their respective roles and internal mechanisms. The question of energy has been enjoying much attention lately, partly because of the very successful move by the oil cartel in 1973. The political consequences and the promotional infrastructure of that move generated a highly emotional atmosphere, inimical to an objective appreciation of the facts. In this study in IIASA's Energy Systems program, we have attempted to leave aside emotions and ad hoc interpretations. Sticking only to the facts, we have tried to find out if they have an internal order of their own, or, in the terminology of physics, if they can be described phenomenologically. We find that this is possible. Our initial working hypothesis was that primary energies, such as wood, coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy, are just technologies competing for market. Consequently, market penetration analysis, as it has been developed by mansfield (1961) and many others, should be applicable. In order to test the power an limits of this analysis, we worked on as many examples as could be used, on three different levels of aggregation. Primary energy inputs for the world as a whole Primary energy inputs for individual nations or clusters of nations Energy subsystems, such as electric utilities

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    The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model - Marchetti and Nakicenovic (Part 1 of 2)

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    Information, material and energy are the basic constituents of civilization, and it is most natural that we should try to assess their respective roles and internal mechanisms. The question of energy has been enjoying much attention lately, partly because of the very successful move by the oil cartel in 1973. The political consequences and the promotional infrastructure of that move generated a highly emotional atmosphere, inimical to an objective appreciation of the facts. In this study in IIASA's Energy Systems program, we have attempted to leave aside emotions and ad hoc interpretations. Sticking only to the facts, we have tried to find out if they have an internal order of their own, or, in the terminology of physics, if they can be described phenomenologically. We find that this is possible. Our initial working hypothesis was that primary energies, such as wood, coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy, are just technologies competing for market. Consequently, market penetration analysis, as it has been developed by mansfield (1961) and many others, should be applicable. In order to test the power an limits of this analysis, we worked on as many examples as could be used, on three different levels of aggregation. Primary energy inputs for the world as a whole Primary energy inputs for individual nations or clusters of nations Energy subsystems, such as electric utilities

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    71 views44 pages

    The Dynamics of Energy Systems and The Logistic Substitution Model - Marchetti and Nakicenovic (Part 1 of 2)

    Uploaded by

    Paolo
    Information, material and energy are the basic constituents of civilization, and it is most natural that we should try to assess their respective roles and internal mechanisms. The question of energy has been enjoying much attention lately, partly because of the very successful move by the oil cartel in 1973. The political consequences and the promotional infrastructure of that move generated a highly emotional atmosphere, inimical to an objective appreciation of the facts. In this study in IIASA's Energy Systems program, we have attempted to leave aside emotions and ad hoc interpretations. Sticking only to the facts, we have tried to find out if they have an internal order of their own, or, in the terminology of physics, if they can be described phenomenologically. We find that this is possible. Our initial working hypothesis was that primary energies, such as wood, coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy, are just technologies competing for market. Consequently, market penetration analysis, as it has been developed by mansfield (1961) and many others, should be applicable. In order to test the power an limits of this analysis, we worked on as many examples as could be used, on three different levels of aggregation. Primary energy inputs for the world as a whole Primary energy inputs for individual nations or clusters of nations Energy subsystems, such as electric utilities

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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