INDEKS PELOPOR, SERENTAK & SUSULAN

JANUARI
JANUARY

2013
JABATAN PERANGKAAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA

Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia

Indeks Pelopor, Serentak & Susulan Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes

Malaysian Economic Indicators

J A N U A R I J A N U A R Y

2 0 1 3

Intisari
Indeks

Pelopor

(IP)

yang

memantau

prestasi

Perdagangan Runcit, masing-masing mencatatkan peningkatan sebanyak 0.2%. Perubahan tahunan IS pada Januari 2013 juga meningkat kepada 3.7% daripada 3.3% pada bulan sebelumnya. Perubahan tahunan bagi IP dan IS menunjukkan peningkatan pada bulan rujukan dengan Indeks Difusi bagi kedua-dua indeks melebihi 50.0%.

ekonomi ke hadapan meningkat pada Januari 2013. IP meningkat 0.6% kepada 113.5 mata daripada 112.8 mata yang dicatat pada Disember 2012. Dua komponen utama yang menyumbang kepada peningkatan tersebut ialah Import Benar Logam Asas Berharga dan Logam Bukan Ferus Lain (0.4%) dan Import Benar Semi Konduktor (0.3%). Perubahan tahunan IP kekal 1.3% pada bulan rujukan. Indeks Serentak (IS) yang mengukur aktiviti ekonomi semasa, meningkat 0.7% pada Januari 2013.

Ini menandakan bahawa ekonomi Malaysia dijangka terus berkembang kukuh dalam tempoh terdekat.

Perubahan positif pada bulan rujukan disebabkan oleh kenaikan tiga komponen utama iaitu Kapasiti Penggunaan di Sektor Pembuatan (0.4%), Nilai Caruman Benar kepada KWSP dan Indeks Kuantiti

Highlights
The Leading Index (LI) which monitors the economic performance in advance increased in January 2013. The LI grew by 0.6% to 113.5 points from 112.8 points recorded in December 2012. Sector (0.4%), Real Contribution to EPF and Volume Index of Retail Trade which recorded 0.2% increase, respectively. The annual change of the CI in January 2013 also rose to 3.7% from 3.3% in the preceding month. The annual change of the LI and CI showed an improvement in the reference month with the level of Diffusion Index for both indexes above 50.0%. This implies that the Malaysian economy is expected to expand further in the near term. The Coincident Index (CI) which measures the current economic activity, increased 0.7% in January 2013. The positive change in the reference month was due to the increase of three main components which were Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing 1 Two main components that accounted for the increase were Real Imports of Other Basic Precious and Other Non-ferrous Metal (0.4%) and Real Imports of Semi Conductors (0.3%). The annual change of the LI remained at 1.3% in the reference month.

Jadual 1: Sumbangan Setiap Komponen terhadap Perubahan Peratusan Indeks Pelopor daripada Bulan Sebelumnya Table 1: Contribution of Each Component to the Percentage Change in the Leading Index from the Previous Month Komponen Indeks Pelopor Leading Index Components 1. Penawaran Wang Benar, M1 Real Money Supply, M1 2. Indeks Perusahaan Bursa Malaysia Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index 3. Import Benar Semi Konduktor Real Imports of Semi Conductors 4. Import Benar Logam Asas Berharga dan Logam Bukan Ferus Lain Real Imports of Other Basic Precious and Other Non-ferrous Metal 5. Bilangan Unit Kediaman yang Diluluskan Pembinaan Number of Housing Units Approved 6. Jangkaan Nilai Jualan, Pembuatan Expected Sales Value, Manufacturing 7. Bilangan Syarikat Baru Didaftar Number of New Companies Registered Perubahan Peratusan Percentage Change November 2012 November 2012 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 Disember 2012 December 2012 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 Januari 2013 January 2013 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4

-0.5 -0.4 -0.2

0.4 0.6 0.0

0.0 -0.2 0.1

-1.2

1.3

0.6

Jadual 2: Sumbangan Setiap Komponen terhadap Perubahan Peratusan Indeks Serentak daripada Bulan Sebelumnya Table 2: Contribution of Each Component to the Percentage Change in the Coincident Index from the Previous Month Komponen Indeks Serentak Coincident Index Components 1. Jumlah Guna Tenaga, Pembuatan Total Employment, Manufacturing 2. Gaji & Upah Benar, Pembuatan Real Salaries & Wages, Manufacturing 3. Indeks Pengeluaran Perindustrian Industrial Production Index 4. Nilai Caruman Benar, KWSP Real Contributions, EPF 5. Kapasiti Penggunaan, Pembuatan Capacity Utilisation, Manufacturing 6. Indeks Kuantiti Perdagangan Runcit Volume Index of Retail Trade Perubahan Peratusan Percentage Change November 2012 November 2012 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.4 Disember 2012 December 2012 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 Januari 2013 January 2013 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2

1.0

0.0

0.7

Jadual 3: Sumbangan Setiap Komponen terhadap Perubahan Peratusan Indeks Susulan daripada Bulan Sebelumnya Table 3: Contribution of Each Component to the Percentage Change in the Lagging Index from the Previous Month Komponen Indeks Susulan Lagging Index Components 1. Kos Seunit Buruh, Pembuatan Unit Labour Cost, Manufacturing 2. Bilangan Projek Pelaburan Baru Diluluskan Number of Investment Projects Approved 3. Bilangan Kenderaan Baru Didaftar Number of New Vehicles Registered 4. Eksport Gas Asli & Minyak Mentah Exports of Natural Gas & Crude Oil 5. IHP Perkhidmatan CPI for Services Perubahan Peratusan Percentage Change November 2012 November 2012 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.1 Disember 2012 December 2012 0.2 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.1 Januari 2013 January 2013 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1

