:

Financial Price Fisk and Firm Value

(I

) ( :
:
(1
)(exchange rate )(interest rate - )(Commodity Price

" " .
.


.

).(5

) (Dollar ) (Yen



.




)( ) (
)Floating

 (rate
.



.
(2

)(Foreign Currency Exposure

.
:
)(Transaction Exposure )(Economic Exprosure )(Translation Exposure .1 :
-
- .

.
.2 :

.
.
.3 :
. ) (
.

.
.

.

.
:
) (cash flow
.


. .


21.000.000 ) (
.

. 700
.
won 21.000.000 = 30.000$
--------------------won 700/$
30 .
30 won 720
$ 29.167
won 5/650 .$32.309
.
.1 :
) (Natural Hedging
) (Contractual Hedging

.

.
:
.

) (Export Earnings ) (Export
) (Imports
. ) (Forward constract

) (30 .
.
) (Forward Hedging
% 50
.% 56
.

.
- 2 )(Speculation

.


.......

) (
(...
- 3 )(Currency risk sharing

.

.
.


.

. won/120 won 130
30 ) (
.
110won
.
won 10
.won 115
(8 )(Economic Exposure

.
.
(9 )(International Diversification
.
: .
)(Diversification of Operations



.
)(Diversification fo Financing
.
.


.

 )(Translation Exposure

)
.(Consolidated
.
(10 )(Interest Rate and Currency Swaps


.
.
.


.

Primary Export as an Engine of Growth :

.

. .

.

.
Improved Factor Utilization :

.

) (1 - 10
.



) (A ) (B ) .(1 - 10
)
(
.

. 1 - 10 D E
.

 )( -
.

.

.


.
Hlamyint

.
" " vent for surplus
) ( 1



.

Kikuyu

) (Javanese

.


.


.


Expanded Factor Endowments :


.

Plantation Agriculture Standard oil
British Petroleum - Anacoda Alcoa
Lever Brothers and Firestone United Fruit
1

)Hla Myint, "The Classical Theory of International Trade and The Underdeveloped Countries", Economic Jornal 68 (1959
: 317 -370

 .
.

.
.


) (6 )
(
. .

.

.
.


.

. consumption
linkage
mass-produced
.


plantation

:

.


.

.
Linkage effects

.

. Hirschman
((5

6

Micheal Roemer, "Fishing for Growth : Export-Led Development in Pru, 1950-1967 "(Cambridj, ass : Harvard
University Press, 1970.
)(5
Albert O, Hirschman, The Strategy of Economic Development (New Haven : Yale University Press, 1958, Chapter6.


.

)
(
. " "


.

- - - -
.


) (7


.

.

.

.

.

) (
.

. ((8

Barriers to Primary Export Led Growth

7 .
- . :
Albert Fish Low. "American Railroads and the Transformation of the Antebellum Economy" (Cambridge,Mass:Harvard
university Press, 1965), and Robert W.Fogel, "Railroads as an Analogy of the Space Effort: Some Economic Aspects" in
Bruce Mazlish (ed.) , Space Program: Ax Exploration in Historical Analogy (Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1965).
(8

Staple theory
. :
Robert Baldwin, Economic Devolopment and Export Growth : A Study of Northern Rhodesia, 1920 1960 (Los Angelos :
university of California Press, 1966) : Douglas C. North, Location theroy and regional Economic Growth, Journal of
political Economy 63 (1955) : 243 58 : Michael Roemer, Fishing for Growth: and Melville H. Watkins, A Staple Theory
of Economic Growth ; Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Sicence 29 (1963) : 141 58.
Albert Hirschman :
A Genralized Lineage Approach to Development, with Special Reference to Staples in Manning Nash (ed.), Essys an
Economic Development and cultural Change (Chicage : University of Chicago Press, 1977) pp. 67.98


:
.

.
Sluggish Demand Growth


.
.


.((9 Engels Law

) ( .

.


.

.

.


. .
1949
1958


((10
.

