HDTV Demand Forecast

EIA forecasted 25% penetration in US market & at least 10% in total TV industry by 1999. Other forecast predicted similar pattern as that of color TV, a slower penetration on contrary with EIA & Pearlmans projection.

Forecasting HDTV Adoption by Analogy

Although slow growth rate, color TV penetrated 98% of US markets by 1990. VCR was volume driven with low margin but with faster penetration. Camcorder on contrary had only 10% penetration but with good profit margin. Likewise Projection TV with 4% but with average retail price of $2500 Question Whether follow high profit business model or high volume. Another factor NTSC will continue to be sold even after HDTV introduction.

Marketing Role in Forecasting the Demand

Market research teams were created to determine the Market size Extra feature consumer are willing to pay Identifying the early adopters Impact of 16:9 aspect ratio Acceptance rate

Willingness & reaction of Broadcasters to adapt to HDTV standards & aspect ratio

Advent & usage of HD recording devices among the directors & TV industry