0.9

0.5

0.1

Carta 1: Kadar Pertumbuhan bagi Indeks Pelopor (Terlicin) dan Kitaran Perniagaan Chart 1: Growth Rate of Leading Index (Smoothed) and Business Cycle
Peratus Per cent P 12/97 T 11/98 P 2/01 P 1/08 T 3/09

40 35 30

T 2/02

5 25 0 20

15 -5 10 5 0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Tahun Year

Carta 2A: Indeks Komposit Pelopor dan Aktiviti Ekonomi (Arah Aliran Jangka Panjang=100) Chart 2A: Leading Composite Index and Economic Activity (Long Term Trend=100)
Indeks Index P 1/92 T 1/93 P 1/98 T 1/99 P 8/00 T 2/02 P 4/04 T 11/05 P 1/08 T 3/09 P 3/12

110

105

100

95

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Tahun Year

Carta 2B: Indeks Komposit Susulan dan Aktiviti Ekonomi (Arah Aliran Jangka Panjang=100) Chart 2B: Lagging Composite Index and Economic Activity (Long Term Trend=100)
Indeks Index P 1/92 T 1/93 P 1/98 T 1/99 P 8/00 T 2/02 P 4/04 T 11/05 P 1/08 T 3/09 P 3/12

105

100

95 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Tahun Year

Nota/Note : Kawasan berlorek adalah kemelesetan kitaran perniagaan (Carta 1) dan kemelesetan kitaran pertumbuhan (Carta 2A dan 2B) di Malaysia. Shaded areas are business cycle recession (Chart 1) and growth cycle recession (Chart 2A and 2B) in Malaysia. P Puncak/Peak T Kawah/Trough

Carta 3 : Indeks Difusi Pelopor dan Kitaran Perniagaan Chart 3 : Leading Diffusion Index and Business Cycle

Peratus Per cent

P T 12/97 11/98

P 2/01

T 2/02

100

P 1/08

T 3/09

50

0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Tahun Year

Carta 4 : Indeks Difusi Serentak dan Kitaran Perniagaan Chart 4 : Coincident Diffusion Index and Business Cycle

Peratus Per cent

P T 12/97 11/98

P T 2/01 2/02

P 1/08

T 3/09

100

50

0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Tahun Year

Nota/Note : Kawasan berlorek adalah kemelesetan kitaran perniagaan di Malaysia. Shaded areas are business cycle recession in Malaysia. P Puncak/Peak T Kawah/Trough

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

2005=100

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

1993 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 1994 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 1995 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

69.5 69.9 69.4 72.0 72.3 72.2 72.8 73.2 75.2 76.0 75.8 77.8

1.4 3.2 1.2 5.6 5.6 5.0 6.0 7.5 10.5 10.6 10.4 13.0

64.3 66.5 66.2 67.3 67.6 68.4 68.8 68.9 69.6 69.9 70.6 69.5

3.5 7.8 7.2 8.0 8.5 9.4 8.6 8.9 10.9 8.9 10.5 8.0

61.1 61.7 61.9 62.2 62.4 61.4 62.6 62.4 63.2 63.2 63.1 63.2

4.8 5.4 5.1 5.8 4.9 2.2 4.4 5.0 4.7 3.6 4.1 4.5

66.7 50.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 83.3 100.0 83.3 100.0 83.3 83.3 100.0

60.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 60.0

78.1 78.8 77.2 80.7 78.7 80.4 80.0 81.9 82.8 82.6 82.1 82.7

12.5 12.8 11.2 12.1 8.8 11.4 9.9 11.8 10.1 8.8 8.3 6.3

71.2 71.1 71.5 72.6 72.7 73.5 73.4 74.4 75.1 75.1 75.7 76.3

10.6 7.0 8.0 7.9 7.5 7.4 6.6 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.3 9.8

63.3 64.1 63.7 63.8 64.3 64.0 65.5 66.3 66.5 67.0 66.9 67.1

3.6 3.8 2.9 2.7 3.2 4.3 4.6 6.2 5.1 5.9 5.9 6.2

83.3 83.3 33.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 66.7 100.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 100.0

80.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.6 82.9 82.0 83.0 83.7 84.0 84.8 84.5 85.1 84.2 85.0 84.6

4.5 5.3 6.2 2.8 6.3 4.6 6.1 3.2 2.8 1.8 3.4 2.4

76.8 77.4 77.0 77.8 79.2 79.0 79.2 79.7 80.2 80.5 81.1 81.2

8.0 8.8 7.7 7.2 9.0 7.4 7.9 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.3

67.8 66.9 67.2 68.4 68.2 69.7 69.8 69.0 69.8 69.9 70.4 70.7

7.1 4.4 5.6 7.1 6.0 9.0 6.6 4.1 5.0 4.4 5.3 5.3

66.7 66.7 16.7 66.7 83.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 83.3 50.0 66.7 33.3

100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 100.0

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

2005=100

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

1996 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 1997 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

86.1 84.8 85.0 85.9 85.2 84.9 86.0 86.4 86.2 86.8 87.7 86.4

5.5 2.3 3.7 3.6 1.8 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.2 3.2 3.2 2.1

82.3 81.9 83.5 83.5 83.8 83.6 84.6 84.6 84.8 85.4 85.1 85.7

7.0 5.7 8.5 7.3 5.8 5.8 6.9 6.1 5.7 6.1 4.9 5.6

71.5 71.5 72.3 72.5 72.5 73.7 72.7 73.8 74.0 75.2 75.1 76.1

5.4 7.0 7.5 6.0 6.4 5.7 4.2 6.9 6.1 7.6 6.6 7.7

66.7 66.7 33.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 83.3 66.7 50.0 100.0 66.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 60.0 100.0 80.0 100.0