%42 1930 %30 1973
((11

%5
1960 1973
.
)(9

An Early and Articulate proponent of this view is Ragnar Nurkse, Equilibrium Growth in the Worls Economy
(Cambridge, Mass : Harvard University Press, 1961), Chapters 10 & 11.
)(10
Anne P Carter, Change in the Structure of the American Economy, 1949 to 1958 and 1962, Review of Econmics
and Statistics 49 (1967) : 209-24.
)(11
World Bank, World Tables 1976 and 1980 (Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University


%3 .%1





.
:
%5
1921 1977 .((12
.
.
) .(19

.


.

.




.
Declining
Terms
of
Trade

Raul Prebish
Hans Singer((13

)World Bank Commodity Price Forecasis ( Washington, D.C : May 1979

United Ntions (Raul Prebisch) The Economic Development of Latin America and Its

)(12
)(13

 :
%
0,3 .1960


1960 .1980

.

.

(Income terms of trade (Tx
.
) (Qx Ti = Pi Qi /Pm = Tn
Qx
.
) (3 - 10
) Q1 ( ) Q2( P1
P2 .

) (4-10
) P1 P2 Q1 . ( Q2


)
(price taker

. Mac Bean
1986 1957
correlation
( (14
).(4 - 10




.
.
Knudson and
Parnes .
:
. :

.

.((10


Alasdair1, MacBean, Export Instability and Economic Development (London : George Allen and Unwin, 1966), pp, 46-

) (14

48
)(10

ibd, pp 34-52, Odin Knudsen and Andrew Pernes, Trade Instability and Economic Development (Lexington, Mass :
Health Lexington Books, 1975), pp. 19-30.



-

. .

:
.



.((16
) (

.
.
.
) (
.((17
.

) ( .
RR ) ( 5 - 10 trade off
.
.

risk-avoiding )
(A .
A B


.

.
1960 .



)(16

The work of F.G Adams and J.R. Behrman, Commodity Exports and Economic Development : The Commodity
Problem and Policy in Developing Countries: An Integrated Econnometic Investigation (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath,
1982), points to a negligible effect of export instability on growth. Gobind Nankani, "Development Problems of Non-fuel
Mineral Exporting Countries, "Finances and Development 17, no. 1( March 1980) : 6 - 10, provides structural reasons for
believing that fluctuating export earning do harm the development efforts of these countries.
)(17
Knudsen and Parnes, Trade Instability, pp. 81 - 128, Chapter 13 of this text has a fuller treatment of saving and the
permanent income typothesis.

.
OPEC
. OPEC
.1973
- -
)(
.
.
" " ZERO SUM GAME
) ( ) ( .


.

Commodity Agreement to stabilize Prices
1974
) NIEO) New International Economic order
United Nations Conference on Trade
(and Development (UNCTAD
.

buffer stock
18 :
) (

.

- )(
)( -
.

.
.
:

.


.



.


.

. )
(NIEO
.

. -
10 -
.



Jere Behrman
((18 .UNCTAD


Compensatory Financing Facility
Stabex
Lome Convention

) (
.
.

1980 996 .
Ineffective Linkages


linkages -
- inclaves

.
)(18

Jere R Behrman, Development, the International Economic Order and Commodity Agreements (Reading Mass AddisonWesley, 1978). Chapter 3, provides an analytical treatment of commodity agreements and summarizes the conditions under
which stable process will stabilize or destabilize revenues. On pages 87-90 he reports his conclusions that UNCTAD's
scheme would ether stabilize revenues or have no impact on their variability.


. .


.

.
. fiscal
linkage
.



.
:



diversified.




.

.

"" .
) (6 - 10
.

)
)
( (.


) (
.
. (1) :
.

.
) (2 ) (3


.


.
)(35

) (Xm ) (Xt

)( Xn
)
(35

.
avec over valued )
( . 6 - 15
-
) ( 1 .


.
\ .
,
\
\
- Dutch Disease -
- ) Kuwait Effect
( .

.


) ) (7-51 ) ( 6-51
) (53
XT XN
) (
.
) (12
.



.