Port Said University Faculty of Engineering

Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Department

PROBABILITIES

Post Graduate Course: STATISTICS Course Code: Supervisor: Professor Dr. Yousef Boghdadi

31th MAR. 2013

Prepared By:

Mohamed Elmaadawy
Design engineer N.A.M.E. B.Sc. Port Said Shipyard Suez Canal Authority

STATISTICS

PROBABILITIES

Code: 000

Example No. 1. If a fair coin is flipped three times find the following. 1- Sample space. 2- Writ the following probabilities. a. Probability (A) of having head in the first flip. b. Probability (B) of having at least one head. c. Probability (C) of having tail in the first flip (C1) and head in the third flip (C2). d. Probability of having head in the first flip and at least one head ( ). 3- Find the probability of the following ad write their elements. a. AC. b. AC BC Solution: 1- Sample space S

S ={(H,H,H),(H,H,T),(H,T,H),(H,T,T),(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H),(T,T,T)} Number of sample space elements n(S) = 2 2 2 = 23 = 8

Preparedby:M.Elmaadawy

STATISTICS

PROBABILITIES

Code: 000

2-a. Probability (A) of having head in the first flip. A={(H,H,H),(H,H,T),(H,T,H),(H,T,T)} n(A) =4 P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 4/8 = 0.5 2-b. Probability (B) of having at least one head. B={(H,H,H),(H,H,T),(H,T,H),(H,T,T),(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H)} P(B) = n(B) / n(S) = 7/8 = 0.875.

n(B) =7

2-c. Probability (C) of having tail in the first flip and head in the third flip. C={(T,H,H), (T,T,H)} (graphically) n(C) =2 P(C) = n(C) / n(S) = 2/8 = 0.25. If we consider the other way of solution C1={(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H),(T,T,T)} n(C1) =4 P(C1) = n(C1) / n(S) = 4/8 = 0.5 C2={(H,H,H),(H,T,H),(T,H,H),(T,T,H)} n(C1) =4 P(C2) = n(C2) / n(S) = 4/8 = 0.5 P(C) = P(C1) P(C2) = P(C1) X P(C2) = 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25 2-d. Probability of having head in the first flip and at least one head ( = {(H,H,H), (H,H,T), (H,T,H), (H,T,T)} n( ) =4 P( = P(A) X P(B) = 3-a. AC AC = {(H,H,H), (H,H,T), (H,T,H), (H,T,T), (T,H,H), (T,T,H)}; AC = P(A) + P(C) P ( AC ) = 0.5 + 0.25 0 = 0.75. 3-b. AC BC AC = {(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H),(T,T,T)} BC = {(T,T,T)} n(AC BC) = 4 n(AC)=4 n(BC)=1 P(AC) = 4/8 = 0.5 = 1 P (A) P(BC) = 1/8 = 0.125 = 1 P (B) n(AC)=6 P(AC) =6/8=0.75 ). ) = 4/8 = 0.5

AC BC = {(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H),(T,T,T)} {(T,T,T)} = {(T,H,H),(T,H,T),(T,T,H),(T,T,T)} ; P(AC BC) = 4/8 = 0.5 P(AC BC) = P(AC) + P(BC) P(AC BC) C ) = 0.5 + 0.125 0.125 = 0.5

Preparedby:M.Elmaadawy