89.0 86.5 88.4 87.1 87.0 87.4 86.5 86.4 86.4 86.0 84.3 84.7

3.3 2.0 4.1 1.4 2.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 -1.0 -3.9 -2.0

86.9 85.7 86.8 87.0 87.2 87.2 87.5 87.9 87.9 88.1 88.1 88.2

5.7 4.6 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.6 2.9

76.6 76.2 76.9 77.0 76.8 77.3 77.2 77.6 77.7 78.4 78.6 78.3

7.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.9 4.9 6.1 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.7 3.0

83.3 66.7 66.7 83.3 33.3 50.0 0.0 66.7 16.7 50.0 33.3 33.3

100.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 80.0

1998
Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 82.5 83.2 82.3 80.9 80.7 79.9 79.8 78.9 79.6 79.8 80.5 81.9 -7.3 -3.9 -6.9 -7.2 -7.3 -8.6 -7.8 -8.7 -7.8 -7.2 -4.4 -3.3 87.4 86.9 86.6 85.9 85.0 84.8 84.3 83.8 83.9 83.8 83.6 84.0 0.5 1.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.5 -2.8 -3.6 -4.7 -4.5 -4.9 -5.1 -4.8 78.6 80.5 79.6 79.0 79.4 80.1 80.2 79.7 81.2 81.4 81.3 81.3 2.6 5.6 3.4 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.8 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 0.0 50.0 33.3 33.3 50.0 66.7 66.7 60.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Pelopor (IP) Leading Index (LI)

Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG)

Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

2005=100

Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

1999 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2000 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2001 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

81.2 81.6 81.5 84.2 84.8 85.7 86.7 86.2 87.0 86.7 87.3 90.2

-1.5 -1.9 -1.0 4.1 5.2 7.3 8.7 9.2 9.2 8.6 8.4 10.1

83.6 84.6 86.2 87.7 87.7 88.7 89.3 89.5 90.2 90.1 91.1 91.9

-4.3 -2.7 -0.5 2.1 3.2 4.6 5.9 6.8 7.5 7.4 9.0 9.3

81.9 81.2 82.2 82.8 83.2 82.8 83.8 83.7 84.6 85.0 85.3 86.5

4.2 0.9 3.3 4.8 4.8 3.4 4.5 5.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 6.4

66.7 83.3 83.3 100.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 83.3 100.0 66.7 100.0 83.3

20.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 100.0

88.0 90.0 90.2 90.5 90.7 90.5 90.9 91.8 90.6 90.7 90.5 90.1

8.3 10.3 10.7 7.5 7.0 5.6 4.8 6.5 4.2 4.6 3.7 -0.1

92.0 93.2 93.3 93.1 94.8 95.8 95.4 96.5 96.6 96.2 97.0 96.4

10.0 10.3 8.3 6.2 8.1 8.0 6.8 7.8 7.1 6.8 6.4 4.9

85.3 86.6 86.7 86.5 86.6 86.5 87.5 87.3 87.9 88.2 88.4 88.6

4.2 6.6 5.4 4.5 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 2.5

83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 100.0 50.0 50.0 66.7 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 60.0

89.8 90.1 88.4 87.8 87.8 88.3 88.2 88.0 88.4 89.0 89.9 89.2

2.1 0.2 -2.0 -3.0 -3.2 -2.4 -2.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 -1.0

96.7 97.2 97.2 95.9 95.1 94.2 94.0 94.0 93.6 94.0 93.3 92.2

5.2 4.2 4.1 3.0 0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.6 -3.1 -2.2 -3.8 -4.3

88.9 90.0 89.5 89.7 90.5 88.5 89.5 89.3 89.2 88.9 88.8 88.9

4.1 4.0 3.3 3.7 4.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.3

33.3 33.3 33.3 16.7 33.3 16.7 50.0 33.3 50.0 83.3 100.0 50.0

80.0 80.0 60.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 0.0

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Pelopor (IP) Leading Index (LI)

2005=100

Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

2002 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2003 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2004 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

90.4 89.9 90.9 91.7 91.5 91.2 91.8 91.9 91.4 91.8 91.9 88.9

0.6 -0.3 2.8 4.5 4.1 3.3 4.1 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.3 -0.3

93.0 91.3 92.6 92.7 92.9 94.4 94.4 94.5 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.1

-3.9 -6.0 -4.7 -3.3 -2.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.9

88.6 90.2 90.8 92.5 90.9 91.0 92.4 93.0 92.7 93.5 92.2 90.9

-0.3 0.3 1.5 3.1 0.4 2.8 3.2 4.2 3.9 5.1 3.9 2.3

66.7 66.7 100.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 50.0 100.0 66.7 83.3 50.0 16.7

60.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 20.0

91.0 91.4 90.8 91.5 92.0 92.1 92.8 92.2 94.0 94.8 94.5 95.7

0.7 1.6 0.0 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.4 2.8 3.4 2.8 7.6

94.7 94.0 94.5 95.1 94.9 95.3 96.1 95.9 96.2 96.3 96.0 97.7

1.9 2.9 2.0 2.6 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.2 5.0

94.2 94.2 93.0 93.5 93.8 92.8 94.1 93.5 94.3 94.2 94.3 94.6

6.3 4.4 2.4 1.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 0.5 1.8 0.7 2.3 4.1

42.9 42.9 42.9 57.1 71.4 100.0 71.4 57.1 85.7 71.4 42.9 85.7

66.7 83.3 83.3 100.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 83.3 100.0 83.3 66.7 100.0

