AN OVERVIEW OF COUNTRY PRACTICES Introduction During the years since the 1979 issue of this publication1, quarterly national

accounts have seen a substantial evolution. This can be measured in terms of an increase in the number of quarterly series which countries compile; improved integration of the quarterly series with other components of the ystem of !ational "ccounts; improved estimation techniques; and, most important, an increase in the number of countries compiling quarterly series. #nly four of the $% &ember countries '(elgium, )celand, )reland, *u+embourg, have no tradition as yet of producing quarterly national accounts. -ortugal and .reece have produced quarterly accounts in the past, but are in the process of revising their methodology. &e+ico, the most recent &ember country, is developing quarterly accounts. The te+t of this publication is concerned with the other 1/ &ember countries for which information on their data sources and methods of estimation is available. The intent of this report, as with the 1979 issue, is to summarise the methods employed by #01D &ember countries in the quarterly estimation of .ross Domestic -roduct. This informatiion is useful to both users and compilers of quarterly national accounts. Descriptions are given for 1/ countries in the individual country chapters that follow. These descriptions concentrate on estimates for the current year rather than the brea2down of previously established annual figures into quarterly data, even though the indicators used to derive the quarterly estimate may be the same in both cases. 0ach chapter deals in turn with the production, e+penditure and income approach to estimating .D-. Descriptions are given for each approach used by a country, but a particular caveat is worthy of mention at this point. 3or countries where more than one approach is described, it does not follow that the approaches are entirely independent of one another. 3irstly, components of the value added, e+penditure and income flows which are closely related are sometimes estimated from the same basic data source. econdly, it is not always possible to estimate directly all components of a particular .D- approach due to gaps in the source statistics. 1onsequently, some components are derived as a residual. &ost often these residuals are operating surplus in the income approach and change in inventories in the e+penditure approach. )f only one approach has been used to calculate total .D-, it follows that the 4residual4 component in any other approach necessarily includes a statistical discrepancy. )n instances where more than one independent approach to the measurement of .D- is underta2en, any difference in the results can be handled in a number of ways. #ne of the results may be considered as best reflecting
#01D '1979,, Quarterly National Accounts: A report on the sources and methods used by OECD Member Countries, -aris.
1

economic developments, and ad5ustments are made to the other estimate's,. This is the procedure adopted by the 6nited 7ingdom for e+ample. "nother alternative is to average the differences. )n "ustralia, for e+ample, where all three approaches are used, the average of the three is considered to provide the best measure of economic development. )n 1anada, where independent estimates of the e+penditure approach and the income approach are compiled, the difference is divided in two, half being subtracted from the larger total, the other being added to the smaller total. (ecause this statistical discrepancy is an indication of the reliability of the estimates, any averaging will be underta2en only when the discrepancy is considered to be below an acceptable limit. The increased use of supply8use or input8output framewor2s in the calculation of quarterly estimates merits particular mention. )n general terms, quarterly estimates of the national accounts are e+trapolations of annual series which, to one degree or another, are validated in relation to other components within an accounting framewor2. (ut five countries, Denmar2, 3rance, !etherlands, !orway and weden, use e+plicit input9output framewor2s in their quarterly compilations. These framewor2s can be quarter specific, that is to say that the structure adopted for a particular quarter reflects the characteristics of that quarter. 3or e+ample, the impact which tourism may have in :uly, "ugust and eptember is catered for in the development of the supply9use equations of the third quarter input8output framewor2. 3urther, the indications provided by the use of these quarterly input8output framewor2s can and do lead to modifications being made to components other than the normal 4inventory change4 and 4operating surplus4. &ore and more frequently the use of the supplydemand balance results in revised estimates of the output of an industry, a revised e+penditure component, etc. "lthough the increased use of input9output techniques for quarterly accounts may give the impression that e+actly the same methodology is used for quarterly and annual accounts, this is seldom if ever the case. The essential characteristic of quarterly accounts is that they must be provided on a timely basis which necessarily means before the range and detail of data used for annual compilations are available. "ll countries, to a greater or lesser e+tent, choose 4indicators4 to determine the evolution of 2ey series throughout the quarters of a year. These indicators may represent a significant part of the whole, for e+ample information on wages and salaries ta2en as an indicator for compensation of employees, or may measure a different phenomenon but one that is assumed to be highly correlated with the one of interest. 0mployment data may be a pro+y for compensation of employees; building materials a pro+y for construction output; the inde+ of industrial production for manufacturing output. The sophistication of the lin2s between pro+y and actual series varies. "t its simplest, a ten per cent change in the pro+y may be ta2en to indicate a ten

percent change in the actual. "lternatively, quite comple+ econometric relationships may be .established