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Chapter 5
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
5.1: Introduction
So far we have confined our discussion to the distributions involving
only one variable. Sometimes, in practical applications, we might come
across certain set of data, where each item of the set may comprise of the
values of two or more variables.
Suppose we have a set of 30 students in a class and we want to
measure the heights and weights of all the students. We observe that each
individual (unit) of the set assumes two values one relating to the height
and the other to the weight. Such a distribution in which each individual or
unit of the set is made up of two values is called a bivariate distribution. The
following examples will illustrate clearly the meaning of bivariate
distribution.
(i)
In a class of 60 students the series of marks obtained in two
subjects by all of them.
(ii) The series of sales revenue and advertising expenditure of two
companies in a particular year.
(iii) The series of ages of husbands and wives in a sample of selected
married couples.
Thus in a bivariate distribution, we are given a set of pairs of
observations, wherein each pair represents the values of two variables.
In a bivariate distribution, we are interested in finding a relationship
(if it exists) between the two variables under study.
The concept of correlation is a statistical tool which studies the
relationship between two variables and Correlation Analysis involves
various methods and techniques used for studying and measuring the extent
of the relationship between the two variables.
Two variables are said to be in correlation if the change in one of the
variables results in a change in the other variable.
(ii)
(iii)
V
I
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
If the points are very close to each other, a fairly good amount of
correlation can be expected between the two variables. On the
other hand if they are widely scattered a poor correlation can be
expected between them.
If the points are scattered and they reveal no upward or downward
trend as in the case of (d) then we say the variables are
uncorrelated.
If there is an upward trend rising from the lower left hand corner
and going upward to the upper right hand corner, the correlation
obtained from the graph is said to be positive. Also, if there is a
downward trend from the upper left hand corner the correlation
obtained is said to be negative.
The graphs shown above are generally termed as scatter
diagrams.
Weights (kgs)
65
66
69
55
51
63
61
75
72
64
61
52
60
70
72
Since the points are dense (close to each other) we can expect a high
degree of correlation between the series of heights and weights. Further,
since the points reveal an upward trend, the correlation is positive. Arrange
the data in increasing order of height and check that , as height increases, the
weight also increases, except for some (stray) cases..
EXERCISES
(1) A Company has just brought out an annual report in which the capital
investment and profits were given for the past few years. Find the
type of correlation (if it exists).
Capital Investment (crores)
10 16 18 24 36 48 57
Profits (lakhs)
12 14 13 18 26 38 62
5.3:
1965 1970
42
60
68
79
1975 1980
112 98
88
86
1985 1990
118 132
106 114
2
7
4
13
6
19
8
25
10
31
r=
n x y x y
(n x
)(
( x) 2 n y 2 ( y ) 2
S. No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Weight
78
86
72
82
80
86
84
89
68
71
Blood Pressure
140
160
134
144
180
176
174
178
128
132
Solution:
x
78
86
72
82
80
86
84
89
68
71
796
y
140
160
134
144
180
176
174
178
128
132
1546
x2
6084
7396
5184
6724
6400
7396
7056
7921
4624
5041
63,776
y2
19600
25600
17956
20736
32400
30976
30276
31684
16384
17424
243036
Then
r=
xy
10920
13760
9648
11808
14400
15136
14616
15842
8704
9372
1242069
11444
(1144) ( 40244)
= 0.5966
Example:3: The data given below are obtained from student records.
Calculate the rank correlation coefficient R for the data.
Subject
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Now we first arrange the data in descending order and then rank
1,2,3,---- 10 accordingly. In case of a tie, the rank of each tied value is the
mean of all positions they occupy. In x, for instance, 8.6 occupy ranks 5 and
6. So each has a rank
5+ 6
= 5 .5 ;
2
6d2
n ( n 2 1)
x
8.3
8.6
9.2
9.8
8.0
7.8
9.4
9.0
7.2
8.6
y
2300
2250
2380
2400
2000
2100
2360
2350
2000
2260
Rank of x
7
5.5
3
1
8
9
2
4
10
5.5
Rank of y
5
7
2
1
9.5
8
3
4
9.5
6
d
2
-1.5
1
0
-1.5
1
-1
0
0.5
-0.5
d2
4
2.25
1
0
2.25
1
1
0
0.25
0.25
6 (12)
10 (100 1)
=1 0.0727
= 0.9273
Note: If we are provided with only ranks without giving the values of x and
y we can still find Spearman rank difference correlation R by taking the
difference of the ranks and proceeding in the above shown manner.
10
EXERCISES
1.
2.
The top and bottom number which may appear on a die are as
follows
Top
bottom
1
5
2
6
3
4
4
3
5
1
6
2
The ranks of two sets of variables (Heights and Weights) are given
below. Calculate the Spearman rank difference correlation
coefficient R.
1
Heights 2
Weights 9
2
6
1
3
8
9
4
4
4
5
7
5
11
6
4
9
7
9.5
2
8
4
7
9
1
6
10
9.5
3
5.5: Regression
If two variables are significantly correlated, and if there is some
theoretical basis for doing so, it is possible to predict values of one variable
from the other. This observation leads to a very important concept known as
Regression Analysis.
Regression analysis, in general sense, means the estimation or
prediction of the unknown value of one variable from the known value of the
other variable. It is one of the most important statistical tools which is
extensively used in almost all sciences Natural, Social and Physical. It is
specially used in business and economics to study the relationship between
two or more variables that are related causally and for the estimation of
demand and supply graphs, cost functions, production and consumption
functions and so on.
Prediction or estimation is one of the major problems in almost all the
spheres of human activity. The estimation or prediction of future production,
consumption, prices, investments, sales, profits, income etc. are of very great
importance to business professionals. Similarly, population estimates and
population projections, GNP, Revenue and Expenditure etc. are
indispensable for economists and efficient planning of an economy.
Regression analysis was explained by M. M. Blair as follows:
Regression analysis is a mathematical measure of the average relationship
between two or more variables in terms of the original units of the data.
12
b=
n xy ( x ) ( y )
n ( x 2 ) ( x)2
a=
yb x
n
MID TERM
98
66
100
96
88
45
76
60
74
82
FINAL
90
74
98
88
80
62
78
74
86
80
Solution:
We want to predict the final exam scores from the mid term scores. So
let us designate y for the final exam scores and x for the mid term exam
scores. We open the following table for the calculations.
13
Stud
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
x
98
66
100
96
88
45
76
60
74
82
785
X2
9604
4356
10,000
9216
7744
2025
5776
3600
5476
6724
64,521
y
90
74
98
88
80
62
78
74
86
80
810
xy
8820
4884
9800
8448
7040
2790
5928
4440
6364
6560
65,071
14
This brings us to the end of this chapter. We close with some problems for
you.
EXERCISES
1. The data given below are obtained from student records. Calculate the
regression equation and compute the estimated GRE scores for GPA = 7.5,
8.5..
Subject
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Weight
78
86
72
82
80
86
84
89
68
71
15
Blood Pressure
140
160
134
144
180
176
174
178
128
132
3. A horse was subject to the test of how many minutes it takes to reach a
point from the starting point. The horse was made to carry luggage of
various weights on 10 trials.. The data collected are presented below in the
table.
Trial No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Find the regression equation between the load and the time taken to reach
the goal. Estimate the time taken for the loads of 35 Kgs , 23 Kgs, and 9
Kgs. Are the answers in agrrement with your intuitive feelings? Justify.
16
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