95.7 96.7 98.7 97.8 97.5 98.5 98.0 98.0 98.5 97.5 97.5 98.8

5.2 5.8 8.6 7.0 5.9 7.0 5.6 6.3 4.8 2.8 3.2 3.2

97.6 97.9 98.4 99.2 98.1 98.9 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.5 97.5 99.4

3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.4 3.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.7

95.2 96.1 94.9 96.1 96.0 95.7 96.2 96.6 97.3 97.6 98.3 98.0

1.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 3.1 2.3 3.2 3.1 3.6 4.2 3.5

57.1 71.4 100.0 71.4 85.7 85.7 85.7 57.1 28.6 28.6 42.9 57.1

66.7 100.0 83.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 66.7 50.0 50.0 33.3 50.0

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Tempoh Period Indeks Pelopor (IP) Leading Index (LI) Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Serentak Indeks Pelopor (IP) (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

2005=100

Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

2005 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2006 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2007 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

98.6 99.8 99.5 99.4 99.9 99.7 100.4 100.3 100.9 101.0 99.3 101.2

3.0 3.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.6 1.9 2.5

99.4 98.9 100.1 99.7 99.0 99.9 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.9 100.8 101.1

1.8 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.3 1.7

97.5 99.0 98.0 99.5 99.9 100.0 99.5 100.6 101.3 101.5 101.4 101.8

2.4 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.1 3.9

71.4 85.7 85.7 71.4 71.4 57.1 57.1 57.1 85.7 71.4 42.9 85.7

66.7 66.7 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 50.0 50.0 33.3 66.7 100.0 66.7

100.5 102.1 100.7 100.7 101.6 102.3 101.7 103.2 102.4 102.9 104.3 104.2

2.0 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.9 5.0 2.9

101.3 102.0 102.9 103.1 103.6 104.6 105.2 105.9 106.1 105.9 108.1 107.2

1.9 3.2 2.9 3.4 4.6 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.0 7.3 6.0

101.5 102.3 102.7 102.4 103.2 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.2

4.1 3.3 4.8 2.9 3.3 2.1 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.4

42.9 71.4 14.3 42.9 85.7 57.1 57.1 71.4 71.4 57.1 71.4 57.1

83.3 66.7 50.0 66.7 50.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 66.7 83.3 100.0 83.3

105.3 105.6 106.3 105.6 106.7 106.1 107.1 106.6 106.6 108.0 107.3 108.6

4.8 3.4 5.6 4.9 5.0 3.7 5.4 3.3 4.1 5.0 2.9 4.3

106.8 105.9 109.7 109.1 109.5 108.8 109.1 109.4 109.6 109.5 110.4 111.5

5.4 3.8 6.6 5.8 5.7 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.2 4.1

104.1 104.1 103.4 105.1 105.3 106.3 106.3 106.7 106.7 108.0 108.2 108.4

2.6 1.8 0.7 2.7 2.1 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.4 4.7 4.5 5.1

100.0 85.7 100.0 71.4 71.4 57.1 57.1 57.1 42.9 85.7 57.1 85.7

83.3 50.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 66.7 100.0 66.7 66.7 66.7 100.0

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 Tahunan 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

2005=100

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

2008 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2009 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2010 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec.

108.6 108.0 107.7 107.9 107.4 106.2 105.4 104.4 105.4 104.1 103.2 101.3

3.1 2.3 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -3.6 -3.9 -6.8

113.2 112.0 111.3 111.9 110.8 109.8 110.3 106.4 106.6 105.7 104.2 101.3

5.9 5.7 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.1 -2.8 -2.7 -3.5 -5.6 -9.2

109.5 109.7 109.0 111.8 112.3 113.4 113.3 113.1 115.1 113.6 115.4 115.2

5.2 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.0 7.8 5.2 6.6 6.2

71.4 42.9 57.1 28.6 28.6 14.3 14.3 0.0 28.6 0.0 0.0 14.3

100.0 83.3 66.7 83.3 50.0 33.3 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7 0.0 0.0

101.3 101.8 102.2 104.3 104.5 105.5 106.5 106.3 105.9 106.5 108.1 108.0

-6.7 -5.7 -5.1 -3.3 -2.7 -0.6 1.0 1.8 0.4 2.3 4.7 6.6

98.8 100.6 98.5 99.6 101.0 101.9 102.8 103.5 103.5 105.1 105.3 105.2

-12.7 -10.2 -11.5 -11.0 -8.8 -7.2 -6.8 -2.7 -2.9 -0.6 1.0 3.8

113.7 114.0 114.0 111.7 113.1 113.3 113.8 114.5 114.4 115.2 115.5 116.7

3.8 3.9 4.6 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.2 -0.6 1.4 0.1 1.3

42.9 42.9 28.6 71.4 71.4 100.0 85.7 100.0 85.7 100.0 100.0 85.7

16.7 16.7 0.0 16.7 16.7 83.3 66.7 83.3 83.3 83.3 100.0 66.7

107.7 108.3 110.1 108.7 108.8 108.9 108.8 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.7 111.5

6.3 6.4 7.7 4.2 4.1 3.2 2.2 3.3 3.8 3.3 2.4 3.2

105.6 105.9 107.7 107.7 108.4 108.2 107.8 108.2 109.0 109.9 110.0 110.0

6.9 5.3 9.3 8.1 7.3 6.2 4.9 4.5 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.6

117.8 118.5 119.4 119.3 119.2 120.2 119.2 120.5 119.9 119.4 120.2 120.8

3.6 3.9 4.7 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.7 5.2 4.8 3.6 4.1 3.5

