INTRODUCTION:

DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

Say an experiment is conducted N times, with the outcome of any trial being unaffected by the outcome of any other. On each occasion it is noted whether a certain event A happens, and the total number of times A occurred kept count of. Then the probability of the event A is defined as: This is known as the "historical" definition of probability (note that several other definitions are possible). The numerical value of any probability lies between zero (it never happens) and one (it always happens).

The box contains two circles (marked A and B, representing two events), and four numbered areas.

The probability of A is Pr(A), the total area inside circle A, equal to area 1 plus area 2. The probability of B is Pr(B), the total area inside circle B, equal to area 3 plus area 2. The probability Pr(A and B) is the area in both A and B, i.e. area 2. The probability Pr(A or B) is the area which appears in circle A, or circle B, or both, and so equals areas 1 plus 2 plus 3. Area 4 is everything outside the two circles, and so represents the probability Pr(not (A or B)). The total area in the box represents everything which can happen, and is called the sample space.

Definition of Probability

ADDING PROBABILITIES

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Probabilities may be added according to the following rule:

Pr(A or B)= Pr(A) + Pr (B) - Pr (A and B)

The way in which probabilities of events combine may be written as:

Pr (A and B) = Pr (A given B) Pr (B) Pr (A and B) = Pr (B given A) Pr (A)

If there is no overlap between the the events, i.e. Pr(A and B) = 0, then the events are said to be mutually exclusive. Also, we have Pr(not A) = 1 - Pr(A).

If Pr(A given B) = Pr(A), then the events A and B are said to be independent.

THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY demonstration

DRUG TRIALS STRONG STUFF: HOW EFFECTIVE IS VIAGRA?

Statistics tell us that it is likely more effective that its advertising claims it to be. VIAGRA has shown improvement in erectile function in 4 out of 5 men compared with 1 out of 4 for sugar tablets. -Ad, CondeNast Traveler, June 2000 What do these statistics mean about the effectiveness of VIAGRA? (80-25=55%?) Actually, 55% is considerably lower than the true success rate of Viagra. A recent magazine ad for Viagra stated that 80% of those in an experiment who used Viagra reported improvement, as compared to 25% among those who had the placebo. The inclination is to subtract 25 from 80, and thus to estimate Viagra's true effectiveness as 55%. Such a calculation, however, is harsh on Viagra. Among the 80% of Viagra users who reported improvement, some physically benefited while the remainder improved for other reasons. If Q is the fraction of users directly helped by the drug, then Q could be approximated from the linear equation: Q + .25(1-Q) = .8 The idea here is that, like the users of the placebo, 25% of those who used Viagra but did not physically benefit from it nonetheless reported improvements. 25% of 20% = 5% 5% of users that reported Viagra was effective is the result of placebo effect. Hence 75% of Q plus 25% response as placebo effect equals the 80% that believed they were helped by Viagra. Q = .7333 ~= 73% The 80% of Viagra patients who reported gains included the 73% with physical benefits and about 1/4 of the remaining 27% without such benefits. Note that 73% is considerably higher than the 55% success rate that many readers might have inferred from subtracting 25% from 80%. Thus, Viagra users essentially fall into three categories: 73% who benefit physically 7% who benefit psychologically 20% who do not benefit