57.1 57.1 85.7 57.1 57.1 42.9 71.4 71.4 57.1 71.4 71.4 85.7

100.0 83.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 66.7 83.3 50.0 83.3 66.7 83.3

10

Jadual 4 : Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi (samb.) Table 4 : Composite Index and Diffusion Index (contd)
Indeks Komposit Composite Index Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Susulan (ISL) Coincident Index (CI) Lagging Index (LG) Indeks Difusi Diffusion Index Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Serentak (IS) Leading Index (LI) Coincident Index (CI)

Tempoh Period

Indeks Pelopor (IP) Leading Index (LI)

2005=100

Perubahan Perubahan Perubahan Tahunan Tahunan Tahunan 2005=100 2005=100 Annual Change Annual Change Annual Change
(%) (%) (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

Peratus (%) Per cent (%)

2011 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2012 Jan./Jan. Feb./Feb. Mac/Mar. Apr./Apr. Mei/May Jun/June Jul./July Ogo./Aug. Sep./Sep. Okt./Oct. Nov./Nov. Dis./Dec. 2013 Jan./Jan.

111.4 110.8 110.7 110.5 110.7 111.0 110.9 110.9 111.3 112.5 111.5 111.4

3.4 2.3 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.3 2.3 0.7 -0.1

112.1 110.2 112.2 111.5 111.0 112.0 113.4 111.5 111.5 110.9 111.7 112.0

6.2 4.1 4.2 3.5 2.4 3.5 5.2 3.0 2.3 0.9 1.5 1.8

123.4 121.7 123.0 125.8 124.5 125.8 125.9 126.5 125.6 127.2 127.9 128.4

4.8 2.7 3.0 5.4 4.4 4.7 5.6 5.0 4.8 6.5 6.4 6.3

85.7 71.4 57.1 42.9 42.9 28.6 57.1 42.9 57.1 71.4 42.9 42.9

100.0 83.3 100.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 33.3 33.3 50.0 50.0

112.0 114.1 113.1 113.0 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.9 112.3 112.6 111.3 112.8

0.5 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.1 -0.2 1.3

112.3 115.3 115.3 114.7 115.0 114.5 114.2 114.0 114.8 114.6 115.7 115.7

0.2 4.6 2.8 2.9 3.6 2.2 0.7 2.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.3

128.4 128.3 130.1 131.0 130.4 130.3 128.8 130.8 129.9 130.6 131.8 132.5

4.1 5.4 5.8 4.1 4.7 3.6 2.3 3.4 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.2

57.1 85.7 71.4 71.4 85.7 71.4 71.4 28.6 28.6 42.9 28.6 42.9

83.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 66.7 83.3

113.5

1.3

116.5

3.7

132.6

3.3

57.1

100.0

11

NOTA KETERANGAN
1.0 PENGENALAN 1.1 Penerbitan Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia ini memberikan maklumat ekonomi semasa yang bertujuan untuk memantau kedudukan ekonomi Negara. Ia terdiri daripada Indeks Pelopor, Serentak dan Susulan bagi Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi yang diterbitkan secara bulanan. Oleh kerana penerbitan Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia ini disusun semula, siri sebelumnya turut disemak berasaskan siri komponen baru.

1.2

2.0 OBJEKTIF Objektif utama Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia adalah untuk memantau prestasi ekonomi Malaysia secara bulanan dan membantu penggubal dasar, pelabur, penyelidik serta masyarakat umum untuk menilai prestasi ekonomi.

3.0 SUMBER DATA Data bagi penyediaan Indeks Komposit dan Indeks Difusi diperoleh daripada Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia serta agensi berikut: i. ii. iii. iii. iv. Kementerian Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan (KPKT); Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM); Jabatan Pengangkutan Jalan (JPJ); Lembaga Kemajuan Perindustrian Malaysia (MIDA) dan Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP).

4.0 METODOLOGI 4.1 Pemilihan setiap komponen bagi Indeks Komposit adalah mengikut garis panduan yang terkandung dalam Business Cycle Indicators Handbook1 iaitu: i. Keakuran terhadap kitaran perniagaan Data siri yang dipilih perlu seiring dengan kitaran perniagaan. Konsisten terhadap fungsi indeks Data siri perlu sentiasa berfungsi secara konsisten sama ada sebagai indeks pelopor, serentak atau susulan. Signifikan terhadap ekonomi Data siri yang dipilih perlu menyumbang secara signifikan kepada aktiviti ekonomi. Kecukupan statistik Data mestilah dikumpul dan diproses dengan menggunakan kaedah statistik yang diperaku. Kelicinan Pergerakan data siri masa bulan ke bulan mestilah licin dan tidak banyak elemen ketidaktentuan. Ketepatan Komponen yang terpilih mestilah mempunyai data siri yang bertepatan masa, tepat dan terkini untuk menghasilkan penunjuk yang berguna kepada analisis semasa.

ii.

iii.

iv.

v.

vi.

13

McGuckin R.H. et al. (2000) Business Cycle Indicators Handbook. The Conference Board, United States.

NOTA KETERANGAN
4.2 4.3 Data siri masa yang terpilih perlu menjalani ujian pelarasan musim bagi mengeluarkan pengaruh musim terhadap data siri tersebut. Penyusunan semula Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia telah membawa kepada perubahan komponen indeks komposit seperti di bawah: Bil. Indeks Pelopor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Bil. Indeks Serentak 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Bil. Indeks Susulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 14 Kadar Faedah Wang Panggilan 7-hari Lebihan Pinjaman Benar Sektor Swasta Bilangan Projek Pelaburan Diluluskan Bilangan Majikan Gagal Mencarum KWSP (Songsang) Bilangan Kenderaan Baru Didaftar Kos Seunit Buruh, Pembuatan Eksport Gas Asli & Minyak Mentah IHP Perkhidmatan Dikeluarkan Dikeluarkan Dikekalkan Dikeluarkan Dikekalkan Baru Baru Baru Indeks Pengeluaran Perindustrian Import Kasar Benar Gaji & Upah Benar, Pembuatan Jumlah Guna Tenaga, Pembuatan Nilai Jualan Benar, Pembuatan Nilai Caruman Benar, KWSP Kapasiti Penggunaan, Pembuatan Indeks Kuantiti Perdagangan Runcit Komponen Dikekalkan Dikeluarkan Dikekalkan Dikekalkan Dikeluarkan Dikekalkan Baru Baru Status Penawaran Wang Benar, M1 Indeks Perusahaan Bursa Malaysia Jumlah Dagangan Benar: Lapan Negara Utama IHP Perkhidmatan, Kadar Pertumbuhan (Songsang) Indeks Harga Bahan Perindustrian, Kadar Pertumbuhan Nisbah Harga terhadap Kos Seunit Buruh, Pembuatan Bilangan Unit Kediaman yang Diluluskan Pembinaan Bilangan Syarikat Baru Didaftar Import Benar Semi Konduktor Import Benar Logam Asas Berharga dan Logam Bukan Ferus Lain Jangkaan Nilai Jualan, Pembuatan Komponen Dikekalkan Dikekalkan Dikeluarkan Dikeluarkan Dikeluarkan Dikeluarkan Dikekalkan Dikekalkan Baru Baru Baru Status Komponen Status

NOTA KETERANGAN
5.0 KONSEP DAN DEFINISI 5.1 Indeks Komposit Indeks Komposit merupakan gabungan komponen individu yang digunakan untuk mengukur gelagat kitaran ekonomi. Kebaikan Indeks Komposit berbanding analisis komponen individu ialah ianya dapat mengeluarkan pengaruh ketidakstabilan sesuatu komponen. Pada umumnya, Indeks Komposit lebih berupaya menghasilkan isyarat titik pusing yang jelas dan konsisten berbanding penunjuk secara individu. Terdapat tiga jenis Indeks Komposit dalam Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia iaitu indeks pelopor, serentak dan susulan. i. Indeks Pelopor (IP) Indeks Pelopor merupakan ukuran jangkaan keseluruhan aktiviti ekonomi untuk masa hadapan. Indeks ini memberitahu kita ke mana arah tuju ekonomi. Indeks Serentak (IS) Indeks Serentak merupakan ukuran komprehensif terhadap prestasi keseluruhan ekonomi semasa. Indeks Susulan (ISL) Indeks Susulan berfungsi sebagai pengesah kepada isyarat Indeks Pelopor dan Indeks Serentak.

ii.

iii.

5.2

Indeks Difusi Indeks Difusi adalah pelengkap kepada Indeks Komposit. Ia digunakan untuk membantu membuat keputusan terutamanya dalam penentuan titik pusing kitaran ekonomi. Nilai 100 bagi Indeks Difusi menunjukkan semua komponen meningkat dan nilai sifar bermaksud semua komponen mengalami penurunan. Sebagai contoh, nilai Indeks Difusi pada 85 mata bagi IP menunjukkan bahawa 85 peratus komponen IP meningkat pada bulan berkenaan.

15

NOTA KETERANGAN
5.3 Kitaran Perniagaan Kitaran perniagaan merujuk kepada turun naik aktiviti ekonomi agregat seperti pengeluaran, pendapatan, guna tenaga, perdagangan dan sebagainya. Terdapat 2 fasa utama kitaran perniagaan iaitu fasa pengembangan dan kemelesetan. Peningkatan dari titik kawah ke puncak ditakrifkan sebagai fasa pengembangan manakala penurunan dari titik puncak ke kawah ditakrifkan sebagai fasa kemelesetan. Fasa kemelesetan kitaran perniagaan ditentukan oleh kejatuhan Indeks Komposit Serentak sekurang-kurangnya enam bulan secara berturut-turut. Sebagai contoh, Jadual 1 menunjukkan puncak bagi kitaran kelima Indeks Serentak pada Januari 2008 menandakan bermulanya fasa kemelesetan ekonomi dan kawah pada Mac 2009 menandakan berakhirnya fasa kemelesetan atau bermulanya fasa pengembangan ekonomi. Jadual 1: Tempoh Rujukan Kitaran Perniagaan Malaysia
Kitaran Rujukan Bilangan Kawah Kitaran Pertama Kitaran Kedua Kitaran Ketiga Kitaran Keempat Kitaran Kelima Feb-75 Jan-86 Nov-98 Feb-02 Purata Puncak Jul-74 Jan-85 Dis-97 Feb-01 Jan-08 Kawah Pengembangan Penguncupan Feb-75 Jan-86 Nov-98 Feb-02 Mac-09 119 143 27 71 90 7 12 11 12 14 11 Kitaran Penuh 131 154 39 85 101 Kitaran (bulan)

5.4

Kitaran Pertumbuhan Kitaran pertumbuhan ialah turun naik aktiviti ekonomi agregat di sepanjang arah aliran jangka panjangnya. Arah aliran jangka panjang aktiviti ekonomi agregat dianggarkan menggunakan kaedah Hodrick Prescott Filter terhadap Indeks Serentak. Kitaran pertumbuhan dihasilkan melalui penyisihan indeks daripada arah aliran jangka panjangnya. Puncak kitaran pertumbuhan bermaksud berakhirnya fasa kenaikan dan bermulanya fasa penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara kawah bagi kitaran pertumbuhan menunjukkan berakhirnya fasa penurunan atau bermulanya fasa kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sebagai contoh, Jadual 2 menunjukkan titik puncak bagi kitaran kesembilan pada bulan April 2004 menandakan bahawa ekonomi telah memasuki fasa pertumbuhan perlahan dan kawah bagi kitaran pertumbuhan pada November 2005 menunjukkan bermulanya fasa pertumbuhan tinggi.

16

NOTA KETERANGAN

Jadual 2: Tempoh Rujukan Kitaran Pertumbuhan Malaysia

Kitaran Rujukan Kawah Kitaran Pertama Kitaran Kedua Kitaran Ketiga Kitaran Keempat Kitaran Kelima Kitaran Keenam Kitaran Ketujuh Kitaran Kelapan Kitaran Kesembilan Kitaran Kesepuluh Kitaran Kesebelas Feb-73 Mac-75 Jul-77 Nov-82 Jan-87 Apr-90 Jan-93 Jan-99 Feb-02 Nov-05 Mac-09 Purata Puncak Mei-74 Nov-76 Jul-81 Jan-85 Okt-88 Jan-92 Jan-98 Ogo-00 Apr-04 Jan-08 Mac-12 Kawah Mac-75 Jul-77 Nov-82 Jan-87 Apr-90 Jan-93 Jan-99 Feb-02 Nov-05 Mac-09 Menaik 15 20 48 26 21 21 60 19 26 26 36 29 Kitaran (bulan) Menurun 10 8 16 24 18 12 12 18 19 14 15 Kitaran Penuh 25 28 64 50 39 33 72 37 45 40 43

Bilangan

6.0 KEKANGAN PENUNJUK EKONOMI MALAYSIA Terdapat beberapa kekangan Penunjuk Ekonomi Malaysia yang perlu diambil perhatian oleh pengguna: i. ii. Indeks Pelopor tidak dapat mengukur atau meramal perubahan magnitud dalam aktiviti ekonomi. Indeks ini hanya menunjukkan arah tuju ekonomi di masa hadapan. Indeks Serentak tidak menggambarkan tahap situasi ekonomi semasa. Justeru itu, ia tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai aras Keluaran Dalam Negeri Kasar (KDNK) semasa bulanan.

iii. Sistem penunjuk ekonomi tidak berupaya untuk mengambilkira kejutan pengaruh dalaman atau/dan luaran kepada ekonomi.

17

EXPLANATORY NOTES
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The publication of Malaysian Economic Indicators presents current economic information with the purpose of monitoring the economic situation of the country. It consists of Leading, Coincident and Lagging for Composite and Diffusion Indexes which published on the monthly basis. Since this is a recompiling publication of Malaysian Economic Indicators, the past series were also revised using the new series of components.

1.2

2.0 OBJECTIVES The main objectives of Malaysian Economic Indicators are to monitor Malaysian economic performance on a monthly basis and to assists the policy makers, investors, researchers as well as the public to assess the economic performance.

3.0 SOURCES OF DATA Data for the compilation of Composite and Diffusion Indexes is obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the following agencies: i. ii. iii. iv. v. Ministry of Housing and Local Government (MHLG); Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM); Road Transport Department (RTD); Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) and Employees Provident Fund (EPF).

4.0 METHODOLOGY 4.1 Selection of each component for the Composite Index is based on the guideline in the Business Cycle Indicators Handbook1 namely: i. ii. Conformity to business cycle The selected data series must conform to the business cycle. Consistent timing The data series must exhibit a consistent timing pattern over time as leading, coincident or lagging indexes. Economic significance The selected data series must significantly contribute to the economy. Statistical adequacy Data must be collected and processed in a statistically reliable manner. Smoothness The month to month movements of the data series must not be too erratic. Promptness The selected components must be timely, accurate and updated to contribute to the current analysis.

iii.

iv. v.

vi.

18

McGuckin R.H. et al. (2000) Business Cycle Indicators Handbook. The Conference Board, United States.

EXPLANATORY NOTES
4.2 4.3 The selected time series data are seasonally adjusted to remove the seasonal influences of the data series. The recompilation of Malaysian Economic Indicators has resulted to the change of the composite index components as shown below: No. Leading Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 No. Coincident Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 No. Lagging Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19 7-day Call Money, Rate Real Excess Lending to Private Sector Number of Investment Projects Approved Number of Defaulters, EPF (Inverted) Number of New Vehicles Registered Unit Labour Cost, Manufacturing Exports of Natural Gas & Crude Oil CPI for Services Excluded Excluded Maintained Excluded Maintained New New New Industrial Production Index Real Gross Imports Real Salaries & Wages, Manufacturing Total Employment, Manufacturing Real Sales, Manufacturing Real Contributions, EPF Capasity Utilisation, Manufacturing Volume Index of Retail Trade Components Maintained Excluded Maintained Maintained Excluded Maintained New New Remarks Real Money Supply, M1 Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index Real Total Trade: Eight Major Trading Partners CPI for Services, Growth Rate (Inverted) Industrial Material Price Index, Growth Rate Ratio of Price to Unit Labour Cost, Manufacturing Number of Housing Units Approved Number of New Companies Registered Real Imports of Semi Conductors Real Imports of Other Basic Precious and Other Non-ferrous Metal Expected Sales Value, Manufacturing Components Maintained Maintained Excluded Excluded Excluded Excluded Maintained Maintained New New New Remarks Components Remarks

EXPLANATORY NOTES

5.0 CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 5.1 Composite Index The Composite Index is the combination of individual indicators which measures the economic cycles behaviour. The advantage of Composite Index compared to individual analysis is the tendency to smooth out some of the volatility of the series. The Composite Index is generally more reliable in generating clear and consistent turning points than individual indicators. There are three types of Composite Index in the Malaysian Economic Indicators, i.e. leading, coincident and lagging indexes. i. Leading Index (LI) The Leading Index measures anticipations of the overall economic activity in the months ahead. The index tells us where the economy is going. Coincident Index (CI) The Coincident Index is a comprehensive measure of the overall current economic performance. Lagging Index (LG) The Lagging Index is to validate the signal of the Leading and Coincident Indexes.

ii.

iii. 5.2

Diffusion Index The Diffusion Index is a complement to the Composite Index. It is used to assist in making a decision especially in determining turning point of economic cycle. The value of 100 for Diffusion Index implies that all components are increasing and the value of zero shows that all components are decreasing. For example, the Diffusion Index of 85 points for the LI shows that 85 per cent of LI components are increasing for that particular month.

20

EXPLANATORY NOTES

5.3

Business Cycle Business cycle is a fluctuation of the aggregated economic activity such as production, income, employment, trade and etc. There are two main phases of business cycle namely expansion and recession phases. The upward movement from trough to peak is defined as expansion phase meanwhile the downward movement from peak to trough is classified as recession phase. The phase of business cycle recession is determined by declining of the Coincident Composite Index for at least six months successively. For example, Table 1 shows that the peak of the fifth cycle of Coincident Index in January 2008 indicates the beginning of business cycle recession and the trough in March 2009 indicates the end of recession phase or the beginning of economic expansion phase.

Table 1: Malaysian Business Cycles Reference Periods

Reference Cycles Number Trough First Cycle Second Cycle Third Cycle Fourth Cycle Fifth Cycle Feb-75 Jan-86 Nov-98 Feb-02 Average Peak Jul-74 Jan-85 Dec-97 Feb-01 Jan-08 Trough Feb-75 Jan-86 Nov-98 Feb-02 Mar-09 Expansion 119 143 27 71 90 Contraction 7 12 11 12 14 11 Full Cycle 131 154 39 85 101 Cycles (month)

5.4

Growth Cycle The growth cycle is a fluctuation of the aggregated economic activity along its long term trend. The long term trend of the aggregated economic activity is estimated using the Hodrick Prescott Filter method on the Coincident Index. The growth cycle is generated through the deviation of the index from its long term trend. The peak of growth cycle reflects the end of the upswing and the beginning of downswing phase of economic growth. Meanwhile trough for growth cycle indicates the end of downswing or the beginning of upswing phase of economic growth. For example, Table 2 shows that the peak point of the ninth cycle in April 2004 reflects that economy is entering the slow growth phase and the trough for growth cycle in November 2005 shows the beginning of a higher growth phase.

21

EXPLANATORY NOTES
Table 2: Malaysian Growth Cycles Reference Periods
Reference Cycles Trough First Cycle Second Cycle Third Cycle Fourth Cycle Fifth Cycle Sixth Cycle Seventh Cycle Eighth Cycle Nineth Cycle Tenth Cycle Eleventh Cycle Feb-73 Mar-75 Jul-77 Nov-82 Jan-87 Apr-90 Jan-93 Jan-99 Feb-02 Nov-05 Mar-09 Average Peak May-74 Nov-76 Jul-81 Jan-85 Oct-88 Jan-92 Jan-98 Aug-00 Apr-04 Jan-08 Mar-12 Trough Mar-75 Jul-77 Nov-82 Jan-87 Apr-90 Jan-93 Jan-99 Feb-02 Nov-05 Mar-09 Upswing 15 20 48 26 21 21 60 19 26 26 36 29 Cycles (month) Downswing 10 8 16 24 18 12 12 18 19 14 15 Full Cycle 25 28 64 50 39 33 72 37 45 40 43

Number

6.0 LIMITATION OF MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS There are some limitations of the Malaysian Economic Indicators that users should be aware of: i. ii. The Leading Index is unable to measure or predict the magnitude of any changes of economic activity. The index shows the direction of the economy in advance. The Coincident Index does not represent the level of the current economic situation. Thus it should not be interpreted as the level of current monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

iii. The economic indicators unable to take into account the internal or/and external shock to the economy.

22

JADUAL TARIKH PENGELUARAN PENERBITAN PENUNJUK EKONOMI MALAYSIA INDEKS PELOPOR, SERENTAK & SUSULAN, 2013
SCHEDULE OF RELEASE DATES FOR PUBLICATION OF MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS LEADING, COINCIDENT & LAGGING INDEXES, 2013

Bulan Rujukan Reference Month Januari January Februari February Mac March April April Mei May Jun June Julai July Ogos August September September Oktober October November November Disember December Nota : TLD Tidak lewat daripada Note : NLT Not later than

Tarikh Penerbitan Publication Date TLD 23 Mac 2013 NLT 23 March 2013 TLD 25 April 2013 NLT 25 April 2013 TLD 24 Mei 2013 NLT 24 May 2013 TLD 22 Jun 2013 NLT 22 June 2013 TLD 25 Julai 2013 NLT 25 July 2013 TLD 24 Ogos 2013 NLT 24 August 2013 TLD 25 September 2013 NLT 25 September 2013 TLD 25 Oktober 2013 NLT 25 October 2013 TLD 23 November 2013 NLT 23 November 2013 TLD 25 Disember 2013 NLT 25 December 2013 TLD 25 Januari 2014 NLT 25 January 2014 TLD 22 Februari 2014 NLT 22 February 